Captiva Sea-Level Rise Resiliency Committee: Working Document

Purpose of Document: This document is the working document for the SLR committee. Its purpose is to have one source for the current knowledge base, plans, approach, and decisions that have made. It may have empty sections at times, and be updated regularly until it is no longer useful. Version Number: V0.5 – Changes are in Green. Changes to Sections: 1.1, 1.3, 3.3 Added Sections 1.4, 3.4, 5.1, 8.1, 7.1. V0.4: added info on mangroves, storminess situation, outreach, and education

Committee Members: Linda Laird (chair), David Mintz, Jay Brown, Mike Mullins, Kate Fetissoff, Jim Restivo, William Riley, Ann Brady, Kelly Sloan, Suri Sehgal, Kate Gooderham.

Mission of the Committee: Gather information on the effects of sea-level rise’s impact on Captiva Island, including defining assets, consulting experts, defining areas of vulnerabilities and provide alternative approaches to the Captiva Community Panel (CCP) for resiliency and adaptation.

Table of Contents: 1.0 Background

1.1 Sea-level Rise: The Problem 1.2 Relevant Rules and Regulations 1.3 Current Relationships 1.4 Southeast Florida 1.4 Current Planning Process 1.5 Research Needed

2.0 Captiva Assets 3.0 Problem Definition for Captiva

3.1 Projected Sea Level Rise for Captiva 3.2 Storminess 3.3 Sheng’s Tool/RFP

4.0 Potential Mediations 4.1 Mangroves 4.2 Dunes 4.3 Oyster Beds 4.4 Sea Walls, Revetments, Riprap 4.5 Storm Water Management Systems 4.6 Building & Zoning Code Changes

5.0 Economic Studies of Mediation Alternatives 5.1 Michael Beck 2018 Gulf Coast Analysis 7.0 Outreach 7.1 SEFL Compact 7.2 Strategy 7.3 Publicity 7.4 Education 8.0 Funding 8.1 MSTU Tax 8.2 Property, Sales, and Bed Taxes 9.0 Other Community Examples 9.1 Kiawah 10.0 Additional Materials

1.0 Background:

1.1 Sea-Level Rise: The Problem The University of Florida has a website dedicated to Sea-Level Rise, as part of the Sea Grant Florida Program. See: https://www.flseagrant.org/climate-change/sea-level-rise/ The summaries below are taken from that website, or subtending documents or websites.

“Using the sea level in 1992 as a reference point, and based on information from the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact, NOAA and the US Army Corps of Engineers, in 2020 sea level will have risen by 6 to 12 inches; in 2060 by 14 to 34 inches; and in 2100, by 31 to 81 inches. These are faster rates of sea level rise than happened in the past, because the earth is warming more quickly. They do not take into consideration what might happen if there is catastrophic melting of polar ice.” (UF Sea Grant Florida Website)

“Globally, sea-level rise is a combination of increased water volume in the world’s oceans, driven by melting land-based ice, and the thermal expansion of water, by hotter ocean temperatures.”i

Sea-level Rise (SLR) can cause flooding, inundation, erode beaches, and increases brackishness for both ground water and estuaries. We also expect increased storminess in the future, due to climate change.

There is significant uncertainty with predicting SLR since it is based upon the extent of melting land-based ice, which in turn is caused by global warming. Two other important concepts are:

Mean Sea Level (MSL): Height is measured relative to a standard elevation defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (NOAA). MSL is a reference defined at U.S. primary tide stations as the average water level over a series of years (currently 1983-2001).

Relative Mean Sea Level (RMSL) The amount of SLR also varies by

location due to local movements of the land as shorelines rise, sink, or remain stable in response to groundwater removal, glacial isostatic adjustment, and other factors.

Unfortunately, it appears that the rate of SLR is steadily increasing, as shown in the chart below from Carbon Brief, a UK scientific website.

1.2 Precipitation Changes Climate change has a mixed effect on overall precipitation, altering weather patterns that may vary by season and latitude. However, the impact on heavy rain is much clearer. As higher temperatures supercharge the water cycle, downpours are getting stronger and amplifying flood risks.

