Operational modeling of waves and currents at beach and harbor scales The CariCOOS T EAM
CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan...
Transcript of CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan...
![Page 1: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juan
Scott StriplingJeffrey CupoNOAA NWS
San Juan, Puerto Rico
![Page 2: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Current CARICOOS Supportof NWS San Juan
USF MODIS regional mapped products• true color imagery for dust, ash detection• regional SSTs, chlorophyll
![Page 3: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Current CARICOOS Supportof NWS San Juan
• Testing, development stage of high resolution wind (WRF) and wave (SWAN) modeling
• UPRM/NWS San Juan collaboration
![Page 4: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Current Available Observations
Remotely sensed products• Scatterometers – QuikScat, ASCAT, WindSAT• SSM/I – derived wind velocities • Altimetry – ocean circulation, wave height• TPW• SST’s
![Page 5: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Current Available Observations
• CARICOOS interactive map for regional observations
• Mostly land based or coastal observations
![Page 6: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Current Available Observations
• NDBC interactive map of Caribbean region• Mixture of platforms, funding agencies, coding• Only 1 buoy in local waters (USACE) 41140
![Page 7: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NWS San Juan Marine Area
• Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between 19.5N -17.0N, and 68W - 64W, roughly 600 square nm
• Currently only 3 (recent) platforms for true over water observations – 2 AOML CREWS, 1 USACE Waverider buoy
• No comprehensive studies have ever been conducted to accurately depict the trade wind flow around the local islands
• Only course resolution model reanalysis exists to develop regional wind and wave climatology
• NWS San Juan not included in NWS marine verification program. Why? No obs!!!
![Page 8: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
NWS San Juan Marine Needs
• Sufficient observational network of winds and waves in both the near shore and off shore environment
• Dense network of coastal and land obs to monitor precisely the low level wind flow and expected zones of convergence that lead to convection
![Page 9: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Annual Precip Across Puerto Rico
• Dense rain gage network across PR
• Differences exist in analysis
• Low level wind forcing dictates where rain occurs
![Page 10: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
HaRP
• July 19–August 23, 1990 • Study of Big Island of
Hawaii to investigate structure and forcing mechanisms of rainbands
• Data set included 2 NCAR Dopplers, NCAR electra aircraft, very dense meso network (PAMs), wind profiler, rawindsondes
![Page 11: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Reality of NWS Forecasting
• Primarily land based coastal obs available• Airports, NOS tide gages • No HaRP like studies to reveal whether
land obs represent what might be occurring over water
• Wind forecast tends to be strongly influenced by computer model guidance of varying resolutions
![Page 12: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
GFS 18Z winds @ 40km
![Page 13: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NAM 18Z winds @ 12km
![Page 14: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
NAM Closeup
![Page 15: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NAM Closeup
![Page 16: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
WRF 18Z winds @ 4km
![Page 17: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
WRF Closeup
![Page 18: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
WRF Closeup
![Page 19: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Wind Modeling & Forecasting
• Model examples depict typical daytime heating effects on 15 kt trade wind flow
• So which model is most correct?• Insufficient observations to verify• Insufficient research and study to detail
land-sea interaction, daytime, night time changes in wind or “local effects”
• Many more questions than answers
![Page 20: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Hurricane Omar
• GOES image (L) and CIRA multiplatform surface wind analysis (R) as Omar exited St Croix
![Page 21: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Hurricane Omar
• USACE buoy (L) from north coast and NOS tide gage from south coast (R) during passage of Omar
![Page 22: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions from Omar
• Eye of Omar passed just east of St Croix - Cat 3• Peak measured winds St Croix 88 mph• Peak measured seas ~ 4 meters• However, no observations along east and southeast coasts to
indicate max winds, waves and storm surge
![Page 23: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
NWS San Juan Support from CARICOOS
• OBSERVATIONS!!!• Continued support of
UPRM-NWS partnership – modeling, research
• Develop plan for HaRPlike project for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands
• Assist NWS in establishing and maintaining a spotter network across the region
• Develop oceanographic database to support seasonal climatic forecasting
![Page 24: CARICOOS Support of NWS San Juancara.uprm.edu/o/media/Presentacion 3rd Council/CaRA.pdfNWS San Juan Marine Area • Responsible for marine forecasts, watches, warnings for area between](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042806/5f6ac2b76606d34e832eb46e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Adios Amigos
Looking forward to serving CaRA and the regional needs from the National Hurricane Center.
Keep my chair warm. I’ll be back!!Scott