CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd… · 2018. 8. 28. · Beta 0.9 Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 497420 P/BV...

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Aug 27, 2018

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Skipper Ltd

No. of shares (m) 102.7 Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 1394/198.7

Current price (Rs/$) 136/1.9

Price target (Rs/$)

184/2.6

52 W H/L (Rs.) 293/110

Book Value (Rs/$) 61/0.9

Beta 0.9

Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 497420

P/BV (FY19e/20e) 2.0/1.7

EV/EBITDA (FY19e/20e) 6.5/5.4

P/E (FY19e/20e) 13.0/9.6

EPS growth (FY18/19e/20e) -4.9/-9.9/35.9

OPM (FY18/19e/20e) 14.6/12.0/12.3

ROE (FY18/19e/20e) 21.0/16.2/19.0

ROCE(FY18/19e/20e) 16.4/14.4/16.3

D/E ratio (FY18/19e/20e) 0.8/0.7/0.6

BSE Code 538562

NSE Code SKIPPER

Bloomberg SKIPPER IN

Reuters SKIP.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 70.2

MFs / Banks / FIs/Others 11.1

FPIs 6.3

Govt. Holding 0.0

Public & Others 12.4

Total 100.0

As on Jun 30, 2018

Recommendation

BUY

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

(Figures in Rs crs)

FY16

FY17 FY18

FY19e FY20e

Income from operations 1506.22 1664.60 2073.12 2407.52 2822.58

Other Income 5.17 3.16 2.19 2.31 2.44

EBITDA (other income included) 232.23 275.36 304.74 291.06 350.11

Profit after EO 95.40 124.27 118.53 106.85 145.24

EPS (Rs) 9.32 12.15 11.55 10.41 14.15

EPS growth (%) 6.7 30.3 -4.9 -9.9 35.9

Company Brief

Skipper is one of the India's leading producers of power T&D structures and

also deals in polymer pipes & fittings. It currently has an installed capacity

of 265000 mtpa for engineering products and 51000 mtpa for polymer

products.

Highlights

� To revive its polymer business, Skipper has hired Vector Consultancy to

implement structural changes such as supply chain restructuring,

retailer incentives and margin overhaul through roll out of The Theory

of Constraints (TOC). Whereupon EBITDA margin (without forex)

contracted perceptibly in Q1 from 9.2% in Q1FY18 to a meager 1.2%

now, little in sync with 46% growth in revenues; forex unadjusted the

segment posted a loss of Rs 0.75 crs from a profit of Rs 3.09 crs in the

same period a year ago.

� For engineering products business, much of its volume driven revenue

growth of 20.2% failed to prevent margin erosion for the segment

posted 8.5% drop in EBIT not least due to MTM loss on forward cover

for exports. However, adjusted for forex, EBITDA margin rose to 11.8%

from 10.1% in the same period a year ago. Rising share of non T&D

products such as telecom towers, railway and solar structures also

buttressed volume off take. Overall engineering business margin

suffered not least due to higher incidence of fixed price T&D contracts

executed during the quarter.

� Interest cost also surged by some 62% in Q1 (yoy) and 14.5% (q-oq)

largely due to higher working capital requirement on account of

lengthening debtor collection period and inventory built up to support

future supply commitments. PBT as a result dived 74.2% to Rs 6.38 crs

and PAT collapsed to Rs 4.5 crs from Rs 15.98 crs in the same period a

year ago.

� The stock currently trades at 13.0x FY19e EPS of Rs 10.41 and 9.6x FY20e

EPS of Rs 14.15. Nothing could prevent margin stress in polymer

business unless dealer margins are rationalized for volumes continue to

remain strong. Engineering business margins too have come off from

record measures over the last few years. Yet further deterioration of

margin bears little chance. With revival in polymers business sometime

by next fiscal, earnings would vigorously revive. On balance, we

recommend buying the stock with revised target of Rs 184 (previous

target: Rs 262) based on 13x FY20e earnings (forward peg: 1.2) over a

period of 9-12 months.

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Outlook & Recommendation

Order inflows

Reinforced by flurry of domestic orders (read: non -PGCIL), Skipper's engineering order inflows leapt to Rs 1900 crs last

fiscal, yet barely enough to nudge total order book tally (Rs 2627 crs Vs Rs 2589 crs), which has only scantily risen in last few

years (see chart). Thence, order book shares of both PGCIL and exports not indistinctly dived to the lowest in several years -

PGCIL's down to 44% from an average of 50% in preceding three years , thus little cushioning growing sclerosis in order

book. After averaging some Rs 500 crs (quarterly) in FY18, engineering business order inflows flutteringly plunged to Rs 225

crs in Q1, invoking not little queasiness for PGCIL ordering is facing not small distress. Yet order inflows not only from

newer regions in Americas like Paraguay, Panama but also for novel products like tubular telecom towers have filled Q1's

order book.

