Census.ac.uk The UK Census Longitudinal Studies Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews.
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Transcript of Census.ac.uk The UK Census Longitudinal Studies Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews.
Censu
s.ac.
uk
The UK Census Longitudinal Studies
Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews
Censu
s.ac.
uk
The England and Wales: Longitudinal Study covers England and Wales: approximately 1% sample: 1971 onwards – c. 540,000http://celsius.census.ac.uk
The Scottish Longitudinal Study covers Scotland: 5.3% sample: 1991 onwards – c. 280,000http://lscs.ac.uk
The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study covers Northern Ireland: 28% sample: 2001 onwards - c.500,000); http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/
-also the Northern Ireland Mortality Study: 100% sample, links deaths since 2001 to 2001 Census data`
The Longitudinal Studies:
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England and Wales: Longitudinal Study Structure
1971
Original sample: 530,000;
selected from 1971 Census
1981
536,000 sample
members found at 1981
Census
1991
543,000 sample
members found at 1991
Census
2001
540,000sample
members found at 2001
Census
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
Entrants (1971-2006) New Births 255,700 Immigrants 146,100
Exits (1971-2006) Deaths 226,200 Embarkations 35,800
Births to sample women 243,700Events 1971 – 2006 Widow(er)hoods 78,100
Cancer registrations (to 2005) 104,800
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Migration & travel to work
Economic activity
Ecological (area level) data
Occupation & social class
Education(all levels 2001)
Ethnicity (1991 & 2001)
Religion (2001)
Caregiving(2001)
Housing and amenities
Self-rated health (2001)
Long-term illness (1991 & 2001)
Deaths(cause specific)
Cancer Registrations
Births of LS Members
Emigrations (recorded)
Immigrations
Widow(er)hoods
Live Births to Sample Mothers
Still Births to Sample Mothers
Infant Deaths to Sample Mothers
Marital status & family type
‘Events’ added each year
Census Data
What does the LS
contain?
Core data in all the LS’s
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Can add in hospital admissions
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Types of study design using the Census Longitudinal Studies
1.Cross-sectional at each census (1971,1981,1991, 2001)
2.Longitudinal: investigating same people at 2+ Census points
3.Longitudinal: fertility, cancer incidence and mortality by Census characteristics before and after the event
4.Cross-sequential : comparing change in two cohorts (e.g. class mobility 1971 to 1991 with class mobility 1981 to 2001)
5.Inter-generational (parental characteristics of sample members by their adult characteristics in a later Census)
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How to use the LS’s: conditions imposed by the need for confidentiality
•Data are held in secure setting and can’t be downloaded
•Projects are scrutinised by a Board before approval
•Safe Setting Access to LS:
• ONS - London, Hampshire or South Wales
• NRS– Edinburgh
• NISRA - Belfast
•- or send code (eg in STATA or SPSS) which will be run for them by CeLSIUS support officers
•Individual-level data cannot leave the secure setting – instead, tables, models or aggregated datasets are released
•Outputs are scrutinised for possible disclosive elements (can limit detail of ethnicity, small-area geography and occupation)
•Presentations, articles, theses etc. must be scrutinised again before being made public and the standards are more rigorous.
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Work, permanent sickness and mortality risk: a prospective cohort study of England and Wales, 1971-2006
Akinwale B, Lynch K, Wiggins R, Harding S, Bartley M & Blane D
Published in Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 2010, 10.1136/jech.2009.099325
The research question:
•labour market participation by men has fallen in recent decades.
•much of this decline is accounted for by increases in permanent
sickness.
•there is speculation that some of the permanently sick have less
severe conditions than previously.
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The study:
•used data from the ONS Longitudinal Study
•samples were selected from each census: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001
•of men aged 55-69 and women aged 50-64
•either employed, unemployed or economically inactive at census
•samples were followed up for five years to identify deaths
•analysis: age-specific death rates, Standardised Mortality Ratios, odds of reporting limiting long-term illness
Results:
•the pattern of relative mortality risk remained remarkably stable during 1971-2001
•for both men and women of working ages, it was persistently lowest among those in work and highest among the permanently sick
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Labour market position
1971 1981 1991 2001
In work 100 100 100 100
Unemployed 115 110 133 151
Retired 175 149 131 135
Permanently sick
298 299 290 318
Other inactive 230 212 153 174
Table 4 Standardised Mortality Ratios for men aged 55-64
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, authors’ analysis. Deaths 1-5 years after census.
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Background:Suicide rates vary between areas: individual characteristics (composition) or area characteristics (context)?
Aim:To determine if area factors are independently related to suicide risk after adjustment for individual and family characteristics.
Method:5-year record linkage study using NIMS based on c.1.1 million individuals aged 16-74 years (and not living in communal establishments)
Results:i. suicide risks lowest for women & for those married/cohabiting;ii. higher relative risks recorded in more deprived & socially
fragmented areas disappeared after adjustment for individual & household disadvantage
Area Factors & Suicide
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Suicide (Daily Mirror)
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Long-term health conditions
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2011 Census – Other key changes
• General Health - Expanded from a 3 point scale in 2001 to a 5 point scale in 2011
• Limiting long term illness - expanded
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2011 Census – Other key changes
• Marital status question expanded to allow people to indicate their civil partnership status following the Civil Partnership Act
2004
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School Education data – 3 datasets.
- School Census data- SQA attainment data - Attendance/ absence & exclusions
data available
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1947 Scottish Mental Survey
1939 register
Birth1936
ED code, address, household members:
marital status, occupation
The Scottish Longitudinal
study
Scottish morbidity records
1939 books recorded the date of death (up to 1980)
linkage to the death database (1974 onwards)
Education
Employment
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Early life environment
1970
34
Hospitalisation
Mortality
Birth1936
0Age
Year
Mental ability
11
SchoolAchievement
(time estimated)
1947
Occupation (estimated)
1991
55
Detailed household/ individual
information
2001 2011
65 75
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