CEO Business Overview...$0 $3 $5 $8 $10-$10 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005...
Transcript of CEO Business Overview...$0 $3 $5 $8 $10-$10 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005...
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CEO Business OverviewDecember 2017 – January 2018
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Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures
This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important risks and uncertainties. It may also contain financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).
Refer to Deere’s reports filed on Forms 8-K (current), 10-Q (quarterly), and 10-K (annual) for information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from information in this presentation and for information reconciling financial measures to GAAP. Past performance may not be representative of future results.
Guidance noted in the following slides was effective as of the company’s most recent earnings release and earnings call (22 November 2017). Nothing in this presentation should be construed as reaffirming or disaffirming such guidance.
This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any of Deere’s securities.
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Table of ContentsSlide
Summary Message 4
John Deere Strategy 18
Use-of-Cash 29
Supplemental InformationGlobal Markets 34John Deere Financial Services 45Agriculture Fundamentals 50Construction & Forestry Fundamentals 56
Appendix 60
4
Summary Message
5
“Deere’s ability to deliver consistently strong financial results is proof of our success building a more durable business model. Even as we find continued ways to
make our operations more efficient and profitable, we are focused on the future through investments in technology and advanced products and selective acquisitions that complement our strengths
and expand our global presence.”
- Sam Allen, Chairman and CEO
6
-$3
$0
$3
$5
$8
$10
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Per Share$
Bill
ions
Net Sales Diluted EPS
Strong EPS* performance during recent downturn− U.S. & Canada Large Ag** industry down ~ 60% in 2016 vs. 2013
Net Sales and Diluted EPSDeere & Company
* Earnings Per Share** Tractors > 220 hp and combinesSource: Association of Equipment Manufacturers, October 2016
7
Exceptional Operating Performance – SVAEquipment Operations
* Shareholder Value Added; for reconciliation to GAAP see “SVA* Reconciliation to GAAP” slide in Appendix
$1.2 billion SVA* in 2017
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Adoption of SVA Model
8
Exceptional Operating Performance – Net Cash FlowEquipment Operations
* Shareholder Value AddedNote: Over $8 billion in Pension/OPEB contributions from 2001-2017
$2.4 billion Net Cash Flow in 2017
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ M
illio
ns
Sale of Trade Receivables to John Deere Financial
Adoption of SVA* Model
9
Net Sales by Product CategoryAgriculture & Turf – Fiscal 2013 vs. Fiscal 2017
Fiscal 2013Agriculture & Turf
$29.1 billion
Fiscal 2017Agriculture & Turf
$20.2 billion
Small Ag
Turf Turf
Large Ag
Small Ag
Large Ag
Other
10
Fiscal 2018 ForecastEquipment Operations
($ billions except where noted)Fiscal 2018Forecast*
Net Sales ~ 22%
Price realization
Currency translation
Wirtgen
~ 1 point
~ 2 points
~ 12 points
Net Income (attributable to Deere & Company) ~ $2.6
Cash Flow (from operations) ~ $3.8
* Includes estimated data based on the 1Q 2018 close of the Wirtgen acquisitionSource: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
11
Investment in New Products and Technologies
Source: Deere & Company and competitor SEC filings
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Deere R&D $ Deere % Competitor A % Competitor B %
Consistently spending at or above competition on technology and innovation
R&D as Percent of Net Sales
$ M
illio
ns
12
Precision AgThe Future of Farming Has Always Been Led by John Deere
Our commitment to game-changing innovation makes farming easier, smarter and more precise
13
Wirtgen Acquisition
– Strategic rationale: allows market entrance into road construction equipment, providing greater exposure to the transportation sector and enhancing global presence for Deere construction segment
