CGA Business Confidence Survey Q2 2020 - Methodology · CGA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE Q2 2020 Within the...

CGA Business Confidence Survey Q2 2020 - Methodology

Results collected between 17.04.2020 – 27.04.2020 from leading industry figures from the eating and drinking out sector

1%Other Snr

Management

123

Overall

responses:

Sample make-up:

39%Chairman & Board

level

60% CEO/MD

C G A B U S I N E S S C O N F I D E N C E Q 2 2 0 2 0

www.cga.co.ukCGA Business Confidence Q2 2020



CURRENT

CHALLENGES &

CONFIDENCE


How optimistic are you about the prospects for the eating and drinking out market as a whole over the next

12 months? Proportion of leaders “very” or “fairly” optimistic

From its four year high of 60% in February, general market optimism has plummeted along with confidence in leaders’ own businesses


Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

General market 86% 93% 74% 15% 36% 47% 43% 34% 30% 34% 47% 36% 39% 39% 41% 30% 44% 60% 5%

Own business 90% 91% 83% 24% 61% 68% 66% 66% 52% 64% 75% 67% 63% 68% 65% 58% 64% 83% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Just one in 8 business leaders have sites that are trading, with three quarters having completely shut down


Which of the following describes the status of sites across your estate?

73%Completely shut down all sites

14%Helping food supplies to

NHS / local community /

vulnerable

12%Have sites trading to the

public (either through

delivery or grocery)


How challenging are the following for your business currently?

(% of leaders who said ‘our biggest challenge’ or ‘a major challenge’)

With cash and funding the main concerns for leaders, its no surprise the greatest challenges cited are rent payment and access to loans


67%

54%

31%

24%19%

Rent payments /landlords agreements

Access to loans / CBIL Banking relations /investment

Investment frominvestors

Payments tofurloughed staff


Do you support the idea of a debt enforcement moratorium? If so, how long do you feel this should be

implemented for?

89% of operators support the idea of a debt enforcement moratorium, with the majority suggesting an initial nine months


3% 3%

20%

39%

23%

On a rollingmonthly

basis

For aninitial three

months

For aninitial sixmonths

For aninitial nine

months

For aninitial year

89%Of business leaders support the

idea of a debt enforcement

moratorium


What proportion, if any, of staff have you furloughed since the Government scheme was announced?

Nearly all businesses have furloughed nearly all their staff, with 83% of businesses having furloughed over 90% of their workforce


1%

2%

2%

4%

4%

5%

22%

61%

We have notfurloughed staff

0-50%

51-70%

71-80%

81-85%

86-90%

91-95%

96-100%

83%Of businesses have furloughed over

90% of their staff



How long do you think the furlough scheme should continue for?

3%6%

33%

5%8%

36%

Until lockdownmeasures ease

Until lockdownmeasures are lifted

universally

On a sector-by-sector basis,dependant on

opening

For one monthafter sectors re-

open

For two monthsafter sectors re-

open

For three monthsafter sectors re-

open

The consensus among business leaders is a preference for tapered furlough, based on sector, or with a three month grace period



RECOVERY

PLANNING


Which of the following best describes your approach to recovery planning for post COVID-19?

81% of operators are planning for recovery, with 72% planning based on different scenarios and 9% based on other global markets


81%Of leaders have started planning for

recovery

In detail…

72% have started planning for recovery, across

various scenarios

13% are waiting for more information before

planning for recovery

9% have started planning for recovery, based on

other global markets

5% don’t have the capacity to plan for recovery

at the moment

1% haven’t thought about recovery planning yet


Regardless of legislation, the majority of leaders are planning for phased re-openings across their estates


Are you planning for a mass re-opening or a phased re-opening across your estate?

62%A phased re-opening

31%Mass re-opening, across as

much of the estate as the

Government allows

7%Mass re-opening,

across the full estate


The shape and size of the market post COVID will look fundamentally different


Will there be sites that you will keep permanently closed, rather than reopen?

