L category Report

Chapter Content

May 2015

Loughborough/Bradford

Chapter listing:

Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview

Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey, Ultra Light Vehicle Research Group (ULV RG)

Chapter 2 Regulation (homologation, legislation) and opportunities for UK

Huw Davies and Paul Nieuwenhuis, Cardiff University

Chapter 3 L category segmentation: market and environment

Allan Hutchinson, Oxford Brookes University

Chapter 4 Vehicle Safety and Compatibility

Christophe Bastien, Coventry University

Chapter 5 Worldwide activity

Simon Bailey and Kambiz Ebrahimi, ULV RG

Chapter 6 Consumer adoption

Richard Barrett, Coventry University

Chapter 7 Economic potential of the L category vehicle market

Donato Masi, Warwick University

Chapter 8 Full energy, local pollution and environmental life cycle assessment

Beatrice Smyth, Mark Kearns and Aoife Foley, Queen’s University Belfast

Chapter 9 Summary, Conclusion, Remarks and Recommendations

Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey, ULV RG

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Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview

by Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey, ULV RG

1.1 Background and history car size, power and mass increasing over the decades

(status symbols, but younger generation now shunning car ownership) microcar boom of the 1950s-60s (reasons and lessons) L category sub-categories and examples

1.2 Reasons / need for this Report what L category vehicles could offer other countries currently ahead of UK

1.3 Energy efficiency overview inherent: mass, rolling resistance figures: kWh/100km comparisons with M1 category EVs

1.4 Traffic Congestion damage to economy (wasted time) and health (air pollution, stress) amelioration potential via L category

1.5 Legislation and incentives (for manufacturers and consumers) emissions, safety L-category excluded from both EU fleet averages and UK “plug-in” consumer grant

1.6 Future possibilities new designs autonomous vehicles multi-modal options (e.g. cost-effective motorail; last-mile cargo)

1.7 Introducing the subsequent chapters

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Chapter 2 Regulation (homologation, legislation) and opportunities for UK

by Huw Davies and Paul Nieuwenhuis, Cardiff University

Objective: explain current legislation; then identify areas where the UK could lead.

2.1 Purpose of regulation (problem statement)a) Provide Uniformity / Enhance Safety / Improve Environment

Provide general background to regulatory drivers and changeb) Approaches > self-certification (FMVSS) / type-approval (EU)

Discuss the advantages/disadvantages to the two approaches c) Application to road transport > visible and/or evidence based problems

Discuss low visibility of L category due to market share and general diversity

2.2 Application to L category (determination of key characteristics)a) Uniformity > Progress to date / Issues

Categorisation of L category vehicles (national and international – problem of diversity)

Regulation on approval and market surveillance of two- or three-wheel vehicles and quadricycles (scope and limits of this regulation)

Identify areas that we wish to cover (three and four wheelers) and those that we would leave (2-wheelers?)

b) Safety > Progress to date / Issues Accident figures to highlight contribution and also problem areas Countermeasures to show what can and cannot be realistically achieved (provide

direction for regulation convergence) Regulation differences between M1and L category (show what has been

achieved and what can filter down)c) Environmental > Progress to date / Issues

Contribution to climate change (the role of L category and the present / proposed regulations)

Application of emission standards by sub-category (the role of L category and the present / proposed regulations)

2.3 Regulatory convergence (development of assessment methods)a) Uniformity > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK

Identification of areas where the present regulation is limited / absent / restrictive (both from a technical and economic perspective) and where the UK can contribute

b) Safety > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK Identification of areas where regulation would contribute to improved safety –

functional and crashworthiness (based on cost-benefit prioritisation) and how the UK is positioned to lead

c) Environmental > discuss the options for convergence and the opportunity for UK Identification of areas where regulation would contribute to meeting

environmental targets (based on cost-benefit prioritisation) and how the UK is positioned to lead

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Chapter 3 L category segmentation: market and environment

by Allan Hutchinson, Oxford Brookes University

Objective: to provide a market based perspective on L category segmentation, as this does not necessarily reflect the legal sub-categories. To provide an indication of whole life energy.

3.1 Introduction

a) Legal v market segmentation and overall potential (urban, leisure)

b) Drivetrain options (IC, electric)

c) Energy and emissions

3.2 General market segmentation and commercial applications

a) Stand-on 2-wheelers (leisure, commercial).........................for context

b) Sit-on 2- and 3-wheelers (personal, goods).........................for context

c) Sit-in and covered vehicles (2- and 3- and 4-wheelers)........key focus

d) Others, e.g. for transportation of goods..............................key focus

3.3 Barriers to widespread adoption of L-cat vehicles for transportation of people and goods

a) Technical – e.g. drivetrain, safety*, cost and public perception**

b) Legal – regulation and standards

c) Institutional – traditional OEM supply, materials, energy supply

d) Incentive requirements – market stimulation

3.4 Whole life energy considerations

a) Vehicle materials and manufacturing energies (inc. lightweighting, flexible local manufacturing)

b) In-use energy and emissions (comparisons of pedelecs, motorbikes, quadricycles, micro cars, future vehicles. Specific comparisons with M1 vehicles. Renewable energies)

c) End-of-life, remanufacturing and reuse concepts

d) Overall efficiencies

3.5 Summary

* overview only - greater detail in WP4

** overview only - greater detail in WP6

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Chapter 4 Vehicle Safety and Compatibility

by Christophe Bastien, Coventry University

4.1 Accident landscape and emerging safety technologies

4.2 Existing safety test assessment legal consumer

4.3 Challenges of safety integration phases of integration

4.3 Proposal of safety test for three and four-wheeled L category vehicles

Awaiting further details from Christophe.

