Castleton Poll

September 2015

Presidential Politics in Vermont

• 80 percent of Vermonters say that they’ve given some thought to whom they favor in the 2016 Presidential Election

• 48 percent of Vermonters with an opinion (39 percent overall) hope to see Senator Bernie Sanders elected president in 2016

• However, the vast majority do not believe that Sanders will be the Democratic nominee

Hope to see win in 2016

Hope to see win in 2016

Republican

Lean

Republican

True Independents

and Other

Lean

Democrat

Democrat

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Biden Bush Carson ClintonSanders Trump Walker No opinion

Whom Democrats and those who lean Democrat hope to see win in 2016

Sanders Clinton Others Not sure

65%

14%10% 11%

Whom Republicans and those who lean Republican hope to see win in 2016

Sanders Carson Trump Walker Bush Clinton Paul Rubio Other Not sure

12% 12% 12%

8%6%

4% 4% 4%

10%

28%

Whom Vermonters expect to be the major party nominees

Republican

Bush Trump Other Not sure

26%21%

13%

40%

Democrat

Clinton Sanders Biden Other Not sure

46%

27%

10%

1%

16%

Sander’s Support

• Higher among women (57%) than among men (39%)

• Higher among Vermonters < 45 years old (53%) than among Seniors (43%)

• Strongest in Central VT (Addison, Washington, and Orange counties) – 55%

• Weakest in the Northern counties (all counties above Central except Chittenden) – 44%

Poll Details

• Surveyed 617 Vermont adults via landline (n=424, 69%) and cell phone (n=193, 31%)

• Margin of error for entire sample is +/-4% -- MoE increases for subpopulation comparisons

• Data collected from August 24th to September 14th, 2015

• Data are weighted by county, gender, and age to adjust for response differentials