– Timing: acquisition completed 1 December 2017
14
Transaction provides greater exposure to transportation infrastructure, a faster growing, less cyclical sector than broader construction
− Attractive margin opportunity with significant growth tailwinds
− Road construction AND repair emphasized in many countries, resulting in a large installed base of equipment
Road Construction Equipment Spend Construction vs. Transportation Spend
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014Spe
ndin
g In
dex
(200
4=10
0)
Total Construction Spending Total Transporatation Spending
Source: BCG; indexed using 2016 figures Source: IHS Global Insight
0
50
100
150
200
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Total Transportation Spending
Wirtgen AcquisitionAttractive Industry Fundamentals
15
Acquisitions
Blue River Technology– Strategic rationale: accelerates implementation of machine
learning technology that enables farm management decisions at the plant level
– Timing: acquisition completed 12 September 2017
Mazzotti– Strategic rationale: accelerates European market reach with
innovative spraying equipment and adds engineering expertise– Timing: acquisition completed 26 June 2017
16
Integration Update
Monosem– Strategic rationale: accelerates European market reach in
precision planting equipment and adds engineering expertise– Timing: acquisition completed 3 February 2016– Integration Update: Deere Gen 4 Display in Monosem brand;
leveraging/combining Deere and Monosem technologies to address additional market opportunities; Deere and Monosem collaboration on cultivator earned silver medal at Agritechnica 2017
Hagie Manufacturing– Strategic rationale: allows market entrance into high-clearance
spraying equipment that extends window for applying nutrients– Timing: Joint Venture announced 29 March 2016; Deere acquired
80% ownership of Hagie Manufacturing– Integration Update: Deere engines in STS14 & STS16; factory-
installed Precision Ag technology
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“We’re confident these steps put Deere in prime position tobenefit from the world’s increasing need for food, shelter and infrastructure and provide value to customers and investors for years to come.”
- Sam Allen, Chairman and CEO
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John Deere Strategy
19
Population growing in size and affluence– By 2050, world population will reach ~ 9.8 billion, up from ~ 7.6 billion today– Large middle class emerging in China, India and other parts of Asia
Opportunity #1: Feeding the world– Agricultural output needs to nearly double over the first half of the century– Natural resources under strain, especially water and land
Opportunity #2: Massive urbanization– Migration from rural areas creates need for infrastructure development– By 2050, nearly 70% of the global population will live in urban areas, up from
more than 50% today
Long-Term Macroeconomic Tailwinds – Still Intact
Source: UN, June 2017
20
21
Easier. Smarter. More Precise.Bigger. Faster. Stronger.
Precision AgricultureTraditional Agriculture
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Better machine performance
Precision AgEquipment + Technology + Services
Better job performance Better agronomic decisions
– Ensure machines function as expected– Maximize machine performance & uptime
− John Deere Connected Support uses predictive analytics to generate notifications and repair instructions to minimize machine downtime
– Ease of use increases operator consistency
– Achieve quality outcomes for each job– Coordinate machines to execute jobs more
effectively and efficiently– Monitor job progress and adjust
operational plans in near real time
– See, collaborate and direct information when needed and where needed with an online set of tools
– Automate collection and transfer of data from the machine to platform
– Manage the farm from anywhere and any device
23
+Precision Ag Equipment
Precision Ag Technology
Differentiated Dealer Channel+ =
23
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Innovative New ProductsLarge Ag Equipment
S700 Series Combine– Combine Advisor™ automatically adjusts settings to maintain ideal
