CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market...

CBER and Lied Institute Report

CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions

Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012

The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012

The charts and figures within the CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions

provide statistical information about the housing market in the Greater Las Vegas Area,

Clark County, and the United States. These figures reflect the data from numerous

sources and in-house calculations. Please contact the Lied Institute for Real Estate

Studies at (702) 895-3223 for questions about this report.

Housing Markets Conditions in 3rd Quarter 2012

Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD

Professor of Economics

Director, Center for Business

and Economic Research

Luis Arturo Lopez

Data Analyst, Lied Institute

for Real Estate Studies

Housing Units and Vacancies in the Greater Las Vegas Area, by Housing Type: 2012Q3

Type of Housing Unita

Estimated Units

in the Greater

Las Vegas Areab

Estimated Vacant

Units in the Greater

Las Vegas Area

Vacancy Rate

(%)

MLS Listings in

the Greater Las

Vegas Areac

Vacant MLS

Listingsc

MLS Vacancy

Rate (%)c

Single-family detached 477,387 44,584 9.3% 17,123 6,414 37.5%

Condominium 84,453 14,822 17.6% 2,105 990 47.0%

Townhouse 39,838 4,502 11.3% 1,226 499 40.7%

Apartment 169,331 20,307 12.0% - - -

Total 771,009 84,215 10.9% 20,454 7,903 38.6%

Note: Calculations of the estimated units and vacant units are based on data from Clark County, Nevada and meter counts from NV Energy.

aExcludes mobile homes and multiplex units. bUnit counts provided by Clark County, Nevada 2011 Population Estimates. cMultiple Listing Service data provided by Residential Resources.

Permits: A Future Market Indicator

3rd Quarter,2011

Total: 1,063

4th Quarter,2011

Total: 1,103

1st Quarter,2012

Total: 1,669

2nd Quarter,2012

Total: 2,338

3rd Quarter,2012

Total: 1,882

Commercial Units 59 44 62 37 27

Multi-Family Units 103 171 539 324 243

Single-Family Units 901 888 1,068 1,977 1,612

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit1

3rd Quarter,2011

Total: 1,004

4th Quarter,2011

Total: 1,059

1st Quarter,2012

Total: 1,607

2ndQuarter,

2012Total: 2,301

3rd Quarter,2012

Total: 1,855

Res Building Permits 442 407 510 1,195 811

City of Las Vegas 184 291 224 442 294

City of North Las Vegas 159 116 94 270 152

Henderson 176 227 206 331 305

Boulder City 0 0 5 1 3

Mesquite 43 18 29 62 47

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Residential-Building Permits All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority1



Single-Family Housing Market: Details

April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012August2012

September2012

Available units (left axis) 17,884 17,346 16,930 16,944 17,047 16,775

Median list price (right axis) $132,945 $135,000 $135,000 $139,900 $139,990 $142,000

$126,000

$127,500

$129,000

$130,500

$132,000

$133,500

$135,000

$136,500

$138,000

$139,500

$141,000

$142,500

$144,000

16,500

16,700

16,900

17,100

17,300

17,500

17,700

17,900

18,100

MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units2

44.2% 47.0% 48.3% 49.0% 53.4% 53.1%

16.9% 17.3% 17.1% 16.0%

13.1% 14.1%

10.7% 10.1% 9.7% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3%

7.4% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1%

20.8% 18.9% 18.6% 18.7% 17.2% 16.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012

Percent of Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market2

0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days



Single-Family Housing Market: Details

Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 3rd Quarter, 20122

89124

89165

89161

89005

89166

89115

89122

89015

89011

89052

89131

89141

89138

89119

89044

89129

89149

89179

89113

89012

89118

89110

89139 89123

89002

89031

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

89074

89121

89178

89148

89086

89087

89084

89085

89014

8908189130

89120

89147

89134

89183

89103

8915689128

89107 89101

89106

89102

89104 8914289146

89144

89145

89109

89143

89169

89004

Number of Sales Q3 2012

0 - 25

26 - 76

77 - 151

152 - 201

202 - 251

252 - 422



Single-Family Housing/Condo & Townhouse

Market: Details*

*All condominium and townhouse entities consist of 1-4 units.

**Data are not seasonally adjusted.

Note: The figures display a graphical presentation of inventory movements. The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of listings at the

end of the month by the number of units sold during that same month. The absorption rate can be interpreted as the number of months needed to

deplete the inventory if no more units are listed and if the number of units sold remains constant. The new listings to sales ratio is calculated by

dividing the number of new listings in a month by the number of units sold during that same month.


