Centre for the Study of African Economies Development and Security Anke Hoeffler Centre for the...

Centre for the Study of African Economies

Development and Security

Anke Hoeffler


Department of Economics, University of Oxford


Conflicts: Global Prevalence


Conflict and War: Global Prevalence


Collier-Hoeffler Model of Civil War

Aim:

model and estimate what factors make a country more prone to large scale violent internal conflict

Method:

regression analysis

Collier and Hoeffler, 2004


Explanations of Civil War Onset

• Economics

• Political Science

• Sociology

• History

• Geography

• Demography

risk = f(history, economy, sociology ...)


Conclusions

• Little evidence for grievances as a sufficient determinant of conflict

• Economic factors are important (level, growth and structure of income, sources of finance)

• Past conflict makes a country more conflict prone


Natural Resources and the Risk of Civil War

C&H: Countries with natural resources are more conflict prone

risk

natural resources


Interpretation:

• Civil war? – recruit and maintain private army

• Finance? - natural resources

• Examples: drugs, diamonds, timber


Measurement of Natural Resources

• Natural resource exports as a % of GDP

• Point/diffuse natural resources

• Dummy variable (e.g. oil exporter)

• Natural resource rents (price-cost)

• Stock of natural resources


Where is the Wealth of Nations?

Data source: World Bank (2006) and own calculations

Region Subsoil assets/km2(in USD)

World 105,000

Africa 23,000

South Asia 53,000

LAC 95,000

MENA 361,000

East Asia&Pacific 77,000

ECA 93,000

OECD 114,000


Possible Interpretations:

• Finance

Lujala et al

• Honey Pot

Humphreys 2005, Neumeyer&de Soysa

• Weak state capacity

Fearon&Laitin 2003, Sachs&Warner 2007, Collier&Hoeffler 2009


Summary of the Evidence:

• Evidence that natural resource rich countries are conflict prone

• Measurement issues

• Results difficult to interpret, endogeneity and simultaneity problems

• Transmission channels from natural resources to civil war risk are diverse


Ecoviolence? Does natural resource scarcity cause violence?

• No current evidence for ‘ecowars’

Gleditsch, 1989; de Soysa, 2002

• Little evidence that climate change will cause more wars

Hendrix&Glaser, 2007


Duration of War

• Duration is not determined by the same variables as the initiation

• An increase in natural resource prices tends to increase the duration of war


Economic Recovery

Is there a peace dividend?

Does aid increase growth post-conflict?

Does policy improve growth post-conflict?


Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Societies

Peace dividend, about 1.1% extra growth

3-7 years during post conflict aid increases growth

Traditionally this is not what donors have done

Particularly sensitive to improvements in social policies


Post Conflict Risks

68 post-conflict episodes

46% of cases recurrence of war

40% of cases recurrence within a decade


Statistical Results

• There is no safe period during the decade• Growth is important, stagnant economies 42% risk,10%

income growth 26.9% risk• Elections shift the risk, lower in election year, higher

after, subsequent elections don’t have a different effect to first elections

• PK force absolute not relative size matters (deterrence)• Doubling expenditure reduces risk from 40% to 31%


Concluding Comments

• Correlation/causation?• Evidence that countries rich in natural resources are at

higher risk of war• Finance, honey pot, weak state capacity• Kimberley Process• Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative• Resource Charter


International Initiatives

EITIhttp://eitransparency.org/

Kimberley Processhttp://www.kimberleyprocess.com/

The Natural Resource Charterhttp://www.naturalresourcecharter.org/


Bibliography

Civil War

Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. 2004. Greed and grievance in civil wars, Oxford Economic Papers 56:663–595.

Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler and Dominic Rohner. 2009. Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 61: 1-27.

Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke and Måns Söderbom. 2004. On the Duration of Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 253-273.

Collier, Paul, Lance Elliot, Håvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis. 2003. Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank Policy Research Report. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Fearon, James and David Laitin. 2003. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war, American Political Science Review 97:75–90.

Hegre, Hårvard, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates and Nils Petter Gleditsch. 2001. Towards a democratic civil peace? American Political Science Review 95:33–48.

Miguel, E., S. Satyanath and E. Sergenti (2004), Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach, Journal of Political Economy 112:725–753.

Natural Resources and Development

Auty, Richard. 2001. Resource abundance and economic development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Collier, Paul. 2008. The Bottom Billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Isham, Jonathan, Woolcock, Michael, Pritchett, Lant and Gwen Busby. 2005. The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth. World Bank Economic Review 19(2): 141-174.

Sachs, Jeffrey and Andrew M. Warner. 2000. ‘Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth’. In Leading Issues in Economic Development, 7th ed. G.M. Meier and J.E. Rauch, Oxford: Oxford University Press.


Bibliography continued

Civil War and Natural Resources

le Billon, Philippe. 2001. The political ecology of war: natural resources and armed conflicts. Political Geography 20: 561–584.

Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. 2005. Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49: 625 - 633.

Dube, Oeindrila and Juan F. Vargas. 2006. Are All Resources Cursed? Coffee, Oil, and Armed Conflict in Colombia. Weatherhead Center of International Affairs, Harvard University, Working Paper 07-01.

Fearon, James. 2005. Primary commodities exports and civil war. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4): 483-507.

Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 1998. Armed conflict and the environment: a critique of the literature. Journal of Peace Research 35(5): 381-400.

Hendrix, Cullen and Sarah M. Glaser. 2007. Trends and triggers: Climate, climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography 26: 695-715.

Homer-Dixon, Thomas. 1999. Environment, scarcity, and violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Humphreys, Macartan. 2005. Natural resources, conflict, and conflict resolution: Uncovering the mechanisms. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4): 508-37.

Lujala, Paivi, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Elizabeth Gilmore. 2005. A diamond curse? Civil war and a lootable resource. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49:538–562.

Oyefusi, Aderoju. 2008. Oil and the Probability of Rebel Participation among Youths in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. Journal of Peace Research 45(4):539-555.

Ross, Michael L. 2004. What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41: 337-56.

de Soysa, Indra. 2002. Ecoviolence: shrinking pie, or honey pot? Global Environmental Politics 2(4): 1-34.

de Soysa, Indra and Eric Neumayer. 2007. Natural Resource Wealth and the Risk of Civil War Onset: Results from a new dataset of natural resource rents 1970-1999.Conflict Management and Peace Science 24: 201-218.

Weinstein, Jeremy M. 2005. Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49: 598-624.

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