CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013
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Transcript of CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013
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BAe-146
GV
Global Hawk
CAST flight planning and analysis using NAME- Jan-Feb 2013
Neil Harris, Michal Filus, Matt Ashfold, Alistair Manning and John PyleBoulder, Oct 2013
Thanks to WAS team
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Goals
1. Designing science flights whose measurements can be jointly used to study the transport of trace gases in convection (inflow and outflow).
2. Use ATTREX 2013 as a trial run.
3. Analyse tracer measurements from ATTREX 2013, esp. WAS.
Joint flight plans - Jan-Feb 2014
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Target area Source coordinates
Source altitude
/km
Source dimensions / deg.deg.km
Density / particles/layer
NAME runs /day
Met Office forecast
days
1. EAST PACIFIC GH
10oS-30oN 130-170 oW
14-16 16-18 40 x 40 x 2 (2) 80,000 12 back 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
2. SOUTH PACIFIC '146'
20oS-10oN 160oE-170oW 0-5 30 x 30 x 5 225,000 2-5
forward 0, 1, 2, 3
3. WEST PACIFIC '146'
5oS-25oN 130-160oE 0-5 30 x 30 x 5 225,000 2-5
forward 0, 1, 2, 3
Linking GH and ‘146’
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•Data representation: – Distribution studies: fractions crossed 5km– Air history maps– *Altitude vs time plots: qualitative assessment of air mass convection– *Meteorological maps showing weather conditions –
Density of particles below 5 km.12 day back trajectories run using forecast and analysis data. Back-traj started in solid boxes
Linking GH and 146
15%51%
10%12%
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Met Office forecasts and analyses
NAME traj dispersion
12 days back
Start at 14-16 km in East Pacific
Run daily
25/1/13
27/1/13
29/1/13
31/1/13
2/2/13
4/2/13
6/2/13
8/2/13
10/2/13
12/2/13
14/2/13
16/2/13
18/2/13
20/2/13
22/2/13
24/2/13
26/2/13
28/2/13
2/3/13
4/3/13
6/3/13
8/3/13
10/3/13
12/3/13
14/3/13
16/3/13
18/3/13
20/3/13
22/3/13
24/3/13
26/3/13
28/3/13
30/3/13
1/4/13
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
day1 15
NAME traj date
Mas
s fr
actio
n be
low
5 k
m /
%
Fraction of air at 14-16 km coming from BL
25 Jan – 29 Mar 2013
Variation over time
Consistency between forecasts
Linking GH and 146
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GH East Pacific NAME runs: altitude changes25
60
SW box above 16 km
SW box 14-16 km
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WAS CHBr3 - 2013
-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1CHBr3
16 > z > 14 km
-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1CHBr3
Z > 16 km
Mean of easterly values
Mean of easterly values
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WAS CHBr3 - 2013
-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1CHBr3
16 > z > 14 km
-175 -170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -1400
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1CHBr3
Z > 16 km
LZRH mean (WMO, 2011)Upper TTL mean (WMO, 2011)
Upper TTL mean (WMO, 2011)Tropical tropop (WMO, 2011)
Mean of easterly values
Mean of easterly values
Excess caused by recent convection?
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Simple model:• Two sources of air: TTL and inflow region
Depends on• Time since boundary layer• Fraction from in boundary layer
• Can make more complicated assumptions about trajectories which did not enter low troposphere (in-mixing)
[T]MBL = ~2 ppt for CHBr3
= 0.2 ppt for CHBr3[T]TTL
100%0%Fraction of air from MBL
[T]MBL
[T]TTL
Ongoing analysis of WAS CHBr3 - 2013
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• Tracer analysis: Density distribution over the boxes• Calculate concentrations of tracers based on WMO climatology and fixed half-life• Compare modelled results with ATTREX measurements• What resolution is feasible?
Back trajectories fromFeb 26 2013 which cross 5 km (left) &
1 km (right)
Ongoing analysis of WAS CHBr3 - 2013
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Met Office forecasts and analyses
NAME traj dispersion
12 days back
Start at 14-16 km in East Pacific
Run daily
25/1/13
27/1/13
29/1/13
31/1/13
2/2/13
4/2/13
6/2/13
8/2/13
10/2/13
12/2/13
14/2/13
16/2/13
18/2/13
20/2/13
22/2/13
24/2/13
26/2/13
28/2/13
2/3/13
4/3/13
6/3/13
8/3/13
10/3/13
12/3/13
14/3/13
16/3/13
18/3/13
20/3/13
22/3/13
24/3/13
26/3/13
28/3/13
30/3/13
1/4/13
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
day1 15
NAME traj date
Mas
s fr
actio
n be
low
5 k
m /
%
Fraction of air at 14-16 km coming from BL
25 Jan – 29 Mar 2013
Variation over time
Consistency between forecasts
Variability – select dates, areas
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Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km
Met Office forecasts
NAME traj dispersion
+5 days ahead
Start in region of 146
Run daily
Anticyclone clear
Much in range of GV
Based on Ashfold et al., 2012
> 13 km
> 10 km
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Met Office forecasts
NAME traj dispersion
+5 days ahead
Start in region of 146
Run daily
Variation over time
Fraction of air in BL reaching 10 km
1 Jan – 31 Mar 2013
0
0.3
Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km
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Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km
Consider 4 regions
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Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km
Variability in allWithin 5 days of forecasts, most which have got up there are still within 20°
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Forward calculations from West Pacific below 5 km
16 km
13 km
10 km
0.02
0.14
0.30
Less transport to higher altitudesMore geographic spread if it gets there
Implication for flight planning: also need 12 day back-trajectories
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Thank you
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Thank youSurface and sonde measurements
Certainly use trajectories – others?