CBRE Cap Rate Survey August 2011
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Transcript of CBRE Cap Rate Survey August 2011
CBRE Cap Rate SuRvey
Click to Enter
A CBRE Publication August 2011
In This Issue:
Overview pg 2
Office pg 5
Multihousing pg 12
Retail pg 16
Industrial pg 20
Hotels pg 24
Appendix pg 28
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
2
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
u.S. commercial real estate markets have been in recovery for well over a year now. Low interest rates and mounting global liquidity have attracted
a disproportionate share of institutional capital flows to u.S. real estate. according to Real Capital analytics (RCa), transaction volume surged
during the first half of 2011 with property sales totaling $90.6 billion. Strong institutional demand for office and multihousing assets has accounted
for much of the sales activity. CBD office, in particular, has been a prime target of cross-border investors. Demand for multihousing has also been
supported by a robust recovery in underlying fundamentals and the availability of still favorable financing by the GSes. More recently, a rising
volume of large retail portfolio sales have been noted during the second quarter as investors become relatively bullish on retailers longer term.
Despite the recent volatility in the broader equity and fixed income markets resulting from the downgrade of the u.S. from aaa to aa+, commercial
real estate should continue to attract institutional capital given real estate’s critical role in a well-diversified multi-asset portfolio. private equity real
estate returns as measured by the NCReIF property Index (NpI) have also outpaced other traditional and alternative asset classes. NpI annualized
returns through the second quarter of 2011 totaled 16.7%, better than returns for stocks and bonds during the same period.
Greater risk aversion resulting from the softening economic growth and increased market gyrations, however, should direct a greater share of
capital to less risky, core real estate. the highest quality assets with credit tenants and staggered, longer-term leases, located in the primary markets
will be favored targets. In this uncertain environment, investors have a greater appetite for core real estate assets that provide much more stable
yields. Due to investor appetite for such assets, our expectation is that transaction volume should approach an estimated $200 billion this year.
this is comparable to levels seen back in 2004 and almost double the levels seen in each of the past three years.
In light of continued investor demand for higher-quality properties, pricing for core assets in primary markets continues to rise. this trend is reflected
in the upward movement of the average cap rates as reported by RCa. In this edition of CBRe’s Cap Rate Survey, an overwhelming number of
experts in the field also report continued downward pressure on cap rates across the main property sectors including: CBD office, suburban office,
retail, industrial, apartments and hotels. Gateway markets continue to achieve rich pricing relative to second-tier markets. Rising values have also
encouraged investors to list more properties for sale. the volume of new offerings jumped significantly in the second quarter of 2011 according
to RCa.
United States Overview
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
3
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
the one risk facing commercial real estate capital markets is the trajectory of the u.S. economy and financial markets. the uS faces multiple
challenges including a tepid economic recovery, a rising sovereign debt burden and policy gridlock in Washington. this led Standard & poor’s to
downgrade u.S. sovereign credit from aaa to aa+. the downgrade centered on two factors:
• Anemiceconomicgrowth:TheU.S.economygrewataslow0.9%annualizedrateduringthefirsthalfof2011.Expectationsforastronger
reboundinthesecondhalfhavebeenadjusteddownward.Economicgrowthshouldaveragecloserto3%inthesecondhalfofthisyear
incomparisonto3.5%anticipatedearlieron.Inordertoalleviategrowingdeficitanddebtproblems,theU.S.needsamuchstronger
economicreboundthancurrentlyrealized.
• UnsustainableDebtTrajectory:PublicdebtasashareofGDPhasacceleratedmassively,risingfromaround50%priortothe2008-2009
recessiontoover80%duringthefirstquarterofthisyear.Weakeconomicgrowthandtheinabilityforpolicymakerstomakethehard
decisionsnecessarytotacklethedebtledS&PtodowngradeU.S.longer-termtreasurybonds.
the initial impact of this downgrade has been to increase demand for safe-haven assets as investors unwound their risk positions. Ironically, this has
led to greater demand for u.S. treasuries, driving yields of the 10 year note to below 2.5%. Spreads have increased for all risk-assets, including
commercial real estate. But the all-in cost of capital has not changed materially given the decline in benchmark yields. Both debt and equity capital
are available for real estate given the role that commercial real estate plays in a well-diversified multi-asset portfolio. the lower value of the u.S.
dollar is also encouraging cross-border capital flows to the u.S.
economic and financial market volatility, however, will impact business and consumer confidence. this may delay new consumption and business
spending, weighing in on economic growth in the near-term. Our expectation, however, is that the u.S. economy will avoid another recession
and continue to expand, averaging 2.5% this year and by another 2.5% in 2012. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative with the Fed
anticipating holding interest at zero through the first half of 2013. Corporate earnings are also a bright spot during the current economic malaise.
Corporations have reportedly $2 trillion of cash sitting on their balance sheets. as uncertainty subsides, we expect businesses to begin hiring and
spending on much needed upgraded equipment.
the projected economic recovery should continue to support improvements in real estate market fundamentals. all sectors, with the exception of
retail, report falling vacancy rates. During the second quarter, office vacancy rates fell to 16.2%. Both CBD and Suburban office markets improved.
United States Overview (continued)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
4
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
the office sector continues to enjoy strong transaction volume, with much of the focus on Washington DC and Manhattan which accounted for more
than half of the sales. For the first half of 2011, the volume of office transactions totaled just under $25 billion, up 77% year over year.
Similar to the office sector, industrial availability continued to decline in the second quarter of 2011. Large regional distribution centers and tech
hubs improved the most, including Riverside, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, and San Jose. the recent recovery in the manufacturing ISM survey is
also reflected across the nation’s manufacturing markets. Detroit in particular is benefiting from the resurgence in the auto manufacturing activity.
During the first half of 2011, much of the new industrial sales were concentrated in warehouse/distribution centers as compared to flex. RCa reports
that multiple trades of large distribution centers at major hubs such as Los angeles and Chicago have started to take place at sub-6.0% yields, rare
so far during this tepid recovery. Our survey of stabilized industrial cap rates also report the same trend with some instances of cap rates below 5%
in the best markets for the best industrial product.
Retail has been the only property sector to report deteriorating fundamentals. During the second quarter of 2011, retail availability rates rose to
13.3%, marking the second quarterly rise. uncertainty regarding consumer activity has led to retailers cutting back on space requirements. the
demand recovery for neighborhood, community and strip centers has stalled. Retail transactions started to gain momentum only in the last quarter.
according to RCa, sales volume ratcheted up to $17 billion. More strip centers reportedly changed hands last quarter than all of 2010. the
Blackstone/Centro deal accounted for a large part of the upsurge in quarterly activity. Investor interest in retail properties continues to drive down
cap rates despite softening market conditions.
