CBRE Kyiv Office MarketView H1 2013 eng · 2018-06-25 · Prime $35-40 $24-29 3.7% Ph kPechersk...

RESEARCH REPOKyiv Officewww.cbre.ua

HOT TOPICS

•Increase in leasing activity: take-up has

FUNDAMENTALS

Protracted recession in theaccess to global capital masubdued over H1 2013 Reactivity: take up has

more than doubled vs. H1 2012

•Expanding stock: around 100,000 sq m of new premises (+33% y-o-y) has been delivered to the

subdued over H1 2013. Rein Q1 2013, which, howeUkraine is feeling the impindustrial production contioutput y-o-y. The agricultperiod (+5.1% y-o-y). Althengines of economic growconsumer demand appea

l th thhas been delivered to the speculative market

•Growing vacancy: average vacancy has increased to 27.1% (+2.1 pp from Q4 2012)

th b k f

real wage growth over thesame period in 2012). Re1.5%1 amid persistent gloeconomy is projected to pforecasts for Ukrainian GD

Weak economic performmethodology, the rate of jin Q1 2013 According toon the back of new

supply and moderate net absorption

•Relative stability of rents: indicative prime rent remained flat at $33 per

in Q1 2013. According tocompanies revealed theirnext 12 months, 5.9 pp lestaff reductions decreasecompanies seeing no chaover H1 2013.

KYIV CORPORATE HIRINGsq m/month (triple net), after declining by around 6% in late 2012

KYIV CORPORATE HIRING

3035404550

%

05

10152025

Q2

2006

Q3

2006

Q4

2006

Q1

2007

Q2

2007

Q3

2007

Q4

2007

Q1

2008

1 - based on the latest forecast from the following of Uk i T ik Di l G ld S h N ti

Source: National Bank of Ukraine

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

of Ukraine, Troika Dialog, Goldman Sachs, Nationa

ORT

H1 2013

e EU (and therefore weak external demand) and limitedarkets ensured that economic growth in Ukraine remainedeal GDP managed to post only a tiny 0 6% q o q increaseeal GDP managed to post only a tiny 0.6% q-o-q increaseever, translated into a 1.1% decline in annual terms. Aspact of adverse of conditions in its major export markets,inued to contract over January-May, having lost 5.2% intural sector demonstrated healthy growth for the samehough domestic consumption served as one of the main

wth, evidenced by 7.9% y-o-y expansion of retail turnover,ars to be losing momentum owing to the deceleration in

fi t 5 th f th (+9 8% +15 5%e first 5 months of the year (+9.8% y-o-y vs. +15.5% overal GDP forecasts for 2013 were downgraded to just 0%-obal economic instability. At the same time, Ukrainian

pick up speed in 2014, as global markets recover. LatestDP growth in 2014 vary in the range of 3% – 4%.

ance resulted in rising unemployment. Based on ILOoblessness has increased from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 8.6%the latest survey of business hiring expectations 18 0% ofthe latest survey of business hiring expectations, 18.0% ofplans to increase the number of employees during the

ess than over H1 2012. The share of enterprises planninged to 16.9% (-1.5 pp), whereas the percentage ofnge in their staff number increased to 65.1% (+7.4 pp)

G EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHSG EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

Increase Decrease

Q2

2008

Q3

2008

Q4

2008

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

organizations: EBRD, Oxford Economics, Cabinet of Ministries of Ukraine, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade l B k f Uk i

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

© 2013, Expandia LLC

l Bank of Ukraine

RESEARCH REPORT KYIV OFFICE H1 2013

DEMAND

In contrast to the previous year, 2013 was off to agood start as far as office occupier market isg pconcerned. Take-up (leasing and sale transactions)has rebounded strongly, exceeding the results of thewhole of 2012 in just the first few months of the year.However, demand was mostly driven by relocationsand consolidations, rather than net expansions, whichindicates that market conditions continue to bechallenging. CBRE estimates that take-up equaledapprox. 85,000 sq m in H1 2013, which is more thantwice the figure of H1 2012.

