Cement Outlook: 2007

ACPA Meeting

Greely, Colorado

Ed Sullivan

Staff Vice President and PCA Chief Economist

For the Second Straight Year Awarded Most Accurate Forecaster (GDP) by the Chicago Federal Reserve

Economic Comfort Index *

1996=100

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

•Combines Real GDP With the Levels Interest Rates, Inflation and Unemployment

Most Favorable Economic Conditions Since the 1960’s

Bottom Line

Economic Growth Slows to 2.4% (Real GDP) Economic Growth Slows to 2.4% (Real GDP)

Construction Declines = – 3%Construction Declines = – 3% Housing Starts Decline = -18%Housing Starts Decline = -18%

Cement Consumption Declines = -1.5%Cement Consumption Declines = -1.5%

Downside Risks IncreasedDownside Risks Increased

Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook

Economic Fundamentals SoundEconomic Fundamentals Sound Unemployment, Inflation, Interest Rates Low Unemployment, Inflation, Interest Rates Low

Current Strength Cushions Against Current Strength Cushions Against Downside RisksDownside Risks

Past Growth of 3.3% is UnsustainablePast Growth of 3.3% is Unsustainable

Economic Outlook

Consensus 2007 GDP Forecast: 2.7%Consensus 2007 GDP Forecast: 2.7%

2006 Real GDP Growth: 3.3%2006 Real GDP Growth: 3.3% 11stst Quarter: 5.5% Quarter: 5.5% 22ndnd Quarter: 2.6% Quarter: 2.6% 33rdrd Quarter: 2.0% Quarter: 2.0% 44thth Quarter: 2.2% Quarter: 2.2%

Past Three Quarter Average: 2.3%Past Three Quarter Average: 2.3%

What is going to Propel Growth Beyond the What is going to Propel Growth Beyond the Past Three Quarter Average?Past Three Quarter Average?

Economic Outlook

What is going to Propel Growth Beyond the What is going to Propel Growth Beyond the Past Three Quarter Average?Past Three Quarter Average?

Budget Deficits Prevents Government Spending from Budget Deficits Prevents Government Spending from Being the Growth Driver.Being the Growth Driver.

Housing Contraction Prevents Investment Spending Housing Contraction Prevents Investment Spending

from Being a Growth Driver.from Being a Growth Driver. Net Exports are Improving. Sector So Small In Context Net Exports are Improving. Sector So Small In Context

of Overall Economy Prevents this from Being a Growth of Overall Economy Prevents this from Being a Growth Driver.Driver.

That Leaves Only Consumer Spending.That Leaves Only Consumer Spending.

Snap Shot of Economic Activity

Investment15%

Government18%

Consumer69%

Consumption acts as the anchor for US economic activity.Consumption acts as the anchor for US economic activity.

Any retrenchment in consumer spending will lead to slower economy-wide growth rates

Economic Outlook

That Leaves Only Consumer Spending.That Leaves Only Consumer Spending.

To Reach 2.7% Consensus Real GDP Growth….To Reach 2.7% Consensus Real GDP Growth….

Consumer Spending Must Grow at a Rate of More Consumer Spending Must Grow at a Rate of More than 3.5%.than 3.5%.

During Past Three Quarters, Consumer Spending During Past Three Quarters, Consumer Spending Averaged 3.2% Growth.Averaged 3.2% Growth.

And…And…

Economic Outlook

Consumer Spending has Relied On Debt.Consumer Spending has Relied On Debt. Net savings rate has been negative for years.Net savings rate has been negative for years.

Consumer Debt Burdens Near Historical HighsConsumer Debt Burdens Near Historical Highs Often a precursor to reduction in consumption growth.Often a precursor to reduction in consumption growth.

Sub-Prime Defaults Force a Tightening in Lending Sub-Prime Defaults Force a Tightening in Lending StandardsStandards

Reflects a new assessment of risk-return philosophy – beyond mortgages Reflects a new assessment of risk-return philosophy – beyond mortgages and perhaps globally.and perhaps globally.

Interest Rates Stable...But…Interest Rates Stable...But…

Shifting of Consumer Debt into Higher Risk/Higher Interest Shifting of Consumer Debt into Higher Risk/Higher Interest Rate Categories. Effective Interest Rates Rise.Rate Categories. Effective Interest Rates Rise.

More Vulnerable to Actual Interest Rate Increases.More Vulnerable to Actual Interest Rate Increases.

Can Debt Based Consumer Spending Thrive In This Can Debt Based Consumer Spending Thrive In This Environment?Environment?

