Carbon Emissions

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil

fuels 

+ Net emissions from changes in land use 

- Oceanic uptake 

- Terrestrial sinks

Humans emit 24 billion tons per year.

60% stays in atmosphere Increases atmospheric CO2

by 0.4% / year. 25% increase from

280 ppm to 350 ppm

Atmospheric CO2

CO2 550 ppm to 1000 ppm in 2100

Temperature Increase: 1.5 oC – 6 oC by 2100

Adaptation and Mitigation

What are some adaptation steps?

Protect endangered species with larger refuges.Avoid flooding risks.Protect water supplies.Protect grasslands and agricultural lands against overuse.

Mitigation

Protection of rainforests and other CO2 sinks.

Techniques to sequester CO2

Reduce CO2 emissions by reducing fossil fuel consumption

Mitigation: Carbon Sequestration

Mitigation: Reduce Fossil Fuel Emission

We will address this issue in the remainder of the course.

Carbon Emission Coefficient(Million Metric Tons of Carbon/QBtu)

Coal 26

Oil 19

Natural Gas 14

Global Carbon Emission

Global Carbon Emission of C in the form of CO2:

6.6 billion metric tons

Convert to CO2:

44/12 x 6.6 billion metric tons

= 24 billion metric tons

Calculate US Carbon Emissions

US Carbon Emission =

26 MMT/QBtu x 22 QBtu

+ 19 MMT/QBtu x 38 Qbtu

+ 14 MMT/QBtu x 23 QBtu

= 1.6 Billion Metric Tons

Calculate US Carbon Emissions

US / Global

= 1.6 BMT / 6.6 BMT

= 24 %

The US emits 24% of Global CO2.

Kyoto Protocol

Greenhouse Gases

The relative contribution of the major GHG to global warming are shown below:– CO2 84%

– CH4 9%

– N2O 5%

CO2 emissions are associated with consumption of Fossil Fuels

US CO2 emissions are 24% of global emissions.

– Global: 24,500 million tons

– US: 5,800 million tons

Global CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly

Global CO2 Emissions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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1990 emissions21,638 Million Tons

The Kyoto Protocol is an International Treaty to Reduce GHG emission

Organized by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan

Will come into force early in 2005.

Annex I countries have a crucial role.

Between 2008-2012 reduce their GHG emissions by 5% below 1990 levels.

Different countries would have different targets.

US had agreed to reduce by 7% below 1990 levels.

Countries may offset emissions by increasing sinks.

Annex I Countries

24 developed countries (OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)

European Union14 countries with

economies in transition. (e.g. Croatia)

Kyoto Treaty Ratification

127 parties have signed it. Countries accounting for 55% of

CO2 emissions in 1990 had to sign it for it to come into effect.

When Russia ratified it, the signatories represented 61% of 1990 emissions.

The US has not signed the treaty.

Developing Nations

Obligated to reduce GHG emissions.

Do not have specific emission reduction targets.

Treaty has provisions to help LDC reduce GHG emissions.

Innovative Mechanisms:Joint Implementation

An Annex I party develops a project that decreases emissions or increases sinks in another Annex I party.

Innovative Mechanisms:Clean Development Mechanism

An Annex I party implements CO2 sequestration or emission reduction projects in a non-Annex I party (e.g. reforestation in Costa Rica) and receives credits to meet its own targets.

Innovative Mechanisms:Emissions Trading

An Annex I party transfers some of its emissions to another country for a price. This process allows the free market to operate to reduce the cost of emissions reduction. Companies that broker deals already exist.

Why didn’t the US ratify Kyoto?

US energy-related CO2 emissions in 2010 are projected to be 34 percent above the 1990 level.

Emission reduction policy to reduce emissions would have significant impacts on the US economy.

No emission targets for China & India

What steps could the US take to reduce CO2 emissions?

We will look at this question in detail during the remainder of the semester.