CGE TRAINING MATERIALS - MITIGATION ASSESSMENT MODULE D

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Mitigation Options, Issues and Barriers by Sector

CGE TRAINING MATERIALS -MITIGATION ASSESSMENT

MODULE D

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Module Objectives and Expectations

1. Objective: Provide participants with a review of the key sectors related to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation as well as cross-sectoral opportunities for GHG mitigation, including:

– Emissions sources, trends, and drivers by sector and region– Mitigation technologies and strategies– Policies and measures for their adoption and implementation – Common barriers and potential solutions.

The module also offers background, examples and resources for identifying, analyzing and elaborating mitigation actions in national communications.

2. Expectations: Participants will have a broad but sound understanding of the key sectors and cross-cutting opportunities for GHG mitigation actions.

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Module Outline

1. General Considerations2. Sectoral Review and Discussion

a) Energy Supply (Electricity Generation)b) Transportc) Buildingsd) Industrye) Agriculturef) Forestryg) Waste Management

3. Mitigation from a Cross-Sectoral Perspective

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MODULE D1

General Considerations

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Fundamental Distinctions in Mitigation Actions

• Technologies and practices that reduce GHG emissions:– Efficiency (demand, supply)– Substitution (fuels, feedstock, products)– End-of-pipe (carbon capture and storage-CCS)– Practices (farming, land clearing, etc.).

• Policies and instruments that lead to the use of these technologies and practices:– Economic and financial instruments (e.g. taxes and incentives, markets,

trade policy)– Regulatory approaches (e.g. standards, required practices)– Information (e.g. labelling, campaigns) – Capacity building (e.g. institutions, skilled workforce).

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Mitigation Potential and Barriers

• Many barriers may need to be overcome on the path from theoretical to actual use of lower-emission technologies and practices

• Many policy tools are available to help overcome these barriers, and must be tailored to national and local circumstances.

Source: IPCC (2001) TAR WGIII

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Facilitating Energy Efficiency

• New investments in power, industry, transport and building infrastructure can be substantially more efficient than existing stock

• Economic growth is powering a rapid increase in these sectors, and associated emissions

• Almost all countries exhibit declining energy intensity trends

• Most countries have initiatives to promote energy efficiency in these sectors

• Technology integration, support, and financing risks are high

• Adoption is driven by quality and productivity increases. Photo source: Courtesy of

Emerson Process Management

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General Considerations for Mitigation Strategies

• Overcoming barriers requires a wide variety of policies, measures and instruments.

• Taking advantage of capital stock turnover and periods of rapid social change can minimize disruption and mitigation costs.

• National responses to climate change can be more effective if deployed as a portfolio of policy instruments to limit or reduce GHG gas emissions.

• Effectiveness can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated with the non-climate objectives of national and sectoral policy (e.g., sustainable development).

• Coordinated actions among countries and sectors may help to reduce mitigation costs, address competitiveness concerns and carbon leakage.

• Earlier action can increase flexibility in moving towards stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

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Opportunities for Overcoming Barriers

• Synergies between competitiveness and GHG mitigation (e.g. when GHG mitigation could reduce production costs for industry)

• Good communication strategies (marketing) to encourage consumer acceptance of new technologies

• Better communication among firms, between firms and users, or universities or government labs

• Creation of economic, regulatory and social incentives for reducing GHG emissions

• Changes in the market and legislative context can also provide opportunities for innovation

• Availability of appropriate financial tools.

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Examples of Inter-American Development Bank Projects in Various Sectors

• The IDB supports projects related to climate change mitigation through four key avenues:– CLIMATE FINANCING– LOW CARBON AND RESILIENT POLICY AND REGULATIONS– INSITUTIONAL CAPACITY INSIGHTS AND TRAINING– ACCESS TO KNOWLEDGEInformation of specific projects can be found on their website

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Mitigation Led by Youth: The Caribbean Youth Climate Change Mitigation Project

• A project of the Caribbean Youth Environment Network (CYEN) that covers 16 territories in the Caribbean

• Objective is to raise awareness among young people about the impacts of climate change on development

• Project components include providing simple resources to understand climate change impacts in the Caribbean, identifying efforts that have been made to combat these impacts, identifying entrepreneurs engaging in mitigation and adaptation, and promoting energy auditing and energy saving measures.

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Brazil’s Green Growth Plan

• The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) supports developing countries in building green growth economic development strategies.

• Focus on South‐South experience and knowledge exchange by experts and policymakers worldwide.

Green growth plan in Brazil:• Objective to support low‐carbon assessment in four key sectors:

– Forestry: Analyzed value chains showing job creation potential in sustainable activities (e.g., acai, commercial reforestation)

– Agriculture: Key GHG abatement areas include grassland management, enteric emissions and crop nutrient management, and reduced tillage.

– Steel: Initiatives include energy efficiency measures, use of low‐carbon content‐ and/or more efficient raw materials.

– Electric power: Initiatives such as replacement of fossil fuel‐fired power plants with renewable sources.

Source: GGGI, “Green Growth Planning GGGI Country Programs ”

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Source: “MAPS. Mitigation Actions in Developing Countries: Case study: Chile”

Examples of Mitigation Initiatives in Chile

Initiatives are in different stages of development in terms of developing nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs). However, all have defined clear goals, estimated GHG reduction targets, and have developed preliminary proposals to achieve them.• Transport:

– Energy efficiency (balance between system load and passengers)– Promoting zero and low-emission vehicles– Promoting sustainable modal shift programme (private to public, motorized to non-motorized)– Improvement in traffic management.

• Agriculture:– Sustainable management and recuperation of native forest– Promoting reforestation in areas with degraded soils and those suitable for forestry.

