Caspian Project 02

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HAMMER AND NAILSPINNING WAR FROM PEACE IN IRAN’S NUKE DEAL

SECURITY AND STABILITYIN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS

THE TWO TURBANSWHAT TO EXPECT FROM HARD POWER IN IRAN

IRAN`S SOFT SOLUTIONSFOR HARD REALITIES

AZERBAIJAN CELEBRATESTHE REPUBLIC DAY

THE CASPIAN PROJECTWEEKLY EDITION

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PROJECT TEAM

DIMITRIS GIANNAKOPOuLOSDR. MATTHEW CROSSTONTEJA PALKOPETRA POSEGALuíSA MONTEIROGAbRIELA PASCHOLATI DO AMARAL

I am not saying diplomats and foreign pol-icy analysts do not have the best of inten-tions when trying to broker treaties,reinvigorate relations or institute long-termcooperation. In fact, it is exactly becausethe road for global affairs is paved mostoften with nothing but the best of inten-tions that the axiom above rings more bit-terly true: nothing is unidirectional;everything is multifaceted; and every situ-ation is never contained by minimal players.Consequently, every initial intention is ulti-mately transformed and/or mutated byothers into something else. You need lookno further than the recent Iranian negotia-tions trying to conclude a new agreementabout nuclear energy.

The point of negotiations was to place for-mal curbs and oversight mechanisms onthe Iranian government as it tries to de-velop a nuclear energy program. Thosecurbs are of course meant to make sure thatonly nuclear energy for domestic use cancome from any Iranian effort and no possi-bility could emerge to transform that effortinto the production of nuclear weapons ofany kind

Almost immediately the Ameri-can domestic audience hasbeen passionately split: oneside welcomed the opportunityto consider a new approach foractual engagement, trying tobring Iran more into the globalcommunity responsibility fold.The opposing side is convincedIran can never be trusted andthat any program involving nu-clear energy is destined to be amere ruse to secretly developnuclear weapons and ultimatelydestabilize the Middle East re-gion and beyond. The international reaction hasbeen no less contentious: forevery state that thinks engage-ment with Iran is the only realway to broker responsible nu-clear behavior from it, there arepowerful opponents (Israel andSaudi Arabia just to name twovery outspoken ones) who willlikely never feel any brokereddeal will provide enough realoversight or enough true curbs.

HErE iS tHE ultiMatE axioM for all aspiring diplomats andforeign policy experts to know: there is no such thing as a simplequest for peace. Before anyone goes apoplectic with disgust anddisdain at such cynicism, allow me to explain.

Hammer anD nail

Dr. Matthew CrosstonSenior Editor

Matthew Crosston isProfessor of Political

Science, Directorof the International

Security andIntelligence Studies

Program, andthe Miller Chair at

Bellevue University

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Spinning War from peace in iran’S nuke Deal

In a diplomatic Utopia the next course of ac-tion would be to include all actors with astake in the game to come together andhammer out not only consensus, but a senseof repeatable trust so that there is both thelikelihood of good behavior and belief inlegal redress for any violation of said behav-ior. But we do not live in a diplomatic Utopia,far from it. In fact, we live in a global affairsworld where we speak about peace but ex-pect war; where we declare good intentionsbut anticipate subterfuge; where we extendthe hand of friendship while making sure theother hand is behind our backs with fingerscrossed, just in case. Most say this is just cau-tious statesmanship, a necessary but healthyskepticism so as to not be overwhelmed ifthings go poorly.

Sometimes, however, that cautious states-manship seems to doom those best inten-tions to the trash heap of chaos. In this case,that chaos might be triggered by the barelycontained secret that the United States willnot only renew its defense aid agreementwith Israel when it expires in 2017, but thatit will likely be INCREASED significantly be-yond its current three billion USD.

The posturing and denial swirling aroundthis poorly concealed secret is almost fodderfor a tragic comedy: no one is willing toadmit this is meant to be a ‘kiss and make-up’defense deal to put Israel more at ease withthe Americans engaging Iran. Netanyahuhimself staunchly declares that even if a newdeal is reached and for significantly moremoney that it will still not change Israel’soverall opposition to American engagementwith Iran. In other words, the U.S. is going togive more money and weapons to an irri-tated Israel in order to keep it ‘calm’ about al-lowing Iran the chance to dabble withnuclear energy. Iran, of course, is not goingto be blind to this development. From its sideit will no doubt see its own internationalagreement as trying to constrain its ‘nationaldefense sovereignty’ while then watchingthe Americans follow it with another with Is-rael that will subsequently arm it to theteeth, with an anticipation and expectationof Iranian misbehavior. Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly clamor ontoIsrael’s coattails to also gain new advantagesand ‘cooperation.’ Keep in mind this currentsituation emerges from the ‘positive’ diplo-macy of engaging Iran, with the intention toprevent it from developing nuclear weaponscapability and making it more responsiblytied to the global community.

