CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
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CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
John B. Alexander, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow
Joint Special Operations University
PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINARJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Arlington, Virginia
13 April 2005
FUTURE WAR:NLW in 21st Century WarfareSt. Martin’s Press, 1999
WINNING THE WARSt. Martin’s PressJuly 2003
Contact: Email: [email protected], (702) 804-5575
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THE WORLD IS NOT A SAFER PLACE
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THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION
THERE ARE WARS ON:POVERTY
CANCER
DRUGS
WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR
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CURRENT CONFLICT - ASSUMPTIONS
• The Global War on Terror (GWOT) lacks specificity
• Two models of war – ours is wrong
• Competing values prevents us from winning
• World War X (WW X) has begun
• Clash of civilizations
• WW X is religious
• We do not understand the threat
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TWO MODELS OF WAR
PHILOSOPHICAL(JIHAD)
VNATION-STATE
OURS MAY BE
ANACHRONISTIC
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THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES
GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR WAR ON DRUGS
WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN
SPENT $0.5TROI = 0
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DICHOTOMIES OF FUTURE CONFLICT
Physical Deterrence and Defeat
Philosophical Conversion/Subjugation
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Fallujah - America's hollow victory
IS PERCEPTION REALITY???
SHUJAAT
Chemical weapons lab found in Fallujah
WE ARE LOSINGTHIS WAR
25 Nov 04
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WHAT DO THEY SEE
Israeli Terrorism
Woman Searched
Israeli Assassination Boys Torment Woman
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TYPES OF FUTURE WARS
• Overt War• Enduring Freedom• Iraqi Freedom
• Covert War• Afghanistan • Central America• Africa
• Outsourced War• Executive Outcomes• International Security Firms
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KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE CONFLICT
• DEVOLUTION OF NATION-STATE STATUS
• Redefining America
• POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF THIRD WORLD
• Near exponential vs impact of famine and disease
• POLITICALIZATION OF EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS
• Secular vs Religious Education
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•GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM INSTABILITY
• Global Warming – Changing Weather – Water
• PHILOSOPHICAL INCOMPATIBILITIES
• Fundamentalism (predominantly Islamic) vs the world
• UNSUSTAINABLE LEGAL CONSTRAINTS
• Anachronistic – Ponderous - Incongruent
KEY ISSUES CONTINUED
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CONUNDRUMS OF CONFLICT
• Physical force will not resolve conflict
• Philosophical differences irreconcilable
• Political correctness reigns
• Terrorism treated as street crime
• Unwillingness to kill viewed as weakness
• What to do with prisoners in war without end
• Anachronistic treaties as rule of law
• Retroactive consideration/application of law
• Responsibility pushed to lowest common denominator
• War in realtime on television
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WINNING CONUNDRUM
SECURITY VS PERSONAL RIGHTS
WHEN THREATENED WE WILL CHOOSE SECURITY
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NLWS ARE COMING OF AGE
BUT THE NAYSAYERS PERSIST
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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A DECADE OF CONFLICT
AFGHANISTAN
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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WHAT NEW ARMS RACE???
$250M ea
$9B
$4B ea/ $22B Life Cycle 10 Tanks = all NLWs
WAR $5B/Mo
WORLD NLW $50M/Yr
Non-Lethal Weapons are 0.012% of US DOD Budget
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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NLWS AND TORTURE
Monk with torture devices used by Chinese Victoria with instruments of torture
TORTURE IS AN ISSUE OF HUMAN INTENT- NOT DEVICES
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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NLW DEATHS AND INJURIES
More than 110 deaths of children under 6
17 deaths with 125,000 rounds firedProbability of fatality 0.00014
Compared to what????
THE ISSUE IS TRAINING AND SUPERVISION
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR
MOSCOW THEATER
A MATTER OF CHOICE
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INCAPACITATING AGENTS
WHAT YOU DID READ:
- NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI)
- DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS
DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP)
- CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED BY MOSCOW (WASH POST)
- USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE)
WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ:
HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT
WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ONAUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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SUPPRESSING DISSENT
Mexico City
Nepal
Brazil
Watts, CA
Madrid
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SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS
- NLWs make it easier to initiate war
•- NLWs will start a new arms race
•- NLWs may be used as instruments of torture
•- NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries
•- NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents
•- NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent
•- NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use
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HOW GOOD IS GOOD ENOUGH?
Effectiveness (Skin Pain)
Permanent Injury (Eye Trauma)
Serious Injury
Dose
Ris
k o
f In
jury
(%
)
0
100
Effectiveness
Non-Lethality Index (Startle)
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BUT WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO:
• HAVE PACEMAKERS?
• EXTREME HEART CONDITIONS?
• ARE ASTHMATIC?
• ARE VERY OLD?
• ARE BLIND, DEAF MIDGETS WITH PARKINSON’S ?
“Life is tough; it’s tougher when you’re stupid.” John Wayne as SGT John Stryker
Sands of Iwo Jima
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PERCEPTION
THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS
AIN’T IT AWFUL???
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THE WORLD AS SEEN BY PHILOSOPHICAL GROUPS
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THE WORLD AS IT IS
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RECONSIDERATION OF ISSUES
• WHAT PROBLEM ARE YOU SOLVING?
• COMPLAINTS BASED ON EMOTION VS. FACTS
• BLAME TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN PROBLEMS
• CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAVE PEACEFUL PURPOSES
• MORE OPTIONS ARE PREFERABLE TO LESS
• THE RESULTS ARE IN: NLWS ARE NOT A ROAD TO HELL
THE PRIMARY QUESTION SHOULD BE:
COMPARED TO WHAT?
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“There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”
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COMING SOON TO A COMMUNITY NEAR YOU
NLWS: NOW MORE THAN EVER
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FUTURE BATTLEGROUNDS
MADRID
PRAGUE
BERLIN
PARIS
MOSCOW
AND MANY OTHERS
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THE CHALLENGE
Bali 12 Oct 02202 killed
Jakarta 9 Sept 0411 killed
Kathmandu 1 Sep 042 killed
Madrid 3 Mar 05192 killed
Kabul 29 Aug 047 killed
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NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL:WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??