As for the occupiers’ preference, most transactionsexceeding 1,000 sq m in size were signed in newbuildings delivered during the last three years, offeringreasonable combination of price and quality. In by-the-industry analysis IT & High Tech andindustry analysis, IT & High Tech andTelecommunications continued to dominate themarket, including an owner-occupier acquisition of7,500 sq m in Class B Premium Center located outsideof CBD. That transaction became the largest for theyear so far.

SUPPLY

As a result of several large completions, the officemarket is witnessing a steady growth of new qualitysupply for the third consecutive year. Four new officeschemes totaling approx. 100,000 sq m (+33% y-o-y)were delivered on the market during the first six monthsof 2013, thereby taking total competitive stock to

d 1 48 l Addi i l 72 600 faround 1.48 mln sq m. Additional 72,600 sq m of newpremises may enter the market before the end of 2013,should all properties in the pipeline be delivered asplanned. As a result, annual growth in new supply in2013 may achieve 15%. As before, most of new officespace will be concentrated on the West (Right) Bank,while the East (Left) Bank continues to experience lowl l f f i l l ti I f t thlevels of new professional completions. In fact, therewas only one scheme delivered in Q2 2013 in that partof the city: 28,500 sq m of Class A quality officepremises in Silver Breeze mixed-use scheme.

VACANCY AND RENTAL RATES

In the first part of 2013, the overall vacancy dynamics

22

remained negative, as market continued to experiencegrowth in the volume of unoccupied premises.Transactional activity driven mostly by relocations andconsolidations (vs. expansions) coupled with anincrease in the new supply of modern office stock,pushed vacancy rate up to 27.1% (+2.1 pp vs. Q42012). Additional development completions combinedwith low rate of occupational growth and marketentries appear to place further upward pressure on thevacancy level for the remainder of 2013.

KEY OFFICE LEASE TRANSACTIONS IN H1 2013

OCCUPIER INDUSTRY PROPERTY SUBMARKET GLA*, sq m

Ciklum IT & High Tech Gulliver Olimpijskyi 7,000g p j y ,

DTEKManufacturing, Industrial& Energy

101 Tower South-West 5,400

Ukrrechflot Transport and Logistics Rialto North 2,400

EPAM Systems IT & High Tech Eurasia Olimpijskyi 2,300

Parimatch IT & High TechOB at 14a, BazhanaSt.

NC-SE 2,100

Glaxo SmithKline Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals

Silver Breeze NC-SE 2,000

*- gross leasable area

Note: submarkets defined according to the new central business district (CBD) delineation introduced by CBRE in September 2011Prime, Pechersk, Podil, Olimpijskyi, Shevchenkivskyi – CBD; South, South West, West, North – CBD fringe; NC-SW – non-central location, south

( h b k) NC NW l l h ( h b k) NC NE l l h (l f b k) NC SE

German Embassy Public Sector 101 Tower South-West 1,800

Boehringer Ingelheim

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals

101 Tower South-West 1,400

Yves Rocher Wholesale & Retail TradeOB at 33, Sagaidachnogo St.

Podil 1,000

west (right bank), NC-NW – non-central location, north west (right bank), NC-NE – non-central location, north east (left bank), NC-SE – non-central location, south east (left bank)Source: CBRE

NEW SUPPLY IN 2013 (MAJOR SCHEMES)*

NAME CLASS SUBMARKET DEVELOPER GLA, sq m DELIVERY

Senator (Maria) AA Pechersk K.A.N. Development

45,000 H1 2013

BC t 28A M k k iBC at 28A Moskovskyi Ave.

AB North Local developer 20,000 H1 2013

Silver Breeze BC NC-NE Svitland Ukraine 28,500 H1 2013

BC at 52B B. Khmelnytskogo St.

