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The prospects for nuclear power in Saudi Arabia Centre Energie - Centre for Energy 1 Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega Director, Centre for Energy Paris Energy Club- Rueil, 20/04/2018
Transcript of Centre Energie - Centre for Energy - IFRI › sites › default › files › atoms › ...The...
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The prospects for nuclear power in Saudi Arabia
Centre Energie - Centre for Energy
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Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Director, Centre for Energy
Paris Energy Club- Rueil, 20/04/2018
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Regional context: NPP projects popping up everywhere, 17.6 GW announced for Saudi Arabia
2Sources: IAEA, World Nuclear Association
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Perfect conditions: growing population, growing energy demand…
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Evolution of TPES and population, 1980-2034E
Sources: IMF, UN World Population Prospects 2017 , BP Statisical Review 2017
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Electricity sector key driver of energy demand
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Evolution of electricity consumption and TPES, 1980-2015
Sources: EIA, BP Statistical Review 2017
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Energy mix, 2000
Source: BP Statistical review 2002 & 2017
Energy mix, 2016
… energy mix increasingly reliant on oil… if not for the Paris Agreement, lower demand would free up oil for exports
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Gas increasingly used for power generation as production has ramped up… Will shale gas or imports prevail?
6Source: IEA Statistics
Power generation mix, 2000 Power generation mix, 2016
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31 GW of oil fired power generating capacity…
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Installed electric power capacity by fuel in %, 2017 Installed electric power capacity by fuel in GW, 2017 (including desalination)
Source: KAPSARC GCC Energy System Overview 2017
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Growing CO2 emissions
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Evolution of CO2 emissions and GDP, 1960-2014
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
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Increasing gas fired power generation will require becoming a net gas importer … and comes with risks
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Electricity generation by sources, 1971-2015
Production of natural Gas in 2016 = 109,4
Bcm
Consumption of natural Gas
in 2016 = 109,4 Bcm
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, BP Statistical Review 2017
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Improving the energy intensity has never been a priority, could change though following efforts in the UAE
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Comparison of the energy intensity of France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, 1990-2014
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
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The financial challenge: golden years are over, can the Aramco IPO fill the coffers?
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Evolution of the oil rent and GDP growth, 1980-2022E
* Difference between the value of crude oil production at world prices and total costs of productionSources: World Bank World Development
Indicators, IMF
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Energy subsidies still very high, but progressively diminishing and to be almost entirely removed by 2025
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Estimate of energy subsidies, 2016
Source: IEA Statistics
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Increased military spending – and regional tensions -or NPPs?
13Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
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Military spending (%of GDP)
Evolution of military spending in % of GDP, 1968-2016
+ 10% spending in 2018
@ USD 56 billion (France:
1.82% of GDP @ EUR
34.2 billion
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IRENA: a lot more can be covered by renewables, so does Softbank and its 200 GW solar project (…35 MW end 2017)…
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Total technical potential (GW) for the GCC, 75km from the grid
Source: IRENA Investment Opportunities in the GCC 2016
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Prospects: very low-carbon winter electricity generation, 50-50 summer generation mix ? How about EE?
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Potential longer term energy mix, summer and winter (GW)
Source: King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy K.A. Care www.kacare.gov.sa
http://www.kacare.gov.sa
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