• Energy:– Energy efficiency in copper mining– Use of electric motors for industry and mining– Increase renewables in energy grid– Improvements in processes in the cement industry– Policy for developing geothermal energy.

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Ethiopia’s Green Growth Plan• Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) supports developing countries in building

green economic development strategies.• Focus on South-South experience and knowledge exchange by experts and

policymakers worldwide.

Green growth plan in Ethiopia:• Assess country’s emissions, identify GHG mitigation opportunities, assess GHG

abatement potential and cost, develop green growth road map.• Developed Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) plan reviewing opportunities in

seven sectors: electric power, green cities and buildings, forestry, livestock, soil, industry and transport.

• Green economy plan based on four pillars:– Improving crop and livestock production practices to increase food security and farmer income, while

reducing emissions– Protecting and re-establishing forests for economic and ecosystem services– Expanding electricity generation from renewable energy– Leapfrogging to modern, energy-efficient technologies in transport, industrial, and buildings sectors.

Source: GGGI, “Green Growth Planning GGGI Country Programs ”

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MODULE D2

Sectoral Review and Discussion

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Note (for presenters) on Sectoral review (Module D2)

• The material developed for this module includes a review of key trends, drivers, mitigation options, barriers, challenges and analysis resources for each of seven individual sectors

• The full set of slides will likely exceed what is appropriate for presentation purposes, as a good fraction of the slides are “hidden”

• Presenters are encouraged to tailor (by hiding and un‐hiding slides) the presentation to specific venues and participant interests.

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MODULE D2A

Energy Supply (Electricity Generation)

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Energy Supply

• Key mitigation challenges:– Meet increasing demand

for energy services while minimizing environmental impacts

– Dominance of fossil fuels in electricity generation

– High costs of low-carbon technologies

– Long lifetime of capital stock.

New supercritical coal plant

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Global Energy Resources and Flows

• “The wide range of energy sources and carriers that provide energy services need to offer long-term security of supply, be affordable and have minimal impact on the environment.… three… goals [that] often compete.”

Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII

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Global Energy Supply: Past Trends

• Fossil fuel energy supply and use account for ~70% of total GHG emissions

• Coal and oil have been the key primary energy sources for the past 3-4 decades

• Rapid growth in coal use since 2000.

World primary energy consumption


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• Total energy demand expected to grow 1.6% annually.• Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, fossil fuels remain

dominant.

Global Energy Supply: Projections (IEA WEO 2011)

Source: IEA (2011) WEO

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Addressing Energy Supply in a Mitigation Assessment

Mitigation assessments tend to focus on energy supply and choice of fuels and carriers from a sectoral perspective:• In most countries, electricity generation is the principal source of emissions

and the main focus of mitigation assessment for energy supply.• Emissions from fossil fuel production (e.g., coal-bed methane), processing

(refinery technologies), and transport and distribution (T&D ) (pipeline management) are often addressed as part of industrial sector analysis.

• Biomass energy – both traditional and modern – is typically addressed in the relevant consuming sectors: biofuels for transportation, biomass fuels for electricity generation, traditional biomass in residential and agriculture, etc.

• Fuel switching and development of new energy carriers (e.g. hydrogen for vehicles) are typically examined in consuming sectors (e.g. transport).

• However, there is no standard and countries should feel free to take approaches that are appropriate to national institutions and circumstances.

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Energy Supply Mitigation Technologies

• Renewable energy:– Hydropower– Wind energy – Biomass and bioenergy– Geothermal – Photovoltaics (PV)– Solar thermal electric– Solar heating and cooling– Ocean energy

• Advanced conversion technologies (improved efficiencies) and carriers:

– Supercritical and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal technologies

– Combined cycle gas turbine plants– Combined heat and power (CHP) systems – Hydrogen fuel cells– Synthetic fuels from carbon sequestration

• Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)

• Efficiency improvements at existing power stations

• Loss reduction in transmission and distribution of electricity and natural gas

• Electricity storage (to enable greater penetration of intermittent renewables)

• Improved fuel production and transport:

– Recovery of coalmine methane – Coal beneficiation and refining– Improved gas and oil flaring

• Decentralized energy systems• Nuclear power.

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Costs Decline with Research and Deployment

• Technology development and learning experience for PV, wind and bioethanol systems have led to cost reductions of 20% for every doubling of capacity, once the technology has matured.


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Policy Instruments

• Market-based instruments:– Tariff structures (e.g. feed-in tariffs)– Taxes and subsidies– Social cost pricing of energy services

• Strict command-and-control regulation:– Specifying the use of specific fuels or technologies– Performance and emission standards

• Hybrid measures:– Emission trading systems– Renewable portfolio standards

• Voluntary agreements and actions by industry• Research, development and demonstration activities• Removal of institutional barriers.

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Mitigation Costs in the Electricity Sector (2010-2020)

Source: IEA (2010) ETP

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Energy Supply: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• Energy prices• Inconsistency in evaluation of energy

costs• Lack of adequate financial support• Institutional transformation and reforms• Legal and regulatory frameworks• Lack of information• Decision-making process and behaviour• Social and cultural constraints• Capital availability• Lack of internalization of environmental

externalities.

Overcoming barriers:• Multilateral cooperation for regional

interconnections, hydropower and other renewable energy development

• Smaller unit sizes can help overcome the capital availability barriers (e.g. nuclear)

• Improved technology transfer through regional co-operation in research and development and commercial contracting

• Harmonizing diffusion strategies with local physical, human, and institutional resources

• Building local technical and institutional capabilities.

• Better grid access for industrial CHP and other distributed electricity sources.

