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Transcript of Central Banks, the Fed, and Monetary Policy Professor Wayne Carroll Department of Economics...
Central Banks, the Fed, and Monetary Policy
Professor Wayne Carroll
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
Slides available at www.uwec.edu/carrolwd
Central Banks
Bank of Japan Bank of England
European Central Bank
People’s Bank of China
Federal Reserve System
Good sources: Bank for International Settlements website:
http://www.bis.org/
Links to central bank websites:
http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm
Central Banks
The Federal Reserve System
“The Fed” Central bank for the U.S. Roles:
Conducts monetary policy (controls the nation’s money supply)
One of the agencies that regulates the banking system
“lender of last resort” Facilitates payments (issues currency, clears
checks)
The Federal Reserve System
The Fed is directed by: Board of Governors
7 members appointed by the President and approved by Congress
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 12 members, including the Board of
Governors and five other Fed officials Chair serves as chairman of both committees
The Federal Reserve System
The Board of Governors meets in Washington, D.C.
The Fed includes 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks
The Fed’s Balance Sheet(billions of dollars, as of December 20, 2006)
AssetsU.S. government securities 811.1
Discount loans 0.2
Gold and SDR accounts 13.2
Other Federal Reserve assets 44.4
Total 868.9
LiabilitiesFederal Reserve notes 775.9
outstanding
Bank deposits (reserves) 16.5
U.S. Treasury deposit 5.4
Other liabilities 40.7
CapitalSurplus 30.4
Total 868.9
The Fed and the U.S. Government
The Fed was created to be very independent.Not really part of the federal government Not directed or controlled by the President,
Congress, or any government agencyFed decisions are made by the Board of
Governors and other Fed officials
The President and members of Congress respect the Fed’s independence.
The Fed and the U.S. Government
Factors that make the Fed more independent: Not funded by Congress Members of the Board of Governors have long (14-
year) terms
Factors that make the Fed less independent: The Fed was created by Congress, so Congress can
pass legislation that changes the Fed’s structure, procedures, or policies
The President appoints members of the Board of Governors, and they are approved by Congress
Central Bank Independence
Economists and policy makers believe that it’s important for a central bank to be independent from the government.
Many countries have granted more independence to their central banks in the last fifteen years.
Central Bank Independence
Why is an independent central bank better? An independent central bank is more likely to
follow low-inflation policies.
Evidence suggests that in the long run a central bank can only control the rate of inflation (not the economic growth rate).
The government tends to push for policies that promote faster economic growth in the short run. If the central bank is independent, it can say “No.”
Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Recent Evidence
Charles T. Carlstrom and Timothy S. Fuerst, “Central Bank Independence: The Key to Price Stability?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, September 1, 2006.
Macroeconomic Goals of the Fed
According to the U.S. Congress, the Fed should seek “to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”
These goals are often in conflict.
The Fed must choose the best balance.
The Fed’s Monetary Policy Tools
“Monetary policy” refers to changes in the nation’s money supply brought about by the Fed.
“Monetary policy tools” are actions the Fed can take to alter the money supply.
Open-Market Operations – the Fed’s purchases and sales of government bonds for its own portfolio.
Open-Market Operations
An open-market purchase causes the nation’s money supply to increase.
Public The Fed
bonds
$$$
Open-Market Operations
Open-market operations take place “on the open market,” not through transactions with the U.S. Treasury or directly with banks.
Controlled by the Federal Open-Market Committee (FOMC).
The FOMC meets every six weeks to consider policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Target
The FOMC formulates its monetary policy in terms of a target level for the federal funds rate.
federal funds rate: the interest rate banks charge each other
when they borrow and lend reserves.
Federal Funds Rate Target
Banks set the federal funds rate, but the Fed uses open-market operations to control it.
Open-market purchase:The Fed buys government bonds.Sellers of the bonds deposit the funds in banks, so bank reserves increase.Banks have more reserves, so they choose to set the federal funds rate lower.
Similarly, an open-market sale tends to raise the federal funds rate.
Federal Funds Rate Target
So the Fed sets a target level for the federal funds rate, and then uses open-market operations to hit the target.
A lower target: The Fed buys more bonds, and makes the money supply increase more.This tends to make the economy grow faster in the short run.
Therefore the Fed reduces the federal funds rate target in a recession.
Federal Funds Rate Target
A higher target: The Fed buys fewer bonds (or sells some of its bonds), so the money supply increases slowly (or falls).This tends to slow the economy in the short run.
The Fed uses this policy when it wants to fight inflation.
The Fed’s Monetary Policy
During a recession the Fed: Reduces the federal funds target rate Makes the money supply grow faster Makes the economy grow faster in the short
runAfter a recession the Fed: Raises the federal funds rate to prevent an
increase in the inflation rate Makes the money supply grow more slowly Slows the nation’s economic growth in the
short run
Monetary Policy Strategy
Any central bank’s monetary policy aims at a nominal anchor target.
Choices: Exchange rate Inflation rate Money supply
Targeting a nominal anchor keeps the central bank focused on low inflation in the long run.
Exchange-Rate Targeting
The central bank fixes the value of its currency to the dollar (or some other major currency).
The central bank gives up its independent monetary policy powers.
Two interesting options: Currency board (as in Hong Kong) Dollarization (as in Ecuador)
Inflation Targeting
The central bank: announces a target range for the inflation rate
(perhaps 1% to 2%) commits itself to following a monetary policy
that hits the target
Inflation targeting makes it easier for the central bank to follow a low-inflation policy in the long run.
The Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy
The Fed uses an “implicit nominal anchor” – an informal long-run inflation target.
The Fed’s policy has generally been successful.
Disadvantages: Fed officials have a lot of discretion (or power
to choose their policy independently) – too much?
The Fed’s policies would be more credible and transparent if the inflation target were formal.