1.2 Relevant Government Relevant Rules, Regulations,

1.2.1 Lee County Flood Ordinance FEMA requires each jurisdiction that wishes to be covered by federal flood insurance to pass a flood ordinance, which includes the base flood elevation for

building in different zones throughout the county. The computed elevation is based on where floodwater is anticipated to rise during the base flood (the flood having a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year aka the 100-year flood or storm event). Habitable structures must build to or above that elevation. These numbers are based on past events and are revised regularly by FEMA contractors. There are those who believe the base flood elevation criteria should be revised. At some point in the future, the elevation may increase. In the short term concern about property elevation is dealt with through this ordinance.

1.2.2 Florida Building Code After Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the state decided to develop its own building code instead of using the Southern Building Code. Adopted in 2002, the Florida Building Code has stringent construction requirements that supersede all local codes. It is updated every three years. Although it impacts the structural integrity of construction, it is particularly strict about hurricane tie downs and roofing. Structures built after 2002 should be up to code. As structures are replaced, they will be brought up to the new code.

1.2.3. Lee County Build back Ordinance Under normal circumstances, new construction requires adherence to all county codes. The county makes an exception to some of the regulations for structures that are destroyed or suffer major damage (50%). In that circumstance structures may be rebuilt and exempted from certain regulations. Nonetheless, the structures must meet federal requirements for elevation above the 100-year flood level; building code requirements for flood proofing; current building and life safety codes for repair work performed; Coastal Construction Control Lines regulations (if applicable); disability access regulations; and any required zoning or other development regulations (other than density or intensity), unless compliance with such regulations would preclude reconstruction otherwise intended by the build back policy as may be determined by the Lee County Emergency Review Board. The ordinance essentially allows a property to avoid compliance with density or intensity regulations so it can be built back.

1.2.4 Lee County Emergency Management Lee County Emergency Management works with the state emergency management and FEMA on a number of issues dealing with emergency management. They are responsible for setting up shelters, determining evacuation zones and timing to evacuate, the system of restoration and rebuilding. As storminess increases, they will have increased responsibility. In addition to these functions, they are also responsible to make recommendations for FEMA mitigation funding to purchase, mitigate or elevate properties threatened by repetitive flooding. Their focus tends to be on public buildings, particularly those associated with life-safety. These funds can be used for such projects as surface water management.

1.2.5 The Florida 30 Year Erosion Line The Florida 30-year erosion line delineates the area that will "be seaward of the seasonal high water line within 30 years after the date of application for such a

permit." Except for erosion control structures, and in special circumstances, a single family home, all construction is prohibited seaward of this line. This prohibition includes rebuilding multi-family structures that are over 50% damaged. The 30-year line cannot extend landward of the CCCL (see below). Once a beach project is installed, DEP is required to consider its impact on the erosion rates. Unlike the coastal construction setback line and the coastal construction control line, the 30-year line is set at the time of application.

1.2.6 Erosion Control Line Normally the mean high water line is the demarcation between state and private ownership of the Gulf front. When a beach nourishment project is constructed, the Governor and Cabinet set an artificial line as the demarcation called the erosion control line ECL). In the case of Captiva, and most other communities, it is set at the mean high water line at the time of the beach restoration project. Beach restoration mitigates for sea level rise on the Gulf side, and because the state owns the land seaward of the ECL, prevents construction on the restored beach.

1.2.7 Florida Coastal Construction Control Line Regulations Florida's Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL) defines portions of beaches and dune systems subject to severe fluctuations based on a 100-year storm event. The CCCL is not a seaward limit for construction of upland structures (as in a setback line). The line is mapped and approved by the state of Florida. Although there are exceptions, the line essentially follows Captiva Drive except in the Village. Properties seaward of the CCCL are required to receive state approvals for construction. The regulations require deeper pilings, engineered structures, consideration of wind and wave forces and higher elevations.

1.2.8 Lee County Coastal Construction Setback Line When the current CCCL (see above) was adopted by the state of Florida, the 1978 line was adopted by Lee County as a setback line. Major structures (other than erosion control structures) cannot be sited seaward of this line. Since the line has a long history on Captiva, there are no major structures seaward of the coastal construction setback line. This is another regulation that helps protect Captiva from sea level rise on the Gulf.

1.2.9 Mangroves: Mangroves are protected by the State of Florida. A permit for trimming can be obtained from FDEP. Any mangrove impacts during development (pools, homes, docks, etc.) must be mitigated or reduced to a minimum. Additional regulations apply in Pine Island Aquatic Preserve.