One man’s cooperation can indeed be an-other man’s conflict. So if anyone is standingby trying to read the tea leaves of futurepeace as it concerns the Iranian agreement,be careful with your enthusiasm: the cascadeeffects of the eternal Security Dilemma, in-nate to global affairs writ large, means this‘new day dawning’ in American-Iranian rela-tions could ultimately also be the cause for

america Will TrY To ‘SooTHe’HurT feelingS bY giving

iSrael a maSSive increaSe inDefenSe aiD, likelY folloWeDbY Similar poSSibiliTieS for

SauDi arabia anD TurkeY

worsening interaction with Israel, Turkey, andSaudi Arabia, just to name a few. To recap:•america opens discussions as it is domesti-cally conflicted as to whether this deal withIran is positive or negative. Regardless, nego-tiations and an anticipated deal is expected.•israel will never see it as anything but neg-ative, leading to an increased sense of inse-curity.•Saudi arabia will agree, on this one thingat least, with Israel. •turkey will hedge its bets but also lookupon the agreement with concern and‘healthy skepticism.’•america will try to ‘soothe’ hurt feelings bygiving Israel a massive increase in defenseaid, likely followed by similar possibilities forSaudi Arabia and Turkey. All three will usethis ‘defense’ aid in a manner that will seemdecidedly ‘offensive’ in military capacityterms.•iran will see those actions as a direct act of‘potential aggression’ against itself, subse-quently causing internal domestic pressureto not honor the new agreement that set allof this behavior off in the first place.

•israel, Saudi arabia, and perhaps turkeywill see this Iranian ‘reaction’ as actually ‘ac-tion,’ the EXACT action in fact they alwayswarned about and had been waiting for fromthe very first moment the Americans en-gaged Iran. •america will reopen discussions domesti-cally, perhaps even elevating to a formallegal level, to consider if this deal was not justnegative or positive, but if someone some-where somehow had done something illegalto broker it. Expect those accusations tocome from whichever party is not currentlyholding the White House.

It is both fascinating and disconcerting towitness how fast the spinning wheel of co-operation and peace can turn into the rotat-ing blades of mistrust and war. And alwayswith the ‘best of intentions’ motivating every-one’s diplomats and foreign policy analysts.I hope I am wrong. I hope such possibilitiesdo not turn into realities. I hope, for once,that ‘skeptical optimism’ can in fact turn intolegitimate optimism. I hope. But I won’t holdmy breath.

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This proposition was an invitation to theSouth Caucasian States to remember, re-think and rebuild their European roots andidentity.At that time, the Russian Federation wasstill two years away from membership. Rus-sia joined the Council of Europe in 1996.Georgia followed in 1999 and, in January2001, Armenia and Azerbaijan completedthe membership as regards the Caucasusregion.

From the political point of view the Cauca-sus is part of Europe. That has been con-firmed not only by the Pan-EuropeanCouncil of Europe but also by its smaller sis-ter, the European Union, e.g. just recentlywhen the summit of the Eastern Partner-ship took place in Riga with the participa-tion of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.We often speak about European family ofdemocratically-minded nations, about Eu-ropean, or Council of Europe standards. Butwhat it is to be European? What is themeaning of Europe in the 21st century?

What does it mean with regardto stability and security in a re-gion belonging to Europe?

Seen from Baku, Yerevan or Tbil-isi, the Europe of Berlin, Paris,London, Vienna may seem im-possibly prosperous and peace-ful. Let me remind that Europeof 1949, when the Council ofEurope was created, was quitedifferent: war-torn cities, ruinedeconomy and uncertain future.The Council of Europe was cre-ated as a reaction to the horrorsof war. What was the remedy?Respect for Human Rights, plu-ralistic democracy and the Ruleof Law. These were the princi-ples enshrined in Article 3 of theStatute. And Strasbourg, longthe centre of bitter Franco-Ger-man conflicts, was chosen asthe headquarters of the Organ-isation.

I invite you to pause and thinkfor a moment: the guns of theSecond World War went silent70 years ago on 9 May 1945.Four years later, on 5 May 1949,the Statute of the Council of Eu-rope was signed.

MorE tHan tWEnty yEarS ago, the Parliamentary Assemblyof the Council of Europe adopted Recommendation 1247 (1994).The Recommendation read: “In view of their cultural links with Eu-rope, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia would have the possibilityof applying for membership provided they clearly indicate theirwill to be considered as part of Europe”.

SECURITY AND STAbILITYIN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS

H.E. Dr. WalterSchwimmer

Vice Chair of the MD’sAdvisory Board

Former SecretaryGeneral of the Council

of EuropeChairman of the Inter-national Coordinating

Committee of theWorld Public Forum –

Dialogue ofCivilizations

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Now imagine that four years after the Ar-menian-Azerbaijan cease-fire of 9 May 1994,on 5 May 1998, a regional Organization forthe respect of Human Rights, democracy andthe rule of law was created and the town ofShusha was chosen for its seat.

