CBA of Mega projects : some teachings from the MOSE project · Failure or catastrophe (Jonkmann ,...
Transcript of CBA of Mega projects : some teachings from the MOSE project · Failure or catastrophe (Jonkmann ,...
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CBA of Mega projects: some teachings from
the MOSE project
Jérôme Massiani: Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia
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I. Introduction: high tides and MOSE project II. Extrinsic limitations III. Intrinsic limitations
Summary
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Acqua Alta
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V e n e z i a a l t i m e t r i a C o m u n e d i V e n e z i a
I s t i tuz ion e cen t ro prev is ion i e segna la z ion i ma ree
I n co l la bora z ion e con I nsu la spa
a cura d i Leona rdo B oa to , Pa o lo Ca nest re l l i , Lu isa Fa cch in e Rudj Toda ro a gg io rna mento 2009 A l t imet r ia I nsu la
Various levels of Acqua Alta
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Mobi le gates + Local defences
MOSE : principle
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A set of interventions
Opere mobili
Difese locali
Interventi diffusi
Fonte : Nostra elaborazione su base Comune di Venezia p/162
• Opening of the fish farms,*
• Reduction of water depth -10, -12, -8 at the inlets LMC*
• Reconstruction of velme, barene e dossi*
• Closing of the straight section of the Malamocco Marghera canal and reopening of the Fiesolo canal
• Changes in the orientation of the external dikes in the inlets.
Comune di Venezia 1998, p.II 168
110 cm
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I. Introduction: high tides and MOSE project II. Extrinsic limitations III. Intrinsic limitations
Summary
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limits
CBA made by promoter Lack of publicity
warranties
External experts Scrutinized by Colleggio internazionale Commissione del commune di
Venezia Ministero Tribunali
The search for an independent evaluation
Anchoring bias
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Institutionally : yes General public : ?
CBA legitimized ???
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CBA outcome (mrd Lire 1998)
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III.Intrinsic limitations
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III.Intrinsic limitations General modelling approach Some visible limitations “Conventional” and “banalist” use of CBA Defocalisation
Summary
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2 - Impact on mobility 3 - Damages to stored goods
Discretisation
Discretisation 1 - Sea rise
1 – Natura non fecit saltum 2 – Arbitrarietà 3 – Fuorviante
Dose response function
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III.Intrinsic limitations General modelling approach Some visible limitations “Conventional” and “banalist” use of CBA Defocalisation
Summary
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Costs for harbour activity Costs for reduced touristic
incomes Tourist Fontini et al 2010 AA > 120 cm reduces presence of tourists
in Venice by 3516 units. (t=1,68 R2 = 0,58, months used as controls)
Cost of damages to ZIC
Some items missing
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Scenario definition
Opere mobili
Difese locali
Interventi diffusi
“Situazione attuale”
(p. 162) o
“opzione 0”: “solo interventi in corso”
(p. 165)
Fonte : Nostra elaborazione su base Comune di Venezia p.162 e 168
Dovrebbero essere nello sc. di riferimento
Vs.
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Definizione of alternative scenarios
Opere mobili
Difese locali
Interventi diffusi
Opere mobili
Paratoie a spinta di
galeggiamento
Paratoie a gravità
Barriere mobile gonfiabili
Navi porta, mezzi auto affondanti
Barriere mobile a spinta
meccanica
Nagasaki e Ramspol (NL)
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Failure or catastrophe (Jonkmann, et al. 2004) NL : evaluation incl. probability of dike failure
Discrete representation of uncertainty Limits technical possibilities of analysis
Risk and uncertainty
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III.Intrinsic limitations General modelling approach Some visible limitations “Conventional” and “banalist” use of CBA Defocalisation
Summary
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GE vs. PE Modern CBA (Drèze and Stern) neglected Arbitrary set of markets
No known definition of “standing”
Old fashioned view of actualisation
“Conventional”, “banalist” use of CBA
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III.Intrinsic limitations General modelling approach Some visible limitations “Conventional” and “banalist” use of CBA Defocalisation
Summary
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Quotidianism Concentrates on tangible Damage to stored goods
No evaluation of environmental externalities Compensation measures
Close to direct users experience Maintenance costs Mobility hindrances Other techniques neglected : hedonic pricing
Defocalisation …
Defocalisation
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Risul tat i provvisor i
Rilevanza valutativa (miliardi €) e sforzo analitico
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
costructioncosts
lagoonshoreline
low waterafter
flooding
saltaggression
drainagesystems
short termcosts
(singleevent
related)
min interm. max
Num. pp.
Mld €
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Cost ingenuity pseudo neutralism
F. Decarolis e G. Palumbo
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Correction factors for costs
Source: Flyvbjerg, Bent & COWI (2004), “Procedures for dealing with Optimism Bias in Transport Planning: Guidance Document”, The British Department for Transport, London, June 2004.
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Cost overruns Risk Analysis in Transporta t ion Infrastructure Investments
Berechman e Wu 2006
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F. Decarol is e G. Palumbo
La rinegoziazione dei contratti di lavori pubblici: un’analisi teorica e empirica,
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I. Introduction II. Extrinsic limitations III. Intrinsic limitations
General modelling approach Some visible limitations “Conventional” and “banalist” use of CBA Defocalisation
IV. Conclusion
Summary
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Quotidianism E. Weil
Use of “conventional” approach Risk and uncertainty Pseudo neutralism of cost ingenuity main cause of
distortion
Conclusions for transport economics
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Thank you for your attention