32%

37%

31%

Yes No We are yet to decide

Of the 32% who will keep sites permanently

closed, leaders will close…

13%

7%

4%

6%

2%

Up to 5% ofthe estate

Between 6-10% of the

estate


estate


estate

50% of theestate or more


What are your predictions for the proportion of sites across the hospitality industry that will re-open after

this period, including independents? (Average % of sites expected to open)

85% of hotels are predicted to re-open post-lockdown, with the late night sector seeing the most predicted casualties


69% 71% 76% 77% 79% 85%Late night

outlets

Restaurants Bars Wet-led pubs Pub restaurants Hotels



RE-OPENING


On average, leaders estimate that there will be a near 9% of turnover required in order to begin trading


8.9%Is the average amount of turnover

leaders suggest they will need to re-

open

24%

14%

30%

15%

9%

5%3%

Lessthan2%

3-5% 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-30% Morethan30%

As a proportion of your turnover, how much funding do you predict that you will require in order to

commence full trading across the estate?


Half of all leaders suggest that sites will be able to trade within a week of lockdown being lifted


4% 29% 15% 20% 22% 10%Immediately Less than a

week

One week Two weeks Between two

and four weeks

Over a month

Operationally, how long do you predict it will take for your sites to be able to trade, once lockdown is lifted?


Within the time taken to re-open, leaders predict that there will be re-engagement required with teams


6%

25%

32%

26%

10%

1%

A day or less Two - three days Three - seven days One - two weeks Two weeks - amonth

Over a month

How much time do you foresee being required for your teams to be prepared and working before re-opening?


It’s not just staff and costs that will be challenging, but increased operational challenges, regulations and consumer demands


85%

77%

29% 27% 25%

15%11%

Operationalchanges due to

COVID-19

AdditionalGovernmentregulations

Food supply Retaining staff Re-negotiationof contracts

with suppliers

Drink supply Re-training staff

How challenging do you perceive the following to be for your recovery?

(% of leaders who said ‘our biggest challenge’ or ‘a major challenge’)



78%

72%68%

65%

56%

33%

22%19% 19%

14%

8%

Increased focuson hygieneinitiatives

Increased space /reduced covers

Increasedcommunications

on hygieneinitiatives

Reduced capacity Reduced foodmenu items

Improved deliveryservice / dishes

Reduced drinkmenu items

More valueoptions

Sustainabilityinitiatives

Ethical initiatives Increasedtransparency ofthe supply chain

Leaders are planning to focus on hygiene initiatives and implementing social distancing measures across their estates

Which of the following are you planning to implement post-lockdown?

Sample size: 4956 BrandTrack April 2020 – COVID-19

22%

31%

21%

14%13%

Yes, I would becomfortable doing so assoon as the restrictions

are lifted

Yes, but I would becautious

Yes, as long as therewere added precautions

in place

No I don't know yet


Less than a quarter of GB adults would be comfortable eating/drinking out in any sector as soon as restrictions are lifted

When the Government restrictions are lifted, will you feel comfortable resuming your normal visits to pubs, bars

and restaurants? Results displayed for the average sector

Sample size: 3290 BrandTrack April 2020 – COVID-19

64% 60% 56% 55% 44% 42% 42% 34% 33% 30%

Tables/

seats

moved

apart

Free hand

sanitiser

available

Enhanced

cleaning

protocols

Social

distancing

measures

Enhanced

food safety/

hygiene

procedures

Ability to

pay

contactless

Limited

venue

capacity

Availability

of outdoor

areas

Improved

toilet

facilities

Staff

wearing

protective

equipment


Many more consumers would be comfortable to return if added precautions were implemented, such as social distancing

You have said that you would be cautious resuming your normal visits to pubs, bars or restaurants or would like there to be

added precautions in place. Which, if any, of the following would make you feel more comfortable visiting these places?

CGA Business Confidence Survey Q2 2020 - Methodology · CGA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE Q2 2020 Within the...

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