If not, growth in consumer spending slows.If not, growth in consumer spending slows. Income Growth is Improving – but perhaps not fast enough.Income Growth is Improving – but perhaps not fast enough.

Consumer Worksheet

Pay Increase Averages 3.5%.Pay Increase Averages 3.5%. Health Insurance Premiums Rise 7%-11%.Health Insurance Premiums Rise 7%-11%.

State and Local Property Taxes Rise.State and Local Property Taxes Rise. Reassessments based on high home appreciationReassessments based on high home appreciation

Energy Prices Take a Large Bite.Energy Prices Take a Large Bite. Even in context of recent improvement.Even in context of recent improvement.

Inflation Running near 2.5%Inflation Running near 2.5%

Tapping Home Equity Not as Viable As In the PastTapping Home Equity Not as Viable As In the Past Slowdown in Job Creation – 150K Per Month is Not Slowdown in Job Creation – 150K Per Month is Not

Sustainable.Sustainable. If Job Creation Drops Below 100K on Sustained Basis – Expect a If Job Creation Drops Below 100K on Sustained Basis – Expect a

Significant Downward Revision in Forecast.Significant Downward Revision in Forecast.

Economic Outlook : Real GDP Growth

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

----------2005---------- -------2006------- -------2007------

2005: 3.5%

Real GDP Annual Growth Rate

-------2008-------

2006: 3.3%

2007: 2.4%

2008: 2.4%

Consensus 2007: 2.7%

Fed Eases

Risks: Sub-Prime Mortgages

Housing Threat

Real threat to economic growth not Real threat to economic growth not the decline in housing…..the decline in housing…..

But…..But…..

The way we financed the past The way we financed the past boom…boom…

And…And…

Its impact on consumer Its impact on consumer spending…..spending…..

Potentially more profound in Potentially more profound in historyhistory

Home Price & Income Gap

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Annual Growth Rate Comparison

Home Prices

Household Income

Disparity Prompts Introduction of Exotic

Mortgages

Emergence of Exotic Mortgages

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

2003.4 2004.1 2004.2 2004.3 2004.4 2005.1 2005.2 2005.3

Interest Only Loan Share of Sub-Prime Market

Share by Principle Share by Principle Balance: Solid GreenBalance: Solid Green

Share by Loan Count: Share by Loan Count: Striped YellowStriped Yellow

Note: Sub-Prime accounts for 36% total mortgage market

Sub-Prime Mortgage Resets

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total Loans Scheduled for Reset

Period of Emerging Period of Emerging TroubleTrouble

Impact on Economic Growth

Monthly Payments Increase 50% or More.Monthly Payments Increase 50% or More.

Credit Card Debt Increases As Consumers Try Credit Card Debt Increases As Consumers Try

To Preserve Standard of Living.To Preserve Standard of Living.

Delinquencies Increase.Delinquencies Increase.

Defaults Increase.Defaults Increase.

Adverse Impact on Consumer Spending. Adverse Impact on Consumer Spending.

Economic Outlook

Higher Loan Payments

Credit Availability

Shift Borrowers into Higher Rate Loans

High Debt Levels

Tightening of Lending Standards

Higher Defaults

Plus

Impact On Consumer Spending

=

Impact on Economic Growth

Adverse Impact on Consumer Adverse Impact on Consumer Spending can be Contained.Spending can be Contained.

As Long As….As Long As….

Relatively Strong Job Growth Persists.Relatively Strong Job Growth Persists.

And…And…

Interest Rates Remain Stable. Interest Rates Remain Stable.

Risks: Foreign Capital In-Flows

Impact on Economic Growth

Interest Rates Remain Stable.Interest Rates Remain Stable.

Economy More Vulnerable to Interest Rate Increase.Economy More Vulnerable to Interest Rate Increase. High DebtHigh Debt Tight StandardsTight Standards Risk Adverse LendersRisk Adverse Lenders Linkage to Consumer Spending via Past Home Equity Borrowing.Linkage to Consumer Spending via Past Home Equity Borrowing.

Will Long Term Interest Rates Remain Stable?Will Long Term Interest Rates Remain Stable? Inverted Yield CurveInverted Yield Curve Real, Inflation Adjusted, Rates LowReal, Inflation Adjusted, Rates Low

Net Foreign Purchases: US Bonds & Notes

$ Millions

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2003M1 2004M1 2005M1 2006M1

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Mortgage Rate

Foreign Capital In-Flows

Studies Indicate: 50 to 200 Basis Point Impact Studies Indicate: 50 to 200 Basis Point Impact

on Mortgage Interest Rates.on Mortgage Interest Rates.

