Celebrating 10 Years - Diesel & Gas Turbine...
Transcript of Celebrating 10 Years - Diesel & Gas Turbine...
Celebrating 10 Years by Brent Haight
Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015
iesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide’s Mechanical Drive Order Survey is part two of three surveys designed to provide details on the markets of larger recipro-cating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines used in power generation, marine propulsion and
mechanical drive applications.Data is divided into three reports in order to provide a more
in-depth look at each market segment. The Mechanical Drive Order Survey is devoted to engine orders for mechanical drive applications including pumps, compressors, oil explo-ration machinery, rail and other industrial applications. The Power Generation Order Survey (published in the May issue) examines reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas tur-bines for power generation service. The Marine Propulsion Order Survey (to appear in the July/August issue) examines mechanical drive, auxiliary and diesel-electric marine propul-sions systems.
Procedures
The Mechanical Drive Order Survey includes prime movers beginning at 500 kW (0.5 MW). New orders are broken into reciprocating engine, gas turbine and steam turbine orders.
Fuel types are simplified to reflect only liquid versus gas-eous fuels. Liquid fuel, as reported in this survey, can be any form of diesel oil.
It is important to note that the data in this survey does not represent units shipped, but only the total orders received during calendar-year 2014.
An accompanying table shows the geographic breakdown we provide OEMs, highlighting the specific countries within the reported geographic regions.
Every effort is made to ensure that this survey is as com-plete and comprehensive as possible and would not have the level of detail it contains without the generous contri-butions of the participating companies. An accompanying
D0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
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7000
8000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Recip Engine Orders
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50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gas Turbine Orders
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100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Steam Turbine Orders
Years
Uni
tsU
nits
Uni
ts
Years
Years*Steam turbines were added to the survey in 2009.
*
Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015
Mechanical Drive reciprocating engine orDers, January – December 2014
output range (MW)
number of Units
total engine output For
each output range (MW)
engine operating speed ranges Fuel
Wes
tern
eur
ope
east
ern
euro
pe,
russ
ia &
cis
Mid
dle
east
Far e
ast
sout
heas
t asi
a &
aust
ralia
cent
ral a
sia
nort
h af
rica
cent
ral,
Wes
t, ea
st &
sou
th
afric
a
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eric
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cent
ral a
mer
ica
& ca
ribbe
an
sout
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a
300 to 600 r/min
720 to 1000 r/min
above 1000 r/min
Diesel Fuel
heavy Fuel
natural gas
0.50 to 1.00 2692 1737 0 0 2692 2523 4 165 705 84 1 247 93 7 0 24 1508 2 211.01 to 2.00 1620 2415 0 155 1465 1083 8 529 116 48 2 217 17 10 348 3 830 1 282.01 to 3.50 354 846 0 119 235 301 6 47 49 32 0 144 2 9 31 7 71 0 93.51 to 5.00 10 42 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 45.01 to 7.50 7 40 0 7 0 0 6 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7.51 and above 212 2390 49 163 0 23 55 134 0 42 66 2 9 30 1 7 27 13 15
totals 4895 7470 49 454 4392 3930 79 886 870 212 69 610 125 58 380 41 2436 17 77
Mechanical Drive gas tUrbine orDers, January – December 2014
output range (MW)number of
Units
total engine output For each
output range (MW)
Fuel
Wes
tern
eu
rope
east
ern
euro
pe,
russ
ia &
cis
Mid
dle
east
Far e
ast
sout
heas
t asi
a &
aust
ralia
cent
ral a
sia
nort
h af
rica
cent
ral,
Wes
t, ea
st &
sou
th
afric
a
nort
h am
eric
a
cent
ral
amer
ica
& ca
ribbe
an
sout
h am
eric
a
Diesel Fuel
heavy Fuel
natural gas
1.00 to 2.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.01 to 3.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.51 to 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.01 to 7.50 6 34 0 0 6 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7.51 to 10.00 15 120 0 0 15 0 6 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3
10.01 to 15.00 23 282 0 0 23 0 5 3 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 6
15.01 to 20.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20.01 to 30.00 30 747 2 0 30 0 0 11 0 7 0 10 2 0 0 0
30.01 to 60.00 73 2433 0 0 73 0 36 25 0 2 0 0 0 9 1 0
60.01 to 120.00 20 1778 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0
120.01 to 180.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
180.01 and above 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 167 5394 2 0 167 0 49 46 0 9 3 16 2 32 1 9
Mechanical Drive steaM tUrbine orDers, January – December 2014
output range (MW)
number of Units
total engine output (MW)
steam turbine types
Wes
tern
eur
ope
east
ern
euro
pe,
russ
ia &
cis
Mid
dle
east
Far e
ast
sout
heas
t asi
a
& au
stra
lia
cent
ral a
sia
nort
h af
rica
cent
ral,
Wes
t, ea
st
& so
uth
afric
a
nort
h am
eric
a
cent
ral a
mer
ica
&
carib
bean
sout
h am
eric
a
cond
ensi
ng
non-
cond
ensi
ng
rehe
at
extr
actio
n
indu
ctio
n
0.0 to 1.00 253 77 4 249 0 1 0 5 14 31 30 22 12 0 8 100 26 51.01 to 5.00 34 66 10 24 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 5 0 1 2 15 3 0
5.01 to 10.00 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 010.01 to 30.00 2 11 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 030.01 to 60.00 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
60.01 to 120.00 7 424 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0120.01 and
Above 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 299 584 26 273 0 2 0 8 19 33 38 27 12 1 10 117 29 5
2015 MeCHaniCal drive order survey
Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015
table identifies those companies that participated in the 2015 survey.