BA Prime Vector 5,100 H1 2013

BC at 69 Frunze St. (Phase I)

BB North UBK 3,000 H2 2013

BC at 98 AA Olimpijskyi

VS EnergyInternational 7 500 H2 2013

KEY WAREHOUSE SCHEMES IN 2013

* according to developers’ announcementsSource: CBRE

Chervonoarmijska St. AA Olimpijskyi International

Ukraine7,500 H2 2013

BC at 36 Shorsa St. BB South Zhytlobud 24,800 H2 2013

Merx Center 2 AB South Merx Group 21,800 H2 2013

Forum Victoria Park (Phase II,III)

BC NC-SW Forum Management Group

15,500 H2 2013

KYIV ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS AND TOTAL COMPETITIVE STOCK (‘000 SQ M)

1 800

'000 sq m

Stock at the beginning of the year Annual Supply

0200400600800

1 0001 2001 4001 6001 800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

013F


2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20

F – forecast Source: CBRE


NEW SUPPLY, NET ABSORPTION AND VACANCY RATE

Completions (lhs)

15%

20%

25%

30%

100

150

200

250

300

'000 sq m

Completions (lhs)Net absorption (lhs)Vacancy (rhs)

lhs – left hand siderhs – right hand side

0%

5%

10%

-100

-50

0

50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

F

s g sF – forecastSource: CBRE

KYIV OFFICE BASE RENTAL RANGE AND VACANCY, BY LOCATION AS OF Q2 2013

Class A location Quality A Quality B Vacancy

Prime $35-40 $24-29 3.7%P h k $35 40 $24 29 39 9%Pechersk $35-40 $24-29 39.9%

Podil $28-32 $23-25 8.6%

Shevchenkivskyi - $22-26 20.1%

Olimpijskyi $25-33 $18-25 28.7%

Class B location Quality A Quality B Vacancy

CBD fringe $23-30 $12-20 12.4%

Class C location Quality A Quality B VacancyClass C location Quality A Quality B Vacancy

Non-central area - $12-15 29.1%

KYIV OFFICE SUBMARKETS

Source: CBRE

33

Source: CBRESource: CBRE

In terms of geographical distribution, total CBDvacancy continued its upward trend and is currentlystanding at 24 8% as of the end of Q2 2013 comparedstanding at 24.8% as of the end of Q2 2013 comparedto 16.1% six months ago. The sharpest increase invacancy was recorded in the most unsaturated Pechersksubmarket due to the delivery of Senator (Maria)business center (45,000 sq m GLA). As a result, by theend of Q2 the vacancy rate in this area reached newhighs of around 40%. Podil and Shevchenkivskyisubmarkets also saw a jump in vacancy; howeversubmarkets also saw a jump in vacancy; however,unlike in Pechersk, this increase was owing to therelease of existed space by occupiers, not bycompletion of new speculative office schemes. On amore positive note, office premises were in demandwithin Prime and Olimpijskyi submarkets, which led toa decline in the vacancy rate there by 4.8 pp and 12pp from Q4 2012 respectively Similarly CBD fringepp from Q4 2012, respectively. Similarly, CBD fringeand non-central areas have enjoyed some decline inthe vacancy rates due to gradual absorption of low costoffice space.

Geographical spread of vacant premises thereforeindicates that at the current moment only Prime andPodil submarkets within the CBD are enjoying vacancyrates of less than 10% (market equilibrium). At thesame time, occupiers were highly focused on the areawithin the CBD fringe and started to show some interestin non-central areas, all of which signifies thatcompanies have become more cost conscious anddemand is now driven to a large degree by cost-savingpractices.

The office market has not witnessed significant changesin rents during the first six months of 2013. Indicativeprime rent remained flat at $33 per sq m/month (triplenet). Asking rental rates continue to vary from $25 to$40 per sq m/month for Class A space and from $12to $29 per sq m/month for class B properties in CBD,depending on location and building occupancydepending on location and building occupancy.However, with growing market competitiveness, the gapbetween nominal and effective rents is continuing towiden. As of the end of Q2, the average differenceamounts to approx. 25-30%.

YIELDS

Th i t t t ti l t dThere were no investment transactions completed onthe office market during the analyzed period, withprimarily opportunistic investors continuing to wait outfor bargain deals in prime properties.



As a result, estimated notional prime yield remainedstable at approx. 13% over H1 2013. With pooreconomic performance and finance resourcesremaining virtually inaccessible, yields for office sectorare expected to stay at the current level in the nearterm future.

