Central egency for

public mobilization and statistics

CENSUS EVALUATION

POST-ENUMERATION SURVEY

Measure accuracy (quality) of census data

Purpose of Census Evaluation

Coverage error – census omission and

duplication of households and persons

Content error – nonresponse, response errors,

coding errors, etc.

Objectives of

Post-Enumeration Survey

Measure both census coverage and content errors.

PES evaluation results useful for improving future

census operation.

PES results assist census data users in

understanding relative magnitude of error.

PES estimates may be used for adjusting the

census population figures and population projections

PES Methodology

Independent enumeration of household and

population in sample of areas.

- De jure or de facto enumeration, depending on

type of census enumeration.

Two-Way matching of PES and census from for

sample areas.

PES Methodology (continued)

Reconciliation visit following matching.

Dual-system estimation methodology

- Based on two independent sources of

population data – census and PES.

Ideal to conduct PES about 2 to 4 weeks following

the census, to avoid much movement of population

and recall error

Important to allow sufficient time to ensure all

census materials are returned from field

- To ensure independence between census

and PES enumeration

Timing of PES

Movement of Population

between Census and PES

Non-movers – persons in same household at

time of census and PES

In-movers – persons who moved into a

household between the time of the census and

the PES

Out-movers – persons who move out of a

household between the census and the PES

- Enumeration of non-movers and out-movers

- Advantage – out-movers easier to match

- Disadvantage – more difficult to obtain information for out-movers

Enumeration Procedures for

Moving Population

Procedure A – identifies composition of

household at time of census

- Enumeration of non-movers and in-movers

- Advantage – in-movers easier to match

- Disadvantage – more difficult to match in-movers to census records at previous residence in different area

Enumeration Procedures for

Moving Population (Continued)

Procedure B – identifies all current household

members at time of PES

- Enumeration of non-movers, in-movers and out-movers

- Match non-movers and out-movers to obtain match rate for movers

- Count number of in-movers- Apply match rate for out-movers to number of in-

movers- Advantage – out-movers easier to match, in-movers

easier to identify; less bias than Procedure A, less cost than Procedure B

- Procedure C used for Egypt PES

Procedure C – combination of Procedures A and B

Enumeration Procedures for

Moving Population (Continued)

- Establish geographic domains, age groups for analysis

- Example: geographic domains for Egypt PES Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural

- Identify items to be evaluated for content error: most important characteristics subject to response error

- Generally avoid items which require detailed coding such as industry and occupation

Defining Objectives for PES

Coverage error evaluation

Content error measurement

- Household identification, including address- Person characteristics – name, sex, age, relationship to head

of household, marital status

- Whether person was in household at time of census

Select items from census from required for

matching household and persons

Information to establish moving status following

census

Items included for content error analysis

Shaded areas in PES questionnaire to enter

census responses for matched persons

PES Questionnaire Design

Stratified area sample

Sampling frame – list of census enumeration

areas (EAs) or segments

P-sample – households enumerated in PES

within sample segments

E-sample – households enumerated by census

within same sample segments

Sample Design for PES

- Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural

- Geographic ordering of EAs with systematic provides implicit stratification

- Depends on precision requirements for domains of analysis

- Minimum number of sample segments for each domain of analysis – ideally, 30 sample segments

Stratification – geographic domains of analysis

Sample size and allocation

Sample Design for PES (continued)

The first : for the 1968 population census which carried out by (PSRC) population studies and research center at CAPMAS

Egypt has done (PES) Twiss

The second : for the 2006 population census which carried out by cabinet (information and decision support center (IDSC))

The two (PES) done by the same concepts, procedures, sample design

Design

The design has six domains.

each sample PSU divided into segments each

regiment size has 100 households.

The (PSUs) primary sampling units – shiakh has

in urban area, villages in rural area.

all households enumerated within sample

segments.

Matching Operation

Two- way matching between household and

person records in P-sample (PES) and E-sample

(census)

Matching procedures should be tested and

described very clearly in matching manual.

Matching rules should be designed to minimize

net matching error rate.

Reconciliation Visit

Follow up on persons enumerated in the census

but not the PES, to determine whether they were

correctly enumerated.

Verify cases of possible matches.

Determine final match status.

Dual System Estimation

Based on assumption of independence between

census and PES.

Depends on two-way matching between census

and PES.

Includes estimate of population missing from

both census and PES.

Dual System Estimation Model

PESTotalCensus

IncludedMissed

TotalNtNcNt - Nc

IncludedNpMNp- M

MissedNt - NpNc - MN’cp

Dual System Estimate

of Total population

Nt = ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = ــــــــــــــــ

Nc x Np Nc

RM M

RM = ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = match rate

M

NP

1 - RM = census omission rate