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Applying Policy Instruments to Specific Technologies


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Energy Supply Policies in Place

Source: IEA Policies and Measures Databases

• Energy policies and measures in Africa as per IEA database. as at 25 June 2021

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CARICOM’s Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Programme (CREDP)

• An initiative of the Energy Ministers in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) region.• Goal was to remove barriers to increased use of renewable energy, thereby reducing

fossil fuel dependence and GHG emissions.• During its lifetime, CREDP achievements included the following activities and outputs:

Contributed to nine legally binding instruments to promote RE and EE, like energy policies, legislation and feed-in-regulations in six CARICOM Member States.

Elaborated more than 60 pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, technical specifications, engineering designs, publication and energy related reports.

Designed and implemented 20 Projects in seven CARICOM Member States and the Dominican Republic with an overall generation capacity of almost 10 MW.

Contributed to the preparation and/or implementation of more than 25 projects with approx. 150 MW in the areas of Photovoltaic, Wind and Hydropower.

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African Renewable Energy Alliance Initiative (AREI)

• The Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) is an inclusive, transformative, Africa-owned and Africa-led effort to accelerate and scale up the harnessing of the continent’s huge renewable energy potential. Under the mandate of the African Union and endorsed by the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC),the Initiative is set to achieve at least at least 300 GW by 2030.

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Examples of African Development Bank (AfDB) mitigation activities

– The Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) has extended a $1 million grant to help accelerate African countries’ transition to flexible green grids and other clean power solutions ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, scheduled to be held later this year.

– SEFA is an African Development Bank-managed special fund providing catalytic finance for renewable energy. SEFA’s overarching goal is to contribute to universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy services for all in Africa, in line with the Bank’s New Deal on Energy for Africa and Sustainable Development Goal 7.

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Key Resources for Energy Supply Assessment

Links:• Open Energy Info (OpenEI):

http://en.openei.org/• IEA Policies and Measures Databases:

lhttps://www.iea.org/policies

• Enerdata is an independent research and consulting firm specialising in the analysis and modelling of the global energy markets and its drivers. https://www.enerdata.net/publications/reports-presentations/world-energy-trends.html

Key expertise:• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/• International Energy Agency (IEA):

http://iea.org/• World Energy Council:

http://www.worldenergy.org/• The International Renewable Energy Agency

(IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation supporting countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future https://www.irena.org/

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Questions for Discussion

• What policy instruments have had the most significant impact in promoting renewable energy? Improving power plant efficiencies?

• What are some good examples of successes and failures in energy supply policies and technologies?

• How is energy sector planning approached in your country?

• How are GHG mitigation opportunities integrated into this process?

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MODULE D2B

Transport

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Transport

• One the most challenging sectors for GHG mitigation:

– GHG emissions growing more rapidly than any other sector, fastest in developing countries

– Freight transport emissions is growing even more rapidly than passenger

– Much of world’s population without personal vehicles, a situation that is rapidly changing

– Dependence on single resource (95% petroleum)

– Technical and fuel switching solutions for GHG mitigation can face significant barriers.

Source: Guangzhou BRT, www.gzbrt.org

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Transport Energy Use by Region (2007)


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Projected Transport Energy Use by Mode and Region


• As long as transportation remains oil-dependent, GHG emissions will be roughly proportional to energy use.

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Transport: Trends and Drivers

• Transport demand expected to grow with rapid industrializationand higher incomes in developing countries.

• Current trends toward private cars, though alternatives to increase mobility exist (e.g. bus rapid transit).


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Regional Variation in Travel and Mode (2005)

Source: IEA (2009). “Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability.”

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Emissions per Passenger-km by Mode in Developing Countries

Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change (2002). “Transportation in Developing Countries: An Overview of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies.”

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Transport: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies

• Fuel efficiency improvements:– Changes in vehicle and engine design (e.g. hybrid engines, reduced weight and air

resistance)• Less carbon-intensive fuels and technologies:

– Electric vehicles (with low-carbon electricity)– Hydrogen / fuel cell technology (and low-carbon hydrogen sources)– Biofuels– Natural gas, coal-to-liquids

• Mode shifts and land use:– Public/mass transportation systems (e.g. bus rapid transit)– Non-motorized transport (walking and cycling) – Land-use planning (transit-oriented development)

• Transport demand management:– Reducing travel demand (e.g. through land use planning, telecommunications, etc.)

• Operating efficiency improvements:– e.g., eco-driving, increased load factors, improved maintenance, reduced idling, etc.

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Transport: Mitigation Potential in Brazil

Source: ESMAP, “Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study”

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Transport: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• Infrastructure• Lifestyles• Economic development• Patterns of industrial production• Consumer behavior• Status value• Lock-in of technology and infrastructure• Subsidies• Distorted perceptions• Building codes.

Overcoming barriers:• Fuel taxes or charges on road users, including

parking fees, road taxes, license fees, insurance premiums

• Shifting government spending towards public transport and away from private transport.

• Fiscal and regulatory measures and public purchasing aimed at developing larger markets for low- GHG-vehicles

• Encouraging more sustainable transport patterns, avoiding pollution, congestion, higher accident rates, and GHGs associated with cars. Toll rings around big or medium sized cities

• Moving from zoning/car-based transport to multi-function, high-density pedestrian zones

• Combining measures to overcome inertia and lock-in.

