Cgyitdecisions june 2011
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Scenario Planningand IT Decision Making
Dr Chris [email protected]
IT Decisions ConferenceJune 2011
www.samiconsulting.co.uk© SAMI Consulting
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2© SAMI Consulting
• Our offer– To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and
implementation
• Consulting, backed up by executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”
• “You can never plan the future by the past”– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
SAMI
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3© SAMI Consulting
• Formed in 1989• Until 1999 based at St Andrews University• Now virtual, owned by staff• Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society• Over 200 projects delivered in 21 countries• Celebrated our 25th virtually over the year
• People:• 11 Fellows, Director level experience in major organisations, public and
private sectors: consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership
• 8 Principals, Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors: experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development
• Also 56 Associates with specialist expertise e.g. Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs, renewables, infrastructure, transportFunctional specialists: risk, innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----
Who we are
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4© SAMI Consulting
• Contingency planning
• Scenarios
• Systems thinking
• Complexity theory
• Ethnographic Futures
Futures Thinking
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Imagine 2011 in 1981
Technology• WWW• Mobile Phones• iPOD/PAD/Phone• DAB• DTT,HDTV,3DTV• Wii,Xbox360,PS3
• BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2, Bullet trains, FTTH, Flying cars…
What about?• Chelsea FC owned by a
Russian• BRICs• Global Terrorism• Climate Change• Bollywood• HIV/AIDS
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6© SAMI Consulting
• 20% will happen as consensus• 15% will happen but slower than consensus• 5% will happen faster than consensus• 15% will be superceded before it happens• 10% stalls/disappoints• 20% just doesn’t happen• 15% is off Radar
My experience over 30 years
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Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk© SAMI Consulting©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Source: Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons, Patterning of Hope, Triarchy Press, 2013
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• Standards Wars• WIIFM• Infrastructure lags• Long-term capacity developments
Repeating problems
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• Desired ( my plan)• Desirable ( Plan B)• Plausible ( time to rethink?)• Consensus ( my contrarian plan)• Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)
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What type of future?
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• Modern Myths• This time it’s different…• Putting New in front of everything..• Everything has a history• Revolution or cohort effects• Roadblocks (IPv6?)
Beware….
© SAMI Consulting 10www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.
The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”
A Social Media guru
• While at the same time...• Predicted 100%
compound growth for 5 years
• All existing services would still be there and free
• Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years
• Governments wouldn’t regulate...
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Unpicking Assumptions
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Cavaliers
RoundheadsRight
Wrong
Repulsive Romantic
1066 and All That
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BroadVision
?FocussedTheme
HighCredibility
Low Credibility
Wrong Right
The futurists dilemma
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EconomicChange
Strategic Response
cyclical
structural
Reactive Proactive
Market Step Change
Sitting Tight Mopping up
Niche Portfolio
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Dimensions of the current challenge
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EconomicChange
Strategic Response
cyclical
structural
Reactive Proactive
Market Step Change
Sitting Tight Mopping up
Niche Portfolio
New Entrant
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Dynamics of the current challenge
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Do we know whereWe are going?
Do we knowHow to getThere?
NO YES
NO
YES
TASK:OperationalManagement
TASK:DirectionSetting
TASK:ProcessDevelopment
TASK:ConceptCreation
After Eddie Obeng
Best practice
Next practice Emerging practice
Scaling practice
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Problem types
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
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Whose problem?
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
IdeasTrack record
Knowledge
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What value?
© SAMI Consulting
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Low
Low
High
HighUncertainty
Com
plex
ity
Academic/Expert
Consultant
PoliticalSystem
Wisdom ofThe Crowds
ThinkTank
Consultancy squeezed as limited track record
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During step change
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“In the Future blind people willbe able to drive cars”
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Timing
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• Probability 0.9 with some 0.2• Today with Resources: 1-3 years• In practice: 3-10 years• In reality: 10-100 years
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Results
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• Today!!!• Prisoners of Language• Timing• Unintended consequences• Sources of Innovation• Ask the wrong question/people?• Culture• Events
22www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Why do we get it wrong?
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• Societies taboos• Bubbles• Poor data for emerging trends• Examples
– Police– Paedophiles– Education– International/global interconnectivity
23www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Not understanding today…
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• Inevitability-Predictability• Risk and uncertainty• Unforseen barriers• Social factors• Long-term skill developments
24www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Timing
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Manufacturer Active Process
User Active process
Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT
Source of Innovation
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• Open Innovation has a 200 year history• Innovation with lead users preceded the
internet• Professional solve their own problems• Big shift in computing is that consumers
not industry in the driving seat.
Innovation
© SAMI Consulting 26www.samiconsulting.co.uk
• 1,000,000 cars• People will always want shoes• Classroom of the Future• Library with no books• 5 Computers
29www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Prisoners of Language
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“ What do you teach a child at 5 years oldso that they will be IT Literate at 20?”
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Who do you ask?
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• The different disciplines involved• The hardware doesn’t exist• The software hasn’t been written• Some of the key companies haven’t yet been
formed
So who do you ask?
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Core to the problem..
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• Specialists and generalists• Personal credibility• Tolerance of uncertainty• Story telling• Leadership
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Organisational culture
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• 9/11• BSE• Coalition Government• Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......
• BLACK SWANS
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Events
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• Web 2.0 bubble?• IPv4 to IPv6 transition• Sustainability of
Free/Freemium..• Impact of Regulation, e.g.
EU• Privacy, security• Business models?• Interdependencies...
• IPR regimes• Everything has a
history...?• Demographics....• Energy Security• Public/Private Clouds
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Uncertainties Today
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It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law
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Hofstadter’s Law
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Any Questions?My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20
Twitter: @chris_yapp
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Thank You!
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