CEESA – Initial 100 per cent renewable energy transport scenarios Wednesday the 28 th of August...
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Transcript of CEESA – Initial 100 per cent renewable energy transport scenarios Wednesday the 28 th of August...
CEESA – Initial 100 per cent renewable energy transport scenarios
Wednesday the 28th of August 2007Brian Vad Mathiesen, M.Sc. PhD Fellow
Department of Development and Planningwww.plan.aau.dk/~bvm
Agenda
Presentation of the work conducted in WP2 of the CEESA project by Brian Vad Mathiesen, Mads Pagh Nielsen, Niclas Scott Bentsen
•Transport demands and projections•Biomass production and conversion •Transport scenarios
Data for reference transport and energy consumption
• Transport and energy demands in ”Energy Strategy 2025” from the Danish Energy Authority.
• Mainly based upon a background dataset from the Danish Road Directorate from 2002
• No projection updated datasets are as comprehensive as the on from 2002 (until now)
• The key preconditions are adopted agreements and economic development
• The dataset includes annual transport demands, energy consumption, load factors and emissions.
• In 2008 the transport demand was changed by the Danish Energy Authority from 0.7 % increase to 1% increase, but not in detail.
Data for reference transport and energy consumption
• Traffic work (km)• Passenger transport work (person km)• Fright transport work (ton km)• Load factors (persons or tons pr.
vehicle km)• Emission data (NOx, CO, HC,
particles, SO2, CO2)• Energy consumption pr. mode of
transport divided into fuels
• Vehicle petrol (all under 2 ton) • Vehicle diesel (all under 2 ton)• Van petrol (between 2 and 6 ton)• Van diesel (between 2 and 6 ton)• Heavy vehicle diesel (all above 6 ton)• Domestic aviation• International aviation• Ferry diesel• Cargo ship diesel• Bus diesel• Train diesel• Train electricity• Fright train diesel• Fright train electricity
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
Passenger transport demands, mill. person km
Bicycle
Train Elec.
Train Diesel
Bus Diesel
Ferry Diesel
Domestic aviation JP
Int. aviation JP
Vehicle Diesel
Vehicle Petrol
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Goods transport demands, mill. ton km
Fright train Elec.
Fright train Diesel
Cargo ship Diesel
Van Diesel
Van Petrol
Heavy vehicle Diesel
Reference transport demand from 2030 until 2050
• No official (or unofficial) projections are available after 2030
• Using the same method as the Danish Road Directorate a conservative projection is to use the years with the lowest increase in the projection period i.e. 2020-2030
• The efficiency of the modes of transport in the reference can be calculated and included into the projection
Reference transport energy demand from 2030 until 2050
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Ref. 2050 Fuel consumption, PJFreight train Elec.
Freight train Diesel
Train Elec.
Train Diesel
Bus Diesel
Cargo ship Diesel
Ferry Diesel
Int. aviation JP
Domestic aviation JP
Van Diesel
Van Petrol
Heavy vehicle Diesel
Vehicle Diesel
Vehicle Petrol
Problem areas in the projections• Future investments in infrastructure not included
(no traffic leaps, no changes in perceived distances)• Expected distance pr. vehicle pr. year is a key parameter and
hard to determine. It influences the official records of efficiencies and the future transport demands.
• According to the Ministry of Transport and Energy the rate of increase in the domestic aviation is too large.
• EU agreement has not had the effect hoped for, thus new vehicles have lower efficiencies than expected in the future.
• The main efforts from the Danish Road Directorate is focused on roads based modes of transport – no projections are done for busses and trains – thus it is not made clear which preconditions might effect the transport demand in busses and trains
Problem areas in the projections• Consequences for the energy demands:
– transport demands for personal vehicles are too high– but the efficiencies of vehicles are lower– projections are not based on human behaviour but on
connections between the number of vehicles, economic development, low fuel prices and efficiencies. No real projections of busses and rail transport
– The projection may be self-fulfilling because they are used for infrastructure investments but not based on sound knowledge about transport demands
Invitation from the Ministry of Transport and Energy to collaborate/follow the development of a new modelling tool for easier and better development of alternative scenarios, incl. energy and socio-ecnomomy.
