Carteret County Public Schoolsfile/OR… · Water service and wells comprise water service in...
Transcript of Carteret County Public Schoolsfile/OR… · Water service and wells comprise water service in...
Carteret County Public Schools2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study
OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON
C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY
A P R I L 5 , 2 0 1 6
2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study
Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)
A data-focused membership and utilization forecast for Carteret County Public Schools. Membership Forecasting Land Use Studies Out-of-Capacity Analysis School Site Optimization Attendance Boundary Optimization
About ITRE and OREd
The Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) is an inter-institutional research center serves all 16 statewide University of North Carolina systems and partners.
ITRE conducts surface, water, and air transportation research, while providing professional training and technical assistance.
The Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) assists K-12 school systems by providing decision management tools for issues pertaining to student assignment and long-range school planning.
OREd uses GIS analysis, mathematical modeling, and decision science applications to guide school districts to planning solutions that are driven by data and supported by district policy.
• Alamance-Burlington School System – 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13
• Asheboro City Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07• Berkeley County Schools (SC) – 09, 10, 11, 12• Bladen County Schools – 04• Buncombe County Schools – 98, 99• Brunswick County Schools – 03, 04• Cabarrus County Schools – 12, 14• Carteret County Public Schools – 09, 15• Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 05,
06, 07, 12• Chatham County Schools – 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,
15• Craven County Schools – 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07,
08, 12, 14• Cumberland County Schools – 08, 09• Cleveland County Schools – 08• Currituck County Schools – 09, 10• Duplin County Schools – 08, 09• Durham Public Schools – 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• Edgecombe County Public Schools – 09 • Elizabeth City-Pasquotank County Schools – 07• Florence County School District 1 (SC) - 15 • Franklin County Schools – 08, 11, 12• Gaston County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Granville County Schools – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10• Guilford County Schools – 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15• Harnett County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,
11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Haywood County Schools – 99• Hoke County Schools – 99, 08, 09, 11, 12• Iredell-Statesville Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Johnston County Schools – 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03,
04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Jones County Schools – 08
• Lee County Schools – 08, 09• Lenoir County School – 09• Moore County Schools – 04, 06, 07, 08, 12, 13, 14, 15• Mooresville Graded Schools – 99, 00, 01, 04• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• New Hanover County Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00• Onslow County Schools – 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,
14, 15• Orange County Schools – 95, 09, 10, 11, 13• Pamlico County Schools – 09• Pender County Schools – 13 , 14, 15• Randolph County Schools – 05, 06, 07, 08, 09• Richmond County Schools – 00, 08• Robeson County Schools – 08• Rock Hill Schools (SC) – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,
15• Rowan County Schools – 09, 14, 15• Pitt County Schools – 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01,
02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13• Stafford County Public Schools (VA) – 12, 14, 15 • Stanly County Schools – 12• Stokes County Schools – 05, 06, 08• Transylvania County Schools – 14 • Tupelo Public Schools (MS) – 07• Union County Schools – 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07• Vance County Schools – 09• Wayne County Schools – 95• Wake County Public School System – 97, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,
11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools – 14, 15
OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA R C H A N D E D U C AT I ON
2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study
Community Interviews
GIS Analysis
Data and Trends Membership Forecast
Out-of-Capacity Table
Community Interviews Met with Carteret County and Municipal stakeholders in
Interviews between January 19 and January 21, 2016 Interview Roster:
Carteret County; Morehead City and the towns of Atlantic Beach, Beaufort, Bogue, Cape Carteret, Cedar Point, Emerald Isle, Indian Beach, Newport, Peletier and Pine Knoll Shores; Carteret County Chamber of Commerce; Carteret County Economic Development Council; Carteret Craven Electrical Cooperative
Refer to Carteret County Public Schools – IPSAC Land Use Study Report for more detailed information (April 5, 2016)
Community Interviews Four complementary pillars of growth in Carteret County: proximity to
Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point and Camp Lejeune, pristine coastal tourism, the Port of Morehead City, and the Marine Lab Research Centers
Construction projects on US 70 and 101 anticipated to spur additional commercial activity, investment and tourism due to decreased travel times
Competing demands for housing Retirement and Vacation Destination Local Families with Incomes near the Median Household Income
Significant Growth Factor: presence and/or absence of Sewer Service Driving growth potential in Newport and Beaufort Restricting growth options in non-sewer service areas of Carteret County
Community InterviewsWater and Sewer Water service and wells comprise water service in Carteret County Sewer available in a few municipalities; otherwise septic systems prevail
Transportation Significant projects will lead to new traffic flows into, out of, and within Carteret
County communities. Upgrades to US 70 and the new Gallant’s Channel Bridge and re-route of US 70 around Downtown Beaufort are major projects
Non-Residential Development At time of interviews, no major commercial or industrial developments planned
to come into the County over the next 5-10 years Points of emphasis were maintaining the County’s role in supporting MSAC
Cherry Point via the MCOLF near Atlantic and Bogue Field. Support includes providing quality schools and affordable housing options for military families
Community InterviewsResidential Development
A number of large-scale developments are currently under construction in Carteret County. There is a sizeable inventory of approved but undeveloped lots. These developments range in location and anticipated sales price.