1.3 Current SLR Committee Relationships to Other Organizations/Experts Committee of the Captiva Panel The Sea Level Rise Committee is acting as the Captiva Community

Engagement Team as part of the “The Assessment of Sanibel’s Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Increased Storminess Study.” Michael Savarese from FGU is leading the study. See Sanibel study in SLR folder in

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1oCsHcz4vo5vpms9HJpyCczh2KzEj43g

Captiva (through CEPD) is attempting to become a founding member of the Southwest Florida Compact. See section 7.1 for additional information.

Initiated Discussions with Peter Sheng who is a professor at Florida University, and an expert in sea level rise. He has a custom modeling tool that combines tides, storms, and sea level rise. He has modeled Collier County and could model Lee County, given funding. See also https://www.essie.ufl.edu/~pete/

Mangrove expert on staff at SCCF: Dr. Milbrandt National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

o Mission: “To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, ad to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.”

o They have an extensive and impressive website with community support tools, including tools for predicting SLR. See https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slr.html

Initiated contact with the Southwest Florida Community Foundation. The Community Foundation of Collier County, Southwest Florida Community Foundation, Florida Gulf Coast University and Conservancy of Southwest Florida has formalized a three-year partnership to align community resources in an effort to address issues related to our region’s changing climate. In June or July, they plan to have a regional organizer in place.

Through SFCF, we are now aware of EcoAmerica: https://ecoamerica.org/ “ecoAmerica builds institutional leadership, public support, and political will for climate solutions in the United States.”

Cheryl Hapke: Costal Scientist see https://knv.bsk.mybluehost.me/ Rosetta Elkin: Consultant to the Rauschenberg Foundation, Assistant

Professor of Landscape Architecture at Harvard http://rse-landscape.com/ There are other organizations, including significant state, regional, and

national ones that are addressing SLR who are potential resources and partners. These need to be identified and prioritized.

1.4 Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact

Captiva may become a founding member of the SWFL Climate Change Compact. This section describes the SEFL compact and is included as additional background.

In January 2010, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach Counties united to form the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact as a way to coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities across county lines. Since then, the four Compact counties have advanced local and regional responses to—and preparations for—the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, flooding, and economic

and social disruptions. They have expanded to work with a growing number of federal, state, regional, municipal, nonprofit, academic, and private sector partners.

Today, the Compact represents a new form of regional climate governance designed to allow local governments to set the agenda for adaptation, while providing state and federal agencies with access to technical assistance and support. The Compact’s work is widely recognized as one of the nation’s leading examples of regional-scale climate action, and it continues to serve as an exemplary mechanism for collaboration on climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

The Compact calls on the counties to work cooperatively to:

Develop annual legislative programs and jointly advocate for state and federal policies and funding.

Dedicate staff time and resources to create a Southeast Florida Regional Climate Action Plan, which outlines recommended mitigation and adaptation strategies to help the region pull in one direction and speak with one voice.

Meet annually at the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Leadership Summits to mark progress and identify emerging issues.

On August 6, Kate and Ken Gooderham met with Margarita Kruyff to discuss the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (Compact). Ms. Kruyff, M. ASCE is the City of Miami Beach’s Environment & Sustainability Assistant Director, where she leads the city's habitat management, environmental permitting, and regulatory compliance programs. She is also responsible for providing technical support in the development and implementation of the city's sea level rise adaptation and resiliency planning programs.

The Compact is nearly a decade old. They originally received a grant from the Kresge Foundation that acted as their initial staff. The staff followed the counties’ lead. Now the Compact is funded by the counties; Steve Adams from the Institute for Sustainable Communities acts as staff. Having an independent convener has been important. They are neutral and help to keep the Compact unified. Overtime, the Compact members decided that it needed municipal representation. Since there are 48 municipalities in Miami-Date alone, one from each county was chosen for that perspective. The City of Miami Beach is the Miami-Dade municipality representative. In addition to the four counties and municipality representation, the South Florida Water Management District and the Nature Conservancy are non-voting members. The Nature Conservancy also staffs the resiliency working group. Several years after formation, the Compact began forming working groups on specific issues. The Compact lobbies both the state and federal governments on its legislative agenda, one of the primary reasons it was formed. The Compact allows the four counties speak with a unified voice.

