Challenges for Arctic Marine Transport

and the Northern Sea Route

•Rapid Climate Change

•Globalization ~ Arctic Natural Resources

•Regional & Global Geopolitics

•Indigenous Peoples Challenges

Centre for International Law,

National University of Singapore

23 February 2017

Lawson W. Brigham PhD ~ University of Alaska Fairbanks

lwbrigham@alaska.edu

Topics ~ Challenges for Arctic Marine

Transport and the NSR:

Arctic Traffic & Global Links

Changing Arctic Marine Access

NSR & Future Yamal LNG Project

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment

Summary ~ A Plausible Future Maritime

Arctic

NP90 E90 W

180

0

~ 1500 nm

~ 600 nm

Arctic Geography

~ Mostly Ocean

September ice extent, 2015

NSIDC

September ice extent, 2015

NSIDC, AMSA

Maritime Traffic 1 June to 30 November 2013Marine Exchange of Alaska

Maritime Traffic

1 Jan to 31 May 2014

Marine Exchange of Alaska

Arctic Linkages to the Global

Economic System

• International Fishing (10%)

• Hard Minerals ~ Palladium (40%), Nickel (22%),

Diamonds (20%), Platinum (15%), Zinc (10%)

• Estimated Arctic Hydrocarbons ~ Undiscovered Natural

Gas (30%) & Oil (13%)

• Potential: Rare Earths (25%), Coal & Fresh Water

• Global Marine Tourism industry

• Regional Trade to Northern Communities &

Infrastructure Development

U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008

–13% Undiscovered Oil

–30% Undiscovered Natural Gas

–20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids

“Circum-Arctic Resource

Appraisal: Estimates of

Undiscovered Oil and Gas North

of the Arctic Circle”

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/

New Arctic Resource Discoveries

New Arctic Resource Discoveries

USGS (2008)

Probability of Presence of

Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas

Fields

Coastal Seas

Today’s Maritime Arctic

(200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone)Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic

(After UNCLOS Article 76)

The ILULISSAT Declaration

Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada,

Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA)

27-29 May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland

LOS/UNCLOS Provides ‘Solid Foundation’

‘We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international

legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean.’

(Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000)

Present Sea Ice Retreat ~ Outside the Range

of Model Projections

2007 2008

• 2012

2009

Changing Summer Arctic Sea Ice

Coverage ~ 1979-2012

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extents ~

2007 & 2012

1 January 1 March

1 April 1 June

Winter &

Spring Months

2015 & 2016

• PC 1 ~ Year-round operation in all ice-covered waters

• PC 2 ~ Year-round operation in moderate multi-year ice conditions

• PC 3 ~ Year-round operation in second-year ice which may include multi-

year ice inclusions

• PC 4 ~ Year-round operation in thick first-year ice which may include old ice

inclusions

• PC 5 ~ Year-round operation in medium first-year ice which may include old

ice inclusions

• PC 6 ~ Summer/autumn operation in medium first-year ice which may

include old ice inclusions

• PC 7 ~ Summer/autumn operation in thin first-year ice which may include

old ice inclusions.

** Ice descriptions follow the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sea-

ice nomenclature

IACS Polar Class Ship Descriptions

Septembers

2006-2015

red lines=

Polar Class 6

(e.g. commercial

icebreaking ships)

blue lines=

common open-

water ships

Northwest

Passage: 236

Transits

1906-2015

Northern Sea

Route Transits:

37/2013, 23/2014

Septembers

2040-2059

red lines=

Polar Class 6

(e.g. commercial

icebreaking ships)

blue lines=

common open-

water ships

(“New Trans-Arctic

shipping routes

navigable by

midcentury”, L.C.

Smith and S.R.

Stephenson, PNAS,

2013)

Summer Northern Sea Route Voyages Linking Arctic Russia to

Northern Europe & to the Pacific

12 SEPT

31 AUG

NSR Full Transits:

2011~ 16

2012~ 27

2013~ 37

2014~ 23

2015~ 18

2016~ 18

Data: ANSR

23 JUL

1. Kara Gate strait (~10-40 m)2. Vilkitsky Strait (100-200 m)3. Sannikov Strait (13 m)4. Dmitry Laptev Strait (6.7 m)5. Long Strait (33 m)

r2 = .57Accessible Days vs. Depth

1 2

3

5

4

> 20,000 dwt

Stephenson et al. 2014, Polar Geography

Annual Navigation Season for Polar Class 3 Ships (2013-2027 mean)

Black:

mean

Gray: stdev

Longitude East

Accessib

le

days p

er

year

Barents Sea

Kara Sea

Laptev Sea

East Siberian

Sea

Chukchi Sea

high avg/

low stdev

high avg/

high

stdev

low avg/

high

stdev

low avg/

low stdev

Barents Kara Laptev East Siberian Chukchi

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

rM

ay

Longitude East

Polar Class 3 shipsBarents Kara Laptev E. Siberian Chukchi

Open-water shipsBarents Kara Laptev E. Siberian Chukchi

Accessible days per month (DJFMAM) in Russian Arctic Coastal Seas, 40-190°E (2013-2027 mean)

