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1. Scenario Description (Initiating Event) B. School Business manager resigns suddenly one year after opening to head or run

another school nearby.

C. Potential Causes (factors that could lead to the initiating event occurring) Better offer from competition (Salary and Remuneration) School owner not resident in town. Supervision level not stringent enough increasing her chances of

securing other jobs at the expense of company time and growth. Low school patronage might cause a dissipation of energy and courage Manager s competence not matching responsibility level, leading to further loss of enthusiasm on the

job. Personality Conflict with business owner Low worker commitment and attitudes in the country Lack of detailed, written and communicated school management process and procedure No identification of clear career path or other benefits to school manager besides the personal

vision of the owner. i.e. Remuneration, Welfare and Growth plan Detractor influence to destabilize business interest.

D. Potential Consequences (Final outcomes/Impact) Severe business interruption Reputation damage. Difficulty in rebuilding after forced closure Destabilization of focus by Business owner in current job location. Emotional stress. Possible abandonment of project until retirement, leading to tying down funds for a term longer than

planned. Significant loss of students to competing schools

E. Probability Analysis (Used as guide to select Probability on Matrix based on experience/past events) It is fairly common in Nigeria for workers to resign Far distance of owner to business increases the likelihood More likely that the manager maybe selected based more in relationship to owner that by

competency. School owners unwillingness to face the school bu siness as a direct endeavour as opposed to a side

business. Difficulty in achieving loyalty from workers when the business owner is engaged in anotheractive work.

Incident is fairly common.F. Consequence Analysis (Guide to select Consequence Severity on Matrix based on experience/past

events) School owner being far away, increases the extent of impact when it occurs Schools are very sensitive to disruptions to continuity. Recovery after event may be extremely

difficult.

G. Existing Safeguards/Controls : Prevention Nothing

H. Existing Safeguards/Controls : Mitigation Nothing

I. Risk Estimate (Before Recommendations) SEVERE x FREQUENT = HIGH Risk

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J. Recommendations (To reduce Risk to acceptable level)

Consider postponing resumption until she is ready to take up direct roles in Management Consider employing two equal level managers for start-up Consider taking a 2-Year sabbatical to start-up the school and evaluate practical potentials and

decide whether to resign in full or not. Consider using a Dummy business owner Consider employing an Expatriate to run the school (Risk of kidnapping) Consider alternative investment options.

K. Risk Estimate (After factoring the effects of recommendations)

Medium Risk