Carbon and Fire Risksoilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/conference/carbon2/Lippke_Baltimore_05.pdf ·...
Transcript of Carbon and Fire Risksoilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/conference/carbon2/Lippke_Baltimore_05.pdf ·...
Carbon and Fire Risk:Alternative Treatments and the
Probability of Fire
USDA Symposium Greenhouse Gases in Agriculture and Forestry:
Refining Knowledge and Building ToolsMarch 23, 2005
Bruce LippkeDirector, Rural Technology Initiative
College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
andPresident of CORRIM
Consortium for Research on Renewable Industrial Materials
A non-profit corporation formed by 15 research institutions to conduct cradle to grave
environmental studies of wood products
Jeffrey ComnickResearch Scientist
ONRCOlympic Natural Resources Center
College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
Background
• The CORRIM report estimated the carbon storage contribution from three pools linked to the forest
1. In the Forest pool
2. In wood products pool (net of energy used and biofuelproduced)
3. Avoided fossil intensive product pool
• A major conclusion was that the highest leverage use of wood is in long lived products that substitute for fossil intensive products
• A second conclusion was the shortest and most intensive rotations that produce long lived products stores the most carbon
Life Cycle Assessment of Wood Products & Buildings
CO2
SUN
Log
O2 CO2 Air EmissionsSUN
Log
O2
Water & Land Emissions
ConstructionManagement & Harvest Production
Life Cycle Inventories: measure all inputs & outputs
Forest Resources & HarvestingPNW and SE
Processing of Structural Materials
PNW and SE
• Lumber
• Plywood
• Glulam
• LVL
• I-joists
• OSB (SE only)
Construction of Virtual Residential Buildings to Code
• Minneapolis wood and steel designs
• Atlanta wood and concrete designs Building
Use and Maintenance
Disposal or
Recycle
“Gate-to-Gate”
“Cradle”
“Grave”
Materials
Energy
Water
Emissions
Effluents
Solid Waste
Products
Co-products
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160
Year
Met
ric T
ons
Per H
ecta
re
Stem Root Crown Litter Dead
Carbon in PNW Forest Pools80-Year Rotation with Two Thinnings
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160Year
Met
ric T
ons
Per H
ecta
re
Chips Lumber HarvEmis ManufEmis Displacement
Carbon in Product PoolsProcessing Energy and Displacement
Summary Performance Indices Atlanta House vs. Above-grade Wall
16%
38%31%
80%
23%
46%
0% 0%
51%
164%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%120%
140%
160%
180%
Con
cret
e vs
. Woo
d D
esig
n (%
)
EmbodiedEnergy
GlobalWarming
AirEmissions
WaterEmissions
SolidWaste
House
Abovegrade Wall
Forest, Product, Emissions, Displacement & Substitution Carbon by Component
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
2105
2110
2115
2120
2125
2130
2135
2140
2145
2150
2155
2160
2165
Year
Met
ric
Tons
Per
Hec
tare
Stem Root Crown Litter Dead Chips Lumber HarvEmis ManufEmis Displacement Substitution
Forestwith Products
with Substitution
Forest, Product and Substitution Pools
Carbon in Forests, Productsand Concrete Frame Substitutes
Averages over time intervals
Problem• This raises several interesting questions for carbon strategy in the
Inland West.– What is the impact of fire which eliminates the opportunity to
produce products and also impedes regeneration and productivity.
– Should the Inland West produce long lived product or biofuels
• Knowing the carbon impact after a range of fire risk reduction treatments (NA, BA45, 9&Under, 12&Up, & Wildfire) is not sufficient.
• We need to know the expected value of carbon which depends upon the probability of fire as a function of the treatment.
• We also need to know the likelihood of producing long lived engineered products vs. biofuel
Methods applied to Okanogan FIA data• Average per acre metric tons of carbon were calculated for each
5-year time period from 1995 to 2030 for NoAction(NA), BA45, 9&Under, 12&Up, and Wildfire treatments.
• Fire risks were estimated using the FVS Fire and Fuel Extension (FFE model) and categorized as Hi, Moderate or Low risk.
• Probability of fire was computed/calibrated at 17% per 5 year period to result in 15% unburned refugia after 50 years based on prior studies.