Jun

eJu

lyA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

v

Longitude East

Accessible days per month (JJASON) in Russian Arctic Coastal Seas, 40-190°E (2013-2027 mean)Polar Class 3 ships

Barents Kara Laptev E. Siberian ChukchiOpen-water ships

Barents Kara Laptev E. Siberian Chukchi

24

YAMAL Arc7 LNG Carrier PROJECT

25

Yamal Project: LNGC fleet plan

SUMMER （July～mid Nov）

・ARC7 15 LNGCs to Asia via NSR transit. Distance：4,900 miles One voyage：20 days @10 knots

Yamal LNG Terminal (Savetta port)

WINTER （mid Nov～June）

・ARC7 15 LNGCs shuttle to Europe・Light ice-class LNGCs (ARC4 or less,

up to 11 ships) to Asia Distance：13,700 miles One voyage：55 days @10 knots

Trans Shipment in Europe (Zeebrugge port)

LNG ExportLNG Import

CO2 emissions on Arctic Ocean Route

will be reduced by about

30%

YAMAL ARC7 LNGCs - Vessel Specification (1)

26

• Principal ParticularsARC7 LNGC (15 vessels): Principal Particulars

Builder & Delivery year DSME Shipyard Korea, Delivery Year: 2016:(1), 2017:(4), 2018:(5), 2019:(5)

Ship Owners Sovcomflot (1), Teekay (6), Dynagas (5), MOL (3)

Classification Society Class BV & RMRS

Ship Dimension Loa 299m x B 50m x D 26.5m x Ice draft 12.0 m

Cargo Tank GTT No96 Membrane, 172,600 m3 (100% filled)

Propulsion AZIPOD 3 units (DFDE Generator 6 sets)

Ice Class RMRS ARC-7 (1st year ice, 210cm thick), Winterization -52 deg.C.

Double Acting LNG Carrier

Multiple option of transit routesAccess to potential energy resource in Arctic ocean

Arctic water accounts:17% of discovered natural gas in the world30% of undiscovered natural gas in the world

＜Outstanding＞•Ice navigation Crew training•Crew health: Polar night/Polar day•Infrastructures: SAR station(Search & Rescue), Repair dockyard, Airport•Custom clearance in Russia •Bathymetry data (insufficient navigation chart)•Ice map provider - Weather forecasting system

27

Cargo Tonnage Along the Northern Sea Route(Source: Rosatomflot)

(Unit: kilo DW tons)

Yong Sheng

“Of the 18 vessels going transit on the NSR in 2015, ten were Russian, two were Chinese, one Dutch and one Swedish. The Chinese general cargo carrier «Yong Sheng», which shipped twice along the route, alone accounted for more than 75 percent of the 2015 NSR cargo” Carmel (2016)

http://www.thebarentsobserver.com/industry/2016/02/historical-low-northern-sea-route

This does not carry global international trade on any scale

This does

Carmel (2016)

Maersk Triple E

Type: Container ship

Tonnage: 165,000 DWT

Displacement: 55,000 tonnes (empty)[1]

Length: 400 m (1,312 ft)

Beam: 59 m (194 ft)

Draft: 16 m (52 ft)

Carmel (2016)

Arctic Council ~ Intergovernmental Forum

AMSA Lead Countries for PAME ~ Canada, Finland & USA

AMSA Focus ~ Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection

13 Major Workshops & 14 Town Hall Meetings

Key Challenge ~ Many Non-Arctic Stakeholders

2004 – 2009

Arctic Ministers’ Approval 29 April 2009 ~

Negotiated Recommendations & Text

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary

with Recommendations

• Arctic Marine Geography

Climate & Sea Ice

• History

• Governance

• Current Use/Database

• Scenarios to 2020 & 2050

• Human Dimensions

• Environmental Impacts

● Infrastructure

www.pame.is

AMSA Key Uncertainties for Future

Arctic Marine Transportation

• Stable legal climate

• Radical change in global trade

dynamics

• Climate change is more disruptive

sooner

• Safety of other routes

• Socio-economic impact of global

weather changes

• Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)***

• Major Arctic shipping disasters***

• Limited windows of operation

(economics)

• Rapid climate change

• Maritime insurance industry

• China, Japan & Korea become

Arctic maritime nations

• Transit fees

• Conflict between indigenous &

commercial use

• Arctic maritime enforcement

• Escalation of Arctic maritime

disputes

• Shift to nuclear energy***

• New resource discovery

• World trade patterns

• Catastrophic loss or change in

Suez or Panama Canals

• Global agreements on

construction rules and standards

unstable

& ad-hoc

stable &

rules-based

less demand

more demand

Arctic Race Arctic Saga

Polar Lows Polar Preserve

GOVERNANCE

RE

SO

UR

CE

S

&

TR

AD

EHigh demand and unstable

governance set the stage for

an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic

wealth and resources.