It is important to note, some units re-ported in the 2015 Mechanical Drive Order Survey did not have complete information. In some cases OEMs chose not to provide engine output, fuel type or geography for some of their report-ed orders.
Overview
This marks the 10th year for the Me-chanical Drive Order Survey. Year-over-year comparison shows growth in total orders (all reported drivers types) from 2013 to 2014. This year’s survey cata-logued 5361 orders (2014 data), a 20% growth compared to last year’s report (2013 data), which recorded 4453 units, ending a two-year decline.
The accompanying graphs show the cy-clical nature facing the mechanical drive applications reporting into this survey.
This will prove to be a pivotal year as low
Western EuropeAndorraAustria
BelgiumDenmarkFinlandFrance
GermanyGreeceIceland
LiechtensteinLuxembourg
ItalyIrelandMalta
NetherlandsNorwayPortugal
San MarinoSlovenia
SpainSweden
SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom
Eastern Europe,Russia & CIS
AlbaniaArmenia
AzerbaijanBelarus
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatia
Czech RepublicEstoniaGeorgiaHungary
KazakhstanKyrgyzstan
LatviaLithuaniaMoldovaPoland
Republic of MacedoniaRomania
RussiaSerbia
Slovac RepublicTajikistan
TurkmenistanUkraine
Uzbekistan
Middle EastBahrainCyprusEgyptIranIraq
IsraelJordanKuwait
LebanonOmanQatar
Saudi ArabiaSyria
TurkeyUnited Arab Emirates
Yemen
Country Information For
Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market
Surveys
oil prices, economic challenges in China and political unrest in major oil and gas producing countries continues. Effects of these challenges began to take their toll in the fourth quarter of 2014, with oil and gas majors announcing deep cuts in order to preserve the unprecedented profits they’ve enjoyed for so long. Cut-backs have continued into 2015, but there is good news amongst the doom and gloom headlines that dominate media outlets worldwide.
The demand for rail is resilient, show-ing continued growth in 2014 despite low economic growth in several coun-tries. Analysts expect year-over-year growth of 2.7% until 2020.
The 2014 UNIFE World Rail Market Study shows regional markets with the highest growth rates over the next six years are Latin America, Asia/Pacific and NAFTA (North America Free Trade Act) countries. Growth is driven by major investments in rail projects in Brazil, Colombia, China
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Western Europe
Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS
Middle East
Far East
Southeast Asia & Australia
Central Asia
North Africa
Central, West, East & South Africa
North America
Central America & Caribbean
South America 91
47
2585
53
397
73
161
648
148
280
878
Combined Geographic Totals (All Driver Types) January – December 2014
Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015
2015 MeCHaniCal drive order survey
Far EastChina
Hong KongJapan
MongoliaNorth KoreaSouth Korea
Taiwan
Southeast Asia& AustraliaAustralia
BruneiBurma
CambodiaFiji IslandsIndonesia
KiribatiLaos
MalaysiaMarshall Islands
MicronesiaPalau
Papua New GuineaPhilippines
SamoaSingapore
Solomon IslandsTahitiTonga
ThailandTuvalu
VanuatuVietnam
Central AsiaAfghanistanBangladesh
IndiaMaldives Islands
NepalPakistanSri Lanka
North AfricaAlgeriaLibya
MoroccoTunisia
Central, West, East & South Africa
AngolaBenin
BotswanaBurkina Faso
BurundiCameroonCape Verde
Cen. African Rep.Chad
ComorosCongo
Cote d’IvoireDjibouti
Equatorial GuineaEritrea
EthiopiaGabon
Country Information For
Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market
Surveys
and the U.S. The Africa/Middle East region is also expected to maintain its current high market level. Good news for OEMs operating within the rail traction sector.