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Transport: Analytical Example

G = A x S x I x F

Where:• G: Transportation sector GHG emissions (g CO2)• A: total activity (passenger-km or freight tonne-km)• S: share of total travel by mode (%)• I: modal energy intensity (litres per passenger-km)• F: carbon content of fuel (g CO2 per litre consumed)

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Transport: Key Policies and Mitigation Measures

• Market-based instruments:– Increase in fuel tax – Implement road pricing (vehicle miles travelled (VMT) fee)– Increase parking fees– Pay-as-you-drive insurance– Incentives for mass transport systems – Fiscal incentives and subsidies for alternative fuels and vehicles– Incentives through vehicle taxes and license fees for more efficient

vehicles• Regulatory instruments:

– Fuel economy standards – Vehicle design or alternative fuel mandates

• Direct investment by governments:– Infrastructure (e.g. bicycle and pedestrian, electric charging

stations, transit-oriented development).

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Examples of Proposed Transport Initiatives

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Transport: Key Resources

Links:• GIZ advises partner countries

on the development of a sustainable transport infrastructure.

https://www.giz.de/expertise/html/60157.html• OpenEI:

http://en.openei.org/wiki/Transportation_Assessment_Toolkit

Key expertise:• Institute for Transportation &

Development Policy (ITDP): http://www.itdp.org/

• International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT): http://www.theicct.org/

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Transport: Questions for Discussion

• What are the major drivers of growth in travel and transportation energy use in your country?

• What are the principal barriers to improving vehicle efficiencies (or expanding public transit) and how are they being addressed?

• Are GHG mitigation opportunities integrated into transportation and land-use planning in your country, and if so, how?

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MODULE D2C

Buildings

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Buildings

• Key challenges:– Overcoming market

barriers (e.g., proper incentives, financing, fragmentation of building industry)

– Long lifetimes of infrastructure (over half of current global building stock will still be standing in 2050)

– Reduction potentials and policy leverage on behavior, culture and consumer choice poorly understood.

Source: PassivHaus Institut Darmstadt, “Passivhaus Primer”

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Buildings: Emissions Sources, Trends and Drivers

• Population, household amenities and commercial activity will grow most rapidly in developing countries.

• IEA projects, by 2050…– 67% increase in number of

households– Tripling of service building

area– Greater penetration rate of

existing energy-consuming devices, and increasing demand for new types of energy services.


Global CO2 from building energy use (2004): Two common perspectives.

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Buildings: Trends

Residential Commercial

Growth in global CO2emissions (including electricity use)

1.7% per year (1971-2004)

2.5% per year (1971-2004)

Largest regional increases in CO2 from buildings (including electricity)

Developing Asia (42%), Middle East/North Africa (19%)

Developing Asia (30%), North America (29%),OECD Pacific (18%)

• Average number of people per household declining, while average dwelling size generally increasing.

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Buildings: Regional Differences

Key source of energy demand

Correspondingmitigation opportunity

Climateconsiderations

OECD and Economies in Transition

Residential space heating very significant; current building stock likely to remain in place for many decades

Retrofits of existing buildings

Heating loads large

Developing Countries

Rapid new building growth

New buildings, improved efficiency standards

Cooling loads more important

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Buildings: Technical Options

• Building equipment:– Energy efficient space and heating (heat pumps, CHP)– Efficient lighting, air conditioners, refrigerators and motors– Efficient cook stoves, household appliances and electrical

equipment– Efficient building energy management and maintenance

• Building thermal integrity:– Improved insulation and sealing– Energy-efficient windows– Proper building orientation

• Using solar energy:– active and passive heating and cooling; climate-sensitive design– effective use of natural light (“daylighting”).

Source: NREL

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Buildings: Evaluating Mitigation Technologies


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Buildings: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• High initial costs• Lack of consumer awareness of

technologies and their potential• Traditional customs and social

barriers• Misplaced incentives• Lack of finance• Low priority on energy efficiency• Consumers don’t usually pay

true costs• Public perception of product

reliability and country of production.

Overcoming barriers:• Comprehensive, sequenced policy

package could include:– Information campaigns– Fiscal and financial incentives– Minimum energy performance

standards

• Address financial constraints, develop industry capacity and boost investment in R&D.

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Buildings Policies: Typology and Examples (1)

Policy Instrument Developing Country Examples Effectiveness / Cost-effectiveness

CONTROL AND REGULATORY MECHANISMS

Appliance standards Brazil, China High / High

Building codes Singapore, Philippines, Algeria, Egypt, China High / Medium

Procurement regulations China, Mexico, South Korea High / Medium

Mandatory labelling and certification programmes Mexico, China, Costa Rica High / High

Energy efficiency obligations and quotas High / High

Utility demand-side management programmes High / High

ECONOMIC AND MARKET-BASED INSTRUMENTS

Energy performance contracting High / Medium

Co-operative procurement High / High

Energy efficiency certificate schemes Medium / Medium

Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms China, Thailand Low / Low


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Buildings Policies: Typology and Examples (2)

Policy Instrument Developing CountryExamples Effectiveness / Cost-effectiveness

FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND INCENTIVES

Taxation (on CO2 or household fuels) Low / Low

Tax exemptions / reductions High / High

Public benefit charges Medium-low / High in reported cases

Capital subsidies, grants, subsidized loans Hong Kong High / Low

SUPPORT, INFORMATION, AND VOLUNTARY ACTION

Voluntary certification and labelling Thailand Medium-high / High

Voluntary and negotiated agreements Medium-high / Medium

Public leadership programmes Mexico, Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador High / High

Awareness raising, education / information campaigns Brazil Low-medium / High

Mandatory audit and energy management requirement Egypt High, but variable / Medium

Detailed billing and disclosure programmes Medium / Medium


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Example of Buildings Policies and Measures

Source: WEC/ENERDATA Energy Efficiency Policies and Measures Database

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Buildings: Key Resources

Links:• OpenEI:

http://en.openei.org/wiki/Gateway:Buildings

• Enerdata is an independent research and consulting firm specialising in the analysis and modelling of the global energy markets and its drivers. https://www.enerdata.net/publications/reports-presentations/world-energy-trends.html

Key expertise:

• Programme for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (PEEB

https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/63939.html

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Buildings: Questions for Discussion

• Globally, the IPCC suggests that buildings are the sector with the greatest mitigation potential. Is that likely to be the situation in your country, and if not, why not?