September2012

Absorption rate 5.62 5.08 5.27 5.86 5.54 6.29

No. of units sold 3,185 3,413 3,214 2,890 3,076 2,666

New listings to sales 1.10 0.98 1.04 1.21 1.21 1.23

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Inventory Ratios and Number of Single-Family Residential Units Sold2**


September2012

Absorption rate 5.19 5.17 5.08 5.51 6.26 6.02

No. of units sold 739 721 731 682 612 632

New listings to sales 1.05 1.05 1.14 1.22 1.49 1.27

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Inventory Ratios and Number of Condo & Townhouse Units Sold2**



Condo & Townhouse Market: Details


September2012

Available units (left axis) 3,836 3,728 3,713 3,758 3,830 3,805

Median list price (right axis) $67,900 $69,000 $69,500 $69,900 $70,000 $70,000

$66,500

$67,000

$67,500

$68,000

$68,500

$69,000

$69,500

$70,000

$70,500

3,700

3,720

3,740

3,760

3,780

3,800

3,820

3,840

3,860

MLS Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Condo & Townhouse Units2

49.3% 51.3% 52.9% 56.0% 55.6% 55.7%

21.2% 18.4% 18.7% 19.1% 16.7% 16.1%

9.3% 7.6% 7.7% 8.7%

7.2% 7.9%

6.1% 6.5%

6.7% 4.1%

5.1% 7.1%

14.1% 16.1% 14.0% 12.2% 15.5% 13.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012

Percent Existing Condo & Townhouse Units Sold by Time on Market2

0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days



Apartment Market: Details

Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4

ZIP CODE UNIT RATES AVERAGE RATES UNITS

Studio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath 3 Bed

Furn

ish

ed

Un

furn

ish

ed

Furn

ish

ed

Un

furn

ish

ed

Furn

ish

ed

Un

furn

ish

ed

Furn

ish

ed

Un

furn

ish

ed

Furn

ish

ed

Un

furn

ish

ed

Rent Vacancy Total Units Vacant Units

89002 . . . 701 . 665 . 951 . 1021 827 6.1% 354 22

89005 . . . 600 . 663 . . . 863 708 . 417 .