Grant opportunities come to the compact and staff decides who receives them. Grantors currently reach out to the Compact rather than the Compact applying. They have also developed a Regional Climate Action Plan that further ensures a consistent message. Kruyff discussed what she saw was an overall timeline. It will take one to two years to define how the group operated (structure, purpose); this is underway in Southwest Florida with the MOU being drafted. Educating the public is an important role. Members develop regional community action plans with common goals and a reliance on science. For example, they have agreed on a sea level rise projection for Southeast Florida that enables them to be consistent in their statements to the public. They hold implementation workshops and update their plans. They hold an annual summit which each county hosting and in charge of the summit on a rotating basis. The issues are general enough that communities can choose how they will support them. It is critical for each of the communities to have an advocate on staff. Ms. Kruyff will facilitate having one of the conveners address us at a meeting, if desired. She emphasized that they have learned a great deal in this process and are more than happy to share best practices and provide any other assistance they can. Recommended resources:

Institute for Sustainable Communities: https://sustain.org/ Compact website: http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/ RCAP 2.0: http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/regional-climate-

action-plan/ Climate Summit: http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/the-summit/ Compact documents including recaps of implementation workshops,

webinars, our unified sea level rise projections, the resolution forming the Compact: http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/compact-documents/

1.5 Our current Planning Process: The Planning Horizon is 30 years for this committee, looking at 5-year increments.

The Current Plan is to: Assess our Risks/ Understand the Problem

Identify our Assets Look at SLR over Time Identify Expected Vulnerabilities over Time Communicate to Panel Understand Resiliency Options (TBD)

Who/what are the experts? What are others, especially our close neighbors, doing? What are Best-Practices for Resiliency Planning Figure out community communication/buy-in/funding

1.6 Research Needed

2.0 Captiva Assets Source: April 2019 Committee Meeting Criteria Used: Importance to recovery after an incident Priority 1:

Roads and the Bridge Electrical and Power Water Package Plants (3) and FGUA (treatment plant at South Seas)

Priority 2: Civic Center Fire Department Helicopter Ports (2 – for emergency transport) Village drainage system

Beach dunes Priority 3:

Island Store, Village Center Homes Parking Lots (for staging of recovery) Marinas Library Chapel By The Sea Cemetery Archeological sites

3.0 Sea-Level Rise Problem Statement for Captiva Summary: This committee selected a 30-year planning horizon as the initial project scope, with a projected sea-level rise of 1.9 feet, consistent with NOAA intermediate high projections. At 1.9 feet, there are areas of Captiva, particularly along the fringe of the bayside, which will be underwater or flooded frequently. The impact of climate change and changes to the intensity and frequency of storms is unknown. Climate central shows the increase in 1”, 2”, and 3” storms from 1950

to today, based upon data reported from 244 US cities. There is also research that predicts that Southwest Florida will have LESS rain in the summer months 3.1 NOAA Predictions: NOAA’s tools can project the area of flooding on Captiva under various risk scenarios, over time. They use “the bathtub model” which is based upon just the sea level, and doesn’t include the impact of flooding from storms. The risk scenarios range from very optimistic to very pessimistic. For example, over the 30 year planning horizon, the predicted SLR is: Extreme 2.89 ft High 2.49 ft Intermediate High 1.9 ft Intermediate 1.38 ft Intermediate Low .89 ft Below is a Captiva Map from the NOAA site, showing predicted inundation in 2050 based on the Intermediate High Scenario (1.9 feet Rise). [Look at this under 500% display viewer size to see more details. ]

3.2 Storminess We have spoken with many experts, researched technical papers and found no expert that would venture a guess about a site-specific impact of storminess. The

following is from “Climate Change and Hurricanes1” “Prediction of hurricane frequency and intensity is very uncertain, in part, because the computer

models that simulate future climate are not able to resolve individual storms. The simple theory is

that a warming planet will lead to warmer sea surface temperatures, which fuel hurricanes, thereby

causing more and stronger storms. Other studies show that warming will lead to more El Niño

1 https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/climate-change

events, which hinder hurricane development. Climatologists are working hard to resolve these

discrepancies, but there is too much uncertainty now to predict how climate change will affect

hurricanes.”

While we may see more storms, stronger storms and storms that increase in intensity quickly, that does not mean Captiva will see any of these storms. Nonetheless, Captivans need to look at what they can do to mitigate the consequences of storminess.

