Case Study : Project Risk Management

Jeremy Harrison

Head of Project Risk & Value Management

The Headline

Case studyProject risk management

• Using scare resources effectively through

riskmanagement• Managing risk profile in a complex

environment• Delivering confidence to stakeholders and

customersJeremy HarrisonHead of Project Risk & Value

Management,NetworkRail

The Possession

• The Problem

• The Response – the detail

• The Effect – the benefits.

Possessions

• What are ‘possessions’?

– What do we want? – confidence in hand back to operation.

• Mini projects within the overall project with

Start and End points

• Worksites within possessions.

An example – possession complexity

TLP Core Area possession

TLP Other works

TLP Outer Areas possession

ATF cable works

Platform

electrical works

Harpenden

bridge works

Bi-diturnback West

HampsteadOLE works

Blackfriars

Bridge Slide

Fleet Sewer

Diversion

Farringdon

Jn

Manhole 4ATF prep works

BFR CTK ZFD

SPI

MOG ZBB

KTN WHPEPH STP

CRI HEN MIL ELS RDT SAC HPD LTN LUT LEA HLN FLT BDM

KGX FPK

BFR CTK ZFD

SPI

MOG ZBB

KTN WHPEPH STP

CRI HEN MIL ELS RDT SAC HPD LTN LUT LEA HLN FLT BDM

KGX FPK

St Albans

track slew

Luton OLE

works

KX possessionKings Cross

Platform Y commissioning

London Bridge Box Works (Maintenance

contracted to manage)

N229 Shard of Glass piling

works

N244 Gipsy Hill TP Hut prep

works

Structure of the Process

• Worksites and hence possessions

booked months (years in advance)

• Worksites – simple risk assessment

– Risk Factor – 1 to 3

– Profile Factor – 1 to 3

– Impact Factor – 1 to 3.

Possession Quantified Schedule Risk Assessment (QSRA)

• What is it in layman's terms?

– Modelling effect of uncertainty and risks on the deterministic plan

– The challenge

• ‘Everything should be made as simple as possible,

but no simpler’ Albert Einstein

• ‘1000 line plans’ into something that can be

modelled.

What was the job?

Tipton Level

Crossing

Replacement

Easter 2009

The context

What is driving the schedule?

0120 - Jack the box (main push) 65%

0160 - Backfill stage 2 42%

0180 - Track ballast lower layer 24%

0190 - Ballast top layer and track laying 24%

0090 - Excvn Stage 3 & bottom up East of S&T 19%

0060 - Excavation stage 1 from West 19%

0140 - Bottom layer stone 13%

0080 - Excavation stage 2 13%

0210 - Tamp track 8%

0220 - Top up ballast etc (incl reinstate track circuit leads, H&S) 5%

0260 - Handback worksite 5%

0050 - Excavation stage 1 from East 4%

0010 - Take possession 3%

0290 - Risk - high winds/weather delays work 1%

Tipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressSchedule Sensitivity Index

Analysis

Simulation: Latin HypercubeIterations: 1000

Schedule Sensitivity Index

Values are displayed for:All tasks in the plan

Display settings

Normal tasks onlyShowing 14 highest tasks

Delivering Confidence

Cum

ula

tive F

requency

Hits

0

29

58

87

116

145

Distribution (start of interval)

13/Apr/09 10:45 13/Apr/09 19:45 14/Apr/09 04:45 14/Apr/09 13:45

5% 13/Apr/09 15:45

10% 13/Apr/09 17:00

15% 13/Apr/09 17:45

20% 13/Apr/09 18:15

25% 13/Apr/09 19:00

30% 13/Apr/09 19:15

35% 13/Apr/09 19:45

40% 13/Apr/09 20:15

45% 13/Apr/09 20:45

50% 13/Apr/09 21:15

55% 13/Apr/09 21:30

60% 13/Apr/09 22:15

65% 13/Apr/09 22:30

70% 13/Apr/09 23:15

75% 13/Apr/09 23:45

80% 14/Apr/09 00:30

85% 14/Apr/09 01:30

90% 14/Apr/09 02:30

95% 14/Apr/09 04:00

100% 14/Apr/09 14:30Analysis

Simulation: Latin HypercubeIterations: 1000

Convergence

Plan Finish Date:Converged in 200 iterations(variation < 1% over 100 iterations)Total Plan Cost:Converged in 200 iterations(variation < 1% over 100 iterations)

