CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc. · Avon at-a-glance North Latin America $0.9Bn 15% Europe Middle East...

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Transcript of CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc. · Avon at-a-glance North Latin America $0.9Bn 15% Europe Middle East...

Page 1: CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc. · Avon at-a-glance North Latin America $0.9Bn 15% Europe Middle East Africa $2.2Bn 38% Asia Pacific $0.6Bn 10% South Latin America $2.1Bn 36% Revenue

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CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc.

Presented At Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s

November 29, 20162

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Disclaimer

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Information

Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts may be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the federal securities laws that involve potential

events, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Words such as “projects,” “estimates,” “forecasts,” “believes,” “intends,” “expects,”

“anticipates,” and similar expressions (including their negative counterparts) are intended to identify many of these forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking

statements are based upon information currently available to management and management's perception thereof as of the date hereof. The events, risks and

uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements are detailed from time to time in reports filed by Avon Products, Inc. with the Securities and Exchange

Commission, including Forms 8‐K, 10‐Q, and 10‐K. Some forward‐looking statements in this presentation include and concern our outlook and performance, cost and

cost savings, competitive advantages, various strategies and initiatives (including our transformation plan), strategic partnerships and transactions, and organization

and structure. These forward‐looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, levels of activity, performance or

achievement of Avon to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward‐looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include,

but are not limited to, our ability to improve our financial and operational performance, the possibility of business disruption, competitive uncertainties and general

economic and business conditions in our markets, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. Any forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date

they are made.

Forward-looking statements are not, and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be accurate

indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those

expressed in forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update any such forward‐looking statements to reflect future events or developments.

This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. A “non-GAAP financial measure” is defined as a numerical measure of a company's financial

performance that excludes or includes amounts so as to be different than the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP

in the statement of income, balance sheet or statement of cash flows of the company. Avon has provided in the appendix to this presentation a reconciliation of non-

GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Please see the appendix at the end of this presentation for a reconciliation of

certain non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation.

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We are the world’s #1 Direct Selling Beauty

Company

$6 billion in net sales

6 million active Representatives

Sales operations in 57 countries and territories,

with distribution in 15 more countries

We sell 2.7 billion units annually, fulfilling

103 million orders2

Our Top 10 markets account for nearly

70% of revenues3

Avon at-a-glance

North LatinAmerica$0.9Bn

15%

Europe Middle East

Africa$2.2Bn

38%

Asia Pacific$0.6Bn

10%

South LatinAmerica$2.1Bn

36%

Revenue by Region1LTM 9/30/16

Avon proudly stands for Beauty, Innovation, Optimism, and above all for Women

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Source: Euromonitor International Ltd.; Company financials and filings.1Percentages do not add to 100% as regional revenues exclude revenue from other operating segments and business activities, and due to rounding.2Units sold and number of unique orders in a sales campaign for LTM September 30, 2016.3Based on LTM September 30, 2016 revenues.

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Growing categories and industry

Beauty & Personal Care categories:

Reached $426Bn in annual sales globally in 2015

Grown for 15+ consecutive years

Continues to grow steadily at 5% annually

Direct Selling industry:

Reached $131Bn in sales in 2015

Has grown at 5% annually for the last five years

Beauty & Personal Care is the #1 Direct Selling category

7Source: Euromonitor International Ltd., World Federation of Direct Selling Associations (2015), and Company financials.

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Compelling and Attractive Product Offering Across Various Price Points

Portfolio is focused on beauty

Cleansers &

Toners

Moisturizers

Eye Care

Treatments

Fashion Jewelry

Watches

Apparel & Footwear

Accessories

Perfume

Shower Gel

Body Sprays

Body Lotion

Powder

Deodorant

Lips

Eyes

Face

Nails

Tools & Brushes

Bath & Shower

Body

Foot Care

Sun Care

Hair Care

Housewares

Gifts and decorative products

Entertainment and leisure products

Children’s products

Nutritional products

Beauty ($4.2Bn)

74% of Portfolio by Sales

Fashion ($0.9Bn)

15% of Portfolio by Sales

Skincare (including Personal Care) Fragrance Color

Home ($0.6Bn)

11% of Portfolio by Sales

Sales

Drivers

Skincare can lead to regular repeat purchases and

earnings for Representatives daily

use products

Fashion & Home brings incremental sales through seasonal

renewal and gifting opportunities

Fragrance is akey driver of

Representative earnings and can be

easy to sell

Color is a reason

to call on customers with every brochure

by providing newness and

novelty

Personal Careprovides low cost

trial, high velocity & repeat purchase

opportunities, specifically daily

use products

Key

Brands

Key

Products

Note: Figures based on LTM September 30, 2016.