• What are the principal barriers to energy efficiency in households and commercial buildings in your country?

• Are there examples of notably effective actions? Building or equipment standards? Information campaigns? Efficiency incentives? Others?

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MODULE D2D

Industry

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Industry• Key challenges:

– Continue to provide goods and services that society depends on in a GHG-constrained world

– While regulations are impacting technology use in large enterprises, small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (important in developing countries) may lack economic or technical capacity to install control equipment or quickly innovate.

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Industry: Emissions Sources

• Energy-related CO2 emissions (9.9 GtCO2 in 2004): – Fossil fuels used for energy

(direct and indirect)

• CO2 from industrial processes (0.5 GtCO2 in 2000):– Cement and lime manufacture– Non-energy use of fossil fuels

(chemical processing and metal smelting).

• Non-CO2 GHGs (0.4 GtCO2 in 2000)for example:– N2O from adipic acid, nitric acid,

and caprolactam production– HFC-23 from HCFC-22

manufacture– PFCs from aluminum smelting

and semiconductor manufacture– SF6 from insulated electrical

switchgear, production of flat screens and semiconductors, magnesium die casting, other applications

– CH4 from some chemical processes.

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Industry: Drivers and Trends

• ~85% of industrial sector energy use in 2004 from energy-intensive industries:– Iron and steel– Non-ferrous metals– Chemicals and fertilizers– Petroleum refining– Minerals (cement, lime,

glass, ceramics)– Pulp and paper.

• Dramatic growth in production of energy-intensive industrial goods; trends expected to continue due to rising population and per-capita income.

• Since 1970, global annual production increases of:– Cement: 271%– Aluminium: 223%– Steel: 84%– Ammonia: 200%– Paper: 180%.

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Industry: Emissions Sources and Trends

• Significant improvements in energy intensity counteracted by sharp rise in energy use:

Direct CO2 from industry, 2007


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Industry: Regional Variation

• Share of industrial sector energy-related CO2emissions in 2004:– Developed countries: 35%– Economies in Transition

(EIT): 11%– Developing countries: 53%.

• In 2003, developing countries accounted for:– 42% iron and steel

production– 57% nitrogen fertilizer

production– 78% cement manufacture– ~50% primary aluminum

production.

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Industry: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies

• Sector-wide options:– More efficient motors, high efficiency boilers and process

heaters, fuel switching, using waste materials, recycling• Process-specific options:

– Using bio-energy in industry wastes, energy recovery from pressurized blast furnace gas, minimizing PFC emissions from aluminum manufacture

• Operating procedures:– Control of steam and compressed air leaks, optimum use of

insulation and equipment size.

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Industry: Examples of Mitigation Technologies


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Industry: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• Lack of information• Limited capital availability• Lack of skilled personnel• Decision-making process• Energy prices and

subsidies• Access to technology and

technology transfer

Overcoming barriers:• Technology diffusion policies: there is no

single instrument to reduce barriers; instead, an integrated policy accounting for the characteristics of technologies, stakeholders, and countries addressed would be helpful

• Information programmes designed to assist energy consumers in understanding and employing technologies and practices to use energy more efficiently

• Best Practice’ programmes aimed to improve information on energy efficient technologies, demonstration projects and information dissemination, energy audit programmes, among others

• Environmental legislation can be a driving force in the adoption of new technologies

• Direct subsidies and tax credits or other favourable tax treatments

• Financial incentive programmes leading to large impacts on energy efficiency.

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Industry: Policies and Measures

• Voluntary GHG programmes and agreements:– Government-initiated– Company or industry-initiated

• Financial instruments (taxes, subsidies, access to capital)

• Regional and national GHG emissions trading programmes

• Regulation of non-CO2 gases• Policies focusing on:

– Energy and technology; sustainable development, air quality, waste management.

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Industry: Examples of Financial Instruments

• Singapore’s One-Year Accelerated Depreciation Allowance for Energy Efficient Equipment and Technology (One-Year ADAS)– Under the Income Tax Act, companies that invest in qualifying

energy-efficient equipment can write-off the capital expenditure in one year instead of three

• Mexico’s ESCO market development– National Commission for Energy Efficiency (CONUEE) links

energy service companies (ESCOs) to facilities managers, who are contracted to implement financed energy efficiency projects in the industrial and service sectors.

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Industry: Possible Questions for Discussion

• How might the industrial sector mitigation options interact with trade and competitiveness issues?

• How might your country be affected by a global market for low-carbon technologies?

• What are the barriers preventing industries in your country from increasing energy efficiency?

• What are the technology transfer needs in the industrial sector in your country, and how might these be addressed through mitigation actions?

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MODULE D2E

Agriculture

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Agriculture

• Key challenges:– Uncertainties in long-term

emissions due to dependencies on trends in socio-economic development, population growth, diet, etc.

– Balancing trade-offs of mitigation measures in complex systems (e.g. increasing other GHG/pollutants, water impacts, biodiversity, food security, etc.) Source: FAO MICCA Programme pilot projects:

http://www.fao.org/climatechange/micca/70795/en/

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Agriculture: Emissions Sources and Drivers

• Sources:– CO2: microbial decay or

burning of plant litter and soil organic matter

– CH4: decomposition of organic materials in anaerobic conditions

– N2O: microbial transformation of nitrogen in soils and manures.

