CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A REVIEW - Willis - Global Risk ... Jackson.pdf · CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A...
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CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A REVIEW Andrew Jackson, Managing Director, Energy Property & Casualty claims, Willis London
Transcript of CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A REVIEW - Willis - Global Risk ... Jackson.pdf · CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A...
CATASTROPHE CLAIMS - A REVIEW
Andrew Jackson, Managing Director, Energy Property & Casualty claims, Willis London
THE AUSTIN POWER CONFERENCE
MAY 15 - 17 2012
The Lost Pines Resort, Austin Texas, May 16 2012
CLAIMS OVERVIEW Information from the Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
FOR THE CHARTS AND LISTINGS THAT FOLLOW PLEASE NOTE:
These are upstream and downstream losses only, no power
Only losses excess of $ 1,000,000 FGU have been included
The figures relate to PD/S&P, OEE and BI costs only – no death & injury liability costs are included
These are industry figures rather than insured figures which means
Where possible they INCLUDE deductibles and waiting periods
They are not restricted to any policy limits but the costs involved are considered insurable
They are time of loss (i.e. untrended) numbers
In other words, if you recognise the loss you may not recognise the amount!
It is still too early to have an accurate overview for 2011
Q: HOW MANY SINGLE ASSET ENERGY LOSSES HAVE THERE BEEN
EXCESS OF $ 1 BILLION?NOTE: These exclude1. Aggregate windstorm losses for individual energy companies2. Current day equivalents on old losses
1 = 42 = 63 = 8
4 = 105 = 126 = 14
VOTE NOW
A: 6
1988 Piper Alpha Platform explosion & fire UK Sector, North Sea $ 1,240,000,000
1989 Petrochemical Plant explosion & fire Pasadena, Texas, USA $ 1,365,000,000
2005 Oil sands upgrader fire Alberta, Canada $ 1,467,000,000
2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion & fire Gulf of Mexico, USA ???? $ 2,560,000,000
2011 Oil sands upgrader fire Alberta, Canada $ 1,007,000,000
2011 Gryphon A FPSO mooring failure UK Sector, North Sea $ 1,034,000,000
Q: HOW MANY SINGLE ASSET ENERGY LOSSES HAVE THERE BEEN
BETWEEN $ 500M AND $1BN?NOTE: These exclude1. Aggregate windstorm losses for individual energy companies2. Current day equivalents on old losses3. Losses from the previous slide
1 = 10-152 = 15-203 = 20-25
4 = 25-305 = 30-356 = 35-40
VOTE NOW
1987 Petrochemical plant explosion & fire Pampa, Texas, USA $ 508,000,000
1988 Refinery explosion & fire Louisiana, USA $ 588,000,000
1998 Gas plant explosion & fire Victoria, Australia $ 633,000,000
2000 Refinery explosion & fire Kuwait $ 506,000,000
2001 Sinking of semi-submersible P-36 Campos Basin, Brazil $ 500,000,000
2001 Refinery fire Illinois, USA $ 574,000,000
2004 Gas plant explosion Skikda, Algeria $ 695,000,000
2006 Petrochemical plant explosion & fire Port Arthur, Texas, USA $ 550,000,000
2008 Refinery explosion & fire Big Springs, Texas, USA $ 756,000,000
2009 Platform struck by well vessel Norwegian Sector, North Sea $ 720,000,000
2011 Refinery earthquake damage Miyagi, Japan $ 590,000,000
A: 11
Q: HOW MANY SINGLE ASSET ENERGY LOSSES HAVE THERE BEEN
BETWEEN $ 100M AND $500M?NOTE: These exclude1. Aggregate windstorm losses for individual energy companies2. Current day equivalents on old losses3. Losses from the previous slides
1 = 50-1002 = 100-1503 = 150-200
4 = 200-2505 = 250-3006 = 300-350
VOTE NOW
NON-WINDSTORM ENERGY LOSSES BETWEEN $ 100M AND $500MIncidents Total Actual US$ Average Actual US$ Total Indexed US$ Average Indexed US$
1981 1 100,000,000 100,000,000 200,673,401 200,673,4011982 1 170,000,000 170,000,000 322,675,159 322,675,159
