CE-QUAL-W2 Shasta Modeling Katherine Clancey Laurel Saito, Ph.D., P.E. Project Update - July ##,...
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CE-QUAL-W2 Shasta Modeling
Katherine ClanceyLaurel Saito, Ph.D., P.E.
Project Update - July ##, 2015Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences
University of Nevada, Reno
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Outline
• Meteorological data for Shasta Lake• Recalibration/verification of CE-QUAL-W2
(W2) Shasta model• Reliability of W2 water temperatures• Selecting segments to simulate temperature
curtains
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Meteorological data• Hourly inputs to W2: – air temperature– relative humidity– wind speed
• Observed data at Shasta Lake: daily air temperature– California Data Exchange Center (
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/)– Stations: Shasta Dam-Water Quality (SHD) & Shasta
Dam-USBR (SHS)
– wind direction– cloud cover
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Meteorological data
• Two datasets available for W2 Shasta model:– Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta
Lake• NOAA National Climatic Data Center (
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/)• Station: NOAA AWS 725920
– North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
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Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta Lake
• Used methods from Saito (1999):– Air temperatures: adjustment uses change in elevation
between Redding and Shasta Lake (~600 ft difference)– Dewpoint: adjustment uses change in elevation – Wind speed: adjustment uses regression equation– Wind direction: uses Redding data without adjustment – Cloud cover: uses Redding data without adjustment
Meteorological data
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NARR data• Output from numerical weather prediction model – assimilate data from various sources:
• upper air soundings• hourly and daily meteorology observations• satellite
• Provides all meteorological data needed for W2 • Used grid cell data nearest to Shasta Dam • Grid resolution is approximately 0.3 degrees (32 km)• 3-hour increments
Meteorological data
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/narr/format.html
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Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHS stationMeteorological data
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Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHD stationMeteorological data
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Wind rose• Wind is predominantly in the NW direction at Shasta Lake
Meteorological data
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Recalibration of W2 Shasta model
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Verification of W2
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Water surface elevation (calibration year): January 1995 to December 1995
Verification of W2
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Water surface elevation (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Verification of W2
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Water surface elevation (median year): January 2003 to September 2004
Verification of W2
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Water surface elevation (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006
Verification of W2
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Water temperature at segment 41 on the McCloud River: January 1995 to December 1995
Verification of W2El
evati
on (m
)
Temperature oC
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Water temperature at segment 53/54 on the Sacramento River: January 1995 to December 1995
Elev
ation
(m)
Temperature oC
Verification of W2
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Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
• Slight differences in performance metrics• Pros of using NARR data:– Currently being used to predict water temperatures
in Sacramento River– All meteorological data needed for W2 is in NARR
dataset• Cons:– Meteorological data is for entire grid which covers a
large area– 3-hour increments – need adjustment
Verification of W2
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Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2
• Pros of using Redding data adjusted to Shasta:– Method used for previous W2 model applications.– Data available in an hourly timestep
• Cons:– Data adjusted through several different methods
• Conclusion: Use NARR data for meteorological input to W2
Verification of W2
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Reliability of W2 water temperatures
• Forebay temperatures– Obtained data for 2001 to 2003 from USBR • No data available for 2004 to 2006
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2001-2002 Forebay temperatures (dry year)El
evati
on (ft
)
Temperature oC
Reliability of W2
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2003 Forebay temperatures (median year)El
evati
on (ft
)
Temperature oC
Reliability of W2
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Overall performance metricsReliability of W2
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CDEC Station ID: PMNLatitude 40.843oN Longitude -122.016oW
Water temperatures comparisons at the most upstream segments of the W2 model
Sacramento River McCloud River
Pit River Shasta Dam
Squaw Creek
Reliability of W2
CDEC Station ID: MSSLatitude 40.958oNLongitude -122.219oW
Not to scale
CDEC Station ID: DLTLatitude 40.93959oNLongitude -122.417oW
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Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Reliability of W2
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Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
Reliability of W2
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Water temperature comparison (median year): January 2003 to September 2004
Reliability of W2
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Water temperature comparison (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006
Reliability of W2
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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002
All runsNo runs
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
Temperature curtains
Fall and spring-run Chinook salmon only
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Pit River
Shasta Dam
Squaw Creek
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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (median year): January 2003 to September 2004
Temperature curtains
All runsNo runs
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Pit River
Shasta Dam
Squaw Creek
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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006
Temperature curtains
Sacramento River
McCloud River
Pit River Shasta Dam
Squaw Creek
All runsNo runs
Fall-run Chinook salmon only
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References
• Saito, L. S., 1999, Interdisciplinary modeling at Shasta Lake, Fort Collins: Colorado State University (Ph.D. dissertation)
• Caldwell, J., 2015, Shasta Modeling Project Coupling CE-QUAL-W2 and RAFT (Draft), MetStat, Inc.
QUESTIONS?