Carbon and Fire Risk:Alternative Treatments and the

Probability of Fire

USDA Symposium

Greenhouse Gases in Agriculture and Forestry: Refining Knowledge and Building Tools

March 23, 2005

Bruce LippkeDirector, Rural Technology Initiative

College of Forest Resources, University of Washington

andPresident of CORRIM

Consortium for Research on Renewable Industrial Materials

A non-profit corporation formed by 15 research institutions to conduct cradle to grave environmental

studies of wood products

Jeffrey Comnick

Research Scientist

ONRCOlympic Natural Resources Center

College of Forest Resources, University of Washington

Background

• The CORRIM report estimated the carbon storage contribution from three pools linked to the forest

1. In the Forest pool

2. In wood products pool (net of energy used and biofuel produced)

3. Avoided fossil intensive product pool

• A major conclusion was that the highest leverage use of wood is in long lived products that substitute for fossil intensive products

• A second conclusion was the shortest and most intensive rotations that produce long lived products stores the most carbon

Life Cycle Assessment of Wood Products & Buildings

CO2

SUN

Log

O2 CO2 Air EmissionsSUN

Log

O2

Water & Land Emissions

ConstructionManagement & Harvest Production

Life Cycle Inventories: measure all

inputs & outputs Forest

Resources & Harvesting

PNW and SEProcessing of

Structural Materials

PNW and SE

• Lumber

• Plywood

• Glulam

• LVL

• I-joists

• OSB (SE only)

Construction of Virtual Residential Buildings to Code

• Minneapolis wood and steel designs

• Atlanta wood and concrete designs

Building

Use and Maintenance

Disposal or

Recycle

“Gate-to-Gate”

“Cradle”

“Grave”

Materials

Energy

Water

Emissions

Effluents

Solid Waste

Products

Co-products

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160

Year

Metric Tons Per Hectare

Stem Root Crown Litter Dead

Carbon in PNW Forest Pools80-Year Rotation with Two Thinnings

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2160Year

Metric Tons Per Hectare

Chips Lumber HarvEmis ManufEmis Displacement

Carbon in Product PoolsProcessing Energy and Displacement

Summary Performance Indices Atlanta House vs. Above-grade Wall

16%

38%31%

80%

23%

46%

0% 0%

51%

164%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Concrete vs. Wood Design

(%)

Embodied

Energy

Global

Warming

Air

Emissions

Water

Emissions

Solid

Waste

House

Abovegrade Wall

Forest, Product, Emissions, Displacement & Substitution Carbon by Component

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020552060206520702075208020852090209521002105211021152120212521302135214021452150215521602165

Year

Metric Tons Per Hectare

Stem Root Crown Litter Dead Chips Lumber HarvEmis ManufEmis Displacement Substitution

Forestwith Products

with Substitution

Forest, Product and Substitution Pools

Carbon in Forests, Productsand Concrete Frame Substitutes

Averages over time intervals

Problem

• This raises several interesting questions for carbon strategy in the Inland West.– What is the impact of fire which eliminates the opportunity to

produce products and also impedes regeneration and productivity.

– Should the Inland West produce long lived product or biofuels

• Knowing the carbon impact after a range of fire risk reduction treatments (NA, BA45, 9&Under, 12&Up, & Wildfire) is not sufficient.

• We need to know the expected value of carbon which depends

upon the probability of fire as a function of the treatment.

• We also need to know the likelihood of producing long lived engineered products vs. biofuel

Methods applied to Okanogan FIA data• Average per acre metric tons of carbon were calculated for each

5-year time period from 1995 to 2030 for NoAction(NA), BA45, 9&Under, 12&Up, and Wildfire treatments.

• Fire risks were estimated using the FVS Fire and Fuel Extension (FFE model) and categorized as Hi, Moderate or Low risk.

• Probability of fire was computed/calibrated at 17% per 5 year period to result in 15% unburned refugia after 50 years based on prior studies.

• 17% of the acres at high risk were burned each period, 8% at moderate risk and 0 % for low risk.

• Composite carbon totals through time were calculated as a percentage of acres treated and whether unburned or burned.