Statistics

Minimum: 13/Apr/09 11:00Maximum: 14/Apr/09 14:30Mean: 13/Apr/09 21:15Max Hits: 158Std Deviation: 14.94

Selected Confidence90%: 14/Apr/09 02:30Deterministic Finish: 13/Apr/09 17:45Probability 15%

Tipton Easter possession clamping in lieu weld and stressEntire Plan : Finish Date

Network Rail

Delivering Confidence

Likelihood of completing the works

50% 80% 95%

Possession hand back Time

Tues 14th Apr 05:00

Tues 14th Apr 05:00

Tues 14th Apr 05:00

Modelled Completion Time

Mon 13th Apr 21:15

Tues 14th Apr 00:30

Tues 14th Apr 04:00

Project Float 7hrs 45mins 4hrs 30mins 1hr

The QSRA

• Creating confidence

– 90% confidence as normal threshold

– The other 10% -

• Contingency planning for the works

• Contingency planning for the train service

– Using the QSRA to full advantage

• When do you need to react?

The QSRA Programme

ID DescriptionRemainingDuration Start Finish

XMAS 2009

XMAS 2009.4

XMAS 2009.4.0010

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0420

A5560

A5570

A5580

A5590

A5600

A5610

A5660

A5670

A5680

A5690

A5700

A5710

A5770

A5780

A5790

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0400.0430

A5720

A5730

A5740

A5750

A5760

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0080

A5170

A5170: B

A5170:035

A5180

A5180: B

A5180:035

WK40-2100

WK40-2105

WK40-2105: B

WK40-2105:021

WK40-2175

WK40-2240

WK40-2355

WK40-3350

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0110

A5370

A5380

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0380

A1460

A2140

A2140: B

A2140:040

A2370

A3090

A3120

A5190

BF0005

BF1660

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0390

A1600

A5010

A5035

A5040

A5050

A5450

A5460

A5470

A5480

A5490

A5500

A5510

A5520

BF1640

BF1670

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0140

A5390

A5400

XMAS 2009.4.0010.3

WK40-6

WK40-6: B

WK40-6:015

WK40-6:018

WK40-6:019

WK40-6:022

WK40-6000

WK40-6010

WK40-7

XMAS 2009.4.0010.0120

Master Programme - Christmas 2009

Farringdon Integrated Programme

Possession Milestones & Key Events

HANDOVER MILESTONES

Mainline Works

N246 - Support Works Part 1 Complete

Start of CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works

CoLOR Works Part 1 Complete - Fleet Sewer Works

Start of N246 Support Works Part 2

CoLOR Works Part 2 Complete - Manhole 4 Construction

Start of N246 Support Works Part 3

N246 - Main Line Completion of Plain Lining for WSRL

WSRL - Start of Cable/Equipment Re-Instatement

0440 - CoLOR Float of 24hrs in main programme but exclude...

WSRL - Cable/Equipment Re-Instatement Complete

WSRL - Test Track Circuit in P'Way Area Complete

N246 - Support Works Part 3 Complete - Siding Reinstateme...

WSRL - Start of Wheels Free Correspondence Testing

WSRL - Wheels Free Correspondence Testing Complete

N246 - Start of Signal Documentation

Smithfield Sidings Work

WSRL - Start Recconection/Test Smithfields Sidings

WSRL - Recconection/Test Smithfields Sidings Complete

WSRL - Start Test & Correspond Track Circuits

WSRL - Test & Correspond Track Circuits Complete

N246 - Site Handback Checks

NR Possession & Handback - Main Line

Train Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)

Train Movement - Train Arrival (TBC)

RS: Class 73 loco failure

Train Movement - Train Departs (TBC)

Train Movement - Train Departs (TBC)

RS: Class 73 loco failure

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Setup Worksite/ Issue Permits

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (...