That is the meaning of Europe. Perhaps noteverybody saw that back in 1949, but todaythere is no doubt: Europe is all about re-nouncing war, once and for all – also in theminds of political establishment and thepublic.

Europe is all about reconciliation, assumingpast history, learning how to live with one’sneighbors, accepting and enjoying diversity.Europe is by far not yet perfect. There is stilla lot to be done, not only in the SouthernCaucasus, in Europe and its neighborhood. And what about the South Caucasus as partof Europe? Even without detailed knowledgeof history, a look at the map is enough - withNagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan, withtheir interspersed and mixed populations,

Azerbaijan and Armenia are tied togetherlike Siamese twins. As late as 2001, it wasmanifested in the “joint Council of Europe ac-cession option for Azerbaijan and Armenia”,chosen by all Council member States. When I spoke in 2002 to an audience in theYerevan State University I used for the firsttime the metaphor of the Siamese twins. Itwas not to the liking of everybody. Severalweeks later, the Armenian Ambassador tothe OSCE mentioned it in Vienna and arguedagainst my message. I found no reason tochange my mind: yes, Azerbaijan and Arme-nia are inseparably linked together, as Ipointed out also at the Baku University. try-ing to separate Siamese twins by the swordwill inevitably lead to death for both. Azer-baijan and Armenia have only one future –to live together, as one organism, as twoneighbours separated by borders whichhave lost all meaning in everyday life, as twostates within the larger European family.

As Secretary General I was used to organizeworkshops of young people from still exist-ing conflict regions, e.g. Kosovo, Cyprus, Is-rael and Palestine in our proximity and ofcourse the Southern Caucasus. In general itwas always refreshing and promising howfast young people can overcome prejudicesand stereotypes. E.g., when I had invitedyoungsters from Kosovo and the Middle East,on the first day the Albanians and Serbs fromKosovo told me how surprised they wereseeing Israelis and Palestinians talking toeach other, while the participants from theMiddle East were shocked that the relationsbetween different people living in the samearea could be worse than in their part of theworld. But after one week they all becamefriends!

THE POLITICAL COURAgE,THE DIffICULT COMPROMISES,

THE RECONCILIATIONEffORTS – THIS IS ALL

fOR THE REgIONTO ACCOMPLISH

Another year I brought together again youngIsraelis and Palestinians, Greeks and Turksfrom Cyprus and … Armenians and Azerbai-janis. I asked them to sit together in regionalgroups and work on conflict resolution. Butnot on their own conflict, but on one of theother regions, the ones from the Middle Easton the Cyprus conflict, the Cypriots on theNagorno Karabakh issue and the Caucasianson the Middle East case. All of them elaborated reasonable sugges-tions, for Cyprus a blue print of the KofiAnnan plan – but one year before the Secre-tary General of the UN came out with it, forArmenia and Azerbaijan a compromisewhich seemed for me to be acceptable forthe partners and a very interesting approachfor the Middle East.

What did young Armenians and Azerbaijanissuggest to Israel and the Palestinians? Theessence was, don’t argue about the past,don’t waste time by blaming each other formistakes of the past – just start where youare now. This is of course the only way tosolve the Middle East conflict – if you aregoing to the past you end up with the HolyBooks as land register, arguments used bythe extremists of both sides. But then I asked my young friends from theSouthern Caucasus – why shouldn’t we applythe same principle for your region. You donot need to deal with the past looking forproblems.There are current problemsenough. Of course, they are rooted in thepast, and several of them belong to what Iwould call the Soviet legacy.


There is the problem of Georgia, with twoseparatist entities, protected and supportedby Russia. Hundreds of thousands refugeesfrom these entities are staying in the rest ofGeorgia, dismantled of their property, sepa-rated from their homes, now nearly since aquarter of a century. The result of the at-tempt of former Georgian president MikhailSakashvili to solve one of the conflicts withmilitary means is well known. The situationwith Southern Ossetia became worse thanbefore when there was a kind of status quofor ethnic Ossetians and ethnic Georgians.

Azerbaijan is still suffering from the NagornoKarabakh conflict. A large part of the countrybeside Nagorno Karabakh is occupied by Ar-menian forces, more than 1 million peoplehad to flee from these 7 Azerbaijani districtsand are living now as IDPs, far from their de-stroyed homes.. I visited refugees in 2004and about 9 years later. I realized that Azer-baijan did a lot to provide for a life of dignityfor these people. They have suffered enough;they should not endure alone the conse-quences of an unsolved conflict.