3.2.1 Storminess and Building Codes

Current regulations on Captiva mean that houses must be set back from the Gulf, elevated overall and constructed to a higher standard. Property owners with homes built before the 2002 adoption of the Florida Building Code should consider what they can do to strengthen their buildings. If a house is elevated at all, anything at ground level should be considered expendable and should not be a potential missile in a storm. The big lesson from all storms is buildings that are elevated, set back from the Gulf and built to higher standards do best in storms and limit recovery. Another big lesson is that well-pruned native vegetation does best. Recovery from Hurricane Charley was delayed because of the problem of Australian pine removal. That delay allowed additional damage to unprotected damaged structures. In the 1920s, storms destroyed agriculture on Captiva because the plants were not native. While at some point, it may be wise to review the elevation, building code and other standards to see if voluntary strengthening should be recommended.

3.2.2 Hurricanes and Overwashing of Captiva

Kate Gooderham reviewed Florida’s Hurricane History by Jay Barnes, The Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones by David Longshore, talked with coastal engineers Tom Pierro and Steve Keehn with APTIM (CEPD coastal engineers), and reviewed three articles from the “Santiva Chronicle” entitled “Before Charley Parts I, II and III (http://www.santivachronicle.com/Content/Community/Charley-

Virtual-Museum/1/50 ). Based on these documents and discussions, it appears unlikely that Captiva ever would be over washed. Her discussions with Hans Wilson, an engineer who grew up on Captiva, supports that position. Because of Captiva is relatively high with a great deal of vegetation, there will be overwash of low lying areas. A large portion of the assurance for that position is the Beach Restoration Program. When engineers determine the quantity and placement of the sand on Captiva, they include sea level rise in the existing erosion rates. In addition, beginning with the upcoming beach restoration project, they will be including the acceleration of sea level rise. They will be adding an additional half-foot of elevation to the beach every 15 years. A healthy, wide beach is great protection during storm

events. None of Captiva had this protection until the South Seas Beach project in 1981. Captiva may want to consider in the future is bulking up the dunes to help prevent overwash. Increasing the dune size is in the CEPD permit, but not currently anticipated in the upcoming project. The existing dunes have gotten larger over the years. The finer sand on the beach has ended up in the vegetated dunes. Beach vegetation, like mangroves, can help protect the shoreline. As part of the community involvement process, it may be wise to provide information on pro-active steps residents can takes to preserve and grow the dunes. 3.3 Peter Sheng modeling: Dr. Sheng has modeling tools that combine sea-level rise, high tides, and storms on both bay and gulf side for predictions of inundation To use them for Captiva, he will need to load a significant amount of data from various sources for Charlotte Harbor and environs. He has done this for Collier County under a NOAA grant. He gave us a proposal to do a similar project for Captiva. Once in place, the data and his models could be used to predict inundation and flooding over time, using different sea-level rise & high-tides scenarios, and different storm scenarios. The initial cost is ~$180,000. This project could be undertaken with our neighbors on Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound, since much of the data is in common, and we could potentially share costs. As a second step, Captiva could be instrumented with sensors to validate the current model, increase the real knowledge for Captiva, and tune/evolve it as the future unfolds. Depending on the extent of work we are interested in, we could end up with an online tool which would be able to predict the water levels, etc. over the next 24 hours when there is a storm coming. The remaining cost would be ~$300,000. 3.4 . Coastal Science SolutionsH Ms. Hapke has suggested that her company would be interested in modeling Captiva and our proposed resiliency options. We have asked for a proposal.

4.0 Potential Mediations

4.1 Mangroves

4.1.1 Background on Mangroves Mangroves build land (accrete). They are sinks (collection areas) for sediment, sea grass, leaves, algae, and pollutants. Mangrove trees provide significant wind mitigation during hurricanes by absorbing, deflecting and otherwise decreasing wind speeds. Mangroves are thought to do the same during catastrophic storm surges, that is, absorbing, slowing down and deflecting water. Mangroves grow higher with rising tides and keep up with sea level rise projections because they build land (accrete) through deposition of leaves, algae, sea grass, sediment and pollutants. In addition to coastal defense, mangroves are both a great nursery for sea life and sequester large amounts of carbon. They also help with water quality by trapping sediments/pollutants in their dense root systems. Normally mangroves will not migrate nor colonize where there are seawalls, revetments or other man-made structures, although there are a few cases where riprap revetments and seawalls have been colonized with mangroves using culverts as “planters.” Seawalls typically cause mangrove seedlings to be dislodged and float away.

