Catholic Trends

Hello: )

Where Catholicism is Headed:Seven Trends that Will Aect

Your Parish, Ministry and Personal Faith

The Plan for Our Time Together

u Our planu Global trendsu Trends in England/Walesu My notes: [email protected] Q&A

The Church is not a manufactured item. She is the living seed of God that must be allowed to grow and ripen.

Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI

What We Mean by TrendThe things that make good headlines are on the surface of the stream of life, and they distract us from the slower, impalpable, imponderable movementsthat work below the surface and penetrate to the depths. But it is really these deeper, slower movements that make history

-Arnold J. Toynbee,

British Historian

Cited in The Future Church

A Few Disclaimers I speak from an American perspective,

however

We will be moving quicklyregrettably. Why?

After each trend, Ill make the three connections

This is very much a conversation

We will have a Q&A after

A Few More Disclaimersu Resist the initial urge to decide whether a trend

is positive or negative

u No official Catholic trends agency

u Some of this will be bad news; Some will be good news; All will be interesting

u Truth sets us free

u Catholics should always ultimately have hope Ecclesia in Europa

Sources

PewResearchCenter

THE OFFICIAL CATHOLIC DIRECTORY

Sources

Experience in the Church

u 24 years of pastoral, publishing, and ministry experience at the parish, diocesan, and national levels

Survey: Country We administered a survey to over 740 Catholics

throughout the UK

England & Wales75%

Scotland17%

Northern Ireland

8%

Survey: Age

13-24 years

25-34 years old

35-44 years old

45-54 years old

55-64 years old

65-74 years old

75 years or older

Survey: Mass Attendance

Weekly79%

1-2 times per month

7%

3-5 times per year7%

1-2 times per year3%

Never4%

Interview Process We interviewed 24 people throughout the UK who

have varying perspectives and backgrounds within the Church:

1 bishop

2 religious

1 parish priest

1 deacon

1 consecrated lay person

2 Catholic reporters

2 religion think tank researchers

4 Catholic scholars

5 lay diocesan employees

4 involved in various ministries

A partridge in a pear tree

Trend #1:Shifting Demographics

Shifting Demographics

General World Trends: Populations of countries have

shifted, are shifting, and will continue to shift due to immigration, birth rates, and refugee situations

As the Church is global, these shifts will have great implications for the life of the Church

Shifting Demographics

In Europe, the Catholic population in 2050 is expected to be about 5 percent smaller than it is today, due to below replacement rate fertility and immigration, adding few Catholics to the overall population

-CARA

Birth Rate Trends in UK

Source: www.ons.gov.uk

Shifting Demographics (contd)

Source: The Wisdom Years, data taken from the U.S Census Bureau (2008)

Shifting Demographics (contd)u A Church that has

historically invested a large share of its pastoral energy in the young now has to cope, beginning in the North, with the most rapidly aging population in human history

-John Allen


In 2050, U.S. Census: U.S. will have more Spanish speakers than any Spanish speaking country in the world, including Mexico (US Census Bureau).

In the U.S., Arabic and Urdu (Pakistans national language) are the fastest-growing foreign languages spoken at home (Center for Immigrant Studies).


The Demographics of the Church Are Shifting The global Catholic population has grown by 57%

since 1980 (CARA)

Catholicism is gaining/holding ground in Sub-Saharan African territories, China, and the Philippines (WSJ)


Catholicism is losing ground in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America (WSJ).

Since 1980: Europe +6% Africa +238% (CARA)

Since Vatican II, France has seen an 18.5% decrease in the percent of population that is Catholic (WSJ).


The Church of the global south is becoming more well-represented in the Vatican.

13 of the 20 new cardinals appointed by Pope Francis in 2015 were from Latin America, Africa, or Asia (WSJ).

By contrast, from 1914-1922, Benedict XV appointed 1 non-European cardinal out of 32 cardinal appointments (National Geographic)

The Demography of Church Hierarchy Is Shifting


Under any conceivable scenario, Catholic realignment does not augur a future in which the South simply replaces the North, but rather one in which ideas, movements, and controversies radiate out from multiple centers in both North and South

-John Allen (emphasis added)


Source: Christianity Today, June 2015

54% drop 46% drop 38% drop

60% drop

Confirmations

In 2000, there were more Catholic baptisms in the Philippines alone than in France, Spain, Italy, and Poland combined

-Allen

u The Faith is Europe, and Europe is the Faith

-Hilaire Belloc

In broad terms, Southern(hemisphere) Catholics are robustly orthodox. Theyre not interested in metaphoricalinterpretations of the Resurrection or the Eucharist;they have no problem with belief in miracles....