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Take Possession/Isolation (AC & DC)

RISK - Late Hand Over of Possession - 5% 0.25h 0.5h 0.5h

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Start of Possession (Poss R...

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Energise & Handback AC/DC

NR Possession Main Line TLP - End of Possession (Poss Re...

NR Possession Main Line TLP - Works Complete

N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding

N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding Com...

Start of N246 Support Works Part 1 - Remove Mainline & Siding

WRSL Works - R North

Shorten Possession

Take Possession & Isolation

Take Possession & Isolation

Late possession and isolation for St Pancras Bi-Di

Start of Wheels Free Testing - R North

Sign Out Signalling

Sign Signalling Back Into Use - R North

COSS Briefings

Start of Possession

End of Possession - R North

WRSL Works - R South

R South Disconnection

Testing Documentation

Sign Smithfield Sidings Back Into Use

Handback Possession - R South

Start of Wheels Free Testing - R South

Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Main Line

Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Main Line

S&T Testing - Main Line

S&T Testing Completed- Main Line

Fit S&T Cables & Equipment - Smithfield Sidings

Fit S&T Cables & Equipment Completed- Smithfield Sidings

S&T Testing - Smithfield Sidings

S&T Testing Completed - Smithfield Sidings

Sign-in Signalling - R South

End of Possession - R South

N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Line Dbl Jnc

Start of N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl ...

N246 Works - Moorgate Branch Recovery & Plain Dbl Jnc Co...

CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works

Mobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)

Mobilise Plant into Position (CoLOR Fleet Sewer Works)

RISK - RRV Breakdown - 20% 1h 2h 3h

RISK - Operator Illness - 1% 1h 2h 3h

RISK - Off track access blocked by others (Access point pending) - ...

RISK - Disruption by third Parties (NR track replacement etc) - 20% 3...