Due to the conflict Azerbaijan has to spendmore than 4% of its GDP for the army. An-other consequence of the Armenian-Azer-baijani conflict is that the province ofNakhichevan is separated from Azerbaijan byArmenian territory and cannot be reachedon land. But Armenia is suffering from the conflicttoo: The economies of both sides have beenhurt by their inability to make substantialprogress toward a peaceful resolution. Alsohere more than 4% of GDP goes to the mili-tary. The border to Turkey has been closed byAnkara in support of Azerbaijan as retaliationto the conflict with Azerbaijan. BetweenYerevan and Ankara is also the open ques-tion of the recognition of the genocide of 1,5million Armenians in the Ottoman empire.Allegedly up to half of the population has leftthe country due to the circumstances. Thesituation seems even worse in NagornoKarabakh where 180,000 ethnic Armenianslived before the armed conflict and accord-ing to well-informed sources only one thirdis left. Due to the conflict Armenia is to alarge extent dependent on Russian support. Talking about stability and security in the re-gion one should not forget that Russia de-spite its involvement in Georgia and in theArmenian-Azerbaijani conflict has its ownproblems in the Northern Caucasus, beingconfronted with islamist extremism.

The international community succeeded inmy view only to freeze the conflicts. TheOSCE is involved in mediation efforts in sev-eral unresolved conflicts:The conflict in andaround Nagorno-Karabakh - through theMinsk Group (co-chaired by France, the Russ-ian Federation and the United States) and aPersonal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office on the Conflict Dealt with by the OSCEMinsk Conference.

A LOOk AT THE MAP IS ENOUgH -WITH NAgORNO-kARAbAkH

AND NAkHICHEvAN, WITH THEIRINTERSPERSED AND MIxED

POPULATIONS, AzERbAIJAN ANDARMENIA ARE TIED TOgETHER

LIkE SIAMESE TWINS

In the post-2008 conflict in Georgia - theOSCE, together with the UN and EU, co-chairs the international Geneva Discussionsin the wake of the conflict in Georgia. It also,with EUMM, co-facilitates the meetings ofthe Dvani/Ergneti Incident Prevention andResponse Mechanism (IPRM) dealing withmatters that affect the daily life of popula-tions on the ground.You see what I mean when I say one does notneed to deal with the past looking for prob-lems. There are current problems enough.Priority should be given to solve the currentproblems the population of the whole regionis suffering from. I admit that I don’t have aperfect recipe. But what I certainly know isthat there is no military solution for any ofthe conflicts. The key words are dialogue, co-operation and reconciliation.

This is what was happening in Europe, earlieror later. France and Germany have led theway. Shortly after Azerbaijan and Armeniajoined the Council of Europe, the remainingborder control facilities on the Bridge of Eu-rope, connecting the neighbouring cities ofStrasbourg in France and Kehl in Germanywere completely dismantled and two newbridges were built. This was my first message – Europe is allabout reconciliation, tolerance and enjoy-ment of diversity. I am deeply convinced –with political will and courage, within onlyone generation the South Caucasus can be acompletely different place. My second message is about caring of the in-terest of the people. Fighting poverty, im-proving education and health servicesshould be given priority to military expendi-ture. My third message is about cultural andregional co-operation. Here again, I wish tospeak the exact words I spoke in Baku, in Tbil-isi and in Yerevan:

Regional and transborder co-operation havegiven a remarkable contribution to the reuni-fication and prosperity of Europe, we believethey can do much more so in the Caucasusregion. This works not only between Franceand Germany. We can see that in anothertroubled region of Europe, the WesternBalkans. Former enemies in SEE formed a Re-gional Council as well as CEFTA. By far not allproblems have been solved including veryserious ones such as the dispute overKosovo. Nevertheless Serbia and Kosovo canboth participate in these activities.

However, the political courage, the difficultcompromises, the reconciliation efforts – thisis all for the region to accomplish. But Europecan help. The events in Ukraine have demon-strated that we would need a genuine Pan-European security system – including Russia.Such a system should have a conflict man-agement instrument which can be appliedwithout further discussions. And such a sys-tem should cover of course the SouthernCaucasus too. I am convinced that peace and reconciliationin the Southern Caucasus is feasible. In Bakuas well as in Yerewan I expressed my wish togo one day by train from one capital to theother. And perhaps, like Strasbourg, one daythe town of Shusha will become the symbolof reconciliation.

The country, governed by Ayatollah AliKhamenei (military, judiciary, broadcast-ing services) and President HassanRouhani, undergoes a period of suffo-cated economy, alert troops and pres-sured judiciary.It has now become a boiling cauldronwhere national security, journalism,money and energy sources intersect andinterfere with each other; unfortunately,there is no better spell than time to giveit a chance to recover and a clear direc-tion to follow.

the long-lasting flavour of biting theuranium bulletThe multilateral discussion about Iran’suranium enrichment program has beenin vogue for over a decade. After suffer-ing sanctions related to a supposedly pa-cific energy program since 2006,negotiations with F5+1 (France, UnitedStates, United Kingdom, Russia, Chinaand Germany) were expected to reach aresult on June 30th, after some previousagreements in Lausanne, on April 2nd.On a sad note, the conjoint signature ofan official document does not seem tobe possible for now, since some primor-dial and most sensitive points were stillnot discussed nor accorded.