• Key drivers:– Population growth

(escalating demands for food)

– Shifts in diet.

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Agriculture: Emissions Trends

• 10-12% of total global anthropogenic GHG emissions:– 60% of N2O and 50% of

CH4

– net flux of CO2 roughly balanced.

• Globally, agricultural CH4and N2O emissions have increased nearly 17% from 1990-2005:– Non-Annex I countries

• Showed a 32% increase• Responsible for ~3/4 of

total agricultural emissions by 2005

– Annex I countries• Showed a 12% decrease.

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Agriculture: Trends and GHG implications

• Continued conversion of forest and other land to agriculture (occurring largely in developing countries)

• Continued growth in land productivity (at a declining rate due to increased use of marginal lands)

– Increasing per-capita food availability despite decreasing per-capita agricultural land, due to technological progress

• Increased use of conservation and zero-tillage• Growing demand for meat and dairy products in developing countries

(driven by economic growth and changing lifestyles)• Intensive production of beef, poultry and pork increasingly common• Increasing international trade due to changing policies and patterns of

production/demand• Increasing use of agricultural products as substitutes for fossil fuel-based

products (e.g. bio plastics, biofuels).

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Agriculture: Regional VariationEstimated historical & projected N2O and CH4 emissions in the agricultural sector by region:

CH4 from enteric fermentation dominant in areas with large livestock population

Emissions from rice production & biomass burning mostly in developing countries

Manure management emissions higher in developed regions than developing regions


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Agriculture: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies

• Reducing emissions through improved:– Livestock and manure management– Water and rice management– Fertilizer application– Cultivation methods

• Enhancing removals/creating sinks (carbon sequestration) through:

– Agro-forestry– Set-asides and land-use change– Soil carbon storage– Reduced tillage or no till cropping

• Avoiding (or displacing) emissions– Substituting fossil fuels with energy from

agricultural feed stocks (e.g. crop residues, dung, energy crops)

• (counted in sectors using the energy). Source: FAO MICCA Programme pilot projects: http://www.fao.org/climatechange/micca/70795/en/

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Selection of Mitigation Measures Depends on…

• Prices for carbon:– Low prices: dominant

strategies consistent with existing production (e.g. changes in tillage, fertilizer application, livestock diet formulation, manure management)

– Higher prices: elicit land-use changes that displace existing production (e.g. biofuels) use of costly animal feed-based mitigation options.

• Location:– Practice effective in

reducing emissions at one site may be less effective (or even counterproductive) elsewhere.

Source: FAO (2010). “Global survey of agricultural mitigation projects”

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Agriculture: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• Farm-level adoption constraints• Government subsidies• Lack of capacity and skills• Lack of information• Property rights• Transaction costs, measurement

and monitoring costs• Potential for reversibility or

displacement of emissions• Measurement uncertainty• Consistency with traditional

practices• Pressure for competing uses of

land and water.

Overcoming barriers:• Participatory arrangements that fully

engage all the involved actors may help to overcome many barriers

• Expansion of internationally supported credit and savings schemes, and price support, to assist rural people

• Shifts in the allocation of international agricultural research

• Improvement of food security and disaster early warning systems

• Development of institutional linkage between countries with high standards in certain technologies, for example flood control.

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Synergies in Agriculture: Mitigation and Food Security

Source: FAO (2009). “Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies”

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Agriculture: Policies and Measures

• NAMAs submitted to UNFCCC related to agriculture

• National Communication examples:– Biomass/biogas replacing

cooking coal, rice paddy field water drainage, molasses urea block (MUB) cattle feeds

– Reduce crop residue burning, increase areas for permanent trees, reduce agricultural land where open burning is done

Source: FAO, “From Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to Low-Carbon Development in Agriculture”

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Agriculture: Examples of GHG Impacts and Mitigation Measures


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FAO Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture (MICCA) Programme

• MICCA’s main objective is to assist developing countries in contributing to climate change mitigation in agriculture.

• Four pilot projects: Ecuador, Kenya, Tanzania and Viet Nam.

• Kenya:– Smallholder dairy producers in the

Rift Valley– Using life-cycle analysis and other

approaches to evaluate technical alternatives with the goal of raising “carbon-neutral” cattle

– Under East Africa Dairy Development Project (EADD)

• Tanzania:– Aims to address soil degradation

from current farming practices in the Uluguru mountains

– Hillside conservation agriculture project (soil conservation, zero tillage practices, agroforestry).

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Agriculture: Key Resources

Links:• Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations (FAO) climate change projects

http://www.fao.org/in-action/fao-projects/en/

Key expertise:• FAOhttp://www.fao.org/home/en/• Consultative Group on

International Agricultural Research (CGIAR):

– Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

– http://ccafs.cgiar.org/

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Agriculture: Questions for Discussion

• What types of agriculture mitigation measures might enhance or decrease food security?

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MODULE D2F

Land use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF)

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LULUCF

• Key challenges:– Addressing underlying

drivers for deforestation– Integrating climate

mitigation into forestry policies

– Adequate design (e.g. leakage, permanence, monitoring, etc.)

– Balancing trade-offs (e.g. biodiversity, competing land uses), sustainable development implications.