High demand and stable

governance lead to a healthy

rate of development, includes

concern for preservation of

Arctic ecosystems & cultures.

Low demand and unstable

governance bring a murky

and under-developed future

for the Arctic.

Low demand & stable

governance slow development

in the region while introducing

an extensive eco-preserve with

stringent “no-shipping zones”.

AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007

The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050

Scenarios on the Future of

Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050

Enhancing

Arctic Marine

Safety

Protecting

Arctic People

and the

Environment

Building the

Arctic Marine

Infrastructure

AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS (17) ~ THEMES

AMSA Recommendations

I. Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety

A. Linking with International Organizations **[IMO, WMO, IHO, IALA]

B. IMO Measures for Arctic Shipping **[IMO Polar Code]

C. Uniformity of Arctic Shipping Governance

D. Strengthening Passenger Ship Safety in Arctic Waters

E. Arctic SAR Instrument **[Arctic State 2011 Arctic SAR Binding Agreement]

II. Protecting Arctic People and the Environment

A. Survey of Arctic Indigenous Marine Use **[Ongoing]

B. Engagement with Arctic Communities **[Ongoing]

C. Areas of Heightened Ecological and Cultural Significance **[AMAP/CAFF/SDWG

Identification of Arctic marine areas of heightened & cultural significance]

D. Specially Designated Arctic Marine Areas

E. Protection from Invasive Species

AMSA Recommendations (Continued)

F. Oil Spill Prevention **[AC TF Arctic Marine Cooperation]

G. Addressing Impacts on Marine Mammals **[IWC Engagement/Workshop]

H. Reducing Air Emissions

III. Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure

A. Addressing the Infrastructure Deficit

B. Arctic Marine Traffic Systems **[Enhanced AIS Monitoring]

C. Circumpolar Environmental Response Capacity **[Arctic State Binding 2013 Arctic Oil

Spill Preparedness & Response Agreement]

D. Investing in Hydrographic, Meteorological & Oceanographic Data

Amendments to SOLAS, MARPOL & STCW

Commercial Carriers & Passenger Ships (500 tons or more)

I. SOLAS Amendments:

• Polar Ship’s Structural & Equipment Standards (Ice Classes: PC1/ PC7)

• Marine Safety and Lifesaving Equipment

• Training & Experience of Polar Mariners

• Polar Ship Certificate (Flag State ~ Ship Classes A,B,C)

• Polar Water Operations Manual (Ship Specific)

II. Environmental Rules ~ MARPOL Annexes:

• Annex I ~ Oil & Oily Mixtures (No Discharge)

• Annex II ~ Noxious Liquid Substances (No Discharge)

• Annex IV ~ Sewage

• Annex V ~ Food Waste/Garbage

Elements of the IMO Mandatory Polar CodeProcess ~ 1993 to 1 January 2017

IMO Guidelines &Mandatory Polar Code: Maximum Extent

of Antarctic Waters Application (IMO)

IMO Guidelines & Mandatory Polar Code: Maximum Extent

of Arctic Waters Application (IMO)

IMO Polar Code: Maximum Extent of Arctic Waters Application

(U.S. Department of State)

Summary ~ A Plausible Future Maritime Arctic

• Peaceful & Arctic State Cooperation

• More Engagement of the Non-Arctic States

Summary ~ A Plausible Future Maritime Arctic

• Peaceful & Arctic State Cooperation

• More Engagement of the Non-Arctic States

• Storehouse of Vast Natural Resources: Require Marine

Transport Systems & Support Infrastructure

• Several Arctic States: Natural Resources Critical to

Their National Economies (Russia, Norway, Greenland)

Summary ~ A Plausible Future Maritime Arctic

• Peaceful & Arctic State Cooperation

• More Engagement of the Non-Arctic States

• Storehouse of Vast Natural Resources: Require Marine

Transport Systems & Support Infrastructure

• Several Arctic States: Natural Resources Critical to

Their National Economies (Russia, Norway, Greenland)

• Profound Climate Change Influencing the Planet: Continued Sea Ice Retreat & New Marine Access

• Unlikely to Retool Global Trade Routes, But

Increasing Marine Operations

Summary ~ A Plausible Future Maritime Arctic

• Peaceful & Arctic State Cooperation

• More Engagement of the Non-Arctic States

• Storehouse of Vast Natural Resources: Require Marine

Transport Systems & Support Infrastructure

• Several Arctic States: Natural Resources Critical to

Their National Economies (Russia, Norway, Greenland)

• Profound Climate Change Influencing the Planet: Continued Sea Ice Retreat & New Marine Access

• Unlikely to Retool Global Trade Routes, But

Increasing Marine Operations

• Increasing Arctic Ocean Protection/Safety Measures

Thank You & Questions