CCAFS Theme 4 Strategy: Integration for Decision Making
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Transcript of CCAFS Theme 4 Strategy: Integration for Decision Making
CRP7 - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityTheme 4, Integration for Decision Making
Bonn, June 2011
Options and alternatives
Global
Household
Behavioural change
Assessing impacts and trade-offs
Policy context Knowledge into action
Options and alternatives
T1, T2, T3
Global
Household
Behavioural change
Assessing impacts and trade-offs
Policy contextT4.3
Knowledge into actionT4.1
Data, tools, methodsT4.2
Global scenarios …
… regional scenarios …
(demand, land use, global prices, etc)
Inputs
Ecosystem services
(regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc)
Checks for coherence, consistency, viability
Evaluating options:• Incomes• Food security• Livelihoods• Trade-offs
… household assessment
… providing context and inputs to …
… providing context and inputs to …
Checks for coherence, consistency, viability
AggregationDisaggregation
Integration
VISION
• Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context
• Synthesize lessons learned
• Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
• Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
• Build partners’ capacity
Objective One: Linking knowledge with action
Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning
Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
Integration for Decision Making · 4
Integration for Decision Making · 4
4.1
• Regional scenarios
• Vulnerability assessments
• Approaches to decision making informed by good science
• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups
Linking knowledge with
action
4.2
• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts
• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development
• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders
Data & tools for analysis & planning
4.3
• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, international transactions
• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies
• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups
Frameworks for policy analysis
Major uncertainties to 2030 identified by regional scenarios exercise in East Africa
• Degree of regional integration (status quo / enhanced)• Approach to environmental and external stresses (proactive / reactive)
The way these uncertainties play out will dramatically affect agriculture and food security development pathways
• Priority setting• Impact assessment• Communications• CG centres, national & regional organisations, policy- & decision-makers
Vulnerability mapping
Domains defined by exposure + sensitivity + coping capacity
LGP delta >5% threshold
Domain Area (km2) Population
LLL 4,508,660 40,275,900
LLH 13,120,500 102,357,000
LHL 1,412,400 89,935,000
LHH 3,321,920 219,658,000
HLL 13,248,100 126,387,000
HLH 22,374,000 155,368,000
HHL 5,172,800 369,162,000
HHH 5,078,220 238,567,000
Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households
CCAFS outputs
• Sites for participatory action research• Guidance for research foci• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts
Why useful?
Baseline surveys at household, village, organisational levels
New knowledge on how alternative policy and adaptation / mitigation options affect agriculture, food security, natural resources, trade, under climate change
Differential impacts of options on different social groups
Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa
Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa
With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere
With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere
• Priority setting• Impact assessment• Technology evaluation• Information provision & communications at several levels
Analytical frameworks for integrated analysis
Common themes
• Data collection, storage, manipulation (climate data downscaling, weather grids, baselines, site characterisation data, …)
• Model development, meta-analyses and dissemination (crop / livestock models, integrated assessment models, inventories, wikis, …)
• Targeting for CCAFS and beyond, and evaluation of alternatives (policy, technology, investments)
Can help to play a coordinating role among different partners
• Inventories of activities• Look for synergies and gaps, and facilitate activities• Getting results used (knowledge into action)• Capacity building
Theme 4 integration