Multihousing has enjoyed the healthiest fundamentals as compared to the other property sectors. Data through the second quarter of 2011 indicate
that u.S. apartment demand continues to rise with vacancy rates at 5.4%, very near market equilibrium rates. Landlords are achieving rent growth
momentum and concessions continue to burn away. Sales of garden apartments surged during the first half of 2011 as investors allocated a large
portion of their real estate portfolio to multihousing assets. Improving fundamentals and strong underlying net operating income from such assets
continues to draw yield-hungry investor to this property type.
hotel transaction activity has grown quickly in 2011. Compared to the pace of activity seen in the first half of 2010, sales volume was up nearly
150% in the first half of 2011. Cap rates for stabilized assets have been the lowest in markets like New york, Boston, San Francisco and Seattle
where cap rates have dipped below 6% for the luxury segment.
United States Overview (continued)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
5
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office | Overview
Thepaceofofficeinvestmentactivityinthefirsthalfof2011isjustover90%greaterthanthepacesetinthefirsthalfof2010.Partofthisgrowthissimplyafunctionofasmallnumbergrowingquicklywithdealactivityat$13billioninthefirsthalfof2010accordingtofiguresfromRealCapitalAnalytics.Withtransactionactivityjustunder$25billiondealactivityinthefirsttwoquartersofthisyearexceedsthean-nualactivityseeninthemarketin2009.
TheCBRECapRateSurveyhighlightsasignificantdisparityininvestordemandforofficeassetsacrossdifferenttypesofmarkets.Thereisa450basispointspreadbetweenthelowestandhighestcapratesforstabilizedClassAofficeassetsinCBDsubmarketsandroughlya340basispointspreadforassetsinSuburbansubmarkets.ThelowestcapratesareseenforassetsinmajorgatewaymarketswhereinvestoractivityisquitestrongwhileassetsinstrugglingindustrialcitiesoftheMidwestdonotseethesameinterest.
Select from the list below to access the current CBD office cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete Office CBD Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete Office CBD Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
Select from the list below to access the current suburban office cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete Office suburban Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete Office suburban Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
6
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office CBD | eastern Region
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAtlanta
Baltimore
Boston
Charlotte
Jacksonville
Miami
nashville
new York City
Orlando
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Raleigh
Tampa
Washington, DC
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Atlanta 6.90% - 7.10%
↓
8.50%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
Baltimore 6.25% - 6.75%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
Boston 4.50% - 5.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
Charlotte 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
I
10.00% - 10.50%
I
Jacksonville 7.25% - 7.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.25%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
12.00% - 13.00% ↓ 12.00% - 13.00%
↓
Miami 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.50%
I
8.00% - 9.50%
I
8.25% - 9.50%
I
10.00% - 12.00% ↓
nashville 7.75% - 8.25% I 8.25% - 8.50%
↓
8.75% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
I
9.50% - 9.75%
↓
10.00%
I
new York City 5.00% - 5.50%
↓
5.00% - 6.00%
↓
5.50% - 6.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
I
N/a N/a N/a N/a
Orlando 6.75% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 7.75%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.75% - 9.25%
↓
Philadelphia 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.25% - 9.75%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
Pittsburgh 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.25% - 8.75% ↓ 9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
I
11.00% - 12.00%
↓
Raleigh 7.00% - 8.50%
↓
7.75% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 11.00%
I
8.75% - 9.75%
↓
Tampa 6.75% - 7.75%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
I
8.25% - 9.25% I 9.00% - 10.00%
I
9.50% - 10.50%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
IWashington, DC 4.75% - 5.50%
↓
4.75% - 5.50%↓
5.50% - 6.00%↓
6.25% - 6.75%↓
5.50% - 6.00%↓
6.00% - 6.75%↓
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
7
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office CBD | Central Region
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Austin 5.75% - 7.75%
↓
6.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.50%
↓
7.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
Chicago 6.25% - 6.50%
I
6.50% - 6.75%
I
7.00% - 7.25%
↓
7.25% - 7.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.50% - 11.50%
I
Cincinnati 8.25% - 9.25%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
11.00% - 13.00%
↓
Cleveland 8.75% - 9.00% N/a 9.25% - 9.50% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a 10.50% - 11.00% N/a 11.00% N/a 11.00% - 12.00% N/a
Columbus 8.00% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
I
10.75% - 11.50%
I
11.00% - 12.00%
↓
11.75% - 12.50%
I
Dallas 8.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
12.00% - 14.00% ↓
Detroit 8.50% - 10.00%
I
9.00% - 11.00%
I
9.00% - 12.00%
I
10.00% - 14.00% ↓ 10.00% - 13.00%
I
12.00% - 15.00%
I
houston 6.00% - 7.00%
I
7.50%
I
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 8.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
11.50% - 12.00%
↓
Indianapolis 8.00% - 8.50%
↓
10.50% - 11.25% ↓ 9.75% - 10.25%
I
13.00% - 13.50% ↓ N/a N/a N/a N/a
Kansas City 8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00% ↓ 9.50% - 10.50% ↓ 10.00% - 11.00%
↓
12.00% - 14.00% ↓ 12.50% - 14.50% ↓
Minneapolis 6.75% - 7.50%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
I
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
I
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.00%
I
san Antonio 6.25% - 7.00%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.25% - 8.75%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.50%
↓
st. Louis 8.75% - 9.75%
↓
9.25% - 10.25%
↓
9.75% - 10.75%
↓
10.25% - 11.25%
↓
12.25% - 15.25% ↓ 15.25% - 20.00% ↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAustin
Chicago
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Dallas
Detroit
houston
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Minneapolis
san Antonio
st. Louis
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
8
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office CBD | Western Region
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Albuquerque N/a N/a N/a N/a 8.50% - 8.75%
↓
N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
Denver 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
7.00%
↓
7.00%
↓
8.25% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00%
↓
Las Vegas 6.00% - 7.00% N/a 7.00% - 8.00% N/a 6.50% - 7.50% N/a 7.50% - 8.50% N/a 8.00% - 10.00% N/a 9.00% - 12.00% N/a
Los Angeles 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
6.00% - 6.50%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 10.00%
I
Orange County 5.75% - 7.00%
↓
6.75% - 7.75%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
↓
7.75% - 8.75%
↓
8.50% - 9.25%
↓
9.00% - 10.25%
↓
Phoenix 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
Portland 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