OUTLOOK

Subdued economic environment and high vacancy ratehighlight that no notable improvements should beg g pexpected on the Kyiv office market by the end of 2013,other than further increase of modern office stockthanks to the delivery of new speculative schemes.

KYIV BUSINESS CENTERSKYIV BUSINESS CENTERS

44

Source: CBRE

Large amount of available space will continue to fuelcompetition among business centers, which is bound toexert further pressure on rental rates.exert further pressure on rental rates.

However, the outlook for 2014 is more positive in linewith widely expected return to the general economicrecovery. The anticipated improvements in economicconditions in 2014 should strengthen businessconfidence in Ukraine which, in turn, is likely totranslate into occupiers’ expansion plans and then on

h i d d f ffi H kito growth in demand for office space. However, takinginto consideration the fact that business growthgenerally follows sustainable signs of economicrecovery, significant positive dynamics on the officemarket may not be apparent until 2015.



Key Existing O# NAME1 Makulan 9/2 V.Vasylkivska S

2 Europa 4 Muzeinyi lane

3 Horizon Office Towers 42-44 Shovkovychn

4 Artem 4 Glubochytska St.

5 Khreschatyk Plaza 19A Khreschatyk St.

6 Merx Center 1 15 Leiptsygska St.p g

7 Podil Plaza 30 Spaska St.

8 Silver Center 4 I.Lepse blvd.

9 Forum Business City 13 Pymonenka St.

10 Forum Satelite 4 Geroiv Kosmosa S

11 Cubic Center 3 Sholudenka St.

12 Panorama 20 V Zhytomyrska S12 Panorama 20 V. Zhytomyrska S

13 Poligrafist 33 Vorovskoho St.

14 Aquamarin 29 Zhylyanska St.

15 Stend 14 Vasylkivska St.

16 Olympiyskyi 72 V.Vasylkivska St

17 Igorivskyi 13/5 Igorivska St.

18 Forum Park Plaza 9 Moskovskyi ave.

19 Irva (Phase I,II) 10/14 Radischeva S

20 Illinskyi (Phase I,II,III) 8 Illinska St.

21 Botanic Towers 119-121 Saksahan

22 FIM Center 1 17 Liniyna St.

23 Olimp 3 Sportyvna Sq.

24 Fermmash 62 Dehtyarivska St.

25 Meganom 1 Dniprovskyi uzviz

26 Capital 77A V.Vasylkivska S

27 Europa Plaza (Phase I,II) 120 Saksahanskoho

28 Horizon Park 1 4B Grynchenka St.

29 Komod 4 Lunacharskoho St29 Komod 4 Lunacharskoho St

30 Renaissance 24 Vorovskogo St.

31 Leonardo (Phase I) 17/52 Khmelnytsko

32 Senator 101 Volodymyrska S

33 Seven Hills 49A Volodymyrska S

34 Parus 2 Mechnykova St.

55

35 Eurasia 73-79 Zhylyanska S

36 BC at Fizkultury St. 28 Fizkultury St.

37 Farenheit 30 Fizkultury St.

38 Staryi Grad 6 Rylskoho lane

39 Palladium 172 Antonovycha St

40 Leonardo (Phase II) 19-21A B. Khmeln

41 Watergate 8B Okipnoy R. St.

Source: CBRE

Office SchemesADDRESS GLA, sq m COMPLETION

St. 8,000 1993

5,600 1995

na St. 12,000 1998

10,200 1998

. 6,500 1999

5,100 1999

19,800 2000

6,500 2001

28,000 2002

St. 12,000 2003

11,600 2003

St 8 900 2003St. 8,900 2003

8,000 2003

5,300 2003

11,500 2004

t. 7,000 2004

6,700 2004

27,200 2005

St. 26,000 2005-2009

25,500 2005-2008

skoho St. 7,000 2005

6,500 2005

6,500 2005

5,700 2005

5,500 2005

St. 3,800 2005

o St. 26,700 2006-2007

16,000 2006

t 15 000 2006t. 15,000 2006

14,500 2006

ogo B. St. 11,300 2006

St. 6,000 2006

St. 6,000 2006

52,700 2007

St. 23,400 2007

11,700 2007

10,000 2007

5,200 2007

t. 20,000 2008

ytskogo St. 15,200 2008


11,000 2008


Key Existing O# NAME42 Mikom Palace 27 Dehtyarivska St.