performance target as conditions change– Gen 4 CommandCenter™ 4600 display provides superior user-friendly interface– ActiveYield™ eliminates time-consuming manual yield sensor calibration
2230 Field Cultivator/ 2330 Mulch Finisher– Increased working widths up to 69’6” and working speed up to 10 mph,
covering more acres per day during critical tillage and planting windows– Delivers level, smooth finish for accurate seed placement and even emergence– TruSet™ tillage technology allows depth and pressure adjustment from cab
CP690 Cotton Picker / CS690 Cotton Stripper– Integrated moisture sensing technology and round module weighing provide
real time crop data to the operator– Onboard Harvest ID, Cotton Pro™ and RFID tags embedded within the round
module wrap allow for transfer of crop data wirelessly, providing traceability from the field to ginned bale
25
Innovative New ProductsTractors
5R Series Tractors– 4 models (90 to 125 HP); unique combination in the less than 130 HP
segment: comfort, compactness, and capability– Proven world-record fuel efficiency (diesel only) measured by the DLG
(Powermix); “best-ever” result under 150 HP segment
3036EN Tractors– Narrow platform tractor; well-suited for India vineyard & orchard farming– Best-in-class fuel efficiency; excellent combination of power & efficiency– Well-positioned vs. competition in target segment
2025R Tractors– Mower deck can be installed and removed 3 times faster than competition– 37% increase in back-up speed allows users to mow and push snow faster– Increased comfort, ease of use, and versatility
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Innovative New ProductsSmall Ag, Turf and Utility Equipment
0 Series Round Balers– MegaWideHC2: 2.2 meter precutter for 4-ft and industry first for 5-ft balers;
precut bales reduce time for processing hay and maintaining feed quality– MegaWideHC2 feed system, larger baffle, twin rotor, self-cleaning drop floor
increases throughput to get hay up in the critical window to maximize quality
100 Series Lawn Tractors– Most comfortable lawn tractor in its class– Patented Easy Change: 30-second oil change system with no tools and no mess– Exclusive cut height adjustment that makes it easier to get on and off tractor
XUV 835/865 Series– Fully-integrated operator station; best-in-class HVAC and comfort– Outstanding terrain stability and ride control, cargo volume, and cargo
management – Available in gas and diesel fuel
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Innovative New ProductsConstruction Equipment
950K Crawler Dozer– Expands Production Class Dozer line-up with a second offering available in
both outside-dozer and power-angle-tilt (PAT) configurations – 950K PAT is the industry’s largest six-way blade with the capability for
mass excavation combined with the versatility to finish grade
620G/GP and 622G/GP Motor Graders– Broadens the motor grader line-up with two economical models targeted for
smaller contractors and municipalities – Dual joystick controls provide precision and comfort during operation as well
as customer choice of three control types
1050K PL Crawler Dozer (Pipelayer-Ready)– Purpose-built pipelayer-ready crawler dozer ships from the factory ready to
accept the customer’s choice of side boom– Features a bolt-on design that simplifies side boom installation, improving
reliability and reducing setup times
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Innovative New ProductsForestry Equipment
L-Series Skidder – Gen 1.5– Horsepower increases across all models has positioned Deere as the most
powerful skidder on the market– New 17.5 ft2 grapple is a popular option for 748L customers and delivers
the largest range of grapple sizes on the market
1110/1210/1510G Forwarder– Timbermatic™ F-16 or CommandCenter™ control system, more powerful,
efficient engines for improved productivity and lower daily operating costs– Configurable joystick patterns have increased adoption of Intelligent Boom
Control™ for North American operators
2144G DHSP Swing Machine– Purpose built in Brazil for working in Latin American eucalyptus plantations,
the 2144G offers power and agility ideally suited for this application– 6.8 liter engine, durable undercarriage, and best-in-class cab design with
superior visibility help to differentiate this machine
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Use-of-Cash