I
7.50% - 10.00%
↓
sacramento 7.50% - 8.00%
I
9.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
salt Lake City 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.70%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.50% - 11.00% ↓ 10.00% - 13.00% ↓
san Diego 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
I
7.75% - 8.75%
I
san Francisco 5.25% - 6.50%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 10.00% ↓ 9.00% - 11.00% ↓
seattle 5.00% - 5.50%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAlbuquerqueDenverLas VegasLos AngelesOrange CountyPhoenixPortlandsacramentosalt Lake Citysan Diegosan Franciscoseattle
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
9
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office Suburban | eastern Region
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Atlanta 7.30% - 7.50%
↓
8.50%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
10.00 - 12.00%
↓
Baltimore 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
8.75% - 9.25%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.75% - 10.25%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
Boston 6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
Charlotte 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.75% - 9.25%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
Jacksonville 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
12.00% - 13.00% ↓ 12.00% - 13.00%
I
Miami 6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
↓
8.50% - 9.75%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
I
10.00% - 12.00%
I
nashville 7.50% - 7.75%
I
8.50% - 8.75% ↓ 9.00% - 9.50% ↓ 9.50% - 9.75% I 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
Orlando 7.25% - 7.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.25%
↓
8.50% - 8.75%
↓
8.75% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.25%
↓
9.25% - 9.50%
↓
Philadelphia 7.50% - 8.00%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
I
9.50% - 10.00%
I
10.00% - 10.50%
I
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.00%
I
Pittsburgh 7.50% - 8.00% ↓ 8.00% - 8.50%
I
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.00%
↓
Raleigh 7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.25%
↓
8.50% - 12.00% I 9.00% - 10.00%
↓
Tampa 7.00% - 8.00%
I
8.00% - 9.00%
I
8.00% - 9.00%
I
8.75% - 9.75%
I
9.25% - 10.25%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
I
Washington, DC 5.75% - 6.25%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 9.00% ↓ 8.25% - 9.25%
↓* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAtlantaBaltimoreBostonCharlotteJacksonvilleMiaminashvilleOrlandoPittsburghPhiladelphiaRaleighTampaWashington, DC
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
10
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office Suburban | Central Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAustinChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDetroit houstonIndianapolisKansas CityMinneapolissan Antoniost. Louis
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Austin 6.25% - 7.75%
I
7.00% - 8.50%
I
7.75% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 10.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
Chicago 7.50% - 8.50%
I
8.50% - 10.00%
I
9.00% - 10.25%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
I
11.00% - 12.50%
I
12.50% - 14.00%
I
Cincinnati 8.00% - 8.75%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.50%
I
11.00% - 13.00%
I
Cleveland 8.75% - 9.00% N/a 9.25% - 9.50% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a 9.75% - 10.00% N/a 10.50% - 11.00% N/a 11.00% N/a
Columbus 8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.75% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.00%
I
11.00% - 12.00%
I
Dallas 7.25% - 8.50%
↓
8.25% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
I
10.0% - 11.00%
↓
Detroit 8.50% - 10.00%
I
9.00% - 11.00%
I
9.00% - 12.00%
I
10.00% - 14.00% ↓ 10.00% - 13.00%
I
12.00% - 15.00%
I
houston 6.25% - 7.00%
↓
7.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 12.00%
↓
Indianapolis 8.50% - 9.00%
↓
10.25% - 10.75% ↓ 9.50% - 10.00%
↓
11.75% - 12.25% ↓ N/a N/a N/a N/a
Kansas City 8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00% ↓ 9.00% - 10.00% ↓ 9.50% - 11.00%
I
11.00% - 13.00% ↓ 12.00% - 14.00% ↓
Minneapolis 6.75% - 7.75%
↓
8.25% - 9.25%
↓
8.75% - 9.75%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
11.50% - 12.50%
↓
san Antonio 6.50% - 7.25%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.25% - 8.75%
↓
10.00% -12.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.50%
↓
st. Louis 8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
↓
8.75% - 9.50%
↓
9.25% - 10.00%
↓
10.50% - 12.00%
↓
11.00% - 13.00%
↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
11
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Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Office Suburban | Western Region
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Albuquerque 7.00% - 7.25%
↓
N/a N/a N/a N/a 8.50% - 9.00%
I
N/a N/a 9.50 % - 10.50%
↓
Denver 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.75% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
Las Vegas 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 14.00%
I
N/a N/a
Los Angeles 5.50% - 7.00%
I
6.00% - 7.50%
I
6.50% - 7.50%
I
7.00% - 8.00%
I
7.50% - 9.00%
I
8.50% - 10.00% ↓
Orange County 6.00% - 7.25%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.75% - 9.50%
↓
9.25% - 10.50%
↓
Phoenix 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
Portland 7.75% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
8.75% - 9.50%
I
9.50% - 10.50% ↓ 9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 12.00% ↓
sacramento 8.50% - 9.00% ↓ 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
11.00% - 11.50%
↓
salt Lake City 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.70%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50% I 9.50% - 10.20% I 10.00% - 10.50%
I
san Diego 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
I
7.75% - 8.75%
I
san Francisco 5.75% - 6.75%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
I
7.00% - 8.50% ↓ 7.50% - 9.50% ↓ 9.00% - 11.00% ↓ 9.50% - 12.00% ↓
seattle 5.50% - 6.25%
↓
6.00% - 7.60%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 9.00% N/a 8.50% - 9.50% N/a
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAlbuquerqueDenverLas VegasLos AngelesOrange CountyPhoenixPortlandsacramentosalt Lake Citysan Diegosan Franciscoseattle
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
12
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Multihousing | Overview
Acrossallsectorsofcommercialrealestateinvestment,multihousingistheclosesttothepreviouspeakleveloftransactionactivity.Thesectorhitapeakof$90billionintransactionactivityin2007withactivityoverthelastfourquarterscominginatjustunder$42billionaccordingtofiguresfromRealCapitalAnalytics.Moresothananyothersector,investorshaveboughtintotherecoverystorypresentedinthemultihousingsectorandespeciallytheshiftingattitudeofconsumerstorentinginsteadofowning.
Acrossmarkets,theCBRECapRateSurveypaintsapictureofhealthyinvestordemandacrossanumberofmarkets.Inthe39majormarketssurveyed,capratesforClassAstabilizedmultihousingassetscameinlowerthan5.5%in19ofthesemarkets.This5.5%levelisinterestingasthisisthelevelatwhichoureconomistsatCBREEconometricAdvisorsarethinkingthattheTenYearTreasurywillpeakoncetheeconomyisthroughthisturbulentpatch.TheselowlevelsrelativetotheTenYearTreasurydonotsuggestthattheseassetsareoverpricedsomuchastheyindicatetheinvestorexpectationsforfutureincomegrowthinthesemarkets.
