CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc. · Avon at-a-glance North Latin America $0.9Bn 15% Europe Middle East...
Transcript of CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc. · Avon at-a-glance North Latin America $0.9Bn 15% Europe Middle East...
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CFO & COO Avon Products, Inc.
Presented At Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s
November 29, 20162
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Information
Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts may be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the federal securities laws that involve potential
events, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Words such as “projects,” “estimates,” “forecasts,” “believes,” “intends,” “expects,”
“anticipates,” and similar expressions (including their negative counterparts) are intended to identify many of these forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements are based upon information currently available to management and management's perception thereof as of the date hereof. The events, risks and
uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements are detailed from time to time in reports filed by Avon Products, Inc. with the Securities and Exchange
Commission, including Forms 8‐K, 10‐Q, and 10‐K. Some forward‐looking statements in this presentation include and concern our outlook and performance, cost and
cost savings, competitive advantages, various strategies and initiatives (including our transformation plan), strategic partnerships and transactions, and organization
and structure. These forward‐looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, levels of activity, performance or
achievement of Avon to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward‐looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include,
but are not limited to, our ability to improve our financial and operational performance, the possibility of business disruption, competitive uncertainties and general
economic and business conditions in our markets, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. Any forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date
they are made.
Forward-looking statements are not, and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be accurate
indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those
expressed in forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update any such forward‐looking statements to reflect future events or developments.
This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. A “non-GAAP financial measure” is defined as a numerical measure of a company's financial
performance that excludes or includes amounts so as to be different than the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP
in the statement of income, balance sheet or statement of cash flows of the company. Avon has provided in the appendix to this presentation a reconciliation of non-
GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Please see the appendix at the end of this presentation for a reconciliation of
certain non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation.
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We are the world’s #1 Direct Selling Beauty
Company
$6 billion in net sales
6 million active Representatives
Sales operations in 57 countries and territories,
with distribution in 15 more countries
We sell 2.7 billion units annually, fulfilling
103 million orders2
Our Top 10 markets account for nearly
70% of revenues3
Avon at-a-glance
North LatinAmerica$0.9Bn
15%
Europe Middle East
Africa$2.2Bn
38%
Asia Pacific$0.6Bn
10%
South LatinAmerica$2.1Bn
36%
Revenue by Region1LTM 9/30/16
Avon proudly stands for Beauty, Innovation, Optimism, and above all for Women
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Source: Euromonitor International Ltd.; Company financials and filings.1Percentages do not add to 100% as regional revenues exclude revenue from other operating segments and business activities, and due to rounding.2Units sold and number of unique orders in a sales campaign for LTM September 30, 2016.3Based on LTM September 30, 2016 revenues.
Growing categories and industry
Beauty & Personal Care categories:
Reached $426Bn in annual sales globally in 2015
Grown for 15+ consecutive years
Continues to grow steadily at 5% annually
Direct Selling industry:
Reached $131Bn in sales in 2015
Has grown at 5% annually for the last five years
Beauty & Personal Care is the #1 Direct Selling category
7Source: Euromonitor International Ltd., World Federation of Direct Selling Associations (2015), and Company financials.
Compelling and Attractive Product Offering Across Various Price Points
Portfolio is focused on beauty
Cleansers &
Toners
Moisturizers
Eye Care
Treatments
Fashion Jewelry
Watches
Apparel & Footwear
Accessories
Perfume
Shower Gel
Body Sprays
Body Lotion
Powder
Deodorant
Lips
Eyes
Face
Nails
Tools & Brushes
Bath & Shower
Body
Foot Care
Sun Care
Hair Care
Housewares
Gifts and decorative products
Entertainment and leisure products
Children’s products
Nutritional products
Beauty ($4.2Bn)
74% of Portfolio by Sales
Fashion ($0.9Bn)
15% of Portfolio by Sales
Skincare (including Personal Care) Fragrance Color
Home ($0.6Bn)
11% of Portfolio by Sales
Sales
Drivers
Skincare can lead to regular repeat purchases and
earnings for Representatives daily
use products
Fashion & Home brings incremental sales through seasonal
renewal and gifting opportunities
Fragrance is akey driver of
Representative earnings and can be
easy to sell
Color is a reason
to call on customers with every brochure
by providing newness and
novelty
Personal Careprovides low cost
trial, high velocity & repeat purchase
opportunities, specifically daily
use products
Key
Brands
Key
Products
Note: Figures based on LTM September 30, 2016.