1983 2 316,000,000 158,000,000 594,119,874 297,059,9371984 5 1,060,690,000 212,138,000 1,959,006,012 391,801,2021985 1 183,189,005 183,189,005 335,630,639 335,630,6391987 3 530,711,000 176,903,667 976,849,154 325,616,3851988 2 447,500,000 223,750,000 778,715,328 389,357,6641989 8 1,415,380,000 176,922,500 2,373,569,162 296,696,1451990 5 972,000,000 194,400,000 1,620,000,000 324,000,0001991 6 1,006,600,000 167,766,667 1,660,486,023 276,747,6701992 7 1,441,979,082 205,997,012 2,399,272,844 342,753,2631993 2 200,000,000 100,000,000 331,848,552 165,924,2761994 6 961,000,000 160,166,667 1,555,979,353 259,329,8921996 1 175,000,000 175,000,000 273,251,244 273,251,2441997 3 548,614,000 182,871,333 845,986,918 281,995,6391998 1 110,000,000 110,000,000 168,318,357 168,318,3571999 5 1,053,564,097 210,712,819 1,607,588,842 321,517,7682000 3 686,780,667 228,926,889 1,038,622,881 346,207,6272001 7 1,575,960,209 225,137,173 2,382,126,007 340,303,7152002 2 280,000,000 140,000,000 421,840,243 210,920,1212003 4 769,500,000 192,375,000 1,140,850,746 285,212,6872004 5 1,055,800,000 211,160,000 1,416,606,934 283,321,3872005 8 1,931,705,700 241,463,213 2,458,984,616 307,373,0772006 6 1,021,244,960 170,207,493 1,218,298,631 203,049,7722007 11 2,187,972,628 198,906,603 2,481,978,847 225,634,4412008 11 1,737,968,300 157,997,118 1,800,189,619 163,653,6022009 7 1,271,121,403 181,588,772 1,451,596,774 207,370,9682010 10 1,609,000,000 160,900,000 1,741,038,489 166,096,5872011 18 2,790,538,000 155,029,889 2,790,538,000 155,029,8892012 3 932,000,000 310,666,667 932,000,000 278,500,000
154 28,541,819,051 185,336,487 39,278,642,651 255,056,121
NON-WINDSTORM ENERGY LOSSES BETWEEN $ 100M AND $500M
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Total Actual US$Incidents
NON-WINDSTORM ENERGY LOSSES BETWEEN $ 100M AND $500M
OCCUPANCY
Incidents Total Actual US$ Average Actual US$
Chemical 19 3,543,003,403 186,473,863
Gas plant 11 1,914,705,700 174,064,155
MOPU 7 1,142,500,000 163,214,286
Oil sands 4 1,184,340,600 296,085,150
Petrochemical 25 4,017,194,667 160,687,787
Pipeline 9 1,242,492,000 138,054,667
Platform 18 3,531,621,087 196,966,593
Refinery 36 6,723,662,594 186,768,405
Rig 8 2,143,300,000 267,912,500
SSCS 2 370,000,000 185,000,000
Tank farm/terminal 3 568,000,000 189,333,333
Vessel 1 110,000,000 110,000,000
Well 11 2,050,999,000 186,454,455
TOTAL 154 28,541,819,051 185,336,487
AND NOW FOR AN OVERVIEW OF 2011 ENERGY LOSSES
REMEMBER THESE ARE STILL EARLY NUMBERS
February Anchor chains of FPSO broke during heavy weather North Sea, UK Sector $ 1,034,000,000
December Anchor chains of FPSO broke during heavy weather North Sea, UK Sector $ 365,000,000
April Sinking of semi-submersible flotel Bay of Campeche, Mexico $ 230,000,000
December Leaks in subsea xmas trees Offshore Nigeria $ 230,000,000
March Damage to Free Standing Hybrid Riser Gulf of Mexico, USA $ 150,000,000
May Developmental well out of control Offshore Israel $ 130,000,000
July Damage to FPSO mooring system in transit Offshore Nigeria $ 120,000,000
June Oil pollution from wellhead Bohai Bay, China $ 106,000,000
February Damage to production guide base on well North Sea, Norwegian Sector $ 104,000,000
December Sinking of jackup drilling rig under tow Sea of Okhotsk, Russia $ 100,000,000
2011 MAJOR UPSTREAM LOSSES (PD/S&P, OEE + BI ONLY NO LIABILITY, FGU NOT JUST INSURED)
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
2006 – 2011 UPSTREAM LOSSES PD/S&P, OEE, BI INCLUDING WINDSTORM
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
US$
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Inci
dent
s
Total Actual US$Incidents
Note: For windstorm losses ‘Incident’ = loss per insured
This chart includes an arbitrary OEE figure of US$ 2 billion for the Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo incident
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
DWHOEE
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
US
$
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inci
dent
s
Total Actual US$Incidents
This chart includes an arbitrary OEE figure of US$ 2 billion for the Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo incident