Select from the list below to access the current multihousing cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete Multihousing Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete Multihousing Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
13
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Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Multihousing | eastern Region
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Atlanta 4.85% - 5.75%
↓
5.25% - 6.10%
↓
5.85% - 6.85%
↓
6.10% - 7.25% ↓ 6.85% - 8.50%
I
7.50% - 10.00% ↓
Baltimore 4.75% - 5.75% ↓ N/a N/a 6.00% - 6.75% ↓ 6.00% - 7.00% ↓ 7.00% - 7.75%
I
7.50%
I
Boston 4.00% - 5.00%
I
N/a N/a 5.00% - 6.00%
↓
5.50% - 6.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00% ↓ 8.00% - 9.00% ↓
Charlotte 4.75% - 5.00%
↓
5.00% - 5.75%
↓
6.00% - 6.75%
I
6.50% - 7.25% I 7.50% - 8.25% ↓ 8.00%
I
Jacksonville 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
5.25% - 6.00%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%
I
6.00% - 6.75% I 7.50% - 8.50% ↓ 7.00% - 8.00%
I
Miami* 4.75% - 5.75%
I
5.50% - 6.50% ↓ 5.50% - 6.50%
I
6.25% - 7.25% ↓ 7.00% - 8.50%
I
8.50% - 12.00% ↓
nashville 5.25% - 6.25%
I
5.50% - 6.50%
I
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.250% - 7.25% I 7.00% - 7.75%
↓
7.25% - 8.00% ↓
new York City 4.00% - 4.75%
↓
4.00% - 4.50%
↓
4.25% - 5.25%
↓
4.25% - 5.00%
↓
5.75% - 6.75%
↓
5.50% - 6.50%
I
Orlando 5.25% - 5.75%
↓
5.50% - 6.00%
↓
5.75% - 6.25%
I
6.00% - 6.50%
I
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
I
Philadelphia 5.00% - 5.25%
I
5.00% - 5.25%
I
6.25% - 6.75%
I
6.25% - 6.75%
I
7.00% - 7.50% I 7.00% - 7.50%
I
Pittsburgh 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
I
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
I
7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
Raleigh 4.50% - 5.75%
↓
N/a N/a 5.75% - 7.00%
I
5.50%
↓
7.50% - 9.50% ↓ 7.50%
I
Tampa 5.50% - 6.00%
I
5.25% - 5.75%
↓
6.25% - 6.50%
I
6.00% - 6.50%
I
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓Washington, DC 4.25% - 5.25%
I
N/a N/a 5.75% - 6.25% ↓ 5.75% - 6.50% ↓ 6.50% - 7.25%↓
7.00%I
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add
AtlantaBaltimoreBostonCharlotteJacksonvilleMiaminashvillenew York CityOrlandoPhiladelphiaPittsburghRaleighTampaWashington, DC
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
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Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
14
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Overview
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Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Multihousing | Central Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAustinChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDetroit
houstonIndianapolisKansas CityMinneapolissan Antoniost. Louis
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Austin 4.75% - 5.25%
↓
4.50% - 5.00%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.75% - 7.25%
↓
6.75% -7.25%
↓
Chicago 4.50% - 5.25%
I
4.25% - 4.75%
↓
6.00% - 6.50% ↓ 5.75% - 6.25% I 7.00% - 7.25%
I
7.00% - 7.25%
↓
Cincinnati 6.50% - 7.00%
I
6.75% - 7.50% ↓ 7.00% - 8.00%
I
7.00% - 8.50% I 9.00% - 11.00% ↓ 9.50% - 12.00% ↓
Cleveland 7.75% - 8.00% N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 10.44% - 11.50% N/a 13.25% - 14.00% N/a
Columbus 6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00% ↓ 9.50% - 10.50% ↓ 10.00% - 11.00% ↓
Dallas 5.00% - 6.00%
I
5.50% - 6.00% I 6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00% I 8.25%
↓
9.00%
I
Detroit 7.35% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
8.25% - 9.25%
↓
8.25% - 9.25%
↓
9.50% - 11.50%
↓
9.50% - 11.50%
↓
houston 5.00% - 6.00%
↓
5.00% - 6.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
Indianapolis 6.00% - 6.50%
I
5.75% - 6.50% I 6.75% - 7.25%
I
6.50% - 7.00% I 8.00% - 9.00%
I
8.00% - 10.00%
I
Kansas City 5.50% - 6.25%
↓
5.50% - 6.25%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
8.00% - 10.00%
I
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
Minneapolis 5.00% - 5.50%
I
5.25% - 5.75%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
san Antonio 6.00% - 6.75% ↓ N/a N/a 7.00% - 7.25%
↓
7.50% - 8.00% ↓ 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 10.00% ↓
st. Louis 5.50% - 6.50%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50% ↓ 8.50% - 9.50% ↓ 9.00% - 10.50%
I
10.00% - 15.00% ↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
15
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Multihousing | Western Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAlbuquerqueDenverInland empireLas VegasLos AngelesOrange CountyPhoenixPortlandsacramentosan Diegosan Franciscoseattle
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Albuquerque 5.75% - 6.00%
↓
6.00% - 6.25%
↓
6.25% - 6.50%
↓
6.50% - 6.75%
I
7.25% - 7.75%
I
7.50% - 8.00% ↓
Denver 4.75% - 5.00%
↓
4.75% - 5.00%
↓
5.50% - 6.00%
↓
5.25% - 5.75%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
Inland empire 5.25% - 5.75% ↓ 5.00% - 5.50%
I
5.75% - 6.25%
↓
5.50% - 6.00% ↓ 6.50% - 7.25%
↓
6.50% - 7.25% ↓
Las Vegas 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
5.50% - 6.00%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
Los Angeles 3.75% - 4.25%
↓
3.75% - 4.25%
↓
4.25% - 4.75%
↓
4.25% - 4.75%
↓
4.75% - 5.50%
↓
4.75% - 5.50%
↓
Orange County 4.25% - 4.75%
↓
4.00% - 4.50%
↓
5.25% - 5.50%
I
5.00% - 5.50% I 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
5.25% - 6.00%
↓
Phoenix 4.50% - 5.25%
I
4.50% - 5.25%
↓
5.50% - 6.00%
I
5.50% - 6.00% I 6.00% - 7.00% I 6.00% - 7.00%
I
Portland 4.75% - 5.25%
I
5.00% - 5.50%
I
5.50% - 6.00%
I
5.50% - 6.00%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
I
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
sacramento 5.25% - 5.75%
↓
5.75% - 6.25%
↓
6.00% - 6.50%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
N/a N/a N/a N/a
san Diego 4.25% - 4.75%
I
4.00% - 4.50%
I
5.25% - 5.75% ↓ 5.00% - 5.50% ↓ 5.50% - 6.00%
I
5.00% - 6.00%
↓
san Francisco 4.00% - 4.50%
↓
4.50% - 5.00%
↓
5.00% - 5.50% ↓ 5.50% - 6.00% ↓ 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
6.00% - 6.50%
↓
seattle 4.00% - 4.50%
↓
4.25% - 4.75%
↓
5.00% - 6.00%
↓
5.25% - 6.00%
↓
6.00% - 6.50%
↓
6.00% - 6.50%
↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
16
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Retail | Overview
Theretailsectorhadbeenthelaggardintotheearlystagesoftherecoverywithinvestorinterestinthissectorcomparativelymutedinto2010withalowpaceofinvestmentactivityearlyintheyear.Withabitofareboundinretailsalesandanendintheerosiontoproperty-levelperformance,theinvestmentactivityinthesectorhasreboundedstronglyintothefirsthalfof2011.Atjustover$17billion,totalinvestmentactivityisupjustover190%fromayearearlieraccordingtofiguresfromRealCapitalAnalytics,thestrongestturnaroundforallsectorsofcommercialrealestateCBREhassurveyedforthisreport.