It is true that Iran does not useits hard power to take countriesinto accepting its nuclear condi-tion. Whether it could or not do so isstill a mystery. In early Februarythis year, Ayatollah Khameneitold economists and officials inTabriz that the western sanc-tions will never come to an end,since the countries do not ap-prove the Islamic revolution inthe first place. Additionally, he said that if theembargoes were to be main-tained, Iran could also followthis path and stop commercial-izing gas with the European na-tions, among others. In thispoint, hard and soft powerstrategies – or, at least, inten-tions - in Iran are not balanced,but mixed. President Rouhani’s negotiatorstry to diplomatically find a solu-tion to the impasse, whereasthe supreme leader accuses ‘theenemy’ of using sanctions tothe hilt – for that reason, someeven predict that there mightbe a rift between those twosides of the government, in-stead of the so called ‘smartpower’, the ideal soft-hardpower balance. Despite of making its ownthreats, the country continuesto face embargoes due to refus-ing the proposal of an interna-tional team interviewing itsscientists as well as an ‘any-where, anytime’ inspection inmilitary sites by foreign experts.

tHE ISLaMIc rEpubLIc of Iran has, undoubtedly, faced hardtimes and what came lately is no exception to that.

THE TWO TURbANS

Luísa MonteiroMD Editor


WHAT TO ExPECT fROM HARD POWER IN IRAN

As a signatory of the NPT (1968), it could notdevelop nuclear activities that do not meetpacific ends; even so, the sort of the re-searches made in Iranian territory has beendoubted since 2002. It is impossible to sayand useless to speculate what is being pro-duced there, however it must be taken intoaccount that the technology used to gener-ate nuclear energy for pacifistic purposestakes a lot of time and funding to convertinto military one (costs are connected mainlyto the uranium enrichment process and ac-tually building a sophisticated weapon sys-tem; a reason why countries start off with amilitary nuclear programme to obtain thenuclear weapon in the first place and after-wards comes the pacifistic nuclear energypart of the story).

Iran is a great regional force in the MiddleEast and has a profound influence over itsArab neighbours, having trained various mili-tias around the Arab World.

It is also militarily well-equipped and pre-pared, counting on a strong Army and Navy,which makes the other countries very un-comfortable, especially those from the GulfCooperation Council (GCC) (this is not to saythat they are not making Iran nervous withtheir close bond to the US). Tehran has ambitions of fully controlling theStrait of Hormuz, an important choke pointfrom the Persian Gulf, that would not onlyenable the country economical control overthe whole region, controlling the exports ofenergy reserves by sea routes, but also mili-tarily one, by barring the American presencethere. It also has great ambition towards itsdue part of the rich Caspian Sea, claiming20% of it against the 12% already offered byits Caspian neighbours. In all of those cases,it seems right to say that having a nukewould be, in turn, a way of reassuring itspower, but, more than meaning the rise of itshard power, a way of coercing and threaten-ing the Gulf countries, the thought creatingfriction with their main Western ally, the US.In this equation, we cannot forget about theone regional force that has both, nuclearweapons and a very offensive foreign policystrategies: Israel.

Lately, the mounting tension among thesenations resulted in the use of Saudi-ledforces to control a group of rebels based inYemen, allegedly supported by Iran. Thatshows the power of the forces in Saudi Ara-bia, but it also evidences a paramilitary cam-paign from Iran’s side that has beendeveloped long ago and all its influence overthe region – and it is not because of dia-logue.

IRAN SEEMS TO bETHE ONLY NATION

gEOgRAPHICALLY PRESENTAND MILITARILY MIgHT

ENOUgHTO fIgHT THE ISIS

SPREADINg

In addition to all of the above mentionedreasons and the fact that Iran is on the“wrong” side of the alliance axis in the MiddleEast, standing opposite to Saudi Arabia, Is-rael and the US, help build arguments –veiled or not- for the continuous and gradualuse of hard power towards Iran, through eco-nomic bans. On the other hand, it is still to be thoughtwhy such countries do not seem to worry somuch about the non-signatory nations of theNPT, where the presence of nukes is concreteand not a secret. It is even more ironical if theaffinities between those territories and theWestern, principally the American leader-ship, are perceived.

the perks of being a military wallAs a country of regional importance, Iranseems to be the only nation geographicallypresent and militarily might enough to fightthe ISIS spreading – it counts on a hugereservoir of manpower (according to the CIAfactbook, 1,4 million people reach militarysignificant age annually and, according tothe Iran Intelligence website, 520,000 peopleare in active duty, being, by far, the most sig-nificant number in the region), masters theuse of drones and counts on missiles, too –an arsenal that tends to increase, once Russiaopted for lifting its 5-year ban and proceedwith the sales of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.

