Centenarians and Health in Australia
description
Transcript of Centenarians and Health in Australia
Centenarians and Health in Australia
John McCormack PhD (& A/Prof Heather Booth ANU)
LaTrobe University, Victoria, Australia
Paper for Eleventh International Federation on Ageing 28-1 June 2012, Prague, Czech Republic
Marathon at age 100yrs?(Fauja Singh)
2
Jean Calment 40yrs(**NB All photos on public record or with informed consent)
3
Jean Calment 60yrs
4
Jean Calment 116yrs
5
Jean Calment 118 yrs
6
7
Jean Calment 122+ years
Historical Old Age in Australia1761 – 1875: 114 years Bendigo
8
9
Christina Cock – 114 (Australia)
10
Jack Lockett 111 years(Australia)
11
Indigenous Australians
WW1 Vet Claude Choules 1901
12
What is old age?Redefining old age?
•Traditionally An age of dependency? An age when one has to be provided for?•Life Expectancy 1900 approx 51 years / 1908 Age Pension at age 65 years•2010 LE 83.7 years•Big increase in LE. New demographic groups of people emerging
Growing older
14
Rectangularisation of the survival curve
15
100 the new 80??(actually 72 is the new 65! [ABS 3302.0])
16
17
Centenarian StudyResearch Questions
• 1. What are the characteristics of people aged 100 years or more at first assessment?
• 2. How do centenarians compare with younger aged cohorts at first assessment?
18
1. ACAS (Vic) Data 2002-03
• Aged care Assesment Service: 53951 Ax
• Centenarians Assessed (first Ax): 109• Australian census 2006: .12% pop 65+
assessments )
• Data Analysis:• Single Year Age comparison • Cohort comparison - 60s, 80s, 100s
19
Centenarians - Age
20
Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
% female
76 82 62 100 100 100 0
Home owner
57 53 38 33 100 33 0
% married
26 26 0 0 0 0 0
21
Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age (%)
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
Mobility 62 62 50 0 100 33 0
Continence
51 35 4 4 4 2 0
Orientation
67 67 37 0 50 0 0
Mob, aware & cont
53 38 6 3 0 0 0
22
Centenarian Characteristics by single year of age
100 101 102 103 104 105 108
R’mend Resi NH
22 24 62 100 0 66 100
R’mend
High Care
22 24 62 100 0 66 100
R’mend Rehab
5 6 12 0 0 0 0
23
2. Cohort Comparison
Socio-demog characteristics by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
% female 55 65 63 82 100
Home owner 68 72 73 59 53
% married 46 43 35 5 22
24
Health Social characteristics by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
Mobility 68 68 68 58 58
Continence* 78 71 69 60 46
Orientation* 78 69 74 62 60
Mob, aware & cont (N)
59
53%
54
(44%)
40
(43%)
31
(39%)
34
(31%)
25
destinations by Age Group
60s(111)
70s(123)
80s(93)
90s(79)
100+(109)
R’mend Resi NH*
12 9 12 18 30
R’mend
High Care
11 9 12 18 30
R’mend Rehab
21 14 9 12 5
26
Conclusion Centenarian ACAS Data
• Centenarians = The Same and slightly Different?• As expected, slight functional decrease with age.• Age 100 ‘fitter’ than 104 +• Younger centens receive more services than very old ones. • Received services = more to ‘young’• Recommended for resi Nursing Home increases with age• As expected, more health issues with increasing centenarian
age.• No Sig differences on most variables!• Some Heterogeneity: Like younger cohorts (some go home
alone etc.)• CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to understand
the relationships between age, functional ability, living arrangements and recommended aged care services for our oldest old citizens.
27
Conclusion- The Future
• Will we live to 150• Will we live 1000 years (Aubrey de Grey)• Are we heading for Immortality• Will we reach the Singularity
• Three Views on this : (Olshansky)• 1.Futurists• 2.Optimists• 3. Realists
• Implications:Population
• Longevity Dividend or Longevity risk or both?