Acrossmarkets,theCBRECapRateSurveyshowsafairlyconsistentstorywithregardstothepricingofgroceryanchoredshoppingcentersversusthePowerCenterformat.WhetherinvestorsareactiveintheClassA,BorCsegmentsofthemarket,PowerCentercapratesarecominginhigherthantheirgrocery-anchoredequivalents.Regardlessofassetclass,investorsseelessriskofongoingshockstogroceryrelatedretailandarewillingtopaypremiumsfortheseassets.
Select from the list below to access the current retail cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete Retail Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete Retail Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
17
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Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Retail | eastern Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class Cneighborhood/
Community (Grocery Anchored)
Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
AtlantaBaltimore
BostonCharlotteJacksonvilleMiamiOrlandoPhiladelphiaRaleighTampaWashington, DC
Class A Class B Class Cneighborhood/
Community (Grocery
Anchored) Trend*Power
Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
Atlanta 6.00% - 7.00%
I
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 10.00%
↓
8.50% - 12.00%
I
Baltimore 5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.25% - 6.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.25% - 10.25%
↓
Boston 5.75% - 6.75%
↓
6.75% - 7.25%
I
7.25% - 8.00%
I
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.75% - 9.50%
I
9.50% - 10.50%
I
Charlotte 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
Jacksonville 6.50% - 7.00%
I
7.00% - 7.50%
I
7.25% - 7.75%
I
7.50% - 8.25%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
Miami 6.25% - 6.75%
I
6.75% - 7.25%
I
6.75% - 7.25%
I
7.25% - 8.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
Orlando 6.50% - 7.00% I 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.25% - 7.75% I 7.50% - 8.25% I 8.00% - 11.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
Philadelphia 6.50% - 7.50%
I
7.50% - 8.00%
I
8.25% - 9.25%
I
9.50% - 10.25%
I
9.50% - 10.50%
I
10.00% - 10.75%
I
Raleigh 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00%
↓
Tampa 6.50% - 7.00%
I
7.00% - 7.50%
I
7.25% - 7.75%
I
7.50% - 8.25%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
I
Washington, DC 5.50% - 6.25%↓
6.00% - 6.50%↓
7.50% - 8.00%I
7.50% - 8.25%↓
9.00% - 10.00%↓
9.25% - 10.25%↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
18
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Retail | Central Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
AustinChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDetroithoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMinneapolissan Antoniost. Louis
Class A Class B Class Cneighborhood/
Community (Grocery
Anchored) Trend*Power
Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
Austin 6.00% - 7.25% N/a 6.75% - 7.75% N/a 8.00% - 9.25% N/a 8.25% - 9.50% N/a 9.25% - 10.25% N/a 10.25% - 11.50% N/a
Chicago 6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
I
9.00% - 10.00%
I
9.50% - 11.00%
I
Cincinnati 6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.25% - 7.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
Cleveland 7.00% - 7.50% N/a 7.50% - 8.00% N/a 8.25% - 8.75% N/a 8.75% - 9.25% N/a 10.00% - 11.00% N/a 10.00% - 12.00% N/a
Columbus 6.75% - 7.25% N/a 7.25% - 7.75% N/a 8.00% - 8.50% N/a 8.50% - 9.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.50% N/a 10.00% - 11.00% N/a
Dallas 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.25%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
I
9.50% - 11.00%
I
Detroit 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.50% - 12.00%
I
11.00% - 13.00% ↓
houston 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.25%
↓
7.25% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
I
9.50% - 11.00%
I
Indianapolis 6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.25% - 7.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
Kansas City 6.75% - 7.25% N/a 7.25% - 7.75% N/a 8.00% - 8.50% N/a 8.50% - 9.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.50% N/a 10.00% - 11.00% N/a
Minneapolis 6.25% - 6.75%
↓
6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
I
9.00% - 10.00%
I
9.50% - 11.00%
Isan Antonio 6.00% - 7.25%
↓
7.00% - 7.75%I
7.50% - 8.50%↓
7.75% - 9.00%I
9.25% - 10.25%↓
10.25% - 11.50%I
st. Louis 6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.25% - 7.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
19
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Retail | Western Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*Class A Class B Class C
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored)Power Centers
AlbuquerqueDenverLas VegasLos AngelesOrange CountyPhoenixPortlandsacramentosalt Lake Citysan Diegosan Franciscoseattle
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
Class A Class B Class Cneighborhood/
Community (Grocery
Anchored) Trend*Power
Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
neighborhood/ Community
(Grocery Anchored) Trend*
Power Centers Trend*
Albuquerque 6.50% - 7.00% N/a 7.00% - 8.00% N/a 7.50% - 9.00% N/a 8.00% - 10.00% N/a 8.00% - 11.00% N/a 10.00% - 12.00% N/a
Denver 6.50% - 6.75% N/a 6.80% - 7.00% N/a 7.75% - 8.25% N/a 8.00% - 8.75% N/a 9.00% - 10.00% N/a 9.00% - 10.00% N/a
Las Vegas 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 9.00%
I
8.00% - 10.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
Los Angeles 4.75% - 5.75%
↓
5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
Orange County 4.75% - 5.75%
↓
5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
Phoenix 6.25% - 7.00%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 11.50%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
Portland 5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%
I
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.25% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
sacramento 6.25% - 7.00%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
I
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
7.75% - 9.00%
I
8.00% - 11.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
salt Lake City 6.50% - 7.00% N/a 7.00% - 8.00% N/a 7.50% - 9.00% N/a 8.00% - 10.00% N/a 8.00% - 11.00% N/a 10.00% - 12.00% N/a
san Diego 4.75% - 5.75%
↓
5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
san Francisco 4.75% - 5.75%
↓
5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓seattle 5.75% - 6.50%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%I
7.00% - 7.50%↓
7.25% - 8.50%↓
8.00% - 9.50%↓
9.50% - 10.50%↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
20
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Industrial | Overview
Inthefirsthalfof2011,transactionactivityintheindustrialsectorwasup43%fromayearearlieraccordingtofiguresfromRealCapitalAnalytics.Remarkably,thispaceofgrowthistheslowestacrossallsectorsofcommercialproperty.Theindustrialsectorwasalsobringinguptheyearatthistimelastyear.Totaltransactionactivityisstillroughlyonlyathirdthelevelhitatthepeakin2007whileothersectorssuchasmultihousingandretailarenowatlevelsroughlyhalfofthatseenin2007.Theselevelsarenotreflectiveofalackofinvestorinterestinthesector,insteadreflectinganarrowingoninteresttowardsparticulartypesofindustrialassets;moderndistributionassetssuitableformodernlogisticssupport.
