Capturing global seismic potential from GEM’s fault, quake, and strain datasets Ross S. Stein GEM...
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Capturing global seismic potential from GEM’s fault, quake, and strain datasetsRoss S. Stein GEM Scientific Board chair, and U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist
Instrumental quakes
Active faults
Historical quakes
Strain rate Ground motion
prediction equations
Exposure
Population
Buildings
Vulnerability
Damage data
Fragility functions
Decision tools
Loss amplifiers
Risk transfer tools
Retrofit cost-benefit tools
Risk rankings and indices
Hazard(faulting & shaking)
Exposure andVulnerability
(deaths, damage, dollars)
Social Impact(mitigation actions)
GEM’s GLOBAL DATASETS, a €10M investment
ISC‐GEM Catalog: 20,000 earthquakes, 1900‐2009
Cut‐off Magnitudes:
M≥7.50 since 1900M≥6.25 since 1918M≥5.50 since 1965
15,000 seismic
bulletins from 300
institutions
NewOld
ISC-GEM Catalog: New magnitudes, locations, and depths for all
quakes
Guatemala
Puerto Rico
Colombia
Guatemala
Puerto Rico
Colombia
Depth (km)
Storchak, Di Giacomo, Bondár, Engdahl, Villaseñor, Lee, Harris and Bormann (submitted)
ISC-GEM vs. Centennial catalogs: Northern Chile
ISC-GEMCentennial
Chile
Pacific
Ocean
Chile
Pacific
Ocean
Storchak et al (submitted)
Bolivia Bolivia
How were these results achieved? Uniform relocationsPre-1918 Centennial locations events were simply adopted from reliable
sourcesIn ISC-GEM, all but 1900-1903 shocks were relocated based on arrival time data
7Storchak et al (submitted)
Centennial ISC-GEM
Uniform magnitudes
ISC-GEM uses a unified MW magnitude scale, originating from just four sources
Ms, mb, mB, Mw, UK, others Storchak et al (submitted)
ISC-GEM Catalog: The signature of plate tectonics
km
continentalcollision
subduction
Rifting
subduction
Backarcspreading
(Colored byfault type)
Newlydiscoveredactive faultsin Myanmar
Sieh et al(in preparation)
ISC-GEM Seismic Catalog
(orange quakes are shallow,
blue are deep)
T H A I L A N D
B A N G L A -D E S H M Y A N M A R
A N D A M A N S
H I M A L A Y A S
GEM FaultedEarth
KelvinBerryman
(GNS Science)Principal
Investigator
A new tool for geologists to upload their faults to GEM
K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, N. Litchfield, and GEM IT staff
Seismic source interpretation and upload tool
K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, N. Litchfield, and GEM IT staff
GEM Faulted Earth: Uploaded fault traces and regions so far covered
NewZealand
U.S. JapanHimalayas
Australia
Alaska
Oceanic transforms
Hawaii
K. Berryman, A. Chistophersen, K. Haller, Y. Awata, N. Litchfield, P. Tapponnier, and K. Sieh
Europe
South America
Indonesia
Middle East
Central Asia
Middle EastStill to come:
Japan
Taiwan
Java
Tonga
Aleutians
NewGuinea
Philippines
Fault depth (km)
Sumatra
GEM Faulted Earth 40,000 km of
subductionzones
SLAB 1.0of Hayes &
Wald (2010)
GEM Large HistoricalEarthquake Catalog
AD 1000-1900
Paola Albiniand
Roger Musson,(in prep.)
GEM Large HistoricalEarthquake Catalog
AD 1000-1900
Paola Albiniand
Roger Musson,(in prep.)
GEM Large HistoricalEarthquake Catalog
AD 1000-1900
Paola Albiniand
Roger Musson,(in prep.)
Indonesia: GEM Historical Catalog has 12 times more quakes than NOAA
NOAA Catalog: 6 earthquakes GEM Catalog: 75 earthquakes
NOAA = National Geophysical Data Center/ World Data Service Significant Earthquake Database
Java
Myanmar
Paola Albini and Roger Musson (in prep.)