89011 . . . 781 . 854 . 952 . 996 901 10.1% 887 89

89012 . . . 757 . 800 . 925 . 1105 902 9.0% 1943 174

89014 . 593 . 675 . 756 . 821 . 974 803 8.7% 5626 492

89015 . . . 611 . 679 . 719 . 830 713 9.3% 2488 230

89030 . . . 528 . 556 . 635 . 735 616 10.4% 2349 244

89031 . . . . . . . 805 . 949 878 9.1% 1084 98

89032 . 658 . 688 . . . 800 . 904 790 8.6% 2217 191

89052 . . . 766 . 840 . 937 . 1131 910 9.5% 2666 254

89074 . . . 785 . . . 921 . 1127 905 9.5% 2758 262

89081 . . . 709 . 838 . 840 . 986 853 7.8% 1540 120

89084 . . . 726 . 775 . 915 . 1082 859 8.1% 580 47

89086 . . . 685 . 818 . 813 . 927 802 9.2% 1107 102

89101 543 455 598 511 . 606 799 643 . 695 554 12.0% 9793 1178

89102 . 531 . 568 . 607 . 710 . 787 638 10.2% 9019 917

89103 . 572 698 622 788 678 818 763 . 897 710 8.9% 6699 597

89104 422 413 450 501 . 595 . 645 . 749 565 11.4% 3176 363

89106 600 379 665 518 . 544 . 664 . 829 614 10.6% 4164 440

89107 . 462 . 536 . 598 . 649 . 826 623 9.2% 2728 252

89108 . 494 . 621 . 638 . 750 . 898 721 10.4% 8764 910

89109 499 498 625 583 . 568 . 704 . 695 631 19.2% 2778 534

89110 . . . 546 . 595 . 626 . 758 631 8.7% 3819 333

89113 . . . 797 . . . 963 . 1214 938 8.9% 901 80

89115 520 445 650 533 . 564 . 633 . 738 613 10.2% 5952 609

89117 . . . 754 . 858 . 866 . 1040 862 8.9% 7883 700

89118 . 515 . 710 . 712 . 879 . 995 810 8.5% 2736 233

89119 541 522 604 596 650 602 . 762 . 898 680 9.9% 13472 1330

89120 . 572 . 623 . 698 . 745 . 897 730 10.1% 2217 225

89121 . 491 809 573 . 620 . 688 . 796 660 9.5% 6864 655

89122 466 . 705 621 956 790 . 748 . 895 732 9.0% 4946 445

89123 . 596 . 734 . 1105 . 868 . 1083 854 9.0% 4402 395

89128 . . . 681 . . . 782 . 911 788 8.4% 2390 200

89129 . 658 . 663 . 915 795 829 . 1028 795 9.5% 1930 183

89130 . . . 608 . . . 710 . 900 725 6.6% 624 41

89131 . . . 685 . . . 793 . 1012 830 9.6% 347 33

89135 . . . 875 . . . 1112 . 1224 1059 8.1% 412 33

89138 . . . 1028 . 1098 . 1285 . 1415 1206 9.5% 1362 130

89139 . . . 846 . 935 . 1043 . 1185 1008 9.7% 1385 134

89141 . . . 830 . 935 . 1005 . 1210 995 9.7% 340 33

89142 . . . 574 . 599 . 686 . 804 672 11.3% 1646 185

89144 . . . 896 . . . 1054 . 1254 1101 9.0% 480 43

89145 . . . 752 . 737 . 918 . 1079 933 8.5% 1073 91

89146 . 410 . 631 . 592 . 773 . 963 759 8.2% 2261 185

89147 . . . 767 . 820 . 905 . 1012 896 8.4% 3130 263

89148 . . . 862 . 996 . 990 . 1069 964 9.1% 1839 167

89149 . . . 749 . 976 . 999 . 885 885 9.8% 1842 181

89156 . . . 571 . . . 688 . 0 662 11.0% 999 110

89166 . . . 754 . 860 . 982 . 0 905 8.9% 144 13

89169 596 465 673 551 . 649 . 701 . 0 625 9.7% 9151 889

89178 . . . 825 . 1060 . 1060 . 0 981 9.1% 539 49

89183 . . . 775 . 875 . 884 . 0 888 8.0% 3306 263

METRO LV 532 506 655 650 828 683 806 799 . 942 747 9.5% 161529 15361

" . " Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes.



Apartment Market: Details

Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4

89124

89165

89161

89005

89166

89115

89122

89015

89011

89052

89131

89141

89138

89119

89044

89129

89149

89179

89113

89012

89118

89110

89139 89123

89002

89031

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

89074

89121

89178

89148

89086

89087

89084

89085

89014

8908189130

89120

89147

89134

89183

89103

8915689128

89107 89101

89106

89102

89104 8914289146

89144

89145

89109

89143

89169

89004

Vacancy Q3 2012

Data suppressed

0.01 - 9.00

9.01 - 10.00

10.01 - 11.00

11.01 - 12.00

12.01 - 13.00

13.01 - 20.00

89124

89165

89161

89005

89166

89115

89122

89015

89011

89052

89131

89141

89138

89119

89044

89129

89149

89179

89113

89012

89118

89110

89139 89123

89002

89031

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

89074

89121

89178

89148

89086

89087

89084

89085

89014

8908189130

89120

89147

89134

89183

89103

8915689128

89107 89101

89106

89102

89104 8914289146

89144

89145

89109

89143

89169

89004

Rent Q3 2012

Data suppressed

1 - 650

651 - 750

751 - 850

851 - 950

951 - 1210



Local Population and Unemployment Indicators

3rdQuarter,

2010

4thQuarter,

2010

1stQuarter,

2011

2ndQuarter,

2011

3rdQuarter,

2011

4thQuarter,

2011

1stQuarter,

2012

2ndQuarter,

2012

3rdQuarter,

2012

Quarterly 14,604 12,783 14,257 14,645 16,450 13,882 16,057 16,450 17,612

Year-to-Date 38,365 51,148 14,257 28,902 45,352 59,234 16,057 32,507 50,119

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses4

2ndQuarter,

2011

3rdQuarter,

2011

4thQuarter,

2011

1stQuarter,

2012

2ndQuarter,

2012

3rdQuarter,

2012

Percent from California 31.5% 30.3% 30.6% 31.9% 31.8% 31.5%

Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 14.3% 14.4% 16.0% 15.1% 16.0% 15.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories4

Unemployment5

Las Vegas

Q3 2011 13.9%

Q4 2011 13.5%

Q1 2012 12.8%

Q2 2012 12.2%

Q3 2012 11.9%

United States

Q3 2011 9.1%

Q4 2011 8.7%

Q1 2012 8.3%

Q2 2012 8.2%

Q3 2012 8.1%



Housing Market: Regional Comparisons

3rd Quarter,2011

4th Quarter,2011

1st Quarter,2012

2nd Quarter,2012

3rd Quarter,2012

Las Vegas, NV 94.38 90.81 90.44 93.11 95.55

Phoenix, AZ 99.38 100.20 105.70 112.79 117.87

San Diego, CA 152.39 151.27 151.33 153.54 155.88

Los Angeles, CA 166.87 162.98 162.19 166.37 170.55

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Case Shiller® Index in Selected Western Cities6