The largest residential developments under construction were North River Club, Bogue Watch, Cannonsgate, Mariners Pointe, Merrimon Bay, Sportsman Village, and Sea Gate II. Other developments with large construction potential include Star Hill, Silver Creek, White Oak Bluffs, Stanton Landing and Marsh Harbour.
Locations of anticipated future residential development include: Heritage Place in Newport (approx. 330 units); the SAS development in Beaufort (approx. 790 units). Given their sewer capacity, it is anticipated that Newport, Beaufort and Morehead City are areas with additional growth potential
Subdivision Development Construction Progress as of Winter 2016
Development Total Approved Lots Constructed Homes Vacant Lots
North River Club 500 50 450
Bogue Watch 291 75 216
Cannonsgate 525 34 491
Sportsman Village 307 69 238
Merrimon Bay 181 3 178
Sea Gate II 524 175 349
Mariners Pointe 152 41 111
Residential Developments with the Largest Number of Approved Units (Construction Forthcoming)
Development Total Approved Units
SAS Phase I 791
Heritage Place 334
Best Ventures Apartments 232
GIS AnalysisGeographic Information Systems (GIS) can provide a spatial link between data collected during the Community Interviews and district membership forecasts.
GIS data includes streets, parcels, subdivision footprints, and school locations.
GIS AnalysisResidential Geo-database
Identify residential type: SF, MF, TH, CONDO, MHP
Identify subdivisions/ neighborhoods
Calculate developed/ available lots
Calculate Student Generation Ratio (SGR)
White Oak Bluff
92 developed lots
SGR = 0.33 stdnts/lot
GIS Analysis
Riverwatch
46 developed lots
SGR = 0.95 stdnts/lot
GIS Analysis
North River Club
50 developed lots
SGR = 0.45 stdnts/lot
GIS Analysis
Marsh Harbour
100 developed lots
SGR = 1.10 stdnts/lot
GIS Analysis
Beaufort East Village
791 lots/units expected
GIS Analysis
Heritage Place
334 lots/units expected
GIS Analysis
GIS AnalysisThe district-wide single family Student Generation Ratio is about 0.50 students/developed lot.
Results of GIS Analysis are used as an input for the membership forecast.
Data and TrendsIndicator Carteret County North Carolina
Estimated Percent Population Increase April 2010 – July 2013
4.2% 3.4%
Net In-Migration Population Increase April 2010 – July 2013
5.0% 2.1%
Median Household Income 2010-2014
$47,179 $46,693
Projected Population Increase 2010-2020
5.9% 10.9%
Sources: NC OSBM State Demographics Unit, US Census
Data and TrendsCounty Resident Live Births:• 581 RLB in 2014• Downward/flat RLB trend since 2006
CCPS Month-2 ADM:• 8363 K-12 in 2015-16 (NC DPI)• - 10 per year since 2010-11
Membership Forecast
Membership forecasts are based on:
Historical membership data – How do students advance through the K-12 system?
Land Use data – Where are the growth potentials?
Membership Forecast
Forecast Assumptions:
Flat trend in RLB Approved subdivisions will develop at
moderate rate
In-migration will bolster population growth
Membership ForecastComparison of K-12 Forecast Models
Membership ForecastOREd Cohort-Feeder Forecast Model
Average forecasted annual K-12 growth rate = 0.45%
The Out-of-Capacity table combines the membership forecast with capacity information provided by CCPS.
Forecasted Month-2 ADM by school
Program Capacities
Color-coded by Utilization
Out-of-Capacity Analysis
2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Table - by Level
2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Table - by HS Area
2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Map – High Schools
Utilization: 2020-21
Utilization: 2025-26
Carteret County Public Schools2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study
OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON
C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY
A P R I L 5 , 2 0 1 6