Thismovetowardsinvestordemandformoderndistributionassetscanbeseeninrelativepricingacrossmarkets.ThereareahandfulofmarketswherethesetypesofassetsareclusteredwithmarketslikeDallas,Chicago,NewYork/NewJerseyandLosAngeles(InlandEmpire)showingcapratesbelow7%forthehighestqualityassetsinthefirsthalfof2011accordingtotheCBRECapRateSurvey.Bycontrast,majormanufacturingmarketsintheMidwestthatstillfaceeconomicstrugglessawcapratesforclassAassetsinexcessof8%.
Select from the list below to access the current industrial cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete Industrial Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete Industrial Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
21
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Industrial | eastern Region
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Atlanta 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
Baltimore 6.75% - 7.25%
↓
7.75% - 8.25% I 7.50% - 8.25%
↓
8.75% - 9.50% ↓ 8.75% - 9.75% I 9.75% - 10.75% I
Boston 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
↓
Charlotte 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.75% - 9.25%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
Jacksonville 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.50% - 10.00% ↓ 10.00% - 11.00% ↓ 12.00% - 13.00% ↓ 12.00% - 13.00% ↓
Miami 5.75% - 6.25%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%
↓
6.25% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
nashville 7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.25% - 8.50% I 8.75% - 9.50% ↓ 9.50% - 10.00% ↓ 9.50% - 10.00% ↓ 10.00%
↓
new York/northern nJ** 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
Orlando 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
10.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.75%
↓
11.00% - 12.00%
↓
Philadelphia 7.00% - 7.50% I 8.00% - 8.50%
↓
7.75% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.75%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
Pittsburgh 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
10.50% - 11.00%
↓
Raleigh 6.50% - 8.25%
↓
7.50%
↓
7.50% - 9.00%
↓
8.00%
↓
N/a N/a N/a N/a
Tampa 6.50% - 7.25%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.25% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓Washington, DC 6.00% - 6.50% N/a 6.50% - 7.00% N/a 7.25% - 7.50% N/a 8.00% - 8.50% N/a 8.50% - 9.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a
* Compared to 2nd half 2010 ** Compared to 2nd half 2010 New Jersey (central/north)
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add
AtlantaBaltimoreBostonCharlotteJacksonvilleMiaminashvilleOrlandoPhiladelphiaPittsburghRaleigh N/a N/aTampaWashington, DC
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
22
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Industrial | Central Region
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Austin 7.25% - 8.25% I 8.00% - 8.75%
↓
7.75% - 8.75%
↓
8.50% - 9.25%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
8.75% - 10.00%
↓
Chicago 6.50% - 6.75% I 6.75% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
I
Cincinnati 7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
I
10.00% - 12.00% ↓ 10.50% - 12.50%
↓
Cleveland 8.00% - 8.50% N/a 8.50% - 9.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a 8.75% - 9.25% N/a 11.50% - 12.00% N/a
Columbus 7.25% - 8.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.00% - 11.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
12.00% - 13.00%
I
12.00% - 13.00%
I
Dallas 6.25% - 7.25%
I
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 9.25%
↓
8.00% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 11.00%
I
Detroit 8.00% - 8.25%
↓
N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a
houston 6.75% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 9.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.50%
↓
10.00% - 15.00%
I
Indianapolis 7.50%
↓
8.50%
↓
9.00%
↓
10.00%
↓
10.50%
↓
11.00%
↓
Kansas City 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 7.75%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
I
8.50% - 8.75%
I
9.00% - 10.00%
I
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
Minneapolis 6.50% - 7.25%
↓
8.00% - 8.75%
↓
7.75% - 8.50%
↓
9.25% - 10.00% ↓ 9.00% - 10.00%
↓
11.00% - 12.00% ↓
san Antonio 7.25% - 7.75% N/a 7.75% - 8.25% N/a 7.75% - 8.25% N/a 8.50 - 8.75% N/a 9.25% - 10.00% N/a 11.00% - 12.00% N/a
st. Louis 7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
↓
8.25% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.75%
↓
10.00% - 11.00%
↓
11.00% - 15.00% I
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add
AustinChicagoCincinnatiClevelandColumbusDallasDetroithoustonIndianapolisKansas CityMinneapolissan Antoniost. Louis
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
23
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Industrial | Western Region
CAP RATe FOReCAsT*
Class A Class B Class C
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAlbuquerqueDenver N/a N/a N/a
Las VegasLos AngelesOrange CountyPhoenixPortlandsacramentosalt Lake Citysan Diegosan Franciscoseattle
Class A Class B Class Cstabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add Trend*
Albuquerque N/a N/a N/a N/a 9.00% - 10.00% N/a N/a N/a 9.50% - 10.00% N/a N/a N/a
Denver 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.25% - 8.75%
↓
8.75% - 9.50%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
Las Vegas 6.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 9.50%
I
6.50% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 10.00%
↓
9.00% - 12.00%
↓
9.00% - 12.00%
↓
Los Angeles 4.75% - 5.75%
↓
5.25% - 6.25%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
7.25% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
Orange County 5.00% - 5.50%
↓
5.75% - 6.75%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.25%
↓
7.00% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 8.50%
↓
Phoenix 6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00%
↓
10.00% - 12.00%
I
Portland 7.25% - 8.00%
↓
7.50% - 9.00%
↓
7.75% - 8.25%
↓
8.00% - 10.00%
↓
8.50% - 9.50%
↓
8.50% - 10.50%
↓
sacramento 7.50%
↓
9.00%
↓
8.50%
↓
9.50%
↓
9.00%
↓
11.00%
↓
salt Lake City 7.50% - 8.00%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.50% - 9.00%
I
9.00% - 9.50%
I
10.00%
I
san Diego 6.00% - 6.50%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
6.50% - 7.00%
↓
7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.50% - 8.00%
I
8.00% - 8.50%
I
san Francisco 5.50% - 6.75%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
6.25% - 7.50%
↓
7.00% - 8.50%
↓
8.00% - 10.00% ↓ 8.50% - 11.00%
↓
seattle 6.25% - 7.00%
↓
6.75% - 7.25%
↓
6.50% - 7.25%
↓
7.75% - 8.25%
I
7.75% - 8.25%
I
8.25% - 9.00%
↓Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
24
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Hotels | Overview
TheCBRECapRateSurveyprovidesinformationontheHotelsectorthatisnotreallyavailableelsewhere.Withtotaltransactionactivityinthesectorrepresentingroughly9%ofannualactivityacrossallcommercialpropertysectors,theresimplyoftenarenotenoughtransactionstodevelopreliablebenchmarksofsalescomparables.
