Case Study Nile Basin
Transcript of Case Study Nile Basin
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hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH
hydrophil consulting & knowledge development GmbH
Case study Nile basin:Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design
of the Nile Basin Decision Support System
DI Gerald EDERBurundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
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Project period: July 2007 - May 2008
Client: United Nations Operation and Programme Service;
in support of the Nile Basin Initiative (partnership of all Nile countries)
financed by the World Bank
Objective:
1. Stakeholder consultations in all riparian countries (situation assessment)
2. Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS
3. Development of technical design of DSS tailored to the needs of the Nile
Basin; prepare Terms of Reference ready for implementation
Nile
Needs Assessment for and Conceptual Design of
the Nile Basin Decision Support System
(project title)
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CountriesBurundi
D.R. Congo
Egypt
EritreaEthiopia
Kenya
Rwanda
Sudan
Tanzania
Uganda
BackgroundNile
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Challenges
(Water) stressed system
DroughtFlood riskEnvironmental degradationPoor coverage of water
supply and sanitationFood insecurityPower shortage
Untapped potential for energyand food productionPolitical will for cooperationInternational support
Opportunities
NileBackground
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Situation assessment (i.e.) in the basin based on national and sub-
regional stakeholder consultations
9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)
2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa for EN-region)
Availability and quality of relevant data
Training & awareness raising workshops on IWRM & DecisionSupport Systems Application
9 national training & awareness raising workshops (in 9 countries)
2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region and Addis Ababa
for EN-region)
What is a DSS?
Development of the Nile-Information System ("Nile IS")
Web-based knowledge and information management system
NileProject objective 1:
Situation assessment
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Some of these sub-basins obviouslycontribute more than others
It is also interesting to note how
much water is lost to evaporation
in the Sudd wetlands
and how much is provided by the
Blue Nile
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In an average year the basin receives some 650 mm
of rainfall corresponding to around 1,900 bcm of
water per year.
Long-term mean annual flow at Aswan is only about85 bcm per year, making the annual runoff coefficient
of the basin around 4.5%.
Runoff coefficient of 4.5% is small (e.g. just 10% of
that of the Rhine).This is explained by the fact
that a significant portion of the basin comprises arid
and hyper-arid zones that are large in surface area
yet contribute only negligibly to basin runoff. Added to this are the evaporation losses from major
swamp areas which cause up to 30% of the basins
rainfall to be lost before being used for any purpose.
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In general terms the northern ca.1/3 of the basin,
effectively receives negligible rainfall(with the exception of the small coastal margins of the Main
Nile)
The very eastern margins of the basin has thepossibility of rainfall throughout the year
The remainder of the basin (ca. 2/3) receives rainfall on
a seasonal basis
Seasonal Rainfall Coverage
JAN FEB MAR
APR MAY JUN
JUL AUG SEP
OCT NOV DEC
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It is estimated that although only Egypt
faces physical water scarcity in the
short to medium future (i.e. to 2025)BUT ALL the other riparian countries
face or will face economic scarcity.
Given the economic predominance of
agriculture it is interesting to consider
water availability in terms of the annual
growing season
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NileSituation
assessment
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Demographic developments
2.82.0
2.23.22.22.0
1.83.02.9
9010
79803739
95755
8863
608059
83
586890
11140
123455668
7623265
241945
2,50526
5801,104
1,0012,34427,8
2738399
3275
77547
UgandaTanzania
SudanRwandaKenyaEthiopia
EgyptDR CongoBurundi
Populationgrowth
(%)
Populationin
Nile Basin(%)
Populationin
rural area(%)
Populationdensity
Surfacearea
PopulationCountry
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Public administrationorganizationstructure
Districts and municipalities-Central StateUganda
Districts and municipalities26 Regions2 GovernmentsUnion StateTanzania
Districts and municipalitiesProvinces25 StatesFederal StateSudan
DistrictsProvincesCentral StateRwanda
Districts and municipalitiesProvincesCentral StateKenya
Districts (Woheda)(Zonal Offices)9 Regional states and 2autonomous cityadministrations
Federal StateEthiopia
Districts and municipalities27 governoratesCentral StateEgypt
Districts11 provincesincluding Kinshasa
Central StateDR Congo
Districts17 provinces and 1city administration
Central StateBurundi
Local governmentRegionalgovernmentState governmentsCentralgovernmentMembers
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Socio-economiccharacteristics
8752?31078Uganda*
92625.628079Tanzania
7864851957Sudan
6461?
25090Ruanda
87316.251280-90Kenya
81117.143081Ethiopia*
96946.9430042Egypt
8926?69770-75DR Congo
9661?11080-90Burundi
Domestic watersupply coverage -
urban
Domesticwater supplycoverage -
rural
% Economicgrowth
GDP percapita(US$)
% inagricultural
sector
Members
Source FAO Aquastat 2005 except for Rwanda: Enquente Intgre sue les Conditions des Vies des mnages (EICV 1 and 2)
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% of hydropower produced by riparian states
After completions Merowe plant 2010
Three new plants (2000 MW) under construction% Declined due to sharp increase of demand
30%
96%15%
95%
UgandaTanzania
SudanRwandaKenyaEthiopiaEgyptDR Congo
Burundi
RemarksProportionfrom
hydropower
Country
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Key Environmental Issues
Wetlands, lake degradation and biodiversity loss
Water quality degradationSedimentation
Sea water intrusion
Floods and droughts
Transboundary environmental issues
Physical or chemical impact across national boundaries downstream
Degradation of wetlands and lakes
Need for transboundary cooperation to protect key habitats
Lack of early warning systems
Spread of exotic and invasive water weeds
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Second round of national and sub-regional stakeholder
consultations in all riparian countries
9 national consultation workshops (in 9 countries)
2 sub-regional consultation workshops (in Kigali for NEL-region
and Addis Ababa for EN-region)
Comprehensive assessment of specific needs (concerns) and
DSS requirements
Assessment of associated human capacity issues
NileProject objective 2:Identification of requirements for a Nile Basin DSS(concerns)
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Stakeholders identificationand selection
Definition Stakeholder
A person or a group with a direct interest, involvement orinvestment in an initiative, project or enterprise.
