General Circulation of the Atmosphere Lisa Goddard 19 September 2006.
CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate
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Transcript of CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate
1. Climate models Projections 21st century
Large scale
2. Regionalization
3. Localized Distributions
??? Climate Variability and Change Information for Building Resilience
Lisa Goddard International Research Institute for Climate & Society
The Earth Institute, Columbia University [email protected]
Acknowledgements: Walter Baethgen, Arthur Greene
1-2 May 2012 1 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Dealing with Climate Variability
and Change
1-2 May 2012 3 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
???
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Sept. 8, 2008 EESC W4400x
Global Climate Change Projections
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Climate Variability & Change Globally
Temperature
Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying “climate change” component.
65%
13%
21%
(Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010)
Annual Mean Temperature
5 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
1-2 May 2012 6 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF
~0%
17%
80%
Temperature
21%
8%
69%
Precipitation
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
1-2 May 2012 7 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJF
~0%
17%
80%
Temperature
21%
8%
69%
Precipitation
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
8
Precipitation Trends: of total variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 9
Precipitation Decadal Variability: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 10
Precipitation Decadal Variability: % of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations – Jul-Aug-Sep Seasonal Means
12%
40%
46%
DECOMPOSITION Timescales Simulations Research Issues
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/
1-2 May 2012 11 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
(Greene, et al. 2012)
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Decadal Variability
1-2 May 2012 12 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology
(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 13 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology
(a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 14 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
Total Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology
(e.g. a farmer can get 5 to 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing)
How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc?
How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales?
How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies?
How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions?
There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance)
1-2 May 2012 15 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
1-2 May 2012 16 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Take Away Points
1 – Consider climate at all timescales … for establishing resilience, for informing management, and for planning 2 – Test current systems/options to current climate risk 3 – Strive for “informed uncertainty” (won’t get that straight from models) 4 – Incorporate mechanisms to deal with residual risk
18
Precipitation Trends: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means
1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop
Timescales Simulations Research Issues
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/