The long-term outlook for LNG demand remains strong and is expected to increase by 40% through 2025 (to roughly 350 mil-lion T/yr), according to data from GDF Suez. Driving that growth are new markets in Chi-na, India and Southeast Asia and the race is on as myriad countries work to bring export facilities online to supply that demand.
The first LNG export terminal in the U.S., Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass, is cur-rently under construction, with initial LNG cargoes expected by late 2015. Ground has been broken on a second U.S. Gulf Coast terminal, Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG project, with two further projects approved by U.S. regulators for non-free trade exports, and numerous more under review.
Eastern Canada has four projects proposed for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that would take an estimated 1.5 Tcf/yr of gas, liquefy it and ship it abroad.
continued on page 30
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
North America faces competition from countries including Australia, Indonesia and Qatar for natural gas exports.
The global push to liquefy surplus natural gas will ultimately bode well for prime mover OEMs operating within the oil and gas sector.
Reciprocating engines
The number of reciprocating engines ordered in 2014 total 4895 units, a 21% increase compared to last year’s survey. The majority of orders were divided between the output ranges of 0.50 to 1 MW (2692 units) and 1.01 to 2.00 MW (1620 units).
Engine operating speeds above 1000 r/min accounted for 90% of the recip orders reported in the survey.
Diesel fuel once again dominated the fuel type, accounting for 80% of the re-ported orders.
North America once again claimed
combined Unit orders,all Driver types
Uni
ts
Years
Country Information For
Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market
Surveys
GambiaGhanaGuinea
Guinea BissauIvory Coast
KenyaLesothoLiberia
MadagascarMalawi
MaliMauritaniaMauritius
MozambiqueNamibia
NigerNigeriaRwandaSenegal
SeychellesSierra Leone
SomaliaSouth Africa
SudanSwazilandTanzania
TogoUganda
ZaireZambia
Zimbabwe
North AmericaCanadaU.S.A.
Central America & Caribbean
BahamasBermuda
BelizeCosta Rica
CubaDominica
Domin. RepublicEl SalvadorGuatemala
HaitiHondurasJamaicaMexico
NicaraguaPanama
Puerto RicoVirgin IslandsWest Indies
South AmericaArgentina
BoliviaBrazilChile
ColombiaEcuadorGuyana
ParaguayPeru
SurinamUruguay
Venezuela
2015 MeCHaniCal drive order survey
the top geographic destination for reciprocating engines in 2014 (50%). North America’s shale development and infrastructure remains unrivaled, keeping it the top geographic destina-tion for mechanical drive reciprocating engines for the foreseeable future.
Western Europe was the second geo-graphic destination for recip engines within the mechanical drive segment, receiving 18% of 2014 orders. The Far East was next at 12%.
Gas Turbines
Gas turbine orders decreased 19% compared to the 2014 Mechanical Drive Order Survey. Total orders report-ed in this survey equaled 167.
Units with the output range of 30.01 to 60.00 MW received the most orders (44%), followed by units rated 20.01 to 30.00 MW (18%).
Eastern Europe, Russia and CIS was once again the top geographic location for gas turbines in mechanical drive ap-plications, receiving 29% of the orders. The Middle East claimed the number two geographic location, accounting for 27% of the orders reported, fol-lowed by North America (20%).
Steam Turbines
Steam turbine orders rose 39% com-pared to last year’s surveys. Total steam turbine units ordered in 2014 was 299, falling mostly within the 0.0 to 1.0 MW output range (85%).
Noncondensing steam turbines saw the most demand, accounting for 91% of the total steam turbines ordered.
North America claimed the top geo-graphic location with 39% of the total units ordered. Far East accounted for 13%, followed by the Middle East at 11%.
Reciprocating Engine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey
• Caterpillar Inc.
• GE Power & Water
• Rolls-Royce Power Systems
• Wärtsilä
Steam Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting Orders In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey
• Dresser-Rand
• Fincantieri S.p.A.
• MAN Diesel & Turbo SE
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.
• Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd.
Gas Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey
• Dresser-Rand
• GE Oil & Gas
• GE Power & Water
• MAN Diesel & Turbo
• Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd.
• Siemens AG
• Vericor Power Systems
annual Surveys
On behalf of Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide, thank you to all contributors for your continued participation in this annual survey process. It is our hope that the three surveys com-bined will provide an accurate snapshot of the entire large engine landscape, with fine-tuned detail provided for three market segments through each individual report – power generation, mechanical drive and marine propulsion. Elec-tronic versions of past surveys are available at our website: www.dieselgasturbine.com. Questions, comments and sug-gestions should be directed to [email protected]. A
Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015