Also, the Persian nation has an old and closeliaison with the militias in Iraq and Syria, inaddition to Hezbollah and other groups. Itsmain influence can be noticed in the trainingof the soldiers, the financing of weapons andstaff.

Even though it is the ideal nation to recur to– either for its experience in fighting ISIS onthe ground level, or for being the one whichis aiding military efforts against it – the West-ern coalition against ISIS, led by the UnitedStates, resists Iran`s joining in the effort ofmitigating the actions of the jihadists.

It is clear that the ISIS threat to the Arabworld tends to bring historical foes closer, asit may happen to Iran and Iraq due to theIranian help during the Iraqi occupation –commander and national figure QassimSoleimani, from the Quds Force of Iran’s Rev-olutionary Guard, was a resource offered byIran to direct the Shiite militias against theextremists. This is not the first time Iran uses its militarypower in Iraq, though.. The Iran-Iraq war, thatwas long, albeit not beneficial for any of theparts involved, was a major example of howboth of these countries were able to use theirhard power on each other for eight years.


The United States that, at the time, was po-litically and financially involved in the con-flict, now assumes a more discrete role withair strikes and assistance to the local IraqiArmy, partly because of its unhealed woundsfrom the war in Iraq (ended in 2011), partlybecause of its own internal conflicts at theCongress.

Say it all or not at allWar and firepower are not the only issuesthat currently worry Iran. Since ten monthsago, when the Iranian-American journalistJason Rezaian, his wife and a photographerwere arrested under the charges of betrayaland spying, the world turns its eyes with an-tipathy to Ayatollah Kahmeini’s judiciary.Both of the ladies were set free after payinga fee, but the Iran-based Washington Post re-porter was kept in prison and, since May25th, is being judged in a court that couldonly be attended by himself, the judge, theprosecutor and an attorney who he couldnot choose, in a room reserved for the pros-ecution of political crimes.

The media worldwide speaks of strong gov-ernmental presence in the charges pressed,and the need for such a case is also put intoquestion. Double citizenship of Rezaian isnot recognized either, which makes it impos-sible for the diplomatic service of America tointerfere. If convicted, the journalist can faceup to six years in prison. But we are still to fol-low how the community is going to claim hisrights – if at all.

Finally, what can be said about Iran is that itis a country that has been through hard pro-bations since 1979 with the fall of RezaPahlevi. The latest elections, though, show amoment in which the republican govern-ment is more open to dialogue and, there-fore, can be expected to soothe some of itspositions, yet it must count on gradual andhomeopathic changes once it is also admin-istrated by the ‘divine’, religious power, thattends to be stricter because of its doctrines.Therefore,

Tehran still has a way to go when it comes tochoosing its weapons in order to achieve anobjective. Maybe this is the time for it to startboosting its willingness to dialogue and itsimpressive influence with a wiser, more goal-oriented mindset.

Iran is a good example for this argument;well into the Iranian revolution in 1979,ayatollah Khomeini understood perfectlywell the principles of soft power, al-though the game had yet no name; hemasterfully synchronized the various op-position forces against the Shah`sregime, utilizing the broader definition ofa cultural identity rather than a parochial,nationalistic/political one and promotingthe “revolution without borders”. An im-portant extension of this identity bridgebetween broader Muslim populationsalso became the clear animosities to-wards Israel, or “Zionist colonizer”, that in-troduced Iran as an opposition forcetoward the established structures ofpower in the region. In addition to that, soft power of contem-porary Iran is based upon religion, ethics,beliefs, ideology and science. Much of itsinfluence originates in the country`s cul-ture, beauty and spirituality, not to forgetits literature, music, folklore and tradi-tions. An element to reckon with is alsothe historical one for Iranians are ances-tors of the great Persian Empire, datingback to 550 BC.

What is more, for a country,where the power of thesupreme leader is believed tobe derived from spiritualsources and based on divine,soft power is arguably a muchmore influential power thanhard power itself. Soft power ishere not only a political tool ora herald of national interests,but also a foundation for the na-tional character, able to influ-ence public opinions wellbeyond the state and regionalborders.

Iran is one of those countriesthat has been a subject tomounting pressure from theglobal community for at least acouple of decades now, mostrecently on the supposed mili-tary nuclear programme, mak-ing the success of soft powerpolicy methods even more vi-tally important for the achiev-ment of its foreign and domestic policy goals. Country`s richhistorical and manifold culturalidentity has been an ideal andprolific source for the extendedoutreach to the world and awell exercised diplomatic prac-tice.

IRAN`S SOfT SOLUTIONSfOR HARD REALITIES

EvEn bEforE Soft poWEr was officially introduced into thevocabulary of international relations, its core principles were nev-ertheless exercised by state entities all over the world and al-though formally a new term, it was pragmatically speaking just afresh term for old practices.

petra posegaMD Editor

Petra Posega is a Mas-ter`s degree studentat the University forCriminal justice and

Security in Ljubljanawith a Bachelor`s de-

gree in Political Sci-ence- Defense

studies.