New planting of areas that have been cleared by people for access would be beneficial but it will happen naturally if left alone. Removal of seawalls will benefit mangroves although there are a few cases where riprap revetment has been colonized with mangroves. Usually seawalls cause mangrove seedlings to be dislodged and float away. Mangroves can be encouraged by halting 1) their removal and 2) new development near them. Mangroves can be naturally restored in areas where they have been removed if they are left alone. In degraded areas, fixes to hydrology may be required such as re-introducing tidal flushing, as in Sanibel’s Clam Bayou. They can also be encouraged on a larger scale by adding additional sediment (similar to what is being done on the Gulf side) and planting mangroves to create a larger mangrove fringe/barrier for the island. Local data that SCCF has include the density of trunks, number of seedlings and canopy closure (percent of the canopy that is closed in a specified area.) There are three mangrove species found in Florida: red, black, and white. Red mangroves are characterized by a dendritic network of aerial prop roots extending into the soil that allows them to live in anaerobic conditions by providing gas exchange. They attain 26–33 feet in height along the shoreline. The black mangrove usually occupies slightly higher elevations upland from the red mangrove. It can be identified by numerous finger-like projections, called pneumatophores, which

protrude from the soil around the tree's trunk. Black mangrove trees grow to a height of 133 feet and average 66 feet. Younger black mangrove trees are shade intolerant but become more shade tolerant as they mature. The white mangrove usually occupies the highest elevations farther upland than either the red or black mangroves. Unlike its red or black counterparts, the white mangrove has no visible aerial root systems. White mangrove trees grow to 45 feet in height and up and tend to have a more erect form than the other species. All three are tropical species and are sensitive to extreme temperature fluctuations as well as freezing. Mangroves grow very slowly. A 10-year-old mangrove is around 8-10 ft. tall. A 5-year-old mangrove is less than five feet. Some areas are better than others to plant mangroves in terms of survival rates. Mangroves will typically colonize areas that are the right elevation (between 0 mean sea level and about +0.75). 4.1.2 Possible Mangrove Actions

Bayside mapping to determine existing seawalls, existing mangroves, and the most beneficial planting locations

Sediment nourishment along bayside to create additional habitats for mangroves, and then an active mangrove planting program.

Education campaign for Captiva homeowners o Tours of homes with mangroves (Bill’s)

4.2 Dunes Steve Keehn with APTIM, the CEPD’s consulting engineer, indicated that Captiva might want to consider adding sand to its dunes in future beach restoration projects. The dunes on Captiva are of varying size. Finer sediments move into the dunes by wind and waves. Vegetation helps hold the sediment and enlarge the dunes.

4.2 Oyster Beds

4.3 Sea Walls, Revetments, Riprap

4.4 Storm Water Management Systems

4.6 Building Regulations

5.0 Economic Studies of Mediation 5.1 Michael Beck Gulf Coast Analysis From As Costal Flooding Surges, Living Shorelines Seen As Savior – 2019

“Michael W. Beck, a research professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and then lead marine scientist for the Nature Conservancy…..was initiating a collaboration

with the insurance industry that today may begin to change coastal conservation."He and his partners then turned their economic and risk-management models on the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, which is regularly battered by big storms. They did an exhaustive analysis of the annual expected benefits and costs of all types of infrastructure.

The team estimated that the coast would suffer $134 billion of losses over 20 years if no preventive measures were taken. Elevating homes could prevent $39.4 billion of those losses, but it is incredibly expensive. At an average of $83,300 per house, it would cost $54 billion to prevent that $39 billion in damages. The six-meter-high dikes being built in Louisiana were a worse option; at $33,000 per meter, they were an absurdly expensive way to protect a relatively limited amount of property, returning just $1 in savings for every $4 of expense. Smaller levees built on land in front of many low-lying coastal communities prevented much more damage for almost the same cost.