3rd Quarter,2011

4th Quarter,2011

1st Quarter,2012

2nd Quarter,2012

3rd Quarter,2012

Las Vegas, NV -2.32% -3.78% -0.40% 2.95% 2.62%

Phoenix, AZ -1.93% 0.82% 5.49% 6.70% 4.50%

San Diego, CA -1.78% -0.74% 0.04% 1.46% 1.52%

Los Angeles, CA -1.79% -2.33% -0.48% 2.58% 2.51%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%Quarterly Change of Case Shiller® Index6



National Housing Market Conditions7

Latest

quarter

Previous

quarter

Same quarter

previous year

% change from

previous quarter

% change

from last year

HOUSING PRODUCTION

Permits 834 756 629 10.37 32.52

Starts 786 736 614 6.84 28.01

Under construction 497 475 416 4.78 19.46

Completions 679 630 617 7.67 9.99

Manufactured (mobile) home shipments 53 55 51 -2.44 3.90

HOUSING MARKET

New homes sold 377 362 298 3.96 26.26

New homes for sale 144 143 164 0.70 -11.99

Month's supply of new homes 5 5 7 -4.17 -29.59

Existing homes sold 4683 4537 4247 3.23 10.28

Existing homes for sale 2373 2447 3023 -3.00 -21.50

Month's supply of existing homes 6 6 9 -5.67 -28.52

Median new home price 242900 238700 223500 1.76 8.68

Average new home price 287900 282700 263000 1.84 9.47

Constant house quality new home price 29200 282700 276200 -89.67 -89.43

Median existing home price 185533 180933 169233 2.54 9.63

Average existing home price 233767 229833 217567 1.71 7.45

Composite housing affordability index 189 187 182 0.92 4.03

Fixed-rate housing affordability index 187 184 180 1.45 4.20

Apartments completed 26600 15800 13000 68.35 104.62

Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months 67 60 51 11.67 31.37

Median asking rent 1032 1065 1037 -3.10 -0.48

Manufactured (mobile) home placements 48 48 47 -0.69 1.41

Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) 63000 61300 61200 2.77 2.94

Builders housing market index 37.3 27.0 14.7 38.27 154.55

Builders current sales activity 38.7 28.7 14.7 34.88 163.64

Builders future sales expectations 45.7 32.7 19.0 39.80 140.35

Builders prospective buyer traffic 29.3 21.3 12.0 37.50 144.44

HOUSING FINANCE

Conventional fixed-rate 30 year 3.54 3.80 4.31 -6.76 -17.87

Conventional ARMs 2.65 2.76 2.91 -3.86 -8.92

Conventional fixed-rate 15 year 2.83 3.04 3.49 -6.91 -18.83

FHA applications received 167748 156463 129034 7.21 30.00

FHA total endorsements 115423 110165 94662 4.77 21.93

FHA purchase endorsements 66005 64537 70245 2.27 -6.04

VA guaranties 48933 48860 32624 0.15 49.99

PMI certificates 40232 33392 25034 20.48 60.71

HOUSING INVESTMENT

GDP (in billions of dollars) 15776 15586 15163 1.22 4.04

Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) 388 373 336 4.08 15.41

RFI percent of GDP 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.82 10.93

HOUSING INVENTORY

All housing units 132839 132718 132353 0.09 0.37

Occupied units 114695 114200 113548 0.43 1.01

Owner occupied 75076 74832 75251 0.33 -0.23

Rental vacancy rate 8.6 8.6 9.8 0.00 -12.24



Housing Market: Case-Shiller® Home Price Index

Sources: 1Local building permit-issuing agencies and State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 2Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes

sold by local builders. 3CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions–RealQuest data base on new and existing recorded home

sales. 4Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles. 5The Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices: Home Price Index Levels - Seasonally Adjusted, April 2012 (http://www.standardpoors.com). 7U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st Quarter, 2012 (http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/ushmc/ushmc.html).

Note: As of the 1st Quarter, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect

only single-family housing.

©Copyright 2012 Report on Housing-Market Conditions

Readers may reproduce the publication’s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for

Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

U.S. (10-City Composite)

0

50

100

150

200

250

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

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20

00

20

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20

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20

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09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Ind

ex:

Jan

uar

y 2

00

0 =

10

0

Case-Shiller® Home Price Index: January 1987 to September 2012

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices http://www.standardandpoors.com/

Las Vegas, NV

Las Vegas long-run

'equilibrium' trend based

on Jan. 1987 to Sept.

2000



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