The other is centered around promoting theparticular Islamic revolution culture and tra-ditions abroad through the Islamic Cultureand Relations Organization (ICRO), subordi-nated directly to the Supreme Leader`s Of-fice. Because of its wide-spread activities andwork, away from the spotlight and dailynews, the ICRO can be seen as Iran`s leadingnetwork of soft power and an important toolfor the dispersed recognition of ayatollah`sbelief system beyond state borders. The ICRO institute is therefore mainly preoc-cupied with promoting the values, traditionsand views of the country, concentrating ongrooming ties with many Shiite Muslim com-munities around the world, most prolificallyin states such as Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon andSyria.The ICRO seeks to develop strong tieswith local religious communities, establishlinks with local clerics and hold events on thevarious key dates in the Shiite Muslim calen-dar.

From the celebrations of the greatness ofPersian Empire to the Shiite imbued identityspill over, Iranian heads of state, diplomats,prominent public figures and businessmanhave utilized Iran`s historical, civilizationaland religious weight to pursue economic,political and strategic goals of Iran in the in-ternational community. Therefore, Iran hasbeen very active in combining its geopoliticsand cultural might to form a unique mixtureof soft power tools, now able to even counterthe omnipresent American influence in theregion, with broader global implications.

Many of the leverage in the Iranian softpower rests in the values of the Islamic re-public, deriving from the Shiite Muslim tradi-tions. The influence is two-fold: one part iscomposed from creating bonds with Shiitecommunities all over the world, forming agood basis for support of the country`s poli-cies.

Additionally, the ICRO has established oper-ating offices in many European countries,promoting the Persian language and litera-ture and according to studies, Iran hasreached its peak time of influence over thePersian speaking world population. The Islamic Republic has also been activelybolstering its economic opportunities in theregion, soft power style, forming ties withnumerous local businesses and providingenergy needs to neighboring countries, par-ticularly Iraq. Iranian business infrastructureexists also as far as Turkey and to a lesser de-gree in Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria andRomania. With energy ties expanding thor-ough Central Asia and all the way to China,the opportunities to influence regional poli-cies are ever emerging. Accordingly, we canrecognize many Iranian trade connectionsand deals as highly strategic in their nature.A good example for this is a state owned carmanufacturing factory Khodoro, which is col-laborating with Turkey and Malaysia to buildcars for Muslim markets. Additionally, thefactory is emerging as one of the biggestones in the Middle Eastern car building in-dustries.

Strategic infrastructure is also part of theIranian collage of soft power policies. Theplanned railroad connection between Tajik-istan, Afghanistan and Iran is part of broaderefforts to connect Iran to Central Asian re-publics and also China and Russia; therefore,aligning the country with the recent Chineseidea to revive and apply the old Silk Roadconcept to modern age options.

All of this can be intertwined with an alter-native outlook on the world, not comprisinganymore just out of the supposedly supremepower of the US but from many regionalgreat powers, shaping the international po-litical and strategic balance and the counter-ing of American superiority has to beacknowledged as an additional great sourcefor the Iranian soft power.

In the black and white world, powered by thealliance of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israelwhich is presenting Iran as belligerent, dan-gerous, heretical, non- Arab nation, Iran isstriving towards the policy of “Neither Westor East”, originating from the cold war era ofthe Islamic revolution, displaying an array ofcolors in the prism of Middle-Eastern rela-tions. Accordingly, Iran has been masterfullyexploiting its many and rich soft powermeans for forging closer ties with regionalneighbors as well as other global allies.

IRAN HAS bEEN vERY ACTIvEIN COMbININg ITS gEOPOLITICS AND CULTURALMIgHT TO fORM A UNIqUE MIxTURE Of SOfT POWER TOOLS


Such oversimplifications do very little forIranian public image and should be widelyavoided in the future. Iran should therefore continue to rely on itssoft power tactics to keep and obtain al-liances, promote the non- western establish-ment, refrain from “over-religioulating” worldpolitics and support the multipolar worldorder. Additionally, the recent agreement onthe Iranian nuclear issue has arguably evenstrengthen the Iranian disposition as astrong regional actor in the Middle East andthe Lausanne agreement has successfullystarted to crack the propaganda- filled imageof an evil and uncooperative Iran, bolsteredby the unholy trinity of US, Israel and SaudiArabia.

Henceforth, we will hopefully be able to seehow old realities fade into oblivion, if con-fronted with many smart decisions, softmoves and hard victories.

The most slippery terrain for Iranian softpower influence will continue to be the re-gional religious abyss and misinterpretationof world politics. The profound case for thelatter was most blatantly visible in the recentArab spring uprisings, when Iranian SupremeLeader was widely criticized for labeling thewave of protests and revolutions as “Islamic”instead of revolutions of people of differentreligions, ethnicities and beliefs, striving forchanges particularly in their socio- economicand political regimes.