Technical specification and performance- speed- safety- size- mass- powertrain options

Infrastructure requirements

What role could L category vehicles play in transport systems of the future?e.g. new designs, autonomous vehicles

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Chapter 5 Worldwide activity

by Simon Bailey and Kambiz Ebrahimi, ULV RG

Objective: to provide an overview of worldwide activity in the L category sector, with comparisons for applicability in the UK.

5.1 Evaluation of the following topics: vehicle types and classification (legal categories, market segmentation) adoption (price, popularity and uptake) in the local market is there domestic manufacturing (with export), or import only market size and reasons (e.g. urban air pollution in China) technology (level of sophistication) infrastructure government support / incentives

5.2 Country-specific examples / case studies USA - Elio three-wheeler for volume production France - main quadricycle market in Europe; Grenoble trials (Toyota i-Road, COMS) Germany - government support (eg. IMA Colibri, VW Nils, Visio.M, ICM InnVelo)

- fitness benefits (eg Twike, CarBike) Netherlands – infrastructure (segregated cycle lanes with light mopeds allowed,

electric highway); Canta and other microcars for specific use (domestic law) Norway and Switzerland – postal services (Paxster and Kyburz) Poland – several SMEs (including export), plus prototypes Japan - Kei cars; innovation, both designs/concepts from manufacturers and

regulation (ultra small mobility category) Philippines - large scale adoption proposed Indonesia (tbc) China - affordable basic vehicles, many SME manufacturers India - legal wrangling among rival manufacturers

5.3 Insights from SOLUTIONS/UEMI workshop, Brussels, 27/02/15

5.4 Matrices/graphs can be created to display data obtained from literature search vehicle configuration, number of wheels/seats, propulsion, usage, max speed regional breakdown (Europe, Americas, Asia, etc.), indicating scale of market and

manufacturing activity (quantity of vehicles produced/exported)

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Chapter 6 Consumer adoption

by Richard Barrett, Coventry University

customer expectation (eg. managing comparisons with M1 cars)

design of desirable L-cat vehicles (styling, convenience, cost)including 6 x MDes projects

ways to attract end-users (e.g. new drivers before they start using M1);ownership models

the extent to which car travel, not public transport, can be replaced by journeys in L-cats

market barriers (real and perceived) restricting growth of market in UK

culture shift over time, reversing the “arms race” for bigger heavier vehicles

Awaiting confirmation / further details from Richard.

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Chapter 7 Economic potential of the L category vehicle market

by Donato Masi, Warwick University

Objective: to provide policy makers with an assessment of the economic potential of theL category vehicle market in the UK. The economic potential is analysed by evaluating the features of the market, the infrastructure needed to compete in this market, and the number of jobs generated based on different scenarios.

7.1 Features of the market

Data on the current demando World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK

Forecasts on potential demand, with a particular emphasis on the way in which regulation can modify the demand. Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)

o World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK

Profitability of the L category vehicles related productso Analysis of prices and costs

7.2 Current and needed infrastructure

A theoretical analysis of the L category vehicle supply chain (theory, description of the key actors (OEM, logistics, services, …))

Focus on OEM (theory)

An analysis of the current L category vehicle supply chain (data)o World (with emphasis on China and US); EU; UK

An analysis of the current OEM involved in the L category vehicle supply chain (data)o World; EU; UK

Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030) on the L category vehicle supply chain based on alternative policies

o EU; UK

Three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030) on the L category vehicle supply chain based on alternative policies – focus on OEM

o EU; UK

7.3 Economic growth

The current impact of the L category vehicle industry on GDP

Forecast on the impact of the L category vehicle industry on GDP

Current jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains

Jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains: three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)

Jobs generated by L category vehicle supply chains in manufacturing industry: three scenarios (2020, 2025, 2030)

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Chapter 8 Full energy, local pollution and environmental life cycle assessment

by Beatrice Smyth, Mark Kearns and Aoife Foley, Queen’s University Belfast

Objective: to quantify local pollution, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy savings considering biofuel and electric L category vehicles growth within the framework of the Climate Change Act 2008 and the Energy Act 2013 national energy and GHG emission targets by 2030 and 2050.

Proposed methodology: a bottom-up techno-economic life cycle analysis (LCA) approach using Department for Transport, Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Office for National Statistics statistical datasets to predict possible L category vehicle uptake and development due to trends in technology, economics and policy in order to identify four scenarios (i.e. business-as-usual, green, amber and red).

8.1 National statistical data will be gathered and analysed to forecast L-cat vehicles growth up to 2050 with a five year time slice starting in 2015.

8.2 Figures from Cardiff, Oxford Brookes, Coventry and Warwick will be analysed and collated to develop the four scenarios.

8.3 Datasets from 8.1 and 8.2 will be synchronised and benchmarked.

8.4 The four scenarios will be analysed to estimate the net greenhouse gas emissions and energy savings considering biofuel and electric L category vehicles.

8.5 The results of the preliminary investigation will be examined and discussed within the framework of the Climate Change Act 2008 and the Energy Act 2013, national energy, local pollution and GHG targets by 2030 and 2050.

Narrative: a general state-of-the-art review focusing on global L category vehicle energy and emissions case studies and activity, methodology, results and analysis, discussion, conclusion and limitations and issues of the model, summary.

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Chapter 9 Summary, Conclusion, Remarks and Recommendations

by Kambiz Ebrahimi and Simon Bailey

To be written on completion of the Report.

As appropriate: recommendations for further work to develop the supply and demand for L category vehicles in the UK (including options for future engagement with consumers, fleet operators, policy makers, cleantech investors and suitable others). Where significant adverse potential impacts and risk factors are identified, suggestions for mitigating actions should be provided.

Additional References / Further Reading

As required. Individual chapter references can be included at the end of each chapter.

Appendices

As required.

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