Reduction of Energy Consumption and GHGs Emission in Conventional
Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs...
-
Upload
gilbert-owens -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
0
Transcript of Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs...
![Page 1: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Carbon emission metrics for Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and climate stabilization and the implications to metricsthe implications to metricsfor non-CO2 GHGsfor non-CO2 GHGs
Michio KawamiyaResearch Institute for Global ChangeJapan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology
![Page 2: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction: limitation of Introduction: limitation of single basket approachsingle basket approach
“Methane+640GtC” and “1280GtC, No Methane” have the same forcing in terms of GWP.
-> “Single basket approach” does not work for discussing stabilization levels. (Eby et al., 2009; Solomon et al., 2011)
Forcings for these two lines have the same value of GWP.
GTP is superior when discussing stabilization
![Page 3: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Different roles of short-lived Different roles of short-lived and long-lived agentsand long-lived agents
Short-lived: “trim” the peakLong-lived: determine the stabilization level
“Two-basket approach” is proposed ( Solomon et al., 2011)
-> GTP for short-lived agents Cumulative emission for long-lived agents
![Page 4: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
CO2 concentration has been CO2 concentration has been often used as a carbon often used as a carbon emission metrics…emission metrics…
IPCC AR5 WG3 (2007)
![Page 5: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
… … then concentration then concentration metrics is converted to metrics is converted to socio-economic scenarios.socio-economic scenarios.
IPCC AR5 WG3 (2007)
CO2 emission paths to achieve CO2 concentration stabilization
![Page 6: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Cumulative carbon emission Cumulative carbon emission as a metric for climate as a metric for climate stabilization level and stabilization level and transient climate responsetransient climate response
Matthews et al. (2009)
![Page 7: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NotificationsNotifications
CCR = T/CE = (T/CA)(CA/CE) = αACCR: Climate-carbon response (matthews et al., 2009)α(=T/CA): Temperature rise per unit airborne carbonA(=CA/CE): Airborne fraction
Cf. Climate sensitivity: λ=T/F F: Radiative forcing
CCR may be regarded as “earth system sensitivity”, with the forcing being anthropogenic carbon emission rather than radiative forcing.
![Page 8: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
CCR may be CCR may be independent independent of scenarioof scenario
1%/year increase
Instanteneous x2 & x4
![Page 9: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
MIROC-ESM: a GCM-basedMIROC-ESM: a GCM-basedEarth System ModelEarth System Model
AGCM
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC
T42(~2.8ºx2.8º)
L80 (TOA:80km)
OGCM
COCO (CCSR/FRCGC)
Curvilinear grid system
(0.5-1.0)º x 1.4º
Atmosphere
Ocean Land
MIROC-AGCM
SPRINTARS (CHASER)
COCO
NPZD
MATSIRO
SEIB-DGVM
MIROC-ESM
![Page 10: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Global warming projection Global warming projection with MIROC-ESM under RCP with MIROC-ESM under RCP scenariosscenarios
![Page 11: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
MIROC-ESM 結果Temperature Rise averaged over 2090’s relative to 1980-1999 average
![Page 12: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Climate Carbon Response in Climate Carbon Response in MIROC-ESMMIROC-ESM
(1) With all anthropogenic forcings (2) non-CO2 GHG corrected CCR
RCP2.6
RCP6.0
RCP4.5RCP8.5
R2.6
R6.0R4.5
R8.5
![Page 13: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Another possible cause for Another possible cause for scenario dependence of CCRscenario dependence of CCR
Global temperaturechangeO
cean
hea
t upt
ake
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario A Scenario B
Changes in ocean heat uptake:Q = SW + LW +SH + LH = T
Efficiency of ocean heat uptake
![Page 14: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(3) Ocean-heat-uptake (OHU) corrected CCR
CCR is moderately scenario dependent in our case, but can be corrected in terms of OHU.
![Page 15: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Airborne CO2 is again not a good metrics…(1) With all anthropogenic forcings (2) non-CO2 GHG corrected
(3) Ocean heat uptake corrected
![Page 16: Carbon emission metrics for climate stabilization and the implications to metrics for non-CO2 GHGs Michio Kawamiya Research Institute for Global Change.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062423/5697bfe21a28abf838cb4346/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Implications for establishing Implications for establishing metrics for short-lived and metrics for short-lived and long-lived GHGslong-lived GHGs It is important to recognize the difference
between short-lived and long-lived GHGs with the same GWP, in particular for discussing climate stabilization.
For stabilization issues, cumulative emission (CE) of long-lived GHGs may be more desirable than concentration.
There may be a moderate scenario dependence of CE, especially for fast scenarios due to that of ocean heat uptake (OHU).
Constraining OHU efficiency may improve the validity of CE as a metrics.