CC AND MIGRATION;A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent

Developed Country

Triarko Nurlambang

Center for Applied Geography

The University of Indonesia

CC impact towards Migration ?? • Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates

- complexity understanding increase less linear way of thinking

- political intervention vs academicians & NGOs influencion/advocation in creating public opinions (“CC hysteria”; “mis-leading” public understanding; creates public confusion: better wait than do something costly)

• Indonesia – Australia: a comparative study in the context of climate change - Different geographical settings (physical and social-culture landscape); displacement, vulnerability - Demographic Theory: migration flow from Indonesia to Australia (hypothesis)

• Is there any direct Climate Change impact on migration? - Uncertain impact : problem of understanding decision making process (as well as complexity of phenomena) and prediction methods. Moving decision is more complex process of making decision for most Asian people (including Indonesia; if not forced) compare to Australia - In terms of living system (system thinking: adaptive and mitigation): from mental models to reality, CC is seems as an evolution change process rather than revolution (we still have time to improve adaptive capacity) - Those problems gear to the capacity of adaptation development (especially dealing with localities understanding)

• The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly scenario (Oli Brown, 2008)

• Conclusion - CC and migration is a systemic complex phenomena where Ina. Delaying intervention on “BAU” may be top

priority.

- Aussie can be put as one entity of regional system for living

- So what is the common ground between Ina. and Aussie dealing with CC and migration? building

learning process for better understanding

• Warming 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade• Increase in annual precipitation across islands, except in the south (projected to decline by 15%)• Change in the seasonality of precipitation; parts of Sumatra and Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by 2080’s (Dec-Feb); Jakarta projected to be 5- 15% drier (Jun-Aug)• 30-day delay in the annual monsoon, 10% increase in rainfall later in the crop year (April-June), and up to 75% decrease in rainfall later in the dry season (July–September)• Mean sea level increase 31 mm by the next decade; and it is predicted that about 2,000 island in Indonesia will disappear by 2030• In case of Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, it is predicted that by the 2050 some settlement areas and main harbour Tanjung Priok will be flooded

INDONESIA AND CC PREDICTION

Direct Climate Changes

Indirect Climate Changes

Type of Movement Time Span

Gradual climate change

Chronic disasters, such as drought, degradation

Seasonal labour migration. Temporary circulation

Seasonal

Gradual climate change

Chronic disasters drought/ degradation

Contract labour migration

Yearly

Sudden or gradual climate change

Natural disasters/ severe drought/ famine/ floods

Forced/ distress migration

Temporary

Sudden or gradual climate change

Extreme temperatures/ sea level rise

Permanent migration Lifetime

Source: Raleigh, et. al (2008)

Environmental system

Climate change and variability

Extreme events

Air, Water, Land quality and availability

Sea level rise

En

vir.

imp

acts

Changes in emissions and land cover

Changes in Water, Land, Air, Capital,

Labour stockand productivity

Change in Production andconsumption

patterns

Eco

n. i

mp

acts

Vul

nera

bili

ty

PoliciesMitigationAdaptation

Economic system

EnvironmentalPressures

EconomicPressures

Inter-relation between Environmental System and Economic System may creates migration

Migration

Adaptive (and mitigation) capacity developing

Ecology

Economy

Social Structure

Attention

Metaphysics

Epistemology

Cognitive Process

Westerners Orientation

Cognitive Process

Epistemology

Metaphysics

Attention

Social Structure

Economy

Ecology

Asians Orientation

Source: Nisbett, Richard E., 2003

Public Awareness and Understanding: the Fuel of

Change

Reorienting Education to Climate Change Impact towards Sustainable Development

Shifting to Sustainable Lifestyle: Changing Consumption and Production Pattern

Ethics, Culture, Equity: Sustainable as a Moral

Imperative

Mobilizing for Action

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1997

Pattern of Change

Continue change

Continue change & accelerated

Un-continue change (incremental change)

Climate Change is seems an evolution rather than

revolution adaptive and mitigation capacity have greater opportunity to be

improved

Public Policies :

Government

Public Action : Public

initiative

Scenario Assumption Typology of climate change impact (2050)

The Good Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)Clean Management DevelopmentAll big emission producer countries join the international carbon emission commitment

Relatively lowAtmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 600 ppmAverage temperature rise by 1.80 CSea level rise 18-38 cmMigration increase by 5 – 10% along the displacement areas

The Bad Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)The international commitment to reduce gas emission is delay due to remain usage of fossil fuelSome funds are invested to adapt but not enough

Relatively quite highAtmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 850 ppmAverage temperature rise by 2.40 C (Stern report: a 30C temperature rise would mean 1 to 4 billion people suffer water shortage)Sea level rise 21-48 cmMillions of people would be temporarily displaced by individual extreme weather events.

The Ugly Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structureA “business as usual” scenario in consuming fossil fuel

Relatively highAtmosphere concentration of CO2 around 1550 ppmAverage temperature rise by 4.00 C Sea level rise 29-59 cmIt may exceeding the 200 millions people displaced by climate change

Oli Brown, 2008

Surely a quality education which covered Life Skills and based on the achievement of sustainable development

Learning

Level of the learner processes

Content

What the learner brings

Seeks out learners

EnvironmentSupportive legislative framework

Implementation of good policies

Level of the learner processes

Resources Means to measure learning outcomes

“Education is an indispensable element for achieving sustainable development”

GoI Response to CLIMATE CHANGE

- As a consequence of COP-13 UNFCCC in Bali, (December 2007), it has established a BALI ROAD for 2012 and Post Kyoto Protocol.

- GoI established Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim (DNPI); National Board for Climate Change (Presidential Decree No.46/Th.2008), The President of RI as the Head, Vice of Head: Ministerial Coordination for Welfare Affairs, and 17 Ministries, and Meteorology and Climate Bureau as the members. The MOE appointed to be supervisor

- GoI has allocated about 2 thousand billion rupiah (+/- 256 billion Aus$) for improving mitigation capacity towards CC.

Figure 1.The global carbon cycle.

Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) http://www.unep.org/