China Key Player in Mortgage Backed China Key Player in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).Securities (MBS).

China Diversifying Reserve Portfolio Away China Diversifying Reserve Portfolio Away From U.S. Assets. From U.S. Assets.

Governing Board Already Established.Governing Board Already Established.

Weak Dollar Reduces Foreign Investor ROI on Weak Dollar Reduces Foreign Investor ROI on U.S. Assets.U.S. Assets.

Defaults in Mortgage Market Reduce ROI on Defaults in Mortgage Market Reduce ROI on U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities.U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities.

Higher Interest Rate Resets:

Force Increase in Defaults

Foreign Capital

Inflows Slow

Defaults: Lower ROI on Holders

of MBS

Interest Rates Rise

Foreign Capital In-Flows & Sub-Prime Threat

Risks

Sub-PrimeSub-Prime

Foreign Capital InflowsForeign Capital Inflows

Skepticism On Labor Market’s Ability to Continue to Skepticism On Labor Market’s Ability to Continue to Generate 150K Net New Jobs MonthlyGenerate 150K Net New Jobs Monthly

Risks Elevated: One in Three Chance For Downside Risks Elevated: One in Three Chance For Downside CorrectionCorrection

Survey of Economists: Risk of Recession = 25%Survey of Economists: Risk of Recession = 25%

Construction & Cement OutlookOverview

Total Construction

Billion 1996 $

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

2007: Decline projected …BUT.. based off record levels

Construction Spending (Real) Declines 3%

Changing Composition of Construction Spending Growth

Growth Leader: ResidentialGrowth Leader: Residential Low Interest RatesLow Interest Rates

PublicPublic State Tax Revenues Hurt by State Tax Revenues Hurt by

Anemic Economic GrowthAnemic Economic Growth

Growth Laggard: Growth Laggard: NonresidentialNonresidential

Weak EconomyWeak Economy

Growth Leader : NonresidentialGrowth Leader : Nonresidential Strong EconomyStrong Economy

PublicPublic State Tax Revenues Recovery State Tax Revenues Recovery

Due to Strong Economic Due to Strong Economic GrowthGrowth

Growth Laggard : ResidentialGrowth Laggard : Residential Rising Interest RatesRising Interest Rates

2001-2005 2006-2009

Low Interest Rates, Weak Economy

Rising Interest Rates, Strong Economy

Cement Intensities

Composition Of Cement Growth: Construction Activity Vs Cement Intensity Growth

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2003 2004 2005 2006

Cement Intensity Growth

Cement Intensity Growth Cement

Intensity Growth

Construction Activity Growth

Construction Activity Growth

Annual Percent Change, Real Put-In-Place Construction & Cement Intensity

Concrete: Run-up in Competing Material Prices

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

6-Jan 6-Mar 6-May 6-Jul sept nov

Annual Percent Change, PPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Concrete

Asphalt

Steel

Concrete: Improving Competitive Position

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2005 5-May 5-Sep 2006 6-May sept 6-Feb 6-Jun oct

Change Relative Price Vs Concrete

Asphalt

Steel

Rapid Improvement in Concrete’s Relative Pricing Position

Oil Price Outlook

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

20002002

20042006

20082010

$ Per Barrel, West Texas Intermediate

Projected

Oil Prices are declining as Oil Prices are declining as projected.projected.

Retreat to 2002 levels not going Retreat to 2002 levels not going to happen.to happen.

Strong International DemandStrong International Demand Japan’s Economic RecoveryJapan’s Economic Recovery Stronger Asian Demand: China Stronger Asian Demand: China

& India& India

Supply Disruptions ContinueSupply Disruptions Continue Middle East Uncertainties, Middle East Uncertainties,

Nigeria, VenezuelaNigeria, Venezuela Iran & Uranium EnrichmentIran & Uranium Enrichment

OPEC ActionsOPEC Actions $60 per barrel target?$60 per barrel target?

2006: $65.85 per barrel WTI 2006: $65.85 per barrel WTI 2007: $60.302007: $60.30

-9 +60

-10 +50

-10 +30

-7 +20

Competitive Position Vs Asphalt

Sustained high oil pricesSustained high oil prices

Plus…..Plus…..

More efficient refining processesMore efficient refining processes

Suggest…..Suggest…..