43 Prime 48, 50A Zhylyanska

44 Vremena Goda 16 Kudryashova St.

45 Podil Kyiv 25B Sahaidachnoho

46 Capital Hall 31-33 Zhylyanska S

47 Horizon Park 2 (Phase I,II) 12A Amosova St. ( )

48 Protasov Business Park 2/1 Hrynchenka St.

49 Vector 10G Starokyivska S

50 Forum Kinetic 12 Kurenivskyi lane

51 Flora Park 8 Tankova St.

52 FIM Center 2 1 Magnitogorska St.

53 Prague 6 Sosyury St53 Prague 6 Sosyury St.

54 Livoberezhnyi 2A M. Raskovoi St.

55 Horizon Podil (Phase I) 9 N.Khreschatytska

56 Eleven 11 Solominska St.

57 Lucky.net Telecom Office 13A Moskovskyi av

58 Premium Business Center 6Z I.Lepse blvd.

59 Rialto 18 Novokonstantyni

60 BC at Kozatska St. 120/4 Kozatska St.

61 Pankivskyi 70/16B Saksahansk

62 101 Tower 57 L'va Tolstogo St.

63 BC at Druzhby Narodiv 19 Dryzhby Narodiv

64 Toronto-Kyiv 79 Antonovycha St64 Toronto Kyiv 79 Antonovycha St.

65 Kanyon 56A Yaroslavskaya S

66 Forum Victoria Park (Phase I) 7A Akhtyrskyi lane

67 Domosfera 101 Stolychne shose

68 Krystal 175-177 Kharkivske

69 Gulliver (Esplanada/Continental) 1 Sportyvna Sq.

70 Eleven 2 11 Solomenska St.

71 Senator (Mariya) 2/32-34 Moskovska

72 BC at Moskovskyi Ave. 28A Moskovskyi Ave

73 Silver Breeze Serafimovycha/Tych

74 BC at B. Khmelnytskogo 52B B. Khmelnytsko

Key Future Of

66

Key Future Of# NAME1 BC at Krasnoarmijska St. 98 Krasnoarmijska S

2 BC at Schorsa St. 36 Schorsa St.

3 Merx Center 2 15A Leiptsigska St.

4 Forum Victoria Park (Phase II, III) 7A Akhtyrskyi lane

5 BC at Frunze (Phase I) 69 Frunze St5 BC at Frunze (Phase I) 69 Frunze St.Source: CBRE

Office SchemesADDRESS GLA, sq m COMPLETION

10,900 2008

St. 8,400 2008

7,100 2008

o St. 6,000 2008

St. 5,000 2008

30,400 2009-2010

21,300 2009

St. 9,600 2009

9,000 2009

8,300 2009

. 7,400 2009

7 000 20097,000 2009

5,700 2009

St. 1,200 2009

8,000 2010

e. 5,500 2010

38,000 2011

ivska St. 15,200 2011

7,000 2011

koho St. 9,600 2011

46,000 2011

Blvd. 7,000 2011

32 500 201232,500 2012

St. 5,500 2012

7,200 2012

e 17,100 2012

e highway 9,000 2012

47,200 2012

3,900 2012

aya St. 45,000 H1 2013

e. 20,000 H1 2013

yny St. 28,500 H1 2013

ogo St. 5,120 H1 2013

ffice Schemesffice SchemesADDRESS GLA, sq m COMPLETION

St. 7,500 H2 2013

24,800 H2 2013

21,800 H2 2013

15,500 H2 2013

3 000 H2 2013


3,000 H2 2013

RESEARCH REPOKyiv Officewww.cbre.ua

DEFINITIONS (in alphabetical order)