-Allen

The Net Result For the Progressives For the Orthodox

How do shifting demographics affect

Your parish? Shifts will save some parishes, but not others. Dioceses

tough decisions to make. Foreign pastors ministering in parishes

Your ministry? Make tough investments in producing resources in other

languages Extreme secularization evangelization (of Catholics)

becomes even more necessary

Your faith life? All called to stretch beyond comfort zone Be open to other cultural expressions of Catholicism

Trend #2:"Francis Effect

The "Francis Effect

Popularity: Oct. 7th (Gallup Poll)

General U.S. Public 28% more positive 6% more negative

U.S. Catholics 50% more positive 5% more negative

The "Francis Effect

The Divine Plan Philosopher St. John Paul II TheologianBenedict XVI PastorPope Francis

Why? Pastoral Approach

Lead with love/Jesus Ad Intra vs. Ad Extra The Theology of Encounter Mercy

The Francis Effect on Church Hierarchy

u Has appointed:u 13 percent of the

worlds active bishops

u 26 percent of the voting members of the College of Cardinals who would elect his successor.

Examples

With whom isthis most associated?

Discussing and resolving issues concerning the internal life of the Church

Primarily concerned with

-Womens ordination-Biblical criticism

- Our relationship with Islam/anti-conversionlaws-Tackling poverty or tribalgenocide

Engaging the broader religious and social questions outside of theChurch.

Generally the focus of the global North Church, and bishops.

Generally the focus of the global South Church, and bishops

Ad Intra (from within) Ad Extra (from a boundary)

-The Future Church

How does the Francis Effect affect

Your parish? Increased focus on welcoming those on peripheries Challenge for clergy to walk more closely with flock

Your ministry? Resurgence of social justice ministries More success than in past decades in the area of

evangelization

Your faith life? Left and right called out of their comfort zones to a

more integrated Catholicism Views of the papacy will be altered

Trend #3: Rise of Islam

Rise of Islam (contd)

%

%

Rise of Islam (contd) Muslims 6% of the European population. By 2050,

Muslims will make up 10% of the overall European population

-Pew, CARA

Median age: European Christians 42 European Muslims 32

-Pew

The religious zeal of many Muslims also holds up an uncomfortable mirror for Western Christians, revealing the extent to which their own spiritual force may have been sapped by secularization

-Allen

A Church whose primary interreligious relationship for the last forty years has been with Judaism now finds itself struggling to come to terms with a newly assertive Islam, not just in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, but in its own European background (Allen, 1).

Islam is attractive because of its simplicity. It is stark and strong like the desert from which it came. A Muslim think he knows exactly where he stands in relation to Godthus the growth rate

-Fundamentals of the Faith

Peter Kreeft on Islam:

How does the growth of Islam affect

Your parish? Increase in theological and apologetical understanding

of Islam (seminars, pamphlets, etc.) Shared opposition to secularism

Your ministry? Enriched understanding of what Islam is and how to

respond Possible collaboration with more moderate Muslims

Your faith life Be inspired to deeper and more faithful practice of your

own faith Dont be afraid to share with Muslims your story of faith in

Jesus

Trend # 4: Rise of Evangelical Catholicism

1) A clear embrace of traditional Catholic thought, speech, and practice, the usual word for which is orthodoxy.

2) Eagerness to proclaim ones Catholic identity to the world, emphasizing its implications for culture, society and politics;

3) Faith seen as a matter of personal choice rather than culturalinheritance

The Rise of Evangelical Catholicism (cont'd)

John Allen, in The Future Church, writes: Beginning with the election of John Paul II in1978 Catholicism has become steadily moreevangelicaluncompromising and unabashedly itself, moreinterested in evangelizing culture than accommodating it.

The Rise of Evangelical Catholicism (contd)


Observed by left, right, and center

A noticeable movement toward intentional discipleship

The Rise of EvangelicalCatholicism (contd)

Allen proposes that Evangelical Catholicism embraces a strategy to ensure that the weakening of religious faith and practice in the secular world is notreproduced inside the Church.