Source: Company website, Company filings, and other publicly available information.
Category
Sample
Products
Category
Strategy
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Upper Mass
Mass
Value
Leadership Positions in Key Markets and Categories
Top 10 Markets
Avon holds strong Market Share positions globally
All channels(retail & direct selling)
Brazil Mexico Russia Colombia Argentina Turkey South AfricaPolandUK
#2 #1 #1#1#2 #1 #1#1#1Direct Selling #1
Philippines
2133 3 5 235+Skin Care 1 22
1 35+ 1 33 3 22Color Cosmetics 1
3 2 132 1 2 25+1Fragrance
Source: Euromonitor International Ltd. - Represents 2015 data
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Creating Investor Value
Cerberus Partnership
Catalyst for change
Improve Operational Discipline & Execution
SeparateNA business
Unlock Valuein International Growth Markets
c
Transformation Plan
Disciplined execution
Invest in Growth
Improve Financial Resilience
Drive out Cost
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Three-year Transformation Plan
Media Investments & Social Selling
Implementation
Invest in Growth ($350MM)
Invest in our Brand & Beauty Categories
Improve Representative Engagement
Bring Social Selling to Scale
IT & Service Model Evolution
Implementation of Operating
Model and Supply Chain
Improvements
(annual run-rate benefit)
$350MMDrive out Cost ($350MM)
Improve Operating Model
Optimize Supply Chain Network
Improve Financial Resilience
Cerberus Investment
Dividend Suspension
Opportunistically Repay Debt / De-lever
Tax Planning
Strengthen Balance Sheet
2015 2016 2017 2018
$150MM
$200MM
Description
Primary focus to fuel growth
Continued focus to fund
Transformation
Focus builds into 2017
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We are on track to deliver against our transformation savings commitment
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Transformation Plan Savings
Rationalization of Manufacturing Network
Sourcing Spend Optimization
Rationalization of Distribution Network
Reduce Corporate and Regional structures
Shift Costs out of hard currencies to align
with revenue
Create scale and efficiency benefits in
commercial model
Supply Chain and SourcingOperating Model
We have also improved financial resilience by extending our debt maturity profile and maintaining substantial liquidity
$500$350
$500 $500$250
$400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043
Divested Liz Earle business and used proceeds to
repay 2016 notes.
Suspended shareholder dividend.
Issued $500 million secured first lien notes due
2022 at a coupon of 7.875%.
Completed tender resulting in $301 million of bonds
being retired.
Repurchased $163 million in the open market in
October.
Issued notices of prepayment for the March 2018
and July 2018 notes.
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Senior Unsecured Notes Senior Secured Notes Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400MM)
Financial Resilience Initiatives
Financial Resilience Highlights
Debt Maturities Pre-Debt Refinancing ($MM)
6.3 yrs.
7.8 yrs.
Proforma Debt Maturities ($MM)
Senior Unsecured Notes Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400MM)
0$238
$410 $500 $500 $250
$400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043
Improve Representative Engagement Bring Social Selling to ScaleInvest in Beauty & Brands
We are Fueling Growth through Investing in Our Brands, Improving Engagement and Bringing Social Selling to Scale
Invest in Growth
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We will focus on our top 40 Brands
Strengthen the Avon Brand
Continue to build innovative pipeline
Color Skincare Fragrance
16% growth
in total global social
media reach in just 6
months!
105 Million Video
Views
Avon is the #3 Beauty Brand
on Facebook with 18.7M fans
Execute disciplined pricing
Our long-term financial goals
Long-Term Financial Goals
Metrics Long-Term Financial Goals
Revenue Growth Mid single-digit C$ Revenue growth
Representative
Growth
Low single-digit Active Representative
growth
Adjusted
Operating Margin
Low double-digit Adjusted Operating
Margin
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3.9% OM
2016 Total Avon – Q3 Actuals
Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015 – F$MM
($90)($104)
Q3'15 Q3'16
+310 bps
+$44M
($0.11)
+$0.02
Q3'15 Q3'16
Adj. Operating Profit2
Adj. EPS2 Cash from Ops YTD
($14M)