Source: CIFOR (2011)(Photo by Neil Palmer/CIAT)

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LULUCF: Emissions Sources and Trends

• Main source of emissions:– Stored CO2 released through

deforestationLand-use change is a highly complex process. It results from the interaction of diverse drivers that may be direct or indirect and can involve numerous transitions, such as clearing, grazing, cultivation, abandonment and secondary regrowth (Gerber et al. 2013).Deforestation and land-use change accounts for 2,200–6,600 million tonnesof carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent per year, or 30–50% of agricultural emissions and about 4–14% of global emissions (Vermeulen et al. 2012, based on van der Werf et al. 2010 and Blaser and Robledo 2007).

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LULUCF: Drivers of Deforestation and Degradation

Source: Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (2009). “R-PP Preparation: Drivers of Deforestation and Degradation” presentation.

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists (2011). “Drivers of Deforestation: What is Driving Deforestation Today?” Fact Sheet.

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LULUCF: Regional Variation

• Between 2000-2050, forest area projected to:– Increase 60-230

million hectares in industrialized regions

– Decrease 200-490 million hectares in developing regions. Net change in forest area, 2000-2005

Largest losses in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia

(based on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios)


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LULUCF: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies

Source: UNDP (2008). “Key Issues on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) with an Emphasis on Developing Country Perspectives”

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LULUCF: Options, Impacts and Timing

Emissions avoidance: largest short-term gains

Afforestation: benefits accumulate over years to decades, but more upfront investments


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Deforestation in Brazil’s Reference and Low Carbon Scenarios

Source: ESMAP, “Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study”

• Plan of Action for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon increases enforcement capacity and consolidates conservation policies for the Amazon rainforest.

• Broad implementation of such a strategy is expected to reduce deforestation by ~68% by 2030 compared to the reference scenario.

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Mexico Low Carbon Study (MEDEC):Agriculture and Forestry Interventions

Source: World Bank, “Low Carbon Development for Mexico”

The study identified and evaluated interventions in the agriculture and forestry sectors:• Agriculture:

– Zero-tillage maize; biofuel production

• Forestry:– REDD with productive use of

biomass (e.g., biomass electricity, charcoal production)

– REDD without productive use of biomass (e.g. wildlife management, payment for environmental services)

– Reforestation and restoration, afforestation.

Mitigation potential was assessed with a geographic information system.

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LULUCF: Barriers and Opportunities

Key barriers:• Profitability incentives frequently run

counter to forest conservation and sustainable forest management

• Direct and indirect drivers of deforestation lie outside the forestry sector (e.g., agricultural policies/markets)

• Lack of technical capability, including for monitoring carbon stocks

• Limited regulatory and institutional capacity

• Efficiency of forest policies influenced by land tenure, institutional and regulatory capacity of governments, financial competitiveness, cultural relationship to forests.

Overcoming barriers:• Forestry sector options are relatively

low cost compared with those in the energy sector, which helps to reduce barriers

• Promotion of mitigation projects also promotes the flow of technology

• Independent verification of carbon abatement would help to increase the credibility and funding of forestry-sector mitigation projects.

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LULUCF: Policies and Measures (Examples from IPCC)

• Reducing deforestation:– Combat illegal logging: legally protect forests by designating protected areas

and reserves– Country successes: significantly reduced deforestation rates in China, the

Philippines, and Thailand; reduced forest degradation through Joint Forest Management programme in India

– Limited options for maintaining forests on private lands (though payment for environmental services (PES) approaches being developed)

– Advantage of national-sectoral approach over project-based to avoid leakage (though still risk of international leakage).

• Promote afforestation and reforestation:– Non-climate forest policies– Incentives for plantation establishment (e.g. afforestation grants, tax exemptions,

etc.)

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LULUCF: Policies and Measures (Examples from IPCC continued)

• Improve forest management:– Reduce harvest rates and/or damage– Due to limited government authority on private lands, provide incentives to maintain forest

cover or improve management (e.g., tax credits, cost sharing, environmental service payments)

– Increase forest protection against natural disturbance agents (e.g., insects, disease, fire)– Voluntary certification schemes.

• Increase substitution of forest-derived biofuels/biomass for fossil fuels/energy-intensive materials:

– Examples include Brazil’s industrial charcoal production incentives, Australia’s Mandatory Renewable Energy Target incentivizing energy from plantations and wood waste, building codes to promote sustainably construction materials.

• Strengthen role of forest policies in mitigating climate change:– Most successful when: consistent with profitability incentives; or sufficient political will,

financial resources, and regulatory capacity– Climate mitigation generally not the core focus of forestry policies, so leakage and other

factors not often considered– Examples of integration of climate change mitigation objectives into national forestry policies:

Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Peru.

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LULUCF: Policies and Measures (Country Examples)

• NAMAs submitted to UNFCCC related to forestry:

• Ecuador’s Yasuni-ITT

Source: UNDP Multi-Partner Trust Fund Office Gateway, Ecuador Yasuni ITT Trust Fund

Source: FAO “From Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to Low-Carbon Development in Agriculture: NAMAs as a Pathway at Country Level”

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African Wildlife Foundation (AWF) mitigation work

• AWF identified priority work areas concerning climate change, including:― Mitigate terrestrial carbon

emissions through landscape conservation, forest management and rangeland rehabilitation through carbon payment mechanisms (e.g. formal global carbon market and voluntary markets)

― Help countries access clean and efficient energy technologies (e.g. efficient stoves, solar power) to reduce carbon intensity of development.

(Source: http://www.awf.org/section/land/climatechange )

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LULUCF: Key Resources

Links:• Home | Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (fao.org)

• UN-REDD programme– https://www.un-redd.org/

Key expertise:• Center for International Forestry

Research (CIFOR)https://www.cifor.org/• Climate and Land Use Alliance

(CLUA): http://www.climateandlandusealliance.org/

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LULUCF: Questions for Discussion

• What tools are used in your country to measure or monitor forest carbon stocks? To analyze potential mitigation measures?