New competitive position of New competitive position of Concrete is sustained…Concrete is sustained…

It is not a temporary phenomenonIt is not a temporary phenomenon

Residential Construction

Past Strength in Starts More Than Low Rates…

The Cyclical Upside: 2001 - 2005The Cyclical Upside: 2001 - 2005

Low mortgage rates key factor in single family starts over past few Low mortgage rates key factor in single family starts over past few years.years.

Emergence of exotic mortgages also a key factor…particularly in Emergence of exotic mortgages also a key factor…particularly in

strong home appreciation environment.strong home appreciation environment.

Easy credit conditions contributed to strong home-buying Easy credit conditions contributed to strong home-buying environment.environment.

Speculators add froth to market in light of strong appreciation Speculators add froth to market in light of strong appreciation

rates.rates. Lean inventories supplement demand …add strength to starts.Lean inventories supplement demand …add strength to starts.

Each Factor at Work on Cyclical Downside: 2006 - 2007Each Factor at Work on Cyclical Downside: 2006 - 2007

Mortgage Rates: 30 Year Conventional

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Annual Growth Rate, 30 Year Conventional

Peak to Peak to Trough Trough

294 Basis 294 Basis Point Point

DeclineDecline

6.5% Year End

No Such Thing as a “National” Market…

Structurally Changed MarketsStructurally Changed Markets

Hurricanes (Louisiana)Hurricanes (Louisiana) Economically Depressed (Michigan)Economically Depressed (Michigan)

Boom/Bust MarketsBoom/Bust Markets Dynamic EconomiesDynamic Economies Strong DemographicsStrong Demographics Robust Appreciation RatesRobust Appreciation Rates High Presence of SpeculatorsHigh Presence of Speculators Large Inventory Overhang, Large Starts Decline, Slow RecoveryLarge Inventory Overhang, Large Starts Decline, Slow Recovery 2009 Surprising Strength2009 Surprising Strength Arizona, Nevada, Florida & California = 28% Cement ConsumptionArizona, Nevada, Florida & California = 28% Cement Consumption

““Normal” MarketsNormal” Markets

More Modest AppreciationMore Modest Appreciation Relatively Low Speculator PresenceRelatively Low Speculator Presence Smaller Inventory OverhangSmaller Inventory Overhang More shallow decline, Quicker RecoveryMore shallow decline, Quicker Recovery

Home Prices: Will Play a Role in Correction

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Annual Growth Rate, Median Home Price

Price Will Play Strong Role In Recovery

But…

In Context of Tighter Lending Standards

Single Family Sales Outlook: New Homes

Percent Change

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

2004M1 2004M7 2005M1 2005M7 2006M1 2006M7 2007M1 2007M7

2006: 1,064: -16.7%

2007: 1,055: -1.4% Projected

Relatively Low Mortgage Rates, Home Price Correction, Builder Incentives, Relatively Strong Labor Markets Versus Tighter Lending Standards

Back-Ended Gains

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Inventory of Single Family Homes

Number of Homes for Sale, Thousands: BarMonths Supply: Line

Projected

6.3 Months

Single Family Starts Outlook

Percent Change

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

2004M1 2004M7 2005M1 2005M7 2006M1 2006M7 2007M1 2007M7

Projected

Nonresidential & PublicConstruction

Nonresidential Construction

Percent Change

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2004M1 2004M7 2005M1 2005M7 2006M1 2006M7 2007M1

2006: $147.1 Billion: +12.3%

2007: $159.5 Billion: +8.4%

Retail Construction

Percent Change

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

2004M1 2004M7 2005M1 2005M7 2006M1 2006M7 2007M1

2006: $43.7 Billion: +6.9%

2007: $46.7 Billion: +6.8%

Accounts for Roughly 40% of Nonresidential Cement Consumption

Public Construction

55% of PA Consumption

Public Construction Outlook:State & Local Share of Public Construction

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Percent of Total Public Construction Spending

Public Construction Outlook

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1979Q1 1991Q1 2003Q1

93% of public construction 93% of public construction performed at state/local level.performed at state/local level.

State/Local fiscal problems State/Local fiscal problems

fading.fading.

Revenue growth improves with Revenue growth improves with economy and job growth.economy and job growth.

Surpluses will re-emerge.Surpluses will re-emerge.