Capex

Nearly unceasing demand for transmission products over the years has goaded Skipper to more than double its engineering

segment capacity over the last four years. After adding some 35000 mt last fiscal, plans are on undertaken to add 35000 mt

more this fiscal (though in phases) with investments of Rs 30-40 crs. Volume growth in excess of 10% over the last couple of

years has barely helped capacity utilization to wither for Skipper posted utilization of some 90% (probably excluding new

capacities) in last two years. In no smallish feat, Skipper's 30000 mt Guwahati plant would now bid for transmission projects

of PGCIL in North East region after the recently approval for supply of galvanized tower structures.

Financials & Valuation

Burgeoning demand for electricity has prodded India to relentlessly expand capacities of both generation and transmission &

distribution. According to industry reports India reported 5.3% growth in generation capacity, ~6% growth in transmission

lines and ~12% rise in substation capacity last fiscal. Demand for power transmission projects would remain little stymied

thanks to GOI's entrenched focus on last mile connectivity with schemes like Saubhagya, IPDS and DUGJY. Radical and path

breaking measures such as migration to higher transmission voltages of up to 1,200 kV, high capacity power transmission

corridors (HCPTCs)and new technologies for bulk power transmission are being mulled to enhance energy efficiency. By

some estimates, high capacity transmission corridors comprising 765 kV AC and ±800 kV 6000 MW HVDC system along

with 400 kV AC and ±500 kV/600 kV have been planned to facilitate transfer of power from remotely located generation

complexes to bulk load centres.

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Yet pernicious execution issues does not fail to invade, most notably right of way, land acquisition, environment & forest

clearances, etc, which little lessen time & cost overruns and mobilization issues for EPC companies. The GOI projects an addition

of over 1,00,000 ckm of transmission lines and over 2,90,000 MVA of transformation capacity between 2017-2022, precipitating

investments of Rs 2.6 lakh crs. Skipper barely intends to miss rising T&D opportunities in North-East India for which GOI has

allocated Rs 100bn.

Electricity Demand by Region (TWh)

Source: World Energy Outlook 2016, International Energy Agency

Notwithstanding no mild setbacks to piping demand from demonetization & RERA, GOI's ambitious programs like Swatch

Bharat Abhiyan, AMRUT and Smart Cities Mission have enliven demand for piping products. Cost of financing would scarcely

remain elevated and funding hardly an issue for property developers post award of infrastructure status to affordable housing.

Organized sector - 60% for PVC pipes by some estimate and 80% for CPVC segment - would no longer remain thwarted post

implementation of GST. Little to count perceptible advantages of PVC/CPVC pipes over GI pipes - longer life and higher

strength - which has invigorated its demand from industry.

To tap no miniscule opportunities in micro irrigation in India, Skipper tied up with Metzerplas, a leading global player, to

manufacture and implement drip irrigation systems through a 50% partnership interest in the LLP. Higher allocations to

Government of India's far schemes like PMKSY prodded this agreement with this Israeli manufacturer. To burnish its

engineering segment, new products like solar structures (ground based module mounting structures; roof top mounting

structures; seasonal tilt structures) and railway electrification centered EPC and railway structures were rolled out last fiscal.

Blighted by MTM loss on fx derivatives, earnings withered last quarter. Yet steady engineering business volume growth

(expected at mid -teens for the next two years) coupled with steady margins (though not with positive bias) would cushion

earning setbacks from restructuring of polymer business. Its North American markets for supply of power transmission towers

and poles would now revive with clearance of Canadian Welding Bureau (CWB) audit recently. Though Indian Railways

approval has hastened its plan to manufacture and supply various types of overhead wiring support structures like portals,

masts, beams, gantries, and substation & customized steel structures, its impact now would be miniscule at best.