• Are maps, land tenure regulations, monitoring teams, etc. available in your country to help assess Forestry mitigation potential?

• How might REDD crediting or incentives interact with domestic forestry and land-use policies?

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MODULE D2G

Waste Management

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Waste Management

• Key challenges:– Availability and quality of

annual data– Decisions often made

locally without quantification, leading to underestimation of waste sector mitigation globally

– Decoupling generation of waste from economic drivers.

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Waste Management: Emissions Sources and Drivers

• Major sources of GHG:– Landfill CH4

– Wastewater CH4 and N2O• Other sources:

– Minor CO2 emissions from waste incineration

– Fluorinated gases (CFCs and HCFCs)

• Can persist for decades in post-consumer waste and occur as trace components in landfill gas; not currently quantified

• Key drivers:– Waste generation, which is linked to

population, urbanization, and affluence

– Extent of landfill gas capture.Source: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGIII

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Waste Management: Regional Variations

• Landfill CH4 emissions– Developed countries:

largely stabilized due to landfill gas recovery, increased recycling, decreased landfilling, alternative waste management technologies

– Developing countries: increasing due to more controlled anaerobic landfilling.

• Wastewater CH4 and N2O emissions:– Generally higher in

developing countries due to rapid population growth/urbanization without concurrent wastewater infrastructure.

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Waste Management: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies

• Wide range of mature technologies available for waste management:

– Landfill gas recovery (reduces CH4)

– Post-consumer recycling (avoids waste generation)

– Composting (avoids GHG generation)

– Processes reducing GHG generation compared to landfilling

• Thermal processes, e.g. incineration and industrial combustion, MBT with landfilling of residuals, anaerobic digestion

• Advanced thermal processes, e.g. pyrolysis and gasification.


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Waste Management: Mitigation Technologies and Strategies• Many technologies

available for wastewater management, collection, treatment, re-use and disposal:– Natural purification

processes– Energy-intensive advanced

technologies.

• Wastewater treatment removes pollutants:– Small systems: pit latrines,

composting toilets, septic tanks

– Advanced treatment: sludge treatment, trickling filters, anaerobic or facultative lagoons, anaerobic digestion and constructed wetlands.

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Waste Example from Ethiopia’s 1st National Communication

• Selection of measures depends on costs and socio-cultural attitudes. Preliminary analysis suggests composting is the cheapest option, followed by landfill methane recovery.

• Composting is promising because 68% by weight of solid waste in Addis Ababa city is organic.

Mitigation analysis of methane emissions from solid waste in the city of Addis Ababa

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Waste Management: Key Barriers

Key barriers:• Lack of enabling policies

initiatives, institutional mechanism, information and opportunities

• Organizational problems in collection and transport

• Lack of coordination among different groups.

Overcoming barriers• A multi-pronged approach is needed

which should include the following components:

– Building up of databases on availability of wastes, their characteristics, distribution, accessibility, current practices of utilization and/or disposal technologies and their economic viability

– An institutional mechanism for technology transfer though a coordinated programmeinvolving the R&D institutions, financing agencies, and industry (Schwarz, 1997)

– Defining the role of stakeholders including local authorities, individual house holders, NGOs, industries, R&D institutions, and the government.

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Waste Management: Examples of Policies and Measures


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Waste Management: Questions for Discussion

• To what extent is landfill gas recovery common practice in your country? Is this likely to change in the future?

• The emissions benefits of reuse strategies, both in the formal and informal sectors, as well as waste minimization and recycling activities, may result largely from avoided manufacturing and material extraction emissions. How can these benefits be reflected in mitigation assessments and in future emissions inventories?

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MODULE D3

Mitigation from a Cross-Sectoral Perspective

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Types of Cross-Sectoral Mitigation Technologies

• There are various mitigation technologies that affect multiple sectors, or that cannot be attributed to any particular sector.

• Implementation of cross-sectoral mitigation technologies can:– Occur in parallel in more than one sector

• Improvement in one sector will benefit the others– Involve interaction between sectors

• Mitigation potential increased when applied as a group– Create competition among sectors

• May compete for resources.

• Other techniques:– Ocean fertilization and geo-engineering

• Speculative; environmental side-effects and costs still being assessed.

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Examples of Cross-Sectoral Mitigation Technologies

• Parallel:– Solar PV:

• Centralized energy generation in energy sector; distributed energy generation in buildings sector

– Information technology (IT):• Implemented in parallel across sectors as component of various end-use

technologies (e.g., advanced vehicle technologies, smart household appliances.

• Interaction:– Use of fossil fuel gasification with carbon dioxide capture and storage

(CCS) technology to produce hydrogen for transportation and industrial applications.

• Competition:– Use of biomass for transportation fuels, and competition for land and

resources with other sectors.

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Cross-Sectoral Mitigation: Linkages, Synergies and Trade-offs

• Synergies and trade-offs between measures with non-climate objectives and GHG mitigation:– Generally, climate mitigation is not the goal; rather,

outgrowth of efforts driven by economic, security, of local environmental concerns

– Promising approaches take advantage of natural synergies between climate protection and development priorities, in order to advance both simultaneously.

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Cross-Sectoral Mitigation: Questions for Discussion

• What are some key challenges associated with cross-sectoral mitigation approaches (both technologies and policies), both in assessment and in implementation?

• How can an assessment team ensure analytical consistency across many different sectors?

• How can the concepts of mitigation potential (market, economic, social, technological) and barriers best be incorporated into a mitigation assessment?

CGE TRAINING MATERIALS - MITIGATION ASSESSMENT MODULE D

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