+$0.13
Revenue
• 8 of top 10 markets grew in
local currency
Adj. Operating Profit
• Revenue leverage, cost
savings, pricing and lower
expenses more than offset
270bps of FX headwinds
Cash from Ops YTD
• -$14M vs PY driven by
timing of payments,
increased AR and a 2016
pension contribution
Adj. EPS
• +$0.13 vs PY due to higher
Adj. Operating Profit and
better FX below the line
$1,436$1,409
Q3'15 Q3'16
-1.9%
Revenue Growth
+3.6%1
$55$99
Q3'15 Q3'16
7.0% OM
181. Constant Currency Revenue year over year change (C$2016 rates).
2. Refer to Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP to Adjusted figures.
Q3 2016 Reportable Segment Performance
Revenue Growth by Reportable Segment
(Q3 2016 vs Q3 2015 – F$MM)
$497 $476
Q3 '15 Q3 '16
(4%)
+2%
EMEA
$146 $133
Q3 '15 Q3 '16
(9%)
(7%)
APAC
+9%
$571 $595
Q3 '15 Q3 '16
+4%
SOLA
$210 $197
Q3 '15 Q3 '16
(6%)
+3%
NOLA
Source: Company financials and filings.
= Constant Currency Revenue year over year change (C$2016 rates).
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$1,947
$1,569 $1,614 $1,519 $1,436
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Sep-16
Pro forma Net Debt Profile (F$MM)
Substantial Liquidity Available
Liquidity Profile
($511)
Total Debt1,2 $3,137 $2,659 $2,550 $2,206 $1,937
Cash or
Equivalents1$1,190 $1,090 $936 $687 $501
Net D
eb
t
Source: Company financials and filings1Total debt and cash as of September 30, 2016 are pro forma for the $163 million debt reduction in October 2016 and $238 million debt reduction in November2Total debt 2012 – 2015 excludes debt issuance cost; September 2016 debt includes debt issuance costs
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Liquidity Analysis (F$MM)
Available Liquidity as of September 30, 2016 (Current and Pro forma1)
$501
$867
$400
($34)$902
$1,268
CASH AND CASH
EQUIVALENTS
SECURED
REVOLVING
CREDIT FACILITY
LETTERS OF
CREDIT
AVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY
Current Pro Forma
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Avon’s Capital Structure
Capital Structure (F$MM)Proforma
Debt Maturities (F$MM)
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1.Debt and Cash as of September 30, 2016 are pro forma for the $163 million debt reduction in October 2016 and $238 million debt reduction in November2.Revolver and Senior Secured Notes are secured by Avon International Operations, Inc. (AIO), which is a 100% owned indirect subsidiary of Avon Products, Inc.3 Debt shown at principal value, including debt issuance costs.4 Refer to Appendix for reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA.
Senior Unsecured Notes Senior Secured Notes
Secured Revolving Credit
Facility ($400MM)
0
$238
$410 $500 $500
$250
$400
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2043
($ in millions) Proforma1
Effective Rate Maturity 9/30/16
Cash and Cash Equivalents $501
Secured Revolving Credit Facility ($400) L+ 275bps 6/5/20 $0
New Senior Secured Notes 7.875% 8/15/22 $500
Total Avon International Operations Debt(2) $500
6.500% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 6.50% 3/1/19 238
4.600% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 6.60% 3/15/20 410
5.000% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 7.00% 3/15/23 500
6.950% Senior Unsecured (Unguaranteed) Notes 8.95% 3/15/43 250
Other Debt -- 39
Total Consolidated Debt3 $1,937
Cerberus Convertible Preferred Equity 435
Market Capitalization (9/30/16) 2,476
Total Capitalization $4,848
LTM 9/30/16 Adjusted EBITDA (4) $514
LTM 9/30/16 Interest Expense, net 117
Credit Statistics(4):
Total Avon International Operations Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 1.0x
Net Avon International Operations Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (0.0x)
Total Consolidated Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 3.8x
Net Consolidated Debt / Adjusted EBITDA 2.8x
Adjusted EBITDA / Interest 4.4x
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($ in millions) Year to Date LTM
2015 2016 Q4'15
Sept 30,
2016 9/30/2016
Income (loss) from continuing operations,
net of tax ($668) $36 ($15) ($84) ($99)
Income taxes 699 38 22 72 94
Income (loss) from continuing operations,
before taxes $31 $75 $7 ($12) ($4)
Interest expense, net 26 31 30 88 117
Loss/(Gain) on extinguishment of debt 6 (4) - (4) (4)