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Manage the balance sheet, including liquidity, to support a rating that provides access to low-cost and readily available short- and long-term funding mechanisms Reflects the strategic nature of our financial services operation
Committed to “A” Rating
Cash from Operations
Fund Operating and Growth Needs
Common Stock Dividend
Share Repurchase
Fund value-creating investments in our businesses
Consistently and moderately raise dividend targeting a 25%-35% payout ratio of mid-cycle earnings
Consider share repurchase as a means to deploy excess cash to shareholders, once above requirements are met and repurchase is viewed as value-enhancing
Deere Use-of-Cash Priorities
31
$0.11
$0.28
$0.60
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Deere Quarterly Dividends Declared 1Q 2004 – 4Q 2017
* Adjusted for 2 for 1 stock split on 26 November 2007
Dividend raised 114% since 2010
32
Share RepurchaseAs Part of Publicly Announced Plans
* All shares adjusted for two-for-one stock split effective 26 November 2007
2004–2017:Cumulative cost of repurchases $16.4 billionShares repurchased 245.0 millionAverage repurchase price $66.96
December 2013 authorization of $8 billion:Amount remaining $3.3 billion
29 October 2017 period ended basic shares 321.8 million2017 average diluted shares 323.3 million
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
$ Billions
Mill
ions
of Sha
res*
Shares Repurchased Amount Spent
Share Repurchase
35% net share reduction since 2004
33
$4,287$8,168
$37,440
$665 $146
$10,652
$1,345
$7,848
$13,904
$621
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Beginning Cash& Cash
Equivalents(Fiscal 2004)
Cash FromOperations
Divestitures,net of
Acquisitions
Net Change inDebt and
IntercompanyBalances
CapitalExpenditures
Investment inFinancialServices
Dividends ShareRepurchase, net
of CommonStock Issuances
Other* Ending Cash &Cash
Equivalents(Fiscal 2017)
Sources and Uses of Cash Fiscal 2004-2017Equipment Operations
$ M
illio
ns
~ 58% of cash from operations returned to
shareholders
* Other includes proceeds from maturities and sales of marketable securities and purchases of marketable securities and reconciliation for non-cash items including the effect of exchange rates on cash and cash equivalentsNote: “Cash from Operations” adjusted with the adoption of FASB ASU No. 2016-09 “Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment Accounting”Source: Deere & Company SEC filings
= Source of Cash= Use of Cash
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Global Markets
35
Net Sales by Major MarketsEquipment Operations
$ Billions* U.S. & Canada not to scale with other markets
$17.4
$20.8$21.8
$20.2
$16.6$14.5 $15.1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. & Canada*
$4.4 $4.3 $4.4 $4.4$3.3 $3.2 $3.3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Western Europe
$3.6 $3.6$4.3 $4.1
$2.4 $2.4$3.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Latin America
$1.9 $2.1 $2.1 $2.0 $1.9 $1.4 $1.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Asia, Africa & Middle East
$1.4 $1.7 $1.6 $1.4 $1.0 $1.2 $1.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Central Europe & CIS
$0.8 $1.0 $0.8 $0.8 $0.6 $0.7 $0.9
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Asia Pacific, Australia & New Zealand
36
U.S. and CanadaFactory Locations
Iowa, USA• Cotton Harvesting Equipment• Planting Equipment• Spraying Equipment• Tillage Equipment• Ag Tractors• Components• Foundry• Engines• Hay & Forage Equipment• Articulated Dump Trucks• 4WD Loaders• Motor Graders• Skidders• Wheeled Feller Bunchers• Backhoes• Compact Tracked Loaders• Crawler Dozers• High-Speed Dozers• Knuckleboom Loaders• Skid Steer Loaders• Tracked Feller Bunchers• Tracked Harvesters• High Clearance Sprayers (JV)
British Columbia, Canada• Log Loaders & Specialty Products
Alberta, Canada• Remanufactured Components
North Dakota, USA• Air Seeding Equipment• Electronics• Tillage Equipment
Wisconsin, USA• Lawn & Garden Equipment• Utility Vehicles• Golf & Turf Reel Mowers
Illinois, USA• Combine Harvesters• Headers• Planting Equipment• Hydraulic Cylinders
Tennessee, USA• Lawn Tractors
North Carolina, USA• Commercial Mowers• Golf & Turf Mowers• Utility Vehicles• Hydraulic Excavators