Still,transactionactivityhasgrownquicklyin2011.Comparedtothepaceofactivityseeninthefirsthalfof2010,salesvolumewasup147%inthefirsthalfof2011asthefundamentaldriverofhotelroomdemandwasrising.Whilefearsofadouble-diprecessionhavebecomemorepresentintothe3rdquarterof2011,inthefirsthalfoftheyearthepaceofbusinessinvestmentwasrisingandbusinesstravelwasgrowing.
Themarketswhereinvestorsarelikelytofacethelowestgoing-incapratestodayarethosemajorcentersofbusinessactivitywhicharealsoattractivetoinvestorsintheofficesector.StabilizedhotelcapratesarelowestinmarketslikeNewYork,Boston,SanFranciscoandSeattlewithcapratelevelslowerthan6%fortheluxurysegment.
Select from the list below to access the current hotels cap rates and forecast.
Download a Complete hotels Current Cap Rates Chart (PDF)
Download a Complete hotels Cap Rate Forecast Chart (PDF)
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
25
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Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Hotels | National
Luxury Full servicestabilized Trend* Value Add** Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add** Trend*
Albuquerque 8.00% - 8.50% N/A 8.25% - 8.75% N/A 8.25% - 8.75% N/A 9.25% - 9.75% N/A
Atlanta 7.00% - 7.50% ↓ 7.50% - 8.00% ↓ 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% I
Austin 7.00% - 8.00% N/A 7.50% - 8.50% N/A 8.50% - 9.00% N/A 9.00% - 9.50% N/A
Baltimore 7.75% - 8.75% ↓ 8.25% - 9.25% I 8.00% - 9.00% ↓ 8.50% - 9.50% I
Boston 4.00% - 5.00%
↓
N/a N/A 6.00% - 7.00% I 6.50% - 7.50% ↓
Charlotte 8.00% - 9.00% N/A 8.50% - 9.50% N/A 8.50% - 9.50% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A
Chicago 7.50% - 8.50% ↓ 7.75% - 8.75% ↓ 8.00% - 9.00% ↓ 8.25% - 9.25% I
Columbus N/a N/A N/a N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.50% - 10.50% N/A
Dallas 7.00% - 7.50%
↓
7.25% - 7.75%
↓
9.50% - 10.00% ↓ 9.75% - 10.25% I
Denver 7.00% - 7.50% I 7.25% - 7.75% I 7.25% - 7.75%
↓
8.25% - 8.75% I
Jacksonville 8.50% - 9.00% N/A 9.25% - 10.00% N/A 9.00% - 9.50% N/A 9.75% - 10.50% N/A
Kansas City 7.50% - 9.00% N/A 10.00% - 13.00% N/A 8.50% - 11.00% N/A 12.00% N/A
Las Vegas N/a N/A N/a N/A 7.00% - 8.00%
↓
9.00% N/A
Los Angeles 6.00% - 8.50% I 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 10.00% ↓
Miami 7.50% - 8.50% ↓ 9.00% - 10.00% ↓ 8.50% - 9.50% ↓ 9.50% - 10.50% ↓
new York City 5.50% - 6.00%
↓
10.00% ↓ 6.00% - 6.75%
↓
10.00% ↓
Orange County 6.00% - 8.50% I 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 10.00% I
Orlando 8.00% - 9.00% ↓ 8.50% - 10.00% ↓ 8.50% - 9.50% I 9.00% - 10.50% ↓
Philadelphia 6.50% - 7.50% N/A 10.00% N/A 8.00% - 9.00% N/A 10.00% N/APhoenix 5.50% - 7.00% N/A 7.00% - 8.00% N/A 7.50% - 8.00% N/A 8.25% - 9.00% N/APittsburgh N/a N/A 8.00% - 11.00% N/A 9.00% 11.00% N/A 9.50% - 11.50% N/APortland 6.50% - 7.50% N/A 6.75% - 8.00% N/A 6.50% - 7.50% N/A 7.00% - 8.50% N/ARaleigh 8.50% - 9.50% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.50% - 10.50% N/Asan Antonio 7.00% - 8.00% N/A 7.00% - 9.00% N/A 8.00% - 9.00% N/A 8.00% - 10.00% N/A
san Diego 6.00% - 8.50%
↓
7.00% - 9.00% I 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 10.00% N/A
san Francisco 5.00% - 6.00% ↓ 8.00% - 10.00% ↓ 6.00% - 7.00%
↓
8.00% - 10.00% ↓
seattle 5.00% - 6.00%
↓
6.00% - 7.00%
↓
5.50% - 6.50%
↓
5.50% - 7.00%
↓
st. Louis 7.50% - 9.00% N/A 10.00% - 13.00% N/A 8.50% - 11.00% N/A 12.00% N/A
Washington, DC 7.00% - 8.00% ↓ 7.25% - 8.25% ↓ 7.50% - 8.50% ↓ 7.75% - 8.75% ↓
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010** value-add cap rates are based on a year 3 stabilized NOI divided by total cost
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
26
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Hotels | National
select service economystabilized Trend* Value Add** Trend* stabilized Trend* Value Add** Trend*
Albuquerque 8.50% - 9.00% N/A 9.00% - 9.50% N/A 10.50% - 11.00% N/A 11.50% - 11.75% N/A
Atlanta 8.00% - 8.50% I 8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 10.00% I 10.00% - 12.00% ↓
Austin 8.75% - 9.25% N/A 9.00% - 9.50% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A
Baltimore 8.25% - 9.25% ↓ 8.75% - 9.75% I 10.75% I 11.25% I
Boston 6.00% - 7.00% N/A 6.50% - 7.50% N/A 7.00% - 8.00% N/A 8.00% - 9.00% N/ACharlotte 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.50% - 10.50% N/A 10.50% N/A 12.00% - 13.00% N/A
Chicago 8.00% - 9.00% I 8.25% - 9.25%
↓
N/a N/A N/a N/A
Columbus 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.50% - 10.50% N/A 10.50% - 12.00% N/A 11.00% - 12.50% N/A
Dallas 8.50% - 9.00%
↓
9.00% - 9.50%
↓
10.00% - 10.50%
↓
10.50% - 11.50% I
Denver 7.50% - 8.00% I 8.00% - 8.50% ↓ 9.50% - 10.00% ↓ 10.50% - 10.75% I
Jacksonville 9.50% - 10.00% N/A 9.75% - 11.00% N/A 10.00% - 10.50% N/A 11.00% - 12.00% N/A
Kansas City 8.50% - 11.00% N/A 12.00% N/A 10.00% - 12.00% N/A 15.00% N/A
Las Vegas N/a N/A N/a N/A N/a N/A N/a N/A
Los Angeles 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 10.00% ↓ 8.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 11.50% I
Miami 9.00% - 10.00% ↓ 9.50% - 11.00% ↓ 9.50% - 10.50% ↓ 10.00% - 12.00% ↓
new York City 6.75% - 8.00%
↓
10.00% ↓ 8.00% - 9.00%
↓
10.00% ↓
Orange County 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ 7.00% - 10.00% I 8.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 11.50%
↓
Orlando 9.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 11.00% ↓ 9.50% - 10.50% I 10.00% - 12.00% I