Other expense, net 29 10 26 143 169
Gain on sale (46) - - - -
Operating Profit $45 $112 $63 $215 $278
CTI Restructuring (2) 14 21 70 91
Venezuelan Special Items 6 - 2 - 2
FCPA accrual & Legal Settlement - (27) - (27) (27)
Pension settlement charge 6 - 1 - 1
Other items - - 3 - 3
Asset impairment and other charges - - 7 - 7
Adj. Operating Profit (Adj EBIT) $55 $99 $97 $258 $355
Depreciation & Amortization 30 29 29 85 114
Non-Cash Stock Based Compensation 17 7 22 23 45
Adj. EBITDA $102 $134 $148 $366 $514
Quarter Ended Sept 30,
Adjustments
EBITDA and Operating Profit Reconciliation
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• Avon has recorded costs to implement (“CTI”) restructuring
related to the Transformation Plan, IT infrastructure
outsourcing, and cost savings initiatives
• Venezuelan Special items include the costs and charges
related to Venezuela being designated as a highly inflationary
economy and the impacts of the devaluations of its currency
• Legal settlement related to professional services
• Settlement charges associated with the U.S. defined benefit
pension plan
• Transaction-related costs associated with the planned
separation of North America that were included in continuing
operations
• Non-cash impairment charges associated with goodwill of the
Company’s Egypt business in 2015
• Non-cash expense, associated with stock based employee
compensation
Notes
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3
4
7
5
1
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
88
Amounts are predominantly foreign exchange gains and
losses, including the impact of Venezuelan currency
devaluations, and to a lesser extent the amortization of
costs associated with debt financings. The foreign exchange
gains and losses are caused by the fluctuation of exchange
rates on intercompany financings as well as on
intercompany and third party working capital balances,
denominated in another currency
Earnings Per Share Reconciliation
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• Avon has recorded costs to implement (“CTI”) restructuring
related to the Transformation Plan, IT infrastructure
outsourcing, and cost savings initiatives
• Venezuelan Special items include the costs and charges
related to Venezuela being designated as a highly inflationary
economy and the impacts of the devaluations of its currency
• Legal settlement related to professional services
• Settlement charges associated with the U.S. defined benefit
pension plan
• Gain on sale of Liz Earle and impact of extinguishment of debt
Valuation allowances for the full amount of the Company’s
U.S. deferred tax assets, as well as for certain deferred tax
assets outside of the U.S.
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4
5
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2
3
4
5
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*For the quarter ended September 30, 2016, the diluted EPS impact for each Non-GAAP item on the table above is not provided due to the participation rights of the Series C
convertible preferred stock. The Reported and Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations are calculated independently and factor in the participation rights of the Series C
convertible preferred stock, and, therefore, would cause the amounts not to sum to Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations.
Adjustments($ in millions)
2015 2016
Diluted EPS from continuing operations ($1.51) $0.07
CTI Restructuring $0.00 *
Venezuelan Special Items $0.01 *
Legal Settlement $0.00 *
Pension settlement charge $0.01 *
Other items ($0.11) *
Special tax items $1.49 *
Adj. Diluted EPS from continuing operations ($0.11) $0.02
Quarter Ended Sept 30,
Proforma Long Term Debt
Bond
Original
Notional Tender Offer
Post Tender
Balance
Open Market
Repurchase
(OMR)
Amount
Post OMR
Balance
Full
Redemption
Post Full
Redemption
Balance
5.75% March 2018$250 $109 $141 $35 $106 $106 $0
4.20% July 2018$250 $74 $176 $44 $132 $132 $0
6.50% March 2019$350 $68 $282 $44 $238 - $238
6.60% March 2020$500 $50 $450 $40 $410 - $410
7.875% Aug 2022$500
-$500
-$500
-$500
7.00% March 2023$500
-$500
-$500
-$500
8.95% March 2043$250
-$250
-$250
-$250
Total$2,600 $301 $2,299 $163 $2,136 $238 $1,898
$ in millions
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