Source: Company website, Company filings, and other publicly available information.

Category

Sample

Products

Category

Strategy

8

Upper Mass

Mass

Value

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Leadership Positions in Key Markets and Categories

Top 10 Markets

Avon holds strong Market Share positions globally

All channels(retail & direct selling)

Brazil Mexico Russia Colombia Argentina Turkey South AfricaPolandUK

#2 #1 #1#1#2 #1 #1#1#1Direct Selling #1

Philippines

2133 3 5 235+Skin Care 1 22

1 35+ 1 33 3 22Color Cosmetics 1

3 2 132 1 2 25+1Fragrance

Source: Euromonitor International Ltd. - Represents 2015 data

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Creating Investor Value

Cerberus Partnership

Catalyst for change

Improve Operational Discipline & Execution

SeparateNA business

Unlock Valuein International Growth Markets

c

Transformation Plan

Disciplined execution

Invest in Growth

Improve Financial Resilience

Drive out Cost

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Three-year Transformation Plan

Media Investments & Social Selling

Implementation

Invest in Growth ($350MM)

Invest in our Brand & Beauty Categories

Improve Representative Engagement

Bring Social Selling to Scale

IT & Service Model Evolution

Implementation of Operating

Model and Supply Chain

Improvements

(annual run-rate benefit)

$350MMDrive out Cost ($350MM)

Improve Operating Model

Optimize Supply Chain Network

Improve Financial Resilience

Cerberus Investment

Dividend Suspension

Opportunistically Repay Debt / De-lever

Tax Planning

Strengthen Balance Sheet

2015 2016 2017 2018

$150MM

$200MM

Description

Primary focus to fuel growth

Continued focus to fund

Transformation

Focus builds into 2017

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We are on track to deliver against our transformation savings commitment

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Transformation Plan Savings

Rationalization of Manufacturing Network

Sourcing Spend Optimization

Rationalization of Distribution Network

Reduce Corporate and Regional structures

Shift Costs out of hard currencies to align

with revenue

Create scale and efficiency benefits in

commercial model

Supply Chain and SourcingOperating Model

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We have also improved financial resilience by extending our debt maturity profile and maintaining substantial liquidity

$500$350

$500 $500$250

$400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043

Divested Liz Earle business and used proceeds to

repay 2016 notes.

Suspended shareholder dividend.

Issued $500 million secured first lien notes due

2022 at a coupon of 7.875%.

Completed tender resulting in $301 million of bonds

being retired.

Repurchased $163 million in the open market in

October.

Issued notices of prepayment for the March 2018

and July 2018 notes.

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Senior Unsecured Notes Senior Secured Notes Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400MM)

Financial Resilience Initiatives

Financial Resilience Highlights

Debt Maturities Pre-Debt Refinancing ($MM)

6.3 yrs.

7.8 yrs.

Proforma Debt Maturities ($MM)

Senior Unsecured Notes Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400MM)

0$238

$410 $500 $500 $250

$400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043

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Improve Representative Engagement Bring Social Selling to ScaleInvest in Beauty & Brands

We are Fueling Growth through Investing in Our Brands, Improving Engagement and Bringing Social Selling to Scale

Invest in Growth

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We will focus on our top 40 Brands

Strengthen the Avon Brand

Continue to build innovative pipeline

Color Skincare Fragrance

16% growth

in total global social

media reach in just 6

months!

