CERIS- CNR

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

28th- 29th September 200628th- 29th September 2006

Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific Impact of FTA activities in implementing specific national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint: national R&D programmes from a NSI viewpoint:

some results from a survey in Europesome results from a survey in Europe

Monica CariolaMonica Cariola

National Research Council of ItalyNational Research Council of Italy

CerisCerisCNRCNRInstitute for Economic Research on Firms and GrowthInstitute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth

CERIS- CNR

This work analyses the main results of one of the basic tasks on FTA activities of the

European project “iMERA (implementing the Metrology European Research Area)” started

in 2005, a 3-year project funded by the European Commission within the ERA-NET

scheme

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Main purpose of iMERAMain purpose of iMERA

to enable National Governments to to enable National Governments to increase the increase the National and European impactNational and European impact

of their research investments in Metrologyof their research investments in Metrology

CERIS- CNR

Within the iMERA ProjectWithin the iMERA Project

AA specific task specific task is aimed to provide an is aimed to provide an evaluationevaluation of : of :

the processes of metrology and the processes of metrology and technologytechnology foresight foresight in Europe in Europe

their impacttheir impact on the national on the national programmes for long term planning programmes for long term planning of metrological activitiesof metrological activities

CERIS- CNR

PurposePurpose

to set the grounds for the post-iMERA post-iMERA institutions, to create a common institutions, to create a common European ForesightEuropean Foresight in order to

harmonise procedures and results

…….even if National Foresights can still .even if National Foresights can still

survivesurvive

CERIS- CNR

Before iMERA ProjectBefore iMERA Project

EUROMET

National National LevelLevel

NMIs(National Metrology Institutes )

Government

Stakeholders

FORESIGHT

CERIS- CNR

Post - iMERAPost - iMERA

European ForesightEuropean Foresight

NMIs Government

Stakeholders

FORESIGHFORESIGHTT

National Level

NMIs Government

Stakeholders

FORESIGHFORESIGHTT

National Level

NMIs Government

Stakeholders

FORESIGHFORESIGHTT

National Level

NMIs Government

Stakeholders

FORESIGHFORESIGHTT

National Level

EUROMETEUROMET

CERIS- CNR

1° STEP1° STEP

a a SurveySurvey onon national foresight national foresight processesprocesses on Metrology R&D on Metrology R&D in in

European CountriesEuropean Countries

CERIS- CNR

Some data on the surveySome data on the survey

• Questionnaire sent on July 2005 to all EUROMET members

• Responses from 19 countries19 countries (58%): 14 partners, 5 non-partners iMERA

• Metrology foresight studies/processes in their Country (as declared):

• YesYes 14 (74% 14 (74% of respondentsof respondents))• NoNo 3 (16%)3 (16%)• No, but.. No, but.. 2 (10%)2 (10%)

CERIS- CNR

Questionnaire structureQuestionnaire structure

• Part APart A:: general questions focusing on Metrology Foresight (type a1type a1), but listing also other relevant studies useful for long term planning (type a2type a2) -Answers from all respondent Answers from all respondent CountriesCountries

• Part BPart B:: specific questions related to metrology foresight (type a1type a1) - (one questionnaire for each study listed in Part A), ranging from 1 to 7 studies per Countryranging from 1 to 7 studies per Country

• Part CPart C:: specific questions related to other foresight studies (type a3type a3) - Answers from 9 Answers from 9 countriescountries

CERIS- CNR

Foresight studies/processes carried out or used in each Country (as declared)

Respondent NMIs

CountryiMERA Project

partnerMetrology Foresight

Type of Foresight

        a1 a2 a3

BEV Austria   N - - -

CMI Czech Rep. X Y 1 - -

COSMT Czech Rep. X Y - - 1

DFM Denmark X Y 4 3 -

MIKES Finland X Y 1 1 1

LNE France X N/Y 14 5  

PTB Germany X Y - 2 7

NML-EI Ireland   Y 3 - -

IMGC Italy X N/Y 1 - 2

NMi Netherlands X Y 3 - 1

JV Norway X N/Y - - 2

GUM Poland X Y 1 - -

IPQ Portugal   N - - -

ZMDM Serbia & Montenegro   N - - -

SMU Slovakia X Y 1 - 1

MIRS Slovenia X Y 1 2 -

CEM Spain   Y - 4  

SP (**) Sweden X Y 1 - 1

METAS Switzerland X Y 1 - -

NPL (*) UK X Y 3 1 2

19 Countries TOTAL 35 18 18

CERIS- CNR

Group MethodGroup Method

1. Identifying Issues a. Environmental Scanning b. SWOT Analysis c. Issue Surveys

2. Extrapolative Approaches a. Trend Extrapolation b. Simulation Modelling c. Genius Forecasting d. Delphi

3. Creative Approaches a. Brainstorming b. Expert Panels

c. Cross‑Impact Analysis d. Scenarios

4. Prioritisation a. Critical (and Key) Technologies

b. Technology Roadmapping

Methods used in Methods used in Foresight Foresight (from I.Miles, M.Keenan)(from I.Miles, M.Keenan)

