Case Study 1:Case Study 1:Comments on Comments on

Transparency and Transparency and ConservativenessConservativeness

Alan SilayanAlan Silayanklima-Climate Change Centerklima-Climate Change Center

Transparency and Transparency and ConservativenessConservativeness

In the calculation of baseline valuesIn the calculation of baseline values

In assumptions and uncertainties relating to these In assumptions and uncertainties relating to these calculations calculations

Operating assumptionsOperating assumptions

Transparency of Case ITransparency of Case I Method is relatively simple compared to other Method is relatively simple compared to other

methodologies (ie. Afforestation and Reforrestation). methodologies (ie. Afforestation and Reforrestation).

Baseline I uses a simple ‘Average Operation Margin’ Baseline I uses a simple ‘Average Operation Margin’ calculation. (instead of simple OM, Simple adjusted calculation. (instead of simple OM, Simple adjusted OM, Dispatch Data Analysis OM as other options OM, Dispatch Data Analysis OM as other options suggested by ACM0002)suggested by ACM0002)

Use of existing actual or historical emissions Use of existing actual or historical emissions (assumption: calibrated instruments)(assumption: calibrated instruments) For baseline 1: all data taken from steel operations / For baseline 1: all data taken from steel operations /

power plants and IPCC data guidelinespower plants and IPCC data guidelines For baseline 2: data taken from public database and For baseline 2: data taken from public database and

IPCC guidelines and steel operationsIPCC guidelines and steel operations

Transparency of Case ITransparency of Case I Only one source of data for steel operations data Only one source of data for steel operations data

and power plant data. and power plant data.

Comment: Preferable third party dataComment: Preferable third party data

Comment: Operation Margin and Build Margin Comment: Operation Margin and Build Margin inadequately defined therefore baseline II is not as inadequately defined therefore baseline II is not as intuitive as baseline I.intuitive as baseline I.

Assumption: data is readily available and is Assumption: data is readily available and is reliable for use by the validator / verifier.reliable for use by the validator / verifier.

Conservativeness of Case Conservativeness of Case II

Ultimate effects of the CDM project is uncertain. Thus, Ultimate effects of the CDM project is uncertain. Thus, conservative assumptions that are likely to conservative assumptions that are likely to underestimate rather than overestimate project underestimate rather than overestimate project reductions should be adopted.reductions should be adopted.

Conservativeness also depends highly on accuracy of Conservativeness also depends highly on accuracy of data provided.data provided.

Project assumes that steel mill will operate with a Project assumes that steel mill will operate with a consistent supply of BOF waste gases - ie. BOF gas consistent supply of BOF waste gases - ie. BOF gas stored in the Gas Holder will be able to consistently stored in the Gas Holder will be able to consistently supply the fuel demands of the existing power plant supply the fuel demands of the existing power plant and/or proposed power plant.and/or proposed power plant.

Conservativeness of Case Conservativeness of Case 11

Net Calorific Value (TJ/10Net Calorific Value (TJ/1033 tons); Carbon Emission Factor tons); Carbon Emission Factor (tC/TJ) and Oxidation Factors taken from IPCC guidelines(tC/TJ) and Oxidation Factors taken from IPCC guidelines

““All values of the parameter to be used for computation of All values of the parameter to be used for computation of emissions should be taken as maximum, minimum or 95% emissions should be taken as maximum, minimum or 95% of spatial and temporal values in a way that demonstrates of spatial and temporal values in a way that demonstrates that the emission reduction value is conservative and not that the emission reduction value is conservative and not overstated/ doubly accounted” – NMB sec. Goverstated/ doubly accounted” – NMB sec. G

Potential impacts of uncertainties must be at least Potential impacts of uncertainties must be at least qualitatively understood (ie. Economic factors) – qualitatively understood (ie. Economic factors) – appropriate decisions in the interest of conservatism be appropriate decisions in the interest of conservatism be made – NMB sec. F (assessment of uncertainties)made – NMB sec. F (assessment of uncertainties)

Conservativeness of Case Conservativeness of Case II

From ACM0002: possible leakageFrom ACM0002: possible leakage Power plant constructionPower plant construction Fuel handling (extraction, processing and transport)Fuel handling (extraction, processing and transport) Land inundationLand inundation

““Project participants need not consider these Project participants need not consider these emission sources as leakage in applying this emission sources as leakage in applying this methodology”.methodology”.

Thank YouThank You