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The stock currently trades at 13.0x FY19e EPS of Rs 10.41 and 9.6x FY20e EPS of Rs 14.15. Revival in earnings would await barely

inefficacious restructuring of polymers business (EBIT margin estimate awfully trimmed to 1% for FY19 from 9% earlier) and

stabilization of engineering products margin. Growing uncertainties in polymer business has prompted a cut in current year

earnings by a third. Yet strong market share in domestic market of transmission towers coupled with recent inroads in to newer

segments of railway electrification, solar structures and telecom towers would rarely suppress order inflows. Stress in return on

capital would be restricted by a buoyant recovery in earnings next fiscal (though on a small base). Weighing odds, we maintain our

buy rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 184 (previous target: Rs 262) based on 13x FY20e earnings (forward peg: 1.2) over a

period of 9-12 months. For more info, refer to our September report.

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP (Rs)

Market cap*

Income from ops* Profit*

OPM (%)

NPM (%)

Int. Cov.

ROE (%)

Mkt cap / sales P/BV P/E

Skipper 10.3 136 1394 2154 107 13.8 5.0 2.8 18.6 0.6 2.2 13.0

KEC 51.42 316 8119 10306 485 11.0 4.7 3.2 30.2 0.8 4.5 16.7

Kalpataru 30.69 369 5667 5897 333 11.0 5.6 5.7 12.5 1.0 2.0 17.0

*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis

Book value adjusted for goodwill and revaluation reserves where applicable

Little stymied by spurt of both domestic and international orders, KPTL's order inflows surged by over 51% last fiscal with the T&D

business recording some sizeable orders - Rs 1092 crs for substations and transmission line in West Africa; transmission line orders

from Afghanistan, Bangladesh & Nepal worth Rs 985 crs; transmission line turnkey project for Tamil Nadu Transmission

Corporation for Rs 603 crs; orders for transmission line construction, augmentation and supply in overseas markets for Rs 545 crs.

Unflinching focus on non T&D business has helped secure pipeline and railways orders with its cumulative order book share rising

to 32% from just 16% in FY17. Last fiscal it strengthened its overseas presence by bagging orders not only from established regions

such as Botswana, Sierra Leone, Thailand and Afghanistan but also from newer territories like Columbia, Mauritania and Ivory

Coast. Yet T&D overseas segment order book share pummeled to 40% from 52% a year ago.

Its most recent orders include building transmission line and substation in Tajikistan and India totaling Rs. 346 crs; design, supply,

erection, testing & commissioning for railway electrification, signaling and associated civil works from RVNL for Rs.185 crs (in a

consortium); laying of pipeline & associated works of Rs. 151 crs from Andhra Pradesh Gas Distribution Corporation; construction of

railway infrastructure from Bangladesh Railways (in consortium) wherein KPTL’s share is Rs. 553 crs.

Galvanized by record order inflows for building Indian railway infrastructure and substantial headways in T&D business in Brazil

and SAARC regions, KEC's order book surged by some 22% in FY18, marking discernible gain its railway business order inflow

share (26% Vs 12% in FY17). As a result, its order book also surged by some 37% in FY18 with the ever powerful transmission

business (including SAE) corner bulk of the pie. Some of the new orders in FY19 include turnkey order for strengthening of

transmission Systems in Bihar from Bihar Grid Company Limited (BGCL); turnkey order for 132 kV D/C overhead transmission line

at Bangladesh; overhead electrification works and associated civil works aggregating Rs. 928 crore across India; 400 kV GIS

substation in North Eastern India from PGCIL; 138 kV Transmission Line and associated substation in Nicaragua; orders for various

400 kV Transmission Lines in Dubai.

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Financials

Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs Q1FY19 Q1FY18 % chg. FY18 FY17 % chg.

Revenue from Operations 478.70 398.83 20.0 2073.72 1664.60 24.6

Other Income 0.32 0.75 -56.9 2.19 3.16 -30.6

Total Income 479.02 399.58 19.9 2075.91 1667.76 24.5

Total Expenditure 433.72 347.22 24.9 1771.17 1392.40 27.2

EBIDTA (other income incl.) 45.30 52.36 -13.5 304.74 275.36 10.7

Interest 27.40 16.86 62.6 78.45 67.08 16.9

Depreciation 11.52 10.75 7.2 45.91 31.56 45.5

PBT 6.38 24.76 -74.2 180.39 176.72 2.1

Tax 1.88 8.78 -78.6 62.63 52.51 19.3

Net Profit 4.50 15.98 -71.8 117.76 124.22 -5.2

Extraordinary Item - - - -0.76 -0.05 1473.5

Adjusted Net Profit 4.50 15.98 -71.8 118.53 124.27 -4.6 EPS 0.44 1.56 -71.9 11.55 12.15 -4.9

Segment results Figures in Rs crs

Q1FY19 Q1FY18 % chg. FY18 FY17 % chg.