• 17% of the acres at high risk were burned each period, 8% at moderate risk and 0 % for low risk.
• Composite carbon totals through time were calculated as a percentage of acres treated and whether unburned or burned.
• All treatments occurred in 2000 or were phased in; Fire occurredeach time period.
Assumptions
• Low risk acres don’t burn (or low intensity fire)
• High and Moderate risk acres can only burn once in the period
• After a fire on High and Moderate risk acres the carbon remaining is estimated from post-fire residual stands:– higher in the north (Okanogan)– lower in the south (Fremont)
• Regeneration is assumed and may be excessive (many burned stands may actually be ready for a second burn)
• Snags are decayed (no salvage)
Percent of Landscape in Low Risk Class
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Perc
ent
Acres in Low Risk Class - no fire
Acres burned each period:Okanogan with Regeneration
Percent of Landscape Burned Each Time Per
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year
Increase in high risk acres
Acres unburned :Okanogan with Regeneration
Increase in high risk acres
Percent Unburned
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Percent
Forest Carbon: Okanogan with Regen
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MT
/ Acr
e NA12&Over9&UnderBA45
Forest Carbon:Okanogan with Regeneration
All Carbon: Okanogan with Regen
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MT
/ Acr
e NA12&Over9&UnderBA45
ALL Carbon:Okanogan with Regeneration
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
NA No Fire NA Fire
12 & Over No Fire 12 & Over Fire
9 & Under No Fire 9 & Under Fire
BA45 No Fire BA45 Fire
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
NA No Fire NA Fire
12 & Over No Fire 12 & Over Fire
9 & Under No Fire 9 & Under Fire
BA45 No Fire BA45 Fire
12 & Over:20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each of first 5 periods (2000 – 2020)
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Harvest Volume
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
MBF
0-12" 12-24" 24"+
Structure
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single
Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi
Acres Burned
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Burn
Acres Treated
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Treated
9 & Under:20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each offirst 5 periods (2000 – 2020)
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Harvest Volume
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
MBF
0-12" 12-24" 24"+
Structure
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single
Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi
Acres Burned
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Burn
Acres Treated
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Treated
BA45:20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each offirst 5 periods (2000 – 2020)
Fire Risk
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
High Moderate Low
Carbon
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Metric
Ton
s
Forest Products Substitution
Harvest Volume
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
MBF
0-12" 12-24" 24"+
Structure
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single
Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi
Acres Burned
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Burn
Acres Treated
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Acres
New Treated
Treatments: Fire 9"- 12"+ 45sfBACarbon mil. Tonnes 23.9 26.8 33.1 31.4
Burn 000's acres 557 471 562 377
Harvest mil bft 0 495 5084 3213
Treatments phased in over 25 years
$mils Treatments: Fire 9"- 12"+ 45sfBACarbon Value @$2/T $48 $54 $66 $63Rel Carbon Rev $0 $6 $18 $15
Fire Dept Cost@$2000/acre $1,114 $942 $1,124 $754
Harvest Value@$200/m bf $0 -$30 $1,017 $573rem oval of non-m kt m at'l $300/acre $150/acre
Net Rev-Cost -$1,114 -$978 -$126 -$196
Treatment Costs and Revenues
Conclusions• Fire risk reduction treatments do increase carbon stored
•12 tonnes/acre but the accounting is complex
• Treatment response time reduces benefits (limits reduction in acres burned & delays product carbon)
• 9”&under barely reduces fire risk or cost
• 12+&over produces highest net revenue but maintains high fire risk
•Other non-mkt values (avoided costs) would reduce benefit
• 45sfBA almost as good with fire fighting cost included•Better with other non-mkt benefits included
Support Acknowledgements
• CORRIM- Consortium for Research on Renewable Industrial Materials – 15 research institutions and 23 authors– DOE & 5 companies funded the Research Plan– USFS/FPL, 10 companies & 8 institutions funded Phase I
• PNW & SE product manufactures surveyed
• USDA/CSREES National Research Initiative competitive grants program
• EPA & Special grants for carbon links
The Details
CORRIM: www.CORRIM.ORG
Athena: www.athenaSMI.ca
LMS: http://LMS.cfr.washington.edu
USLCI database: www.nrel.gov/lci