105 Million Video

Views

Avon is the #3 Beauty Brand

on Facebook with 18.7M fans

Execute disciplined pricing

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Our long-term financial goals

Long-Term Financial Goals

Metrics Long-Term Financial Goals

Revenue Growth Mid single-digit C$ Revenue growth

Representative

Growth

Low single-digit Active Representative

growth

Adjusted

Operating Margin

Low double-digit Adjusted Operating

Margin

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3.9% OM

2016 Total Avon – Q3 Actuals

Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015 – F$MM

($90)($104)

Q3'15 Q3'16

+310 bps

+$44M

($0.11)

+$0.02

Q3'15 Q3'16

Adj. Operating Profit2

Adj. EPS2 Cash from Ops YTD

($14M)

+$0.13

Revenue

• 8 of top 10 markets grew in

local currency

Adj. Operating Profit

• Revenue leverage, cost

savings, pricing and lower

expenses more than offset

270bps of FX headwinds

Cash from Ops YTD

• -$14M vs PY driven by

timing of payments,

increased AR and a 2016

pension contribution

Adj. EPS

• +$0.13 vs PY due to higher

Adj. Operating Profit and

better FX below the line

$1,436$1,409

Q3'15 Q3'16

-1.9%

Revenue Growth

+3.6%1

$55$99

Q3'15 Q3'16

7.0% OM

181. Constant Currency Revenue year over year change (C$2016 rates).

2. Refer to Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP to Adjusted figures.

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Q3 2016 Reportable Segment Performance

Revenue Growth by Reportable Segment

(Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015 – F$MM)

$497 $476

Q3 '15 Q3 '16

(4%)

+2%

EMEA

$146 $133

Q3 '15 Q3 '16

(9%)

(7%)

APAC

+9%

$571 $595

Q3 '15 Q3 '16

+4%

SOLA

$210 $197

Q3 '15 Q3 '16

(6%)

+3%

NOLA

Source: Company financials and filings.

= Constant Currency Revenue year over year change (C$2016 rates).

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$1,947

$1,569 $1,614 $1,519 $1,436

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Sep-16

Pro forma Net Debt Profile (F$MM)

Substantial Liquidity Available

Liquidity Profile

($511)

Total Debt1,2 $3,137 $2,659 $2,550 $2,206 $1,937

Cash or

Equivalents1$1,190 $1,090 $936 $687 $501

Net D

eb

t

Source: Company financials and filings1Total debt and cash as of September 30, 2016 are pro forma for the $163 million debt reduction in October 2016 and $238 million debt reduction in November2Total debt 2012 – 2015 excludes debt issuance cost; September 2016 debt includes debt issuance costs

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Liquidity Analysis (F$MM)

Available Liquidity as of September 30, 2016 (Current and Pro forma1)

$501

$867

$400

($34)$902

$1,268

CASH AND CASH

EQUIVALENTS

SECURED

REVOLVING

CREDIT FACILITY

LETTERS OF

CREDIT

AVAILABLE

LIQUIDITY

Current Pro Forma

1

1

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Avon’s Capital Structure

Capital Structure (F$MM)Proforma

Debt Maturities (F$MM)

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1.Debt and Cash as of September 30, 2016 are pro forma for the $163 million debt reduction in October 2016 and $238 million debt reduction in November2.Revolver and Senior Secured Notes are secured by Avon International Operations, Inc. (AIO), which is a 100% owned indirect subsidiary of Avon Products, Inc.3 Debt shown at principal value, including debt issuance costs.4 Refer to Appendix for reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA.

Senior Unsecured Notes Senior Secured Notes

Secured Revolving Credit

Facility ($400MM)

0

$238

$410 $500 $500

$250

$400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043

($ in millions) Proforma1

Effective Rate Maturity 9/30/16

Cash and Cash Equivalents $501

Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400) L+ 275bps 6/5/20 $0

New Senior Secured Notes 7.875% 8/15/22 $500

Total Avon International Operations Debt(2) $500

6.500% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 6.50% 3/1/19 238

4.600% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 6.60% 3/15/20 410

5.000% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 7.00% 3/15/23 500

6.950% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 8.95% 3/15/43 250

Other Debt -- 39

Total Consolidated Debt3 $1,937

Cerberus Convertible Preferred Equity 435

Market Capitalization (9/30/16) 2,476

Total Capitalization $4,848

LTM 9/30/16 Adjusted EBITDA (4) $514

LTM 9/30/16 Interest Expense, net 117

Credit Statistics(4):

Total Avon International Operations Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 1.0x

Net Avon International Operations Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (0.0x)

Total Consolidated Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 3.8x

Net Consolidated Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 2.8x

Adjusted EBITDA / Interest 4.4x

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($ in millions) Year to Date LTM

2015 2016 Q4'15

Sept 30,

2016 9/30/2016

Income (loss) from continuing operations,

net of tax ($668) $36 ($15) ($84) ($99)