Philadelphia 7.50% - 8.50% N/A 10.00% N/A 9.00% - 10.00% N/A 10.00% N/APhoenix 8.00% - 9.50% N/A 9.50% - 10.50% N/A 10.00% - 11.00% N/A 10.00% - 13.00% N/APittsburgh 10.00% - 14.00% N/A 11.00% - 14.00% N/A 12.00% - 15.00% N/A N/a N/APortland 8.00% - 9.00% N/A 8.50% - 10.00% N/A 9.75% - 11.50% N/A 10.50% - 12.50% N/ARaleigh 9.50% - 10.50% N/A 10.00% - 11.00% N/A 11.00% N/A 12.50% - 13.50% N/Asan Antonio 8.00% - 9.00% N/A 8.00% - 10.00% N/A 9.50% - 11.00% N/A 10.00% - 13.00% N/A
san Diego 7.00% - 9.00% I 7.00% - 10.00% I 8.00% - 10.00% I 9.50% - 11.50% ↓
san Francisco 7.00% - 9.00% ↓ N/a N/A 8.00% - 10.00% I N/a N/A
seattle 6.25% - 7.25%
↓
6.50% - 7.50%
↓
9.50% - 10.50%
↓
11.00% - 13.00% I
st. Louis 8.50% - 11.00% N/A 12.00% N/A 10.00% - 12.00% N/A 15.00% N/A
Washington, DC 7.50% - 8.50% ↓ 7.75% - 8.75% I 10.00% I 10.25% I
* Compared to 2nd Half 2010** value-add cap rates are based on a year 3 stabilized NOI divided by total cost
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
27
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Hotels | National
Luxury Full service select service economy
stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value Add stabilized Value AddAlbuquerqueAtlantaAustinBaltimoreBostonCharlotteChicagoColumbusDallasDenverJacksonvilleKansas CityLas VegasLos AngelesMiaminew York CityOrange CountyOrlandoPhiladelphiaPhoenixPittsburghPortlandRaleighsan Antoniosan Diegosan Franciscoseattlest. LouisWashington, DC
Decrease
RemainFlat
Increase
* Cap Rate Forecast represents the CBRe professional’s opinion of where cap rates are likely to trend in 2nd half of 2011 in their local market.
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
28
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rates (Office, Industrial, Retail, and hotel)
Cap rate ranges were best estimates provided by CBRe professionals based on recent trades in their local market as well as recent interaction
with investors. the ranges represent those cap rates that a given property will trade at in this current market. Stabilized cap rates were based
on in-place NOI for the latest year before adjusted for reserves. value-add cap rates were based on projected stabilized NOI. actual cap rates
within each asset class will vary, occasionally outside of the stated ranges, based on asset/location quality and property-specific opportunities for
NOI enhancement.
Cap Rates (Multihousing only)
Cap rate ranges are based on an estimated NOI derived by annualizing the last 90-days of revenue and subtracting what buyers would estimate
as stabilized, year one expenses after adjustments for real estate taxes and reserves. actual cap rates within each asset class will vary, occasionally
outside of the stated ranges, based on asset/location quality and property-specific opportunities for NOI enhancement.
CBD
the Central Business District of a major city
Class A
Best-of-class product, attract larger, top quality tenants with 5- and 10-year leases, often newer construction
Class B
Older product, mostly 5-year leases, typically previously owned
Class C
typically an older building that offers space without amenities. attracts moderate to low income tenants.
Appendix | Definitions
In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
Cap Rate Survey August 2011
29
<< | >>In ThIs Issue:
Overview
Office
Multihousing
Retail
Industrial
hotel
Appendix
economy
Hotel chains that are priced within the 20.0-40.0% percentile in terms of average annual room rates according to Smith travel Research
Full service
a hotel property with more than 150 rooms, room service, an on-site restaurant and a concierge service.
Luxury
Hotel chains that are priced in the top 15.0% percentile in terms of average annual room rates according to Smith travel Research
neighborhood/Commercial Center (Grocery Anchored)
enclosed retail center that is anchored by a supermarket or other type of grocery store. Can range from 150K SF-350K SF
Power Center
Open-air retail center comprised of larger, brand name tenants. Limited CRu space and typically 400K+ SF or in a node of that size
select service
a hotel property with less than 150 rooms, no room service and no on-site restaurant or concierge service.
stabilized Property
a property that has an occupancy level at or above the local average under typical market conditions
suburban
Mainly residential area located within close proximity to a major city
Value-Add Property
an underperforming property that has an occupancy level below the local average under typical market conditions
Appendix | Definitions (continued)
©2011CBRichardEllis,Inc.Theinformationabovehasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedreliable.Whilewedonotdoubtitsaccuracy,wehavenotverifieditandmakenoguarantee,warrantyorrepresentationaboutit.Itisyourresponsibilitytoindependentlyconfirmitsaccuracyandcompleteness.Anyprojections,opinions,assumptionsorestimatesusedareforexampleonlyaanddonotrepresentthecurrentorfutureperformanceoftheproperty.Thevalueofthistransactiontoyoudependsontaxandotherfactorswhichshouldbeevaluatedbyyourtax,finan-cialandlegaladvisors.Youandyouradvisorsshouldconductacareful,independentinvestigationofthepropertytodeterminetoyoursatisfactionthesuitabilityofthepropertyforyourneeds.
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CHRISLUDEMANPresident
CBRECapitalMarkets
JIMCoSTELLoVice President, Investment Strategy Services
CBREEconometricAdvisors
BRIANSToFFERSPresident
CBRECapitalMarkets
RAYWoNGExecutive Director, Americas
CBREResearch
ASIEHMANSoURHead of Research, Americas
CBREResearch
THoMASMCDoNNELLPresident
CBREValulationandAdvisoryServices