1900‐2009
Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each othe
Istanbul
GEM Historical CatalogM≥7 during AD 1000‐1900
1900‐2009 Istanbul
Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each othe
Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each other
Instrumental and historical catalogs complement each other
GEM Historical CatalogM≥7 during AD 1000‐1900
White et al., 2004 Ms = 7.60
Zúñiga et al., 1997 Mw = 8.10
Nishenko & Singh, 1987 (13 MDPs)
ISC‐GEM Mw = 7.69 ± 0.68
Engdahl & Villa., 2002 Mw = 7.40
Abe & Noguchi, 1983 Ms = 7.70
Calibration issues: 1903 M~7.7 Mexico-Chiapas
M. Stucchi(in prep.)
500 km
Avni et al., 2002 (macroseismic)
Ben-Menahem et al., 1976 ML = 6.2
ISC-GEM Mw = 6.29 ±0.21
Location uncertainties: 1927 Jericho earthquake
Max Stucchi (in prep.)
Amman
Jerusalem
Tel Aviv
Who needs a Global Strain Rate Model?
Quake rate Strain rate
Wasatchfault
Cas‐cadia
If all accumulating strain were released seismically, the quake rateshould be proportional to strain rate
2000-2011 GPS velocities used by Kreemer et alfor the GEM Strain Rate Model
Gutenberg-Richter a-value from declusteredANSS catalog (Arnaud Mignan, ETH Zurich)
WesternUnited States
GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults
Warmer colorsindicate highstrain andthus highquakerates
Kreemeret al (in prep.)
4,000 velocitiesin 2004 model,
20,000 inGEM’s
Canada
SouthAmerica
Mexico Caribbean
Alaska
U.S.
GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults
Warmer colorsindicate highstrain andthus highquakerates
Kreemeret al (in prep.)
China
TaiwanIndia
Java
Japan
Sumatra
Iran
Philippines
Tibet
IndianOcean
New Guinea
East Africanrift
4,000 velocitiesin 2004 model,
20,000 inGEM’s
GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Catalog across Eurasia
Strain rate (nanostrain/yr)
Strain rate and large 20th century earthquakes are correlated
M≥6 earthquakes
GEORGIA
IRAN
TUNISIATIBET
CRETE
KYRGYZSTAN
INDIA
ITALY
PAKISTAN
JORDAN
ALGERIA
SERBIA
TURKEY
But strain exceeds seismicity in Himalayas, Tehran, Baku, North Anatolian fault, Greece
ISAREL
Iran: GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Catalog
Strain rate (nanostrain/yr)
I R A N
Tehran
Dubai
Tabriz
Baku
C A S P I A N
A Z E R B A I J A N
M≥6 earthquakes
1.5 million
2.1 million
12.0 million
1.5 million
Population
Kreemer(in prep.)
Shiraz
Tehran
Northern Italy
Kreemer, in prep.
Pavia PaviaEmilia
Romagna
ISC‐GEM quakes
Western Turkey
Istanbul
Istanbul
Izmir
Bursa
Kreemer, in prep.
ISC‐GEM quakes
Northern Philippines
Manila
ISC‐GEM quakes
Baguio
Kreemer, in prep.
Chile and ArgentinaKreemer, in prep.
Santiago
ISC‐GEM quakes
Santiago
2011 LandscanPopulation
density
1900-2009 ISC-GEMEarthquake Catalog
Santiago
Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
SHARE Model Faults
Global Strain Rate Model helps regional modelers hunt for local faults
Because inadequate fault data is perhaps the greatest weakness of hazard models
Because inadequate fault data is perhaps the greatest weakness of hazard models
GEM’s response to seismic hazard debate
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, and Robert J. Geller
Mark W. Stirling
Seth Stein, Robert Geller, and Mian Liu
September/October 2012
2012
John AdamsCanada NatlHaz Model
John AdamsCanada NatlHaz Model
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz
(Powell co‐PI)
Oliver BoydCentral US Haz
Model
MarcoPaganiGEM
MarcoPaganiGEM
Seth Stein, PSHA critic
Alex AllmannMunich Re
Laura PeruzzaEuropean Models
Laura PeruzzaEuropean Models
Bring warring parties together on a mountain top for 3 days to develop new strategies, and to agree on tests of seismic hazard assessment
Mark Leonard, Australia Natl Haz Model
Ray DurrheimSo. Africa Model
Anke FriederichEuropeangeology
Anke FriederichEuropeangeology
USGS Powell Center Workshops: Harnessing the community
Ned FieldCalif HazModel
Mark PetersenUS Nat’l Haz Model
DavidJackson
PSHA critic
GraemeWeatherill, GEM
Danijel SchorlemmerGEM Testing and
EvaluationFacility
Martin KäserMunich ReMartin KäserMunich Re
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz(Powell co‐PI)
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz(Powell co‐PI)
Morgan PageCalif HazModel
Gavin HayesSubduction
zones
USGS Powell Center Workshops: Harnessing the community
• Build a testable global earthquake activity rate model using smoothed seismicity and GEM strain rate
• Abandon assignments of ‘maximum earthquake magnitude’ for a scientifically defensible alternative
• Test post‐1996 ground motions againstthe 1996 US Natl Seismic Hazard model
Powell Center Groups: Essential projects
More quakes
Less quakes
Forecast quake rate (log scale)
Bird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemerand Weatherill (in prep.)
GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) retrospective forecast for post-2005 M≥5.75
quakes
Best forecast is from 37.5% GEM Strain Rate Model and 62.5% pre-2005 seismic
catalog
Forecast quake rate (log scale)
More quakes
Less quakes
GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) retrospective forecast for post-2005 M≥5.75
quakes
Best forecast is from 37.5% GEM Strain Rate Model and 62.5% pre-2005 seismic
catalogBird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemerand Weatherill (in prep.)
GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC‐GEM CatalogVolkan Sevilgen (USGS)
Some of the GEM team
Strain Rate
Kreemer, in prep.
Standard deviation of the Strain Rate
Kreemer, in prep.
Signal-to-noise ratio of the strain rate
Kreemer, in prep.
Dilatation (red) and contraction (blue) rates
Kreemer, in prep.
Greece and Crete
Kreemer, in prep.
Athens
AthensGulf of Corinth
ISC‐GEM quakes
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
ISC‐GEM quakes
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
ISC‐GEM quakes
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
Earthquake potential at millennial, century, and decade scales
Number of studies
Paola Albini (INGV Milan) and Roger Musson (British Geological Survey), Principal Investigators
GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog: 832 M≥7 quakes during AD 1000-1900
Magnitude
Paola Albini (INGV Milan) and Roger Musson (British Geological Survey), Principal Investigators
GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog: 832 M≥7 quakes during AD 1000-1900
Earthquake potential from millennial, century, and decade record
11 eqs in NOAA Catalogue vs 20 eqs in GLHE Catalogue
India
Tibet
Pakistan
Himalayas: GEM Catalog has twice the quakes of the NOAA Catalog
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
Regional Examples
Kreemer, in prep.
GEM Earthquake Activity Rate ModelBird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer & Weatherill (in prep.)
Stephen Young, Endurance Re: “Data Quality wasidentified as a serious issue in 2011. The Tohokuevent had not been fully considered in the event set,leaving decided gaps in knowledge.”From the Font Line, Bermuda Reinsurance (2012)
Stephen Young, Endurance Re: “Data Quality wasidentified as a serious issue in 2011. The Tohokuevent had not been fully considered in the event set,leaving decided gaps in knowledge.”From the Font Line, Bermuda Reinsurance (2012)
Winning blend: 62.5% catalog / 37.5% strain
Mixing parameter, aPure strainrate
Pure seismiccatalog
Thus far, the best predictors of future quakesare past quakes and strain rate
Inform
ation score (binary bits per quake)
GEM Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) experiments find ‘seismic gap theory’
(next quakes in areas of high strain and fewest past quakes) fails
Bird, Jackson, Kagan, Kreemer & Weatherill (in prep.)
Internal outline‣ Themes‣ Difficulty of inferring future quakes from past quakes‣ Potential to prioritize global seismic threat if data and methods are uniform‣ Potential of testable PSHA if it is global and as uniform as possible
‣ Data‣ GEM Faulted Earth‣ GEM Historical earthquake catalog‣ ISC‐GEM Instrumental quake catalog‣ GEM Strain Rate Model‣ Powell process: Collaborative, open, problem‐solving‣ GEAR
‣ Landing‣ In the earth sciences, data trumps all, and so… ‣ The GC datasets are a gift to science, commerce, and humanity