The Rise of EvangelicalCatholicism (contd)

According to Weigel: Not a way of being Catholic that adapts catechetical practices or modes of worship of Protestant churchesNot a movement within Catholicism, or sect, or new kind of Catholic elite.Not a substitute for Roman Catholicism.

Its a movement, according to Weigel, that moves the Church out of the stagnant shallows of institutional management and towards a dynamic, intentional Christian discipleship and proclamation.Leo XIII

Vatican II / Pope St. John XXII Pope St. John Paul II & Benedict XVI

Pope Francis


A noticeable presence inministry and policy, and growing within diocesan structures

Due to shift to southernhemisphere Unique combination of

orthodoxy with a social justice emphasis


How does evangelical Catholicism affect

Your parish Not be afraid of more intentional Catholics Need for solid Catechesis that reaches all ages

Your ministry? Ministries are being infused with new vision, hope, and

success Need to be careful to avoid us vs. them mentality within

ministries Your faith life?

Rub shoulders with Catholics with whom you might be uncomfortable

Challenges our own commitment to the Faith.

Trend #5:

New Evangelization

New ardor, new approaches, and new methods for the sake of a New Evangelization

Bottom up, top down

Diocese oces now dedicated to the New Evangelization

Apostolates and Ministries

Francis is a continuation

New Evangelization

In the UK

u Of 13-44 year olds we surveyed, 79% have encountered the term New Evangelizationu Sample size: 239

u Of 45-75+ year olds, only 66% have encountered the term u Sample size: 428

How does the New Evangelization affect

Your parish? The Churchs foundational identity is missionary Be creative about new ways to reach and draw people

back to church Promote a should do and can do mentality to your

staff and parishioners

Your ministry? All ministries need to have an underlying posture of mission Ground your ministries in prayer

Your faith life? Your baptismal call means you are called to bear fruit Be prepared to give testimony of what God has done in

your life

Trend #6: New Savvy

New Savvy

People from business world, converts, and theyoung

The people of this world Lk 16:8

New boldness, new creativity because secularism is winning the day

New Savvy (cont'd)

Bishop BarronsCatholicism

Catholics ComeHome

Chosen

Altaration

Rebuilt

New Savvy (cont'd)

Our Lady of Walsingham

How does the New Savvy affect Your parish?

Do not be afraid of secular strategies and energetic personalities Look for people within parish who have secular skillsets Invest in updating website; Use social media to connect with

parishioners

Your ministry? Work with people whom you may theologically disagree

Fight the tendency to do things the ways ministries have been done

Find best practices from the secular world (financial, marketing, etc.) Your faith life?

Pray about what gifts you possess and can offer to the Church Bring your talents and ideas to the powers-that-be

Trend #7A Big Picture Trend?

A Snapshot of the Church in the West1965 2014

The Discerning and Hopeful Church

(1960 1970)

The UncertainChurch

(1965 1980)

The SecularizedChurch(1970 2000 to Present)The Rising Church(1990 Present)

The SmallerBut More Intentional

Church?

The Internally Solidifying Church(1980 Present)

Vatican II Cultural changes Move away from

rote Catholicism

Too much change, tooquickly

Everything seems up for grabs

Decline in vocations Increased lay involvement

Clerical leadership in West appeared uncertain

Rapid decline in churchparticipation

St. John Paul II andBenedict XVI

New Catechism & Code ofCanon Law

Encyclicals

New apostolatesenthusiastic for Faith

Vatican II settling in and knowing ofwho we really are

The Refocused Church (Present)

Pope Francis Self-reverential must giveway

Lead with love

Abuse Scandal

UK Church Trends

Trend #1:Increased Lay Involvement

u We will see more lay leadership in parishes, as a result of the priest shortage and the call to the New Evangelization

69% of survey respondents stated that they are aware of a growing number of lay Catholics helping lead and serve within their parishes.

Survey: Lay Involvement

69.2%

51.8%

38.5%

18.0%

I am aware of a growing number of lay (non-ordained) Catholics helping lead and serve within their parishes.

I am actively involved in the life of my parish (e.g., particiating in parish ministries or charitable outreach programs, helping distribute communion, lectoring at mass, etc.).

