CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

  

Baseline for wind energy project in Tunisia

  

Second National Workshop March 31 & April 1, 2004

 

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Electric sector data

National operator: STEGRegulatory framework: STEG has the monopole on energy transport and distribution. Independent power production is allowed Electrification rate: 95%Demand increase: 6,5% per year Electric consumption: about 10.000 GWh on 2002Installed capacity: about 2800 MWPeak capacity: 1835 MW

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Evolution du parc de production électrique de la STEG

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

1990 1995 2000 2002

EolienHydrauliqueThermique

1380

Puissance en MW

1744

2384

2812

Power Production Park Evolution

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Electric sector data

Structure du parc de production électrique en 2002

Cycle combiné29,7%

TV39,7%

Eolien0,4%

Hydraulique2,2%

Thermique97,4% TG

28,0%

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

The Wind Energy project of Sidi Daoud

Location: North East Starting operation date: August 2000Capacity: 10,56 MWCost: 12,4 MDTFunding: STEG (20%), Long term spanish credit (80%)Extension on 2003 : 8,72 MW, 10,5 MDTInstitutional frame: direct operation by STEG

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Wind Energy Potential (capacity) Evolution de la capacité installée en éolien entre 2000 et 2030

Scénario volontariste

120420

8201 300

1 800

30

130

430

930

2 100

20

1 400

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

Parc éolien off shore

Parc éolien on shore

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Wind Energy potential (penetration rate)Taux de pénétration de l'éolien en % de la production électrique

Scénario volontariste

2,4%

6,0%9,0%

11,1% 12,3% 11,8%

1,5%

4,0%

6,9% 8,5%

0,5%

0,5%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Taux de pénétration de l'éolien off shoreTaux de pénétration de l'éolien on shore

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Barriers to Wind Energy development in Tunisia

high capital technology Wind kWh not competitive with conventional power generation

Wind energy does not avoid capacityIt substitutes “only” fuel needed to produce marginal kWh

No suitable regulatory and institutional framework No mechanism to support the incremental cost between wind kWh and conventional kWh

No specific incentives to the wind sector

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Wind Energy CDM Project of Sidi Abderrahmen

Location: North East of Tunisia, Sidi Abderrahmen Mountain

Wind quality: 8 to 9 m/s in 30 m

Performance: 3200 hours/year

Capacity: 100 MW

Investment: about 100 MUSD, private sector

Institutional framework: Independent production

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Methods used for baseline calculation

Method 1: Actual average efficiency of the power production park on 2002

Method 2: Historical average efficiency of the power production park 1992-2002

Method 3: Calculation based on the generators installed within the 5 last years and who is among the 20% most efficiency generators in operation in the park

Method 4: Calculation based on marginal generators average

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 1 & 2)

Method 1: Efficiency average of the electric production sector 2002

Fuel

Power generation

(GWh)Fuel consumption

(tep)

Specific consumption

(tep/GWh) Efficiency% of

consumptionN. Gas 7 978 2 087 605 262 33% 97,2%Fuel Oil 193 58 751 304 28% 2,7%Gas Oil 5 2 246 449 19% 0,1%

Total 8 176 2 148 602 263 33% 100%

Method 2: Efficiency average of the electric production sector 1992-2002

Fuel

Power generation

(GWh)Fuel consumption

(teo)

Specific consumption

(teo/GWh) Efficiency% of

consumptionN. Gas 78 848 20 767 724 263 33% 85,6%Fuel Oil 11 943 3 397 866 285 30% 14,0%Gas Oil 247 93 375 378 23% 0,4%

Total 91 037 24 258 965 266 32% 100%

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Fuel Site Techn.Specific cons.

(teo/GWh) Effic. RankGN Sousse CC 195 44% 1GN - FO Radés B TV 246 35% 2GN - FO Radés A TV 252 34% 3GN - FO Sousse TV 269 32% 4GN Bir M'cherga TG 311 28% 5GN Bouchemma 2 TG 316 27% 6FO Goulette II TV 326 26% 7

GN - FO Ghannouch TV 335 26% 8

GN - GO Sfax TG 367 23% 9GN Ghannouch TG 377 23% 10GN Kasserine TG 387 22% 11GN Korba TG 394 22% 12GN Bouchemma 1 TG 406 21% 13GN Tunis-sud TG 409 21% 14GO M.Bourguiba TG 414 21% 15GO Robbana TG 419 21% 16GO Zarzis TG 485 18% 17

Baseline (method 3)

Top 20%

Generators installed within the 5 last years

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 3)

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 3)

Method 3: Last five years / 20% most efficient generators

Fuel

Power generation

(GWh)Fuel consumption

(teo)

Specific consumption

(teo/GWh) Efficiency% of

consumptionN. Gas 5 645 1 417 974 251 34% 97,8%Fuel Oil 127 31 880 251 34% 2,2%

Total 5 772 1 449 854 251 34% 100%

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Pick period (2 hours)

Day period (12 hours)

Marginal generators

Base generators

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Pick period (2 hours)

Day period (12 hours)

Marginal generators

Base generators

Wind Energy farm contribution

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Pick period (2 hours)

Day period (12 hours)

Marginal generators

Base generators

Pick period (2 hours)

Day period (12 hours)

Night period (10 hours)

30%: TV70%: TG0%: CC

80%: TV0%: TG20%: CC

0%: TV100%: TG0%: CC

Contribution to the marginal power production

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4)

Method 4: Representative virtual power generator

Fuel

Specific consumption

(teo/GWh) EfficiencyN. Gas 300 29%

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Energy saving

Ligne de base kteo (20 years)Method 1 1 764 Method 2 1 793 Method 3 1 688 Method 4 2 016

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) GHG Emissions reduction

4 279 4 524

4 077

4 840

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 Method 4

1000

x T

ECO

2

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

GHG emissions reduction

Baseline method1000 x TECO2 (20

years) Diff.Method 1 4 279 13%Method 2 4 524 7%Method 3 4 077 19%Method 4 4 840

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Economic issues

Baseline methodNet value (8%) of

CDM revenueNet value (0%) of

CDM revenue

Net value of incremental

cost (0%)Method 1 6 13 18 Method 2 6 14 19 Method 3 6 12 17 Method 4 7 15 20

Investment / net value of CD revenue(8%) 6% to 7%Net value of CD revenue(8%) / Incremental cost 72%

CD for CDM - Second National Workshop on Baselines (Phase II) Cairo, March 31 & April 1, 2004

Power generators selection for baseline calculation (method 4) Electric load curve (2002)

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Pick period (2 hours)

Day period (12 hours)

Night period (10 hours)

30%: TV70%: TG0%: CC

80%: TV0%: TG20%: CC

0%: TV100%: TG0%: CC