What is a stake in water management?
Different classification categories of stakeholders can be appliedfor specific purposes.
Direct stakeholders to water, like water users or people with no
access to safe water, vs. indirect stakeholders like government
officials in a water resource management function
Public, private and voluntary sector organizations
National, sub-national and supra-national stakeholders
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Stakeholder categories for Nile DSS project
Organizations that take decisionsInstitutions that for the water management and socio-economicdevelopment mandates prepare and take rational and scientificdecisions
Knowledge development partner organizationsInstitutions that can contribute to the development of the knowledgebase and simulating the effects and impact of human interventions inthe river basin or its sub systems
Interested organizationsInstitutions that through their societal functions and involvements in thewater sector have an interest to be informed about forthcominginvestments and water allocation decisions
Data supplying organizationsInstitutions that collect and process climatic, biophysical, hydrometric,spatial and socio-economic data needed for the operation of simulationmodels
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Concerns
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For Society
water supply and sanitation clearly emerges as the
most pressing issue
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For Economy
irrigation and
increased energy demand dominates the issues
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For Natural Resources
wetland degradation,
watershed degradation and
soil/bank erosion are equally important
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Preparation of DSS design specifications of the river basin
planning model
incl. a suite of analytic tools to support multi-objective analysis ofinvestment alternatives
Development of a detailed DSS development plan
incl. training and procurement plans
NileProject objective 3:
Development of technical design of DSS tailored tothe needs of the Nile Basin; prepare Terms of
Reference ready for implementation
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What is a DSS?DSS definition:
A Decision Support System is a
computer based problem solving system
that can
assist non-trivial choice
between alternatives incomplex and controversial domains.
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Multiple conflicting objectives of competing institutions and stakeholders
Multiple criteria
of competing different sectors
Differing rationalities
Lack of accurate data and lack of availability
Uncertainties
Non-trivial choice:
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economic criteria (costs, benefits)
environmental criteria
social criteria
standards (measurements)
perceptions (believes, fears)
political criteria (e.g., equity, security)
regulatory criteria (constraints)
technological criteria (constraints)
Complex and controversial domains multiple criteria:
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A DSS is a computer-based system designed to assist the
process of participatory decision-making.A DSS can assist in:
Defining the Problems and their objectives (using the
knowledge base / information system)Choosing an Alternative between possible actions for
solving complex, non-trivial problems
Making a judgment upon well formulated evaluation
Criteria for the decision-making
What is a DSS?(2)
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A DSS is a common computer-based platform for communication,
information management and analysis of water resources.
It provides a framework for sharing knowledge, understanding
river system behavior, evaluating alternative development andmanagement strategies, and supporting informed decision
making.
What is a DSS for the NBI? (3)
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DSS design principles:
Ease of use
FlexibilityModularity
Openness, transparency
Scientific excellence
Advanced technology
Compatibility, interoperability
Cost efficiency
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Basic Questions (TOR):
What will the system be used for ?
What is the output of the system ?
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What will the system be used for ?
Direct support of the decision making process:
selecting and configuring interventions that address themajor issues:
Structuring the problem, organizing (shared) information basis
Defining a preference structure
Designing alternative solutions (scenario analysis, optimization)
Evaluating alternatives
Ranking and selection of alternatives Monitoring impacts ?
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What is the output of the system ?
Model scenarios, generating alternatives incl.
evaluation (multi-criteria, increase the overall netbenefit), that addresses the stakeholders main issues
(core system)
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Main issues and outputs (1):
Water resources availability: demand/supply, reliability,
supply/demand management
Increased energy demand: hydropower production,
reservoir design/operation
Irrigation: water demand/supply, efficiency, reliability
(availability), production
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Main issues and outputs (2):Watershed degradation: land use change, soil erosion,
runoff patterns (floods)
Soil/bank erosion: flow regime/turbidity, sediment
transport
Water quality/pollution: point/non-point source pollution,allocation/treatment
Droughts and floods: frequency, extent, impacts,
effectiveness of mitigation measures (reservoirs, landuse)
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What is the output of the system ?
Alternative scenarios (interventions), sensitivity analysis
Evaluation: water budgets, impact of interventions on
downstream/overall system
Ranking of alternatives
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Define the Problem (decision situation with regard todifficulties or concerning new opportunities)
Construct a Model that describes the real-world problem
Identify possible Solutions to the modelled problem and
evaluate the solutions
Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to
the problem
a typical trial-and-error approach
The Process of Decision MakingWhat Decision Makers usually do when they make a decision?
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Consider all different alternatives from which to choose
(non-trivial problem)
Predict consequences of uncertainties
Make rapid decision on a changing and controversial
environment
The Process of Decision Making
What Decision Makers usually need to do when they make adecision?
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Decision Makers must be more sophisticated.
They must use new tools and techniques of their fields
They need computer support = Decision Support System
The Process of Decision Making
Which tools may help them?
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1. Problem:
What is wrong?
2. Actions / Preferences:
What are the Opportunities? What do we want?
3. Alternatives:
What can be done?
4. Evaluation:
What does it cost? Not affordable? go to 2 or 3
5. Comparison:
The best Alternative? Not agreed? go to 2, 3, 4
6. Final Decision:
Framework for Decision Making
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The Process of Decision Making
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Nile Information SystemNile