CBD – central business district

Leasing Activity – represents the total floor space known to have beth i d U lik t k ( d fi iti b l ) it i l dthe survey period. Unlike take-up (see definition below) it includes s

Net Absorption (occupancy growth) – represents the change in occu

Prime Rent – represents the top open-market tier of rent that couldhighest quality and specification and in the best location in a matransactions are being completed in the market at the time but needis very limited or made up of unusual one-off transactions. If thefigure is more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conapply. For offices, the prime rent should represent the typical “achpp y p p ypbe expected to pay for:

• an office unit of standard size commensurate with demand in

• an office unit of highest quality and specification within the loc

• an office unit within the prime location (CBD, for example) of a

Take-up (gross absorption) – represents the total floor space knowoccupiers during the survey period. A property is deemed to be takPre-let refers to take-up that was signed either in the planning or coPre-let refers to take-up that was signed either in the planning or corecorded in the period that they were signed. Exclusions include schange in occupation), contract renewals (unless the occupier took

Total Competitive Stock – represents the total completed space (occgross leasable area. Includes purpose-built, space converted frodevelopment. Total Competitive Stock excludes any buildings thatExclusions include; government and public buildings, where the pusector does not engage in the open market; singly occupied proagreement; properties that are not considered to be actively compe

CONTACTS

agreement; properties that are not considered to be actively compe

Vacant Space – represents the total gross lettable (or rentable) floactively marketed at the survey date. Space that is physically vacantfrom vacancy. Space that is under construction is also excluded from

Vacant Space Rate – represents the percentage ratio of total vacant

For more information regarding the Market Review, please c

CBRE | Ukraine

Expandia LLC

4 M. Hrinchenka St.,

Kyiv 03680

t +38 044 390 00 00

Sergiy Sergiyenko

Managing Partner

7DISCLAIMER 2013 CBRE

Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Whwarranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently cestimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or futurExpandia LLC| Part of the CBRE affiliate network clients and cannot be reprod

t: +38-044-390-00-00

e: [email protected]

Managing Partner


Expandia LLC| Part of the CBRE affiliate network clients, and cannot be reprodnetwork .

© Copyright 2013 Expandia LLC| Part of the CBRE affiliate network

ORT

H1 2013

een let or pre-let, sold or pre-sold to tenants or owner-occupiers duringl d l b k l ll blales and leasebacks, renewals, regears, as well as subleases.

upied stock within a market during the survey period

be expected for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, ofrket at the survey date. Prime Rent reflects the level at which relevantd not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if transaction flow

ere are no relevant transactions during the survey period, the quotednditions, but the same criteria on building size and specification will stillievable” open market headline rent which a blue chip occupier wouldp p p

each location, typically 500 sq m

cal market

a market

wn to have been let or pre-let, sold or pre-sold to tenants or owner-ken-up only when contracts are signed or a binding agreement exists.onstruction stage All transactions (including pre-lets and pre-sales) areonstruction stage. All transactions (including pre-lets and pre-sales) arespace that is under offer, sales and leasebacks (as there has been noadditional space, when only the additional space is included).

cupied and vacant) in the private sector at the survey date, recorded asom other uses and independent space forming part of a mixed-uset are not considered to be ‘competitive’ or active in the marketplace.ublic sector space is purpose built and owner occupied and the publicperties, occupied by a tenant as the owner or on a long-term lease

etitive due to a size threshold, age, use or class.etitive due to a size threshold, age, use or class.

oor space in existing properties, which is physically vacant and beingt, but not being marketed or is not available for occupation is excludedm vacant space.

t space to competitive stock

ontact:

Radomyr Tsurkan

Managing Partner

Maryna Gavrylenko

Head of Research

hile we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee,confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions orre performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use byduced without prior written permission of Expandia LLC| Part of the CBRE affiliate

Managing Partner


Head of Research



duced without prior written permission of Expandia LLC| Part of the CBRE affiliate

CBRE Kyiv Office MarketView H1 2013 eng · 2018-06-25 · Prime $35-40 $24-29 3.7% Ph kPechersk...

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