Georgia, USA• Utility Tractors• Compact Utility Tractors
Louisiana, USA• Sugarcane Harvesting Equipment• Tractor Loaders• Scrapers• Cotton Strippers
Missouri, USA• Remanufactured Components
Kansas, USA• Power Transmission Equipment
California, USA• Satellite Receivers
37
EU 28Factory Locations
Joensuu, Finland• Wheel Forwarders• Wheel Harvesters• Forestry Attachments
GermanyMannheim• Tractors
Zweibrücken• Combines & Forage Harvesters
Stadtlohn• Headers
Bruchsal• Tractor & Harvesting Cabs
Gummersbach• Walk-Behind & Autonomous Mowers
Windhagen• Wirtgen Milling Machines, Concrete Paving, Recyclers, Surface Miners
Tirschenreuth• Hamm Compactors
Ludwigshafen• Vögele Asphalt Paving
Göppingen • Kleemann Crushers & Screens
Mulheim• Benninghoven Asphalt Plants
Madrid, Spain• Components
Arc-les-Gray, France• Balers• Ag Loaders
Largeasse, France• Planting Equipment
Saran, France• Engines
Horst, The Netherlands• Spraying Equipment
Ravenna, Italy• Sprayers
38
BrazilFactory Locations
Catalão, Brazil• Sugarcane Harvesters• Sprayers
Indaiatuba, Brazil• Backhoe Loaders• 4WD Loaders• Motor Graders• Excavators (JV)
Montenegro, Brazil• Tractors
Horizontina, Brazil• Combine Harvesters• Planters
Porto Alegre, Brazil• Wirtgen Milling Machines• Vögele Pavers• Hamm Rollers• Ciber Pavers• Ciber Asphalt Mixing Plants
39
CISFactory Locations
Domodedovo, Russia• Tractors• Combine Harvesters• Motor Graders
Orenburg, Russia• Seeding Equipment• Tillage Equipment
40
ChinaFactory Locations
Jiamusi, China• Combine Harvesters• Cotton Pickers
Tianjin (TEDA), China• 4WD Loaders• Excavators• Engines (85-254 hp)• Tractors (85-320 hp)
Ningbo, China• Tractors (30-55 hp)• Cane Harvesters
Langfang, China• Wirtgen Milling Machines• Vögele Asphalt Paving• Hamm Rollers
41
IndiaFactory Locations
Pune, India• Engines• Transmissions• Tractors (36-75 hp)• Electronics• Hamm Compactors• Kleemann Screens
Sirhind, India• Combine Harvesters
Dewas, India• Tractors (36-50 hp)
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Other RegionsFactory Locations
Ramos, Mexico• Ag Loaders• Compact Utility Tractor Loaders• Utility Tractor Cabs• Hydraulic Cylinders
Monterrey, Mexico• Rotary Cutters• Implements• Components
Saltillo, Mexico• Ag Tractors• TransaxlesTorreon, Mexico
• Axles• Engines• Electronics
Rosario, Argentina• Engines• Tractors• Combines
Kibbutz Beit Hashita, Israel• Cotton Picker Components
Tokoroa, New Zealand• Forestry Harvester Heads
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Worldwide Parts ServicesSupporting the Growth of Our Equipment Operations
Highlights:– Miami, Florida (United States)
– Directly supports the Latin America dealer network, operational November 2017
– China footprint– Strategic distribution locations to support
China market, operational 2016
– Campinas, Brazil– Expansion of existing facility, operational
March 2015
Anchor Parts Distribution CentersRegional Parts Distribution Centers or Depots
44
Engine Emissions2018 Worldwide Off-Road Emissions Regulations > 75 hp
Stage II/Tier 2
Stage IIIA/Tier 3/TREM 3A/MAR 1/China NR III
Stage IV/Final Tier 4 (> 75-750 hp)
* Includes some non-EU28 countries that follow EU28 emissions regulations
U.S. and CanadaFinal Tier 4
RussiaAg tractors: Stage II
EU28*Stage V – starting 2019
ChinaChina NR III
IndiaTREM 3A >50hp
BrazilMAR 1:• Construction equipment• Ag equipment >100hp
45
John Deere Financial Services
46
John Deere Financial ServicesSupporting the Growth of Our Equipment Operations
Owned Operations
Bank/Finance Company Partners
Retail programs through JDF not currently offered
47
John Deere Financial Services
Net Income
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
John Deere Financial (attributable to Deere & Company) Deere & Company
$ M
illio
ns
Consistent earnings throughout the cycle
48
Portfolio Composition by Segment
John Deere Financial Services
Portfolio Composition by Geography Portfolio Composition by Product
A&T84%
C&F16%
Installment and Finance
Lease55%
Wholesale/ Floorplan
19%
Revolving Credit9%
Operating Lease17%
U.S.72%
Canada11%
Europe6%
Latin America
7%
Australia3% Asia
1%
Note: Information above includes all Deere & Company lending activities worldwide. John Deere Capital Corporation is the largest lending operation of Deere & Company.
