CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These...
-
Upload
lorena-myrtle-bridges -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
description
Transcript of CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These...
![Page 1: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CBRFCApril 2011 mid-month
Peak Flow Forecast Webinar
11am, April 27, 2011
Kevin Werner
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
![Page 2: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Recent and Upcoming Weather Review
• Snow States• Peak Flow
Forecasts
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.1.2011.html
![Page 3: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
![Page 4: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PrecipitationApril 6-20
Web Reference: http://water.weather.gov/precip
![Page 5: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
PrecipitationApril 20-27
![Page 6: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked
Snow
April 7 April 20 April 27
![Page 7: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
April 7 April 20April 27
![Page 8: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
71 sites showing highest value for today
![Page 9: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 1150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Number of SNOTELs with daily record SWE values
229 sites with 10+ years of record; 71/229 or 31% of sites with daily record
![Page 10: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Sites below ~8500’starting to melt
8000’
7500’
8400’
![Page 11: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sites above 8000’Still accumulating snow
8200’
9600’
8400’
![Page 12: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)
![Page 13: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above Cameo)
![Page 14: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Gunnison Basin
![Page 15: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:San Juan Basin
![Page 16: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County
![Page 17: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Snow Maps
Web Reference: http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov
![Page 18: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Forecast Precipitation
Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.gov
• Next storm: Friday/Saturday• Weak storm possible middle of
next week• Spring to follow??
![Page 19: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Soil Moisture
![Page 20: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What is a Peak Flow Forecast?• Snowmelt Mean Daily Maximum Flow (April-July)
• Probabilistic Forecasts Exceedence Probabilities -10%,25%,50%, 75%, 90%
• Issued (at least) monthly from March-June (this year weekly starting April 19)
• ~60 forecast points – some unregulated, some regulated• Updated as needed• Forecast Users include:
• Emergency Managers• USGS hydrologists• Water Managers• River Recreation
20
![Page 21: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Spring Weather Really Matters
• Runoff characteristics are largely determined by the day-to-day spring weather. – While large snow pack years increase chances for
flooding, it is not an inevitability– Small snow pack years (like last year) can flood
with the right sequence of spring temperatures
![Page 22: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
April 26 Peak Flow Forecasts
April 19 Forecasts April 26 Forecasts
![Page 23: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Peak
Flo
w P
ublic
ation
![Page 34: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked
April 1, 2011Water Supply Forecasts
Highlights:• Wet winter
continues for much of the basin with many forecasts higher than any year since 1997
• Some northern basins predicting flows near the top 10%
• Most northern basins higher than Mar 1
• San Juan and lower basin somewhat lower since Feb 1 and again Mar 1
![Page 35: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Spring Flooding Probable in northern Utah and northwestern Colorado rivers
Chances continue to increase without a prolonged warm period to melt snow in early to mid May
Expect some problems on rivers even below flood stages
![Page 36: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Peak Flow Forecasts• Forecast updates planned for:
– 4/5, 4/19, 4/26 (done), 5/5, 5/10, 5/17, 5/24• Webinars: 4/20,4/27,5/11• “beta” website developments:
– SNOTEL percentiles– Simplified peak flow chart– Publication referencing forecasts above historic peaks– New peak flow forecast points added
• In progress: instantaneous peaks (vs mean daily)• Discussion:
– Anything else you need??
![Page 37: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
CBRFC News• Basin Focal Points (Available to discuss
forecasts: 801.524.5130)– Upper Colorado: Brenda Alcorn– Green: Ashley Nielson– San Juan / Gunnison: Tracy Cox– Great Basin: Brent Bernard– Lower Colorado (below Lake Powell): Greg
Smith
• Upcoming:– Weekly ESP model guidance– Email product updates via govdelivery (can
add more products / webpages upon request)
– Changes to CBRFC webpage: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmap3.php
– Blog (blog.citizen.apps.gov/cbrfc)
![Page 38: CBRFC April 2011 mid-month Peak Flow Forecast Webinar 11am, April 27, 2011 Kevin Werner These slides: .](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062905/5a4d1adf7f8b9ab059976977/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Kevin Werner
CBRFC Service Coordination HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130
Email: [email protected]
Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….