I am involved in a Catholic ministry or organization independent of my parish.

None of the Above

*746 respondents answered this question.

u Of those involved in parish life, 58%are also involved in ministries or Catholic organizations outside of their parishes

u 63% of 18-34 year olds who responded are actively involved in their parish

Trend #1:Increased Lay Involvement (contd)

Trend #2:A Leaner Church

u Continued decrease in Mass attendance and numbers of Catholics, but increased clarity and commitment of those who identify as Catholic

20/23 of those we interviewed shared this sentiment:I think many people will stop identifying as Catholics, and the ones who remain will do so because they are clear about what they believe. We will become a mustard-seed church.

Figures used were gathered from the Pastoral & Population Statistics of the Catholic Community of England and Wales, 2011 and 2012: Summary

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

2011 Catholic Population and Mass Attendance

Est. Catholic PopulationMass Attendance

24%25%25%

19%18%

22%23%

22%19%

20%15%

18%16% 21%

22%22%

19%17%

23%20%

22%26%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

W E S T M I N S TER

B I R M I N G HA M

C L I F T O N

HA L L A M

L A N C A S T E R

L I V E R P O O L

N O R T HA M P T O N

P L Y M O U T H

S A L F O R D

S O U T HW A R K

C A R D I F F * * *

PERCENT OF CATHOLICS WHO ATTEND MASS (2011)

Figures used were gathered from the Pastoral & Population Statistics of the Catholic Community of England and Wales, 2011 and 2012: Summary

Trend #3:Changes in Transmission of Faith

u The transmission of the faith will be harder to accomplish in Catholic schoolsgrowing pressure will mount on the parishes to transmit faith through new methods of catechesis.

u There has been a push against faith schools who are actively trying to transmit their faith to the students. The government is concerned about radicalization and indoctrination in certain Muslim schools, but the government has to make policies that apply to all faith schools in this regard."

u They cannot just target Muslim schools, so they may be applying more restrictions to Catholic schools in the future, as well.

-Director of a think tank that researches the intersection of religion and society

Trend #3:Changes in Transmission of Faith

(contd)

u Parents will need to be catechized to take on a more active role in transmitting the faith

Trend # 4:Increasing Tension with Culture

u If identity of Catholic Church in the UK sharpens, UK Catholicism will likely become more high tension, and there will be more pronounced friction between the Church and mainstream UK culture

u This may result in growth

I think that many practicing Catholics have a sense that it will become increasingly difficult for them to practice their faith within mainstream society in the coming years. I dont think that sentiment was present twenty or thirty years ago.

-A Catholic journalist in the UK

Trend #5: Immigrant Catholics

u Immigrant Catholics will play large role in life of the UK Church.

In my parish, most British Catholics are older than sixtyI am a rare exception. Most of the younger congregation is Filipino or Nigerian, and they bring a lively dimension to our parish. Most of those who receive the Sacraments of Initiation are also Filipino or Nigerian.

-A 20-something British male from a parish northeast of London

Micro Trends Small increases in vocations to priesthood and

religious life

Increased focus on social justice ad extra approach

Increase in Eucharistic adoration and Marian devotions

Attraction to religious movements and lay communities

Growth in ministries led by and directed towards young adults beginning to see new savvy

Rising interest in the Traditionalist Latin Mass Some increase in homeschooling Push for parish-renewal

Some concluding thoughts

Its not really a question of which way the Church will go, but which ways

-Allen

My Thoughtsu Burgeoning of dynamic orthodoxy

u Vertical is solidified, so now we can get to the horizontal more intentionally

u Orthodox Catholics will move to left towards actionu Progressive Catholics will move to right or leave

Churchu Contd implementation of Vatican II dynamicsu Rediscovery of traditional elements of Catholicismu Fewer Catholics, clearer in identificationu Increasing comfort with harnessing gifts in secular world

for sake of Gospelu More lay people working in the Church greater

financial investment will be neededu More pain in wider culture, more turning to Christianity

to heal the pain

Hope is the Essential Word

u Why I am here:u Heritage, heroism, and hopeu Momentary amnesia can it be cured?u God is making a tapestryu Secular humanism vs. Christian humanism

u Begin with Ecclesia in Europa

Catholic Trends

Documents

Transcript of Catholic Trends