Segment Revenue

Engineering Products 404.09 365.14 10.7 1807.19 1503.38 20.2

Polymer Products 56.09 43.30 29.5 214.89 213.24 0.8

Infrastructure Products 18.52 24.28 -23.7 85.54 80.55 6.2

Total* 478.70 432.72* 10.6 2107.62* 1797.17* 17.3

Segment EBIT

Engineering Products 40.19 43.95 -8.5 264.79 233.56 13.4

Polymer Products -0.75 3.09 -124.1 15.09 16.58 -9.0

Infrastructure Products 2.38 2.95 -19.2 10.81 11.44 -5.5

Total 41.83 49.98 -16.3 290.69 261.58 11.1

Interest 27.40 16.86 62.6 78.45 67.08 16.9

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 8.05 8.37 -3.8 31.85 17.78 79.2

PBT 6.38 24.76 -74.2 180.39 176.72 2.1 *include excise duty

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Income Statement Figures in Rs crs FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e

Revenue from Operations 1506.22 1664.60 2073.72 2407.52 2822.58

Growth (%) 14.7 10.5 24.6 16.1 17.2

Other Income 5.17 3.16 2.19 2.31 2.44

Total Income 1511.39 1667.76 2075.91 2409.83 2825.02

Total Expenditure 1279.16 1392.40 1771.17 2118.78 2474.90

EBIDTA (other income incl.) 232.23 275.36 304.74 291.06 350.11

Interest 64.82 67.08 78.45 89.13 92.88

EBDT 167.41 208.28 226.30 201.93 257.24

Depreciation 24.12 31.56 45.91 47.08 49.74

Tax 48.17 52.51 62.63 48.00 62.25

Net Profit 95.13 124.22 117.76 106.85 145.24

Extraordinary Item -0.27 -0.05 -0.76 0.00 0.00

Adjusted Net Profit 95.40 124.27 118.53 106.85 145.24

EPS* (Rs) 9.32 12.15 11.55 10.41 14.15

Segment results Figures in Rs crs

FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e

Segment Revenue

Engineering Products 1503.38 1807.19 2035.33 2374.787

Polymer Products 213.24 214.89 284.95 356.20

Infrastructure Products 80.55 85.54 87.25 91.6

Total 1797.17 2107.62 2407.52 2822.58

Segment EBIT

Engineering Products 233.56 264.79 264.59 314.66

Polymer Products 16.58 15.09 2.85 14.25

Infrastructure Products 11.44 10.81 11.34 12.37

Total 261.58 290.69 278.78 341.27

Interest 67.08 78.45 89.13 92.88

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 17.78 31.85 34.80 40.90

PBT 176.72 180.39 154.85 207.49

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Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 10.23 10.23 10.26 10.27 10.27

Reserves 412.29 521.89 627.02 714.32 839.15

Total Shareholders Funds 422.52 532.12 637.27 724.59 849.41

Long term debt 197.84 175.37 166.66 148.46 135.41

Total Liabilities 620.36 707.49 803.94 873.05 984.83

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 518.20 628.52 694.82 734.89 767.89

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 100.35 131.68 173.95 221.02 270.77

Net Block 417.84 496.85 520.87 513.87 497.13

Capital Work in Progress 39.95 14.36 1.58 - -

Investments - - - - -

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 249.99 368.18 562.27 646.61 743.61

Sundry Debtors 371.73 372.20 516.44 601.88 705.65

Cash and Bank 49.80 24.94 17.58 23.85 25.41

Loans & Adv. & others 97.33 97.91 120.98 132.88 145.26

Total CA & LA 768.84 863.23 1217.27 1405.22 1619.92

Current Liabilities 558.07 617.79 863.18 984.68 1075.94

Provisions 2.08 0.47 17.56 14.47 18.03

Total Current Liabilities 560.15 618.26 880.74 999.15 1093.97

Net Current Assets 208.69 244.97 336.53 406.07 525.95

Net Deferred Tax -47.50 -62.56 -53.85 -44.50 -35.13

Other Assets (Net Of Liabilities) 1.38 13.88 -1.18 -2.39 -3.12

Total Assets 620.36 707.49 803.94 873.05 984.83

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Key Financial Ratios

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e

Growth Ratios (%)

Revenue 14.7 10.5 24.6 16.1 17.2

EBIDTA (other income included) 1.4 18.4 11.1 -4.9 20.3

Net Profit 6.7 30.3 -4.6 -9.9 35.9

EPS 6.7 30.3 -4.9 -9.9 35.9

Margins (%)