MANY Of THE LEvERAgEIN THE IRANIAN SOfT POWER

RESTS IN THE vALUESOf THE ISLAMIC REPUbLIC,

DERIvINg fROM THE SHIITEMUSLIM TRADITIONS

Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was de-clared on May 28, 1918 in Tbilisi by theAzerbaijan National Council headed byMahammad Amin Rasulzade. The Decla-ration of Independence adopted by theNational Council of Azerbaijan said: Azer-baijani People have a power and Azerbai-jan located in the South-EasternCaucasus is fully legitimate independentcountry from today. The National Councilelected by the people and the TemporaryGovernment, which is responsible beforethe National Council, will lead Azerbaijanuntil the Assembly of Founders is estab-lished.

As Rasulzade was holding negotiationson Azerbaijan’s independence with theOttoman Empire in Batumi, deputy chair-man of Azerbaijan National CouncilHasan bey Agayev chaired the meeting,where the Declaration of Independencewas announced. Mustafa Mahmudovwas secretary at the meeting.

The first temporary govern-ment of Azerbaijan DemocraticRepublic under the leadershipof Fatali Khan Khoyski was con-firmed at that meeting of Azer-baijan National Council.Azerbaijani government wastemporarily based in Gandja, asBaku was under Bolshevik-Dashnak control headed byStepan Shaumyan. On Septem-ber 15, 1918 after the heavybattles Azerbaijani NationalArmy and Caucasian IslamicArmy led by Nuru Pasha liber-ated Baku from Bolshevik, dash-nak and English military unitsand independent AzerbaijaniGovernment moved to Baku.

Azerbaijani Parliament wassolemnly inaugurated in HajiZeynalabdin Tagiyev’s schoolfor girls (now the building ofManuscripts Institute namedafter Fuzuli) at 13.00 on Decem-ber 7, 1918. Chairman of Azer-baijan National CouncilRasulzadeh made a congratula-tory speech. Alimardan beyTopchubashov was electedchairman of the parliament,Hasan bey Agayev first deputychairman of the parliament.

AzERbAIJAN CELEbRATESTHE REPUbLIC DAY

97 yearS have paSSed since the first democratic republic wasestablished in the East.


Topchubashov was attending the Paris PeaceConference and therefore Hasan bey agayevchaired the parliament. At the first meetingof the parliament Fatali Khan Khoyski’s gov-ernment resigned and decision was made toform a new government. Fatali Khan Khoyskiled the government again.

During the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic,the parliament held 155 meetings. 10 meet-ings were held by the Azerbaijan NationalCouncil (May 27-November 19, 1918) and145 – by the parliament of Azerbaijan (De-cember 7, 1918 – April 27, 1920).More than 270 draft laws were discussed bythe parliament and 230 of them wereadopted. Members of the parliament repre-sented in 11 factions and groups partici-pated in the elaboration, discussion andapproval of the legislation. 11 commissionswere working at the parliament.

Azerbaijan Democratic Republic reachedgreat achievements in the short period of itshistory. It was the first republic given votingright to the women and securing the equal-ity between men and women. A great workhas been done in the spheres of nationalarmy building, issuing national currency, es-tablishing national bank, democratization,free elections, international relations andrecognition of the independence of Azerbai-jan by the international community, securingthe territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, con-ducting economic reforms and other fields.Unfortunately 23-month ADR was over-thrown by the bolsheviks on April 28, 1920.The independence was officially recognizedfirst by the Ottoman Empire on June 4, 1918.

Now, the founding day of the AzerbaijanDemocratic Republic is celebrated as the Na-tional Holiday of Azerbaijan- the RepublicDay and is non-working day in the country.By order of President Ilham Aliyev, the mon-ument was erected in honor of ADR in thecenter of Baku. At the same time, by order ofthe Head of State, the anniversaries offounders of ADR Mamed Emin Rasulzade, Al-imardanbey Topchubashov, Fatali KhanKhoysky memorialized and marked at thestate level.

President of Azerbaijan holds an annual re-ception dedicated to the Republic Day.Speaking at the recent ceremony held onMay 27, the President said: "The creation ofthe Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was ahistorical event of global importance. Be-cause it was the first democratic republic inthe Muslim world. We are proud that this his-tory was written by the people of Azerbaijan.Founding ADR showed that Azerbaijanis aretalented and progressive people."The headof state emphasized that the Azerbaijanistate and the people revere the memory ofthe founders of the ADR. Due to the RepublicDay, all the institutions in the country, diplo-matic representations abroad and diasporaorganizations are holding events.

THE CREATION Of THE AzERbAIJAN DEMOCRATIC REPUbLIC WAS A HISTORICAL EvENT Of gLObAL IMPORTANCE. bECAUSE IT WAS THE fIRSTDEMOCRATIC REPUbLIC IN THEMUSLIM WORLD


Caspian Project 02

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