Income taxes 699 38 22 72 94

Income (loss) from continuing operations,

before taxes $31 $75 $7 ($12) ($4)

Interest expense, net 26 31 30 88 117

Loss/(Gain) on extinguishment of debt 6 (4) - (4) (4)

Other expense, net 29 10 26 143 169

Gain on sale (46) - - - -

Operating Profit $45 $112 $63 $215 $278

CTI Restructuring (2) 14 21 70 91

Venezuelan Special Items 6 - 2 - 2

FCPA accrual & Legal Settlement - (27) - (27) (27)

Pension settlement charge 6 - 1 - 1

Other items - - 3 - 3

Asset impairment and other charges - - 7 - 7

Adj. Operating Profit (Adj EBIT) $55 $99 $97 $258 $355

Depreciation & Amortization 30 29 29 85 114

Non-Cash Stock Based Compensation 17 7 22 23 45

Adj. EBITDA $102 $134 $148 $366 $514

Quarter Ended Sept 30,

Adjustments

EBITDA and Operating Profit Reconciliation

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• Avon has recorded costs to implement (“CTI”) restructuring

related to the Transformation Plan, IT infrastructure

outsourcing, and cost savings initiatives

• Venezuelan Special items include the costs and charges

related to Venezuela being designated as a highly inflationary

economy and the impacts of the devaluations of its currency

• Legal settlement related to professional services

• Settlement charges associated with the U.S. defined benefit

pension plan

• Transaction-related costs associated with the planned

separation of North America that were included in continuing

operations

• Non-cash impairment charges associated with goodwill of the

Company’s Egypt business in 2015

• Non-cash expense, associated with stock based employee

compensation

Notes

2

3

4

7

5

1

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

88

Amounts are predominantly foreign exchange gains and

losses, including the impact of Venezuelan currency

devaluations, and to a lesser extent the amortization of

costs associated with debt financings. The foreign exchange

gains and losses are caused by the fluctuation of exchange

rates on intercompany financings as well as on

intercompany and third party working capital balances,

denominated in another currency

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Earnings Per Share Reconciliation

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• Avon has recorded costs to implement (“CTI”) restructuring

related to the Transformation Plan, IT infrastructure

outsourcing, and cost savings initiatives

• Venezuelan Special items include the costs and charges

related to Venezuela being designated as a highly inflationary

economy and the impacts of the devaluations of its currency

• Legal settlement related to professional services

• Settlement charges associated with the U.S. defined benefit

pension plan

• Gain on sale of Liz Earle and impact of extinguishment of debt

Valuation allowances for the full amount of the Company’s

U.S. deferred tax assets, as well as for certain deferred tax

assets outside of the U.S.

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

*For the quarter ended September 30, 2016, the diluted EPS impact for each Non-GAAP item on the table above is not provided due to the participation rights of the Series C

convertible preferred stock. The Reported and Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations are calculated independently and factor in the participation rights of the Series C

convertible preferred stock, and, therefore, would cause the amounts not to sum to Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations.

Adjustments($ in millions)

2015 2016

Diluted EPS from continuing operations ($1.51) $0.07

CTI Restructuring $0.00 *

Venezuelan Special Items $0.01 *

Legal Settlement $0.00 *

Pension settlement charge $0.01 *

Other items ($0.11) *

Special tax items $1.49 *

Adj. Diluted EPS from continuing operations ($0.11) $0.02

Quarter Ended Sept 30,

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Proforma Long Term Debt

Bond

Original

Notional Tender Offer

Post Tender

Balance

Open Market

Repurchase

(OMR)

Amount

Post OMR

Balance

Full

Redemption

Post Full

Redemption

Balance

5.75% March 2018$250 $109 $141 $35 $106 $106 $0

4.20% July 2018$250 $74 $176 $44 $132 $132 $0

6.50% March 2019$350 $68 $282 $44 $238 - $238

6.60% March 2020$500 $50 $450 $40 $410 - $410

7.875% Aug 2022$500

-$500

-$500

-$500

7.00% March 2023$500

-$500

-$500

-$500

8.95% March 2043$250

-$250

-$250

-$250

Total$2,600 $301 $2,299 $163 $2,136 $238 $1,898

$ in millions

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