2006 – 2011 UPSTREAM LOSSES PD/S&P, OEE, BI EXCLUDING WINDSTORM
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
DWHOEE
January Fire at primary oilsands upgrader Canada $ 1,007,000,000
March Earthquake damage to refinery Japan $ 590,000,000
November Mechanical failure in petrochemical plant Canada $ 230,000,000
March Earthquake damage to chemical plant Japan $ 173,000,000
March Earthquake damage to chemical plant Japan $ 155,000,000
May Tornado damage to gas plant Oklahoma, USA $ 150,000,000
September Fire in pump station of refinery Singapore $ 150,000,000
May Fire in acetylene plant Germany $ 123,000,000
March Earthquake damage to refinery Japan $ 120,000,000
January Fire in petrochemical plant Louisiana, USA $ 104,000,000
October Fire in refinery Canada $ 100,000,000
December Fire in refinery Texas $ 100,000,000
2011 MAJOR DOWNSTREAM LOSSES (PD/S&P + BI ONLY NO LIABILITY, FGU NOT JUST INSURED)
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
2006 – 2011 DOWNSTREAM LOSSES PD/S&P, BI INCLUDING WINDSTORM
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
US$
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Inci
dent
s
Total Actual US$Incidents
Note: For windstorm losses ‘Incident’ = loss per insured
2006 – 2011 DOWNSTREAM LOSSES PD/S&P, BI EXCLUDING WINDSTORM
Source: The Willis Energy Loss Database (WELD)
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
US$
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Inci
dent
s
Total Actual US$Incidents
January Total loss of jackup drilling rig following blowout and fire Offshore Nigeria $ 452,000,000
March Gas release from wellhead platform UK Sector, North Sea $ 375,000,000
January Fire in petrochemical plant Germany $ 105,000,000
March Fire in petrochemical plant South Africa $ 70,000,000
January Compressor fire on platform Offshore Mexico $ 53,000,000
AND WHAT WE ARE AWARE OF FOR 2012 (PD/S&P, OEE + BI ONLY NO LIABILITY, FGU NOT JUST INSURED)
2011 NATURAL CATASTROPHE ACTIVITY
According to some sources, 2011 is considered a record year for insured losses from natural catastrophes with estimates ranging from $ 100bn to $ 106bn
Previously, 2005 at $ 101bn was highest due to hurricanes Katrina, Rita & Wilma
The February Christchurch earthquake and the March Tohuku earthquake/tsunami contribute almost half of the insured losses at an average estimate of $ 50bn
JANUARY 2011 AUSTRALIA - FLOODS INSURED COST US$ 1.9 BN
FEBRUARY 2011 CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND – EARTHQUAKE INSURED COST US$ 12 BN
FEBRUARY 2011 QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA – CYCLONE YASI (CAT 5) INSURED COST US$ 1.3 BN
MARCH 2011 TOHUKU, JAPAN – EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI INSURED COST US$ 24 BN
APRIL 2011 SOUTHERN STATES, USA – STORMS & TORNADOES INSURED COST US$ 9.3 BN
MAY 2011 SOUTHERN STATES, USA – STORMS & TORNADOES INSURED COST US$ 6.9 BN
JULY 2011 THAILAND - FLOODS INSURED COST US$ 12 BN
AUGUST 2011 CARRIBBEAN & EASTERN USA – HURRICANE IRENE INSURED COST US$ 5.6 BN
OTHER 2011 NATURAL CATASTROPHESJuly: Copenhagen, Denmark - Floods September: Texas, USA - Wildfires
November: France – Floods December: Melbourne, Australia - Hailstorm
MAJOR 2011 NATURAL CATASTROPHES
2011 ENERGY LOSSES SUMMARY
Even this early in 2012, it is evident that 2011 is the worst year for non-windstorm losses to date
Combined with insured Nat Cat losses in non-energy industries insurers underwriting results for last year are understandable
Q: IS THIS A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE?
1 = Strongly agree2 = Agree3 = Somewhat agree?4 = Somewhat disagree5 = Disagree6 = Strongly agree
SO…….. Q: WHERE DOES THE SOLUTION LIE?
1 = The commercial markets?2 = Private mutuals?3 = State funds / mutuals?4 = Clients (e.g. self-insurance)?
THE AUSTIN ENERGY CONFERENCE
MAY 15 - 17 2012
The Lost Pines Resort, Austin Texas, May 16 2012
Thank you for your attention