Operating Profit Margin 15.1 16.4 14.6 12.0 12.3

Gross Profit Margin 11.1 12.5 11.0 8.4 9.1

Net Profit Margin 6.3 7.5 5.7 4.4 5.1

Return (%)

ROCE 17.8 18.8 16.4 14.4 16.3

ROE 27.1 27.1 21.0 16.2 19.0

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5

EV/EBIDTA 7.8 8.4 8.8 6.5 5.4

P/E 14.3 15.1 18.6 13.0 9.6

P/BV 3.4 3.7 3.6 2.0 1.7

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 3.2 3.6 3.3 2.7 3.2

Debt-Equity Ratio 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

Current Ratioa 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.6

Total Asset Turnover 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1

Debtors Turnover 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.3

Inventory Turnover 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.5 3.6

Creditors Turnover 5.6 5.6 4.5 4.0 4.1 WC Ratios

Debtor days 90.6 81.6 78.2 84.8 84.5

Inventory days 68.3 81.0 95.9 104.1 102.5

Creditor days 64.8 65.8 80.4 90.8 88.6

Cash conversion cycle 94.0 96.8 93.8 98.1 98.5

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Cumulative Financial Data Figures in Rs crs FY12-14 FY15-17 FY18-20e

Income from operations 2683 4484 7304

Operating profit 275 727 940

EBIT 240 660 804

PBT 79 457 544

PAT after EO* 53 309 371

Dividends 4 52 62

Engineering EBIT 204 608 844

Polymer EBIT 31 43 32

Infrastructure products EBIT 28 27 35

OPM (%) 10.2 16.2 12.9

GPM (%) 4.4 11.9 9.4

NPM (%) 2.0 6.9 5.1

Interest coverage 1.5 3.3 3.1

ROE (%) 10.1 27.8 18.4

ROCE (%) 9.6 18.4 15.8

Debt-equity ratio* 1.8 0.8 0.6

Fixed asset turnover 3.3 3.6 4.9

Total asset turnover 2.5 2.6 2.9

Debtors turnover 5.5 4.9 4.5

Inventory turnover 4.0 4.2 3.8

Creditors turnover 8.9 5.6 4.6

Debtors days 66.1 73.8 80.8

Inventory days 92.1 87.0 95.7

Creditor days 41.2 64.9 79.7

Cash conversion cycle 117.0 95.9 96.7

Dividend payout ratio (%) 7.1 17.0 16.7

FY12-14 implies three years ending fiscal 14; *as on terminal year

Sturdiness of Skipper's engineering segment could scarcely be undermined for it accounted for bulk of its growth in EBIT over

the last many years. Allocable EBIT of its engineering segment would zoom to Rs 844 crs in FY18-20e from just Rs 204 crs in

FY12-14 period, while the profit of polymer business has worryingly staggered - despite scarcely timid revenue growth.

Scathed largely by terrible margin suppression in its polymers business - more recently due to prodigious dealer incentives -

but also somewhat from transmission segment's margin climb-down, overall operating margin in FY18-20e period is

estimated to decline to 12.9% from 16.2% in three years ending FY17. After growing nearly six fold in FY15-17 period (see

chart), post tax earnings (cumulative) would grow by 19.9%.

Steady accumulation of debt would hardly resurrect flagging return on capital not least due to stress in earnings and poor

capacity utilization of pits polymer capacity. ROE as a result would struggle to rise - 18.4% in FY18-20 period from 27.8% in

FY15-17 period. Fixed asset turnover ratio though would rise to the highest in recent years. Cash conversion cycle would flat

line to nearly 97 days (see table).

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated million $ FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e

Equity capital 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5

Shareholders funds 61.1 79.1 94.8 100.4 118.1

Total debt 70.4 67.4 76.4 75.1 75.3

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 69.0 78.8 80.3 73.3 70.9

Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net current assets 28.9 34.8 48.6 55.0 72.0

Total assets 90.9 106.2 120.5 121.6 137.4

Revenues 230.1 248.1 321.8 343.3 402.4

EBITDA 35.5 41.1 47.5 41.5 49.9

EBDT 25.6 31.1 35.3 28.8 36.7

PBT 22.0 26.4 28.2 22.1 29.6

PAT 14.6 18.5 18.4 15.2 20.7

EPS($) 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.20

Book value ($) 0.60 0.77 0.92 0.98 1.15

income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rate ($70.14/$)

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Disclosure& Disclaimer CD Equisearch Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as ‘CD Equi’) is a Member registered with National Stock Exchange of India Limited,

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