$40.0 billion Net Owned Portfolio as of 29 October 2017
49
John Deere Capital Corporation
Agriculture & Turf* Construction & Forestry
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Net Write-offs (Ag) Installments 60+DPD (Ag)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Net Write-offs (C&F) Installments 60+DPD (C&F)
* 1983–1985 includes construction; 1986-1994 includes lawn & grounds care; 2009 forward includes ag & turf equipment; as % of owned losses after dealer reserve charges Source: 1983–1994 internal reporting, 1995-2011 JDCC 10-K filings, 2012-2017 internal reporting
Continued extremely low write-offs in Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry
50
Agriculture Fundamentals
51
Global Stocks-to-Use Ratios
Source: USDA, 9 November 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017P
Cotton R
atios
CottonWheat
Corn
Soybeans
52
Source: USDA, 9 November 2017
Global Grain Supply and Demand
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Consumption Production
53
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Consumption without biofuel use
Global Grain DemandWith and Without Biofuel Use
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
Consumption with biofuel use
* Compound Annual Growth RateSource: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026, July 2017
54
U.S. Farm Cash Receipts
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
$ Bill
ions
Crops Livestock Government Payments
Source: 2001–2016: USDA, 30 August 20172017F–2018F: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
55
U.S. Farm Balance Sheet
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018F
$ Bill
ions
Farm Debt Farm Equity Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Debt to Asset Ratio (%)
Source: 1974–2016: USDA, 30 August 20172017F–2018F: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
56
Construction & Forestry Fundamentals
57
U.S. Housing Starts
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018F
Multi-Family Housing Starts Single-Family Housing Starts
Source: 1968–2016: U.S. Census Bureau, October 20172017F–2018F: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
Mill
ions
of U
nits
58
-160%
-140%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
% Total C
onstruction Spend
$ Bill
ions
*
Government Infrastructure Investment Government Investment in StructuresNonresidential Investment in Structures Residential Investment in Structures
U.S. Construction Spending
* 2009$ baseSource: 1998–2016: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, October 2017
2017F–2018F: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
59
Transportation Spend Outpacing General Construction Spending
Source: IHS Global Insight
37%Residential
31%Non-Residential
15%Energy & Health
17%Transportation
2015 Global Construction Spending ($9.5 trillion)
Global Construction Spending
Transportation Includes:
− Roads & Bridges
− Railways
− Airports
Transportation Spending:
− $1.6 trillion worldwide in 2015
Megatrend Infrastructure Drivers:
− Rapid Urbanization
− Rising Incomes
− Capital Investment in Asia 6,485.9 8,989.2 13,537.4
2000 2015 2030
Total Other Construction Transportation
14% 17% 19%
81%83%86%
60
Appendix
61
Net Sales by Product CategoryEquipment Operations – Fiscal 2017
Agriculture & Turf$20.2 billion
Construction & Forestry$5.7 billion
Small Ag
TurfCompact
Construction
Forestry
Other
Large Ag
62
-$1
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
$ Billions
$ Bill
ions
Net Sales Net Income
Much-improved performance vs. prior downturns