Transport technologies – preliminary inputs
• Vehicle petrol (all under 2 ton) • Vehicle diesel (all under 2 ton)• Van petrol (between 2 and 6 ton)• Van diesel (between 2 and 6 ton)• Heavy vehicle diesel (all above 6 ton)• Domestic aviation• International aviation• Ferry diesel• Cargo ship diesel• Bus diesel• Train diesel• Train electricity• Fright train diesel• Fright train electricity
Vehicle specific energy demand
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
BEV Hybrid ICE Biodiesel ICE Ethanol ICE Biogas Diesel train Electric train
km/M
J
trains
cars
Renewable energy sources and land usage
• Crops can convert approx. ½-2 per cent radiation into biomass energy. i.e. 1-3 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of 1000-3000 ha/PJ)
• PV can convert approx. 10% of the radiation. E.g. 7 m2 of PV can produce 800-1000 kWh/year, i.e. equal to 13-16 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 200 ha/PJ)
• A 10 m² solar thermal unit can produce approx. 5000 kWh/year equal to 50-60 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 50 ha/PJ)
• A 150 kW wind turbine covers between 20 and 200 m2 and produces 300.000 kWh per year equal to 200 - 1500 W/m2 (equal to a gross area demand of approx. 10 ha/PJ)
RES and land use
W/m2
Energy production per area
0
25
50
75
Wind Power Solar Thermal Photo Voltaic Biomass CropsW
/m2
Energy production per area
0
400
800
1200
1600
Wind Power Solar Thermal Photo Voltaic Biomass Crops
W/m
2
RES and acres
Actual (year 2010) Possible (year 2050) Ha/PJ Gross area demand
Net area demand Gross area demand
Net area demand
BioDiesel *) Biogas Methanol Ethanol **) Electricity (wind)
25,000
6,000
9,000
18,000
10
15,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
10
11,000
6,000
9,000
14,000
10
11,000
6,000
9,000
8,000
10
Table 2: Gross and Net area demands for bio-fuel and electricity production (See appendix 3) *) RME/Vegetable oil based on rape year 2010 and Syn. diesel based on wood in 2050
**) Wheat grain in 2010 and Wheat grain and straw in 2050
Scenarios
• Actual 2010
• Possible 2010
• BAU (Business As Usual) 2050
• Ideal 2050
• Recommendable 2050 (CEESA scenario)
Prioritisation• High priority to electric vehicles,
low priority to biomass
• Within biomass:• 1. Biogas• 2. Bio-methanol• 3. Bio-ethonal• 4. Bio-Diesel
Results (so far..!)Demand Person Transportation
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Actual(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Actual(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Lowdemand
Highdemand
Pers
onkm
/yea
r
Bicycles
Airplanes
Ferry
Busses
Trains
Cars (>50km)
Cars (<50km)
Demand Goods Transportation
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Actual(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Actual(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Lowdemand
Highdemand
Mio
.t.k
m/y
ear
Ships
Trains
Van
Trucks
Fuel and electricity demand for transportation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Low demand High demand
PJ/y
ear
Electricity
Ethanol
Methanol
Biogas
Biodiesel
JF
Diesel
Petrol
Residual biomass potential in Denmark 165 – 400 PJ
Gross area demand for transportation
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Low demand High demand
km2
Electricity
Ethanol
Methanol
Biogas
Biodiesel
JF
Diesel
Petrol
Net area demand for transportation
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Actual(
2010)
Possible(
2010)
BAU(2050)
REC (2
050)
Ideal (20
50)
Low demand High demand
km2
Electricity
Ethanol
Methanol
Biogas
Biodiesel
JF
Diesel
Petrol
Farm land usage in Denmark in 2008 26,830 km2 (60%)
Points of discussion
Transport in CEESA at the present stage:• The methodology should be focused upon, the input data will be updated. Views
on the overall methodology?
• Can Denmark (and the rest of the world) convert to 100 per cent renewable energy if the transport demand continues to increase as expected in the BAU forecast?
• Which demand forecast will we include in the scenarios…?• What kind of public regulation initiatives should be used
• Other issues?