CERIS- CNR

Part A - FTA relevant for metrologyPart A - FTA relevant for metrology

MethodologiesMethodologies more used more used to assess needsto assess needs arising from:arising from:

• Industrial/societal DevelopmentsIndustrial/societal Developments1. Environmental Scanning (88%), mainly through of stakeholders, CIPM studies and Other Foresight studies

2. Expert Panels (56%)

• New areasNew areas1. Environmental Scanning (73%), mainly

through Consultation of stakeholders and other foresight studies from industrial sectors

2. Genius Forecasting (46%) • Longer term work on the SILonger term work on the SI

1. Environmental Scanning (62%), mainly through CIPM studies

2. Genius Forecasting (46%).

CERIS- CNR

NMIs participation in most of cases (80%) Extent: mainly National (72%) Time horizon: mainly 3-5 years (52%), 6-10 yrs.

(44%) Scope: mainly General (56%), then by EUROMET TC Promotion: mainly by Government/Ministry (44%),

then National Metrology organisation (40%) Methodologies:

Environmental Scanning (57%)

Expert Panels (48%) Brainstorming (44%) Genius Forecasting (35%)

Frequency: periodical/one-off (44% both); 0-3 years ago (72%)

Outcomes: mainly Papers/Reports (85%), workshops (44%)

Part B: Specific Metrology Foresight Part B: Specific Metrology Foresight studiesstudies

CERIS- CNR

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Environ. Scanning

Expert Panels

Brainstorming

Genius Forec.

Issue Surveys

Tech.Roadmap

SWOT Analysis

Trend Extrap.

Scenarios

Critical/Key Tech.

Delphi

Cross‑Impact A.

Other

Simulation Mod.

Methodology used Direct participation

Methods used in Foresight processes and Methods used in Foresight processes and direct participation of NMIsdirect participation of NMIs

CERIS- CNR

Use of Foresight Outcomes for planning NMI activity:

Not very much (30%) Very much and Sufficiently (both 22%)

Modification of NMI previous plans after Foresight: Not very much (41%) Sufficiently (30 %)

Use of Foresight Outcomes for national Prioritisation

Yes, 81%

New scientific co-operations thanks to Foresight: Sufficiently (36 %)

Not very much (32%)

Co-operations in new areas thanks to Foresight Not very much (32%) Sufficiently and Much (both 27 %)

Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (1)(1)

CERIS- CNR

Foresight helpfulness for development of metrology in general

Sufficiently (44 %) Not very much (26%)

Foresight helpfulness for development of specific metrology fields

Much (44 %) Sufficiently (26%)

Foresight helpfulness for the policy maker

Much (30 %) Sufficiently (26%)

Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (2)(2)

CERIS- CNR

Tentative classification of the Tentative classification of the reported foresight studiesreported foresight studies

““True” foresight studies -True” foresight studies - 17 from 11 countries (ranging from 1 to 4 per country)

Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs -NMIs - 10 from 6 countries (ranging from 1 to 3 per country)

Market/Customer surveys -Market/Customer surveys - 3 from 2 countries

Other foresight studies -Other foresight studies - 12 from 8 countries

Specific research projects/feasibility Specific research projects/feasibility studies -studies - 19 from one country

Not classifiable in previous categories -Not classifiable in previous categories - 10 from 3 countries

CERIS- CNR

Some conclusionsSome conclusions

Large Large variety variety of national foresight of national foresight

processesprocesses

Many reported studies have the Many reported studies have the characteristics of characteristics of ForecastingForecasting and and Strategic Strategic PlanningPlanning rather than of formal Foresight rather than of formal Foresight exercises exercises

The questionnaire itself has had an The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged acknowledged learning effectlearning effect

Central role of NMICentral role of NMI motivated experts, motivated experts, but occasion for NMIs to increase their but occasion for NMIs to increase their opening outwardsopening outwards

CERIS- CNR

The Need for a joint European Metrology The Need for a joint European Metrology Foresight is confirmedForesight is confirmed

but has to be improved….but has to be improved….

internal knowledge of foresight processes internal knowledge of foresight processes their impact on R&D programmestheir impact on R&D programmes most effective way to conduct FTAmost effective way to conduct FTA networks between NMIs, Stakeholders networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and Governments, inside and outside the and Governments, inside and outside the CountriesCountries