• All treatments occurred in 2000 or were phased in; Fire occurred each time period.

Assumptions

• Low risk acres don’t burn (or low intensity fire)

• High and Moderate risk acres can only burn once in the period

• After a fire on High and Moderate risk acres the carbon remaining is estimated from post-fire residual stands: – higher in the north (Okanogan) – lower in the south (Fremont)

• Regeneration is assumed and may be excessive (many burned stands may actually be ready for a second burn)

• Snags are decayed (no salvage)

Percent of Landscape in Low Risk Class

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Percent

Acres in Low Risk Class - no fire

Acres burned each period:Okanogan with Regeneration

Percent of Landscape Burned Each Time Period

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Percent

Increase in high risk acres

Acres unburned :Okanogan with Regeneration

Increase in high risk acres

Percent Unburned

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Percent

years

Forest Carbon: Okanogan with Regen

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MT / Acre

NA

12&Over

9&Under

BA45

Forest Carbon: Okanogan with Regeneration

All Carbon: Okanogan with Regen

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MT / Acre

NA

12&Over

9&Under

BA45

ALL Carbon:Okanogan with Regeneration

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

NA No Fire NA Fire

12 & Over No Fire 12 & Over Fire

9 & Under No Fire 9 & Under Fire

BA45 No Fire BA45 Fire

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

NA No Fire NA Fire

12 & Over No Fire 12 & Over Fire

9 & Under No Fire 9 & Under Fire

BA45 No Fire BA45 Fire

12 & Over:

20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each of first 5 periods (2000 – 2020)

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Harvest Volume

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

MBF

0-12" 12-24" 24"+

Structure

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single

Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi

Acres Burned

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Burn

Acres Treated

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Treated

9 & Under:

20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each of first 5 periods (2000 – 2020)

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Harvest Volume

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

MBF

0-12" 12-24" 24"+

Structure

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single

Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi

Acres Burned

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Burn

Acres Treated

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Treated

BA45:

20% of Initially High and Moderate groups treated during each of first 5 periods (2000 – 2020)

Fire Risk

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

High Moderate Low

Carbon

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Metric Tons

Forest Products Substitution

Harvest Volume

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

MBF

0-12" 12-24" 24"+

Structure

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

Grass/Forb Sapling-Single Sapling-Multi Small-Single

Small-Multi Medium-Single Medium-Multi

Acres Burned

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Burn

Acres Treated

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Acres

New Treated

Treatments: Fire 9"- 12"+ 45sfBACarbon mil. Tonnes 23.9 26.8 33.1 31.4

Burn 000's acres 557 471 562 377

Harvest mil bft 0 495 5084 3213

Treatments phased in over 25 years

$mils Treatments: Fire 9"- 12"+ 45sfBACarbon Value @$2/T $48 $54 $66 $63Rel Carbon Rev $0 $6 $18 $15

Fire Dept Cost@$2000/acre $1,114 $942 $1,124 $754

Harvest Value@$200/mbf $0 -$30 $1,017 $573removal of non-mkt mat'l $300/acre $150/acre

Net Rev-Cost -$1,114 -$978 -$126 -$196

Treatment Costs and Revenues

Conclusions

• Fire risk reduction treatments do increase carbon stored •12 tonnes/acre but the accounting is complex

• Treatment response time reduces benefits (limits reduction in acres burned & delays product carbon)

• 9”&under barely reduces fire risk or cost

• 12+&over produces highest net revenue but maintains high fire risk

•Other non-mkt values (avoided costs) would reduce benefit

• 45sfBA almost as good with fire fighting cost included•Better with other non-mkt benefits included

Support Acknowledgements

• CORRIM- Consortium for Research on Renewable Industrial Materials – 15 research institutions and 23 authors– DOE & 5 companies funded the Research Plan– USFS/FPL, 10 companies & 8 institutions funded Phase I

• PNW & SE product manufactures surveyed

• USDA/CSREES National Research Initiative competitive grants program

• EPA & Special grants for carbon links

The Details

CORRIM: www.CORRIM.ORG

Athena: www.athenaSMI.ca

LMS: http://LMS.cfr.washington.edu

USLCI database: www.nrel.gov/lci