Pent-up demand released.Pent-up demand released. Highway Bill adds strength.Highway Bill adds strength. 2006: +4.8% 2007: +5.5%2006: +4.8% 2007: +5.5% Note: 2005: +1.9%Note: 2005: +1.9%

Billion $ State Surplus/Deficit, NIPA

MARI

NH

0-9% 20-29% 30-39%

Pacific

MountainWest North Central

East North Central

SouthAtlantic

East South

Central

District of Columbia

West South Central

NewEngland

Middle Atlantic

10-19%

Deficit as percentage of budget

$.85

$.11

$1.0

$.16$0

$.36

$.4 $.98

$0$1.5

$.05

$.38

$.3

$.12

$38

$3.7

$3.6

$.6

$.22

$.41

$1.0

$.09

$2.4$0

$2.0

$.75

$.5

$.49

$1.3

$1.7

$.2

$.2

$2.4

$9.3

$2.0

$.74

$4.6

$.14$.4

$.15$3.0$.17

$.85$.2

NJ$1.9CT

MDDE

VT

$.25$1.1

$2.0

$.03

$.08

Primary Source: Newsweek July 28, 2003

Secondary Sources:Nat’l Conf. of State Leg., Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Nat’l Assn. of State Budget Officers, Calif. Budget Project

Dollar figures, in billions, indicate amount states had to save to balance 2004 budget.

KEY

Public Construction Outlook: State Deficit Estimates Fiscal Year 2004

MARI

NH

Public Construction Outlook: State Deficit Estimates Fiscal Year 2005

0-9% 20-29% 30-39%

Pacific

MountainWest North Central

East North Central

SouthAtlantic

East South

Central

District of Columbia

West South Central

NewEngland

Middle Atlantic

10-19%

Deficit as percentage of budget

$0

$0

$0

$0

$.3

$1.1

$.17

$15

$0

$2

$.5

$.34

$.71

$.19

$.0

$.6

$.62

$.17

$.9

$0

$5.1

$5

$.14

$0$1.5$.19

$.74

NJ$.2CT

MD$.93

$.8

Secondary Source: National Association of Budget Officers

Dollar figures, in billions, indicate amount states had to save to balance 2005 budget.

KEY

No availabledata

DE $0

$0

$.9

$0

$.6$.2

$.9

$0

$.21

$0

$0

$0

$.3

$0

$.5

$0

$0

VT $0

$.12

$0

Primary Source: Center on Budget Policy and Priorities Feb / 04

Construction Costs

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1990M1 1992M1 1994M1 1996M1 1998M1 2000M1 2002M1 2004M1 2006M1

Annual Growth Rate+7.2% 2006 First Half

Market Conditions

Import Volumes: 2007

No Shortage Tight Supplies

Cement Supply Survey Summer 2005

Spot Tight Supplies

No Shortage Tight Supplies

Cement Supply Survey Summer 2006

Spot Tight Supplies

Portland Cement Outlook

Thousand Metric Tons

450

20,450

40,450

60,450

80,450

100,450

120,450

140,450

160,450

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

2006 – 2007: A Pause Before A Resumption in Growth

Cement Consumption Declines 1.5%

World Cement Consumption

Million Metric Tons

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China

Developed Economies

Lesser Developed, Transitional and Emerging Economies

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1/1/2001 7/1/2002 1/1/2004 5-Feb 5-Jul 5-Dec 6-May

Freight Rates

Freight $ Per Ton, Handymax, Asia-Gulf

Dry-Bulk Ship Retirement

Thousand, Deadweight Tons

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

HandySize Fleet Changes

Thousand, Deadweight Tons

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

New Deliveries

Retirements

Source: Simpson, Spence & Young

Dry-Bulk Ship Retirement to Increase

Thousand, Deadweight Tons

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Actual, Retirement2% Of Fleet Retirement

Potential Additional Retirement: 22 mdwt

Import Outlook

2007 Worksheet2007 Worksheet

Consumption = 1.5% DeclineConsumption = 1.5% Decline

Domestic Utilization = Same as 2006 (94%)Domestic Utilization = Same as 2006 (94%)

Inventory = 19 Days SupplyInventory = 19 Days Supply 770K Draw770K Draw Note: Added 1.1 Million MT in 2006Note: Added 1.1 Million MT in 2006

Imports 2007 = 33.1 MMT (-7.8 %)Imports 2007 = 33.1 MMT (-7.8 %)

Conclusions

Portland Cement Outlook

Thousand Metric Tons

450

20,450

40,450

60,450

80,450

100,450

120,450

140,450

160,450

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

2006 – 2007: A Pause Before A Resumption in Growth

Growth Materializes When All Three Sectors (Residential,

Nonresidential & Publics Grow)

Cement Outlook: 2007

ACPA Meeting

Greely, Colorado

Ed Sullivan

Staff Vice President and PCA Chief Economist

For the Second Straight Year Awarded Most Accurate Forecaster (GDP) by the Chicago Federal Reserve