Start of CoLOR Works Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works

CoLORWorks Part 1 - Fleet Sewer Works Completed

Protect Existing Track & S&T

N246 Support Works Part 2 - Main Line Reinstatement

202.00h

201.75h

201.75h

190.25h

181.50h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

8.75h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

145.00h

0.25h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.75h

1.50h

1.50h

0.00h

0.00h

1.50h

0.00h

0.00h

6.00h

0.00h

0.00h

49.50h

1.00h

1.50h

1.50h

0.00h

0.00h

0.25h

0.50h

0.75h

0.00h

0.00h

196.75h

2.50h

1.00h

0.25h

0.50h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

29.50h

0.00h

0.00h

99.00h

6.00h

6.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

0.00h

6.00h

35.25h

24/12/2009 23:15

24/12/2009 23:30

24/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 08:45

29/12/2009 11:45

01/01/2010 15:45

30/12/2009 01:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 18:00

30/12/2009 22:00

01/01/2010 21:15

01/01/2010 21:15

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 05:45

24/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 01:45

30/12/2009 02:15

30/12/2009 02:15

25/12/2009 01:00

24/12/2009 23:30

24/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 01:00

*24/12/2009 23:30

30/12/2009 23:00

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 01:45

24/12/2009 23:30

27/12/2009 00:00

24/12/2009 23:30

24/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 11:00

25/12/2009 01:00

26/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 01:00

*24/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 01:45

30/12/2009 22:00

02/01/2010 06:15

30/12/2009 23:00

30/12/2009 18:00

29/12/2009 23:00

30/12/2009 12:00

01/01/2010 21:15

02/01/2010 03:45

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 08:45

25/12/2009 08:45

25/12/2009 08:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 08:45

25/12/2009 14:45

29/12/2009 11:45

02/01/2010 09:15

02/01/2010 09:15

02/01/2010 09:15

02/01/2010 06:00

01/01/2010 21:15

25/12/2009 07:45

29/12/2009 11:45

01/01/2010 15:45

30/12/2009 01:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 18:00

01/01/2010 21:15

30/12/2009 22:00

02/01/2010 06:00

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 05:45

31/12/2009 00:30

25/12/2009 02:00

25/12/2009 01:45

30/12/2009 02:15

30/12/2009 02:15

30/12/2009 02:15

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:00

31/12/2009 00:30

31/12/2009 00:30

30/12/2009 23:00

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 07:45

27/12/2009 01:00

27/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:00

25/12/2009 01:15

27/12/2009 00:00

25/12/2009 01:45

27/12/2009 01:00

02/01/2010 06:30

25/12/2009 04:15

30/12/2009 23:00

02/01/2010 06:30

30/12/2009 23:30

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 18:00

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 05:45

30/12/2009 23:00

30/12/2009 23:30

26/12/2009 13:15

26/12/2009 13:15

29/12/2009 11:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

25/12/2009 14:45

29/12/2009 11:45

25/12/2009 20:45

30/12/2009 23:00

MinimumDuration

MostLikely

MaximumDuration

0.50h

0.50h

0.50h

1.00h

0.25h

1.00h

1.00h

0.75h

0.25h

0.25h

0.25h

0.25h

2.00h

0.75h

0.25h

0.25h

5.00h

1.00h

1.00h

3.00h

3.00h

1.00h

1.00h

1.00h

0.75h

1.50h

0.50h

1.50h

1.00h

1.50h

0.50h

0.25h

0.50h

0.75h

2.50h

1.00h

0.25h

0.50h

6.00h

2.00h

2.00h

6.00h

6.00h

6.00h

1.50h

1.50h

0.75h

2.00h

0.50h

2.00h

1.00h

1.50h

0.50h

0.50h

0.75h

0.75h

3.00h

1.25h

0.25h

0.50h

8.00h

3.00h

3.00h

12.00h

12.00h

8.00h

25 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

26 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

27 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

28 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

29 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

30 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

31 Dec '20091 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

1 Jan '20101 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

2 Jan '20101 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

5%

5%

5%

5%

1%

1%

0%

0%

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 08:45

29/12/2009 11:45

29/12/2009 11:45

01/01/2010 15:45

01/01/2010 15:45

30/12/2009 01:00

30/12/2009 01:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 18:00

01/01/2010 21:15

30/12/2009 18:00

30/12/2009 22:00

30/12/2009 22:00

01/01/2010 21:15

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 05:45

02/01/2010 05:45

25/12/2009 01:45

30/12/2009 02:15

*24/12/2009 23:30

31/12/2009 00:30

30/12/2009 23:00

25/12/2009 07:45

25/12/2009 01:45

25/12/2009 11:00

*24/12/2009 23:30

27/12/2009 01:00

30/12/2009 18:00

29/12/2009 23:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 12:00

30/12/2009 18:00

01/01/2010 21:15

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 03:45

02/01/2010 05:45

30/12/2009 23:00

30/12/2009 23:30

25/12/2009 07:45

26/12/2009 13:15

25/12/2009 08:45

29/12/2009 11:45

Master Programme - Christmas 2009 (Pre-mitigated)

Xmas 2009 Primavera Gantt

Critical Review

• Robust process tested, challenged,

reliable and improving • (QSRA results data analysis)

• Confidence – where are we?

• Interdependences

• Learning

BS31100

• Governance and structure

– Are we doing what we say we are?

• Risk appetite

– What level of risk can we and are we taking?

• The risk management process

– Structured risk assessment process

• Risk response

– Do we have appropriate contingency processes in

place?

What have we learnt?

• Process vs Outcome for creating

confidence - THINKING

• Keep checking

• QSRA accuracy improving

• Quality of planning

• NEVER ASSUME ANY THING