Net Sales and Net IncomeDeere & Company
* Tractors > 220 hp and combinesSource: Association of Equipment Manufacturers, October 2016
1981-1986 1990-1992 1998-1999 2013-2016U.S. & Canada Large Ag* ~ 60% ~ 24% ~ 35% ~ 60%Industry Decline
Deere Net Sales Decline ~ 35% ~ 16% ~ 19% ~ 33%
Net Income Decline ~ 191% ~ 91% ~ 77% ~ 57%(attributable to Deere & Company)
63
Exceptional Operating Performance - OROAEquipment Operations
* Operating Return on Operating Assets** Shareholder Value Added; for reconciliation to GAAP see “SVA* Reconciliation to GAAP” slide in Appendix
21.0% OROA* in 2017
12%
20%
28%
2001
2002
2003
200420052006
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20152016
2017
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
12% OROA (SVA** Neutral)
% of Mid-Cycle Volume80% 100% 120%
64
Fiscal 2018 Forecast
Agriculture & Turf– Deere worldwide net sales up ~ 9%– U.S. and Canada ag industry up 5-10%– EU 28 ag industry up ~ 5%– South America ag (tractors and combines) industry flat to up 5%
Construction & Forestry– Deere worldwide net sales up ~ 69%
– Wirtgen worldwide net sales up ~ 54 points– Fundamentals supportive of increased industry demand– Worldwide forestry industry flat to up 5%
John Deere Financial– Net income attributable to Deere & Company of ~ $515 million
Source: Deere & Company forecast as of 22 November 2017
65
The Wirtgen Group – 5 Premium Brands
Milling Machines Concrete Paving
Asphalt PavingCompactors
Crushers
Asphalt Plants
Road Technologies Mineral Technologies
66
End to End Road Construction Portfolio
67
SVA* Reconciliation to GAAPEquipment Operations
* Shareholder Value Added
($ millions except where noted) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Net Sales 6,479 7,663 8,830 9,640 11,082 11,926 9,701 11,169 11,077 11,703 13,349 17,673 19,401
Average Identifiable AssetsWith Inventories at LIFOWith Inventories at Standard Cost
5,4496,442
5,5516,494
6,1877,131
6,5027,488
6,6827,703
7,6728,711
7,7248,739
8,0699,039
8,7439,678
6,2297,147
5,9656,925
6,4827,477
7,2488,312
Operating ProfitPercent of Net Sales
2423.7%
84711.1%
1,00611.4%
1,12511.7%
1,40212.6%
1,47612.4%
2722.8%
6936.2%
(46)(0.4%)
4013.4%
7085.3%
1,90510.8%
1,8429.5%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFOWith Inventories at Standard Cost
4.4%3.8%
15.3%13.0%
16.3%14.1%
17.3%15.0%
21.0%18.2%
19.3%16.9%
3.5%3.1%
8.6%7.7%
(0.5%)(0.5%)
6.4%5.6%
11.9%10.2%
29.4%25.5%
25.4%22.2%
SVA Cost of Assets (773) (780) (856) (898) (924) (1,045) (1,049) (1,085) (1,162) (858) (831) (897) (998)
SVA (531) 68 150 226 477 431 (776) (392) (1,208) (457) (123) 1,008 844
($ millions except where noted) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Sales 19,884 21,489 25,803 20,756 23,573 29,466 33,501 34,998 32,961 25,775 23,387 25,885
Average Identifiable AssetsWith Inventories at LIFOWith Inventories at Standard Cost
7,5468,634
8,0929,205
9,65210,812
9,64710,950
9,19610,494
11,51612,875
13,59414,965
14,56915,924
14,11315,493
12,49113,840
11,81613,092
12,15013,421
Operating ProfitPercent of Net Sales
1,9059.6%
2,31810.8%
2,92711.3%
1,3656.6%
2,90912.3%
3,83913.0%
4,39713.1%
5,05814.5%
4,29713.0%
2,1778.4%
1,8808.0%
2,82110.9%
Operating Return on AssetsWith Inventories at LIFOWith Inventories at Standard Cost
25.2%22.1%
28.6%25.2%
30.3%27.1%
14.1%12.5%
31.6%27.7%
33.3%29.8%
32.3%29.4%
34.7%31.8%
30.4%27.7%
17.4%15.7%
15.9%14.4%
23.2%21.0%
SVA Cost of Assets (1,036) (1,094) (1,284) (1,301) (1,259) (1,545) (1,795) (1,911) (1,860) (1,661) (1,570) (1,611)
SVA 869 1,224 1,643 64 1,650 2,294 2,602 3,147 2,437 516 310 1,210