In terms of bang for the buck, sandbags were the best investment, saving $8.4 billion of damages for a mere $0.84 billion in expense. Natural defenses ranked high as well. Wetlands restoration, which could prevent $18.2 billion of losses, would cost just $2 billion. Oyster-reef restoration could prevent $9.7 billion in losses for $1.3 billion. Barrier island restoration offered $5.9 billion of prevention for $1.2 billion. And “beach nourishment” (replenishing depleted beaches with sand dredged from the sea floor) in the eastern Gulf could save $9.3 billion for $5.5 billion.

That last one surprised many people because replacing beach sand year after year is often seen as a fool’s errand. “If the only choices you gave me were beach nourishment versus fully gray infrastructure,” Beck says, “I’d choose the former as the lesser of two evils.”

This study was for a very wide area and may not be specifically applicable to Captiva, but can give some ideas of the relative cost/benefits, which are summarized below from the article. Cost/Benefit Summary of Alternatives from Dr. Beck paper.

Comparison of Mediation Alternatives for Gulf Coast (Texas to Florida) 20 Year Estimates

Benefit COST Cost/Benefit

Do Nothing -135 0 NA

Home Elevation 39.4 54 1.37

6 Meter Dikes 4.00

Smaller levees Similar

Sandbags 8.4 0.84 0.10

Wetlands Restoration 18.2 2 0.11

Oyster reef Restoration 9.7 1.3 0.13

Barrier Island restoration 5.9 1.2 0.20

Beach renourishment 9.3 5.5 0.59

7.0 Outreach Climate change is going to require research and solutions that no one community can achieve. Captiva needs to join other beach communities to build a coalition. At present, we are working on becoming part of the SWFL Compact. We expect to participate with other alliances/groups as well, such as Charlotte Harbor Aquatic Preserve. We also will need to reach out to own community for support.

7.1. Southwest Florida Regional Resiliency Compact The Southwest Florida Regional Resiliency Compact (Compact) is a collaboration of the counties and municipalities in Charlotte, Lee and Collier Counties seeking to work together on the issues concerning resiliency and to adaptively plan for the impacts of climate change and to engage the public. These efforts are necessary to preserve the quality of life and economic prosperity of our region. All counties and municipalities will be invited to join and sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU). Non-incorporated communities will be welcome to join the compact but not sign the MOU. In addition to the aforementioned, the development team includes a representative from the Florida House and the Florida Senate (Raymond Rodrigues, Kathleen Passimomo), representatives from the South Florida Water Management District and US Representative Francis Rooney. The facilitator is Michael Savarese, Program Coord/Professor, FGCU. Dept Marine & Ecological Sciences. James Evans, City of Sanibel, was one of the five members of the MOU writing team. The objectives of the Compact are: To engage the Southwest Florida community in the problem and the Compact’s

decision-making process.

To collaboratively adopt a SLR curve for future planning.

To collaboratively adopt target dates for planning.

To employ best scientific practices to analyze the region’s vulnerability to the

effects of climate change.

To coordinate climate adaptation and mitigation best practices across county

and municipal lines.

To coordinate and advance responses to and prepare for social and economic

impacts caused by climate change.

To develop a Regional Resiliency Action Plan, which will inform comprehensive

planning across the region, and ultimately to implement it.

To collaboratively seek funding to help each of these efforts.

To cooperatively develop a legislative strategy to enhance state and federal

participation and funding.

To serve as a buffer to community over-reaction and misunderstanding by

providing reliable and credible information and educational resources to the

public.

For further information, contact Kate Gooderham for copies of the Draft MOU, the May development meeting minutes and the Compact Purpose. Also, to see an example of a fully operational compact, go to http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/

7.2 Strategy

7.3 Publicity: Suri Seghal will head this up for us.

7.4 Education There are a number of issues about which Captivans need further information.

1. People tend to take what the CEPD is doing for granted and don’t realize the sea level rise mitigation from the beach restoration project. It would be beneficial for the CEPD engineer to address the committee on this issue and to assist in developing a public information program.

2. Mangroves are a great protector of the bay shoreline on Captiva. It would be helpful, first to the committee, and then to the community as a whole, to ask Eric Milbrandt, Ph.D, to discuss mangroves with the committee. We also may want to ask him to assist in developing a public information program.

3. Many Captivans do not understand the sea level rise and storminess protections that current regulations provide for the island. The committee needs to share that information with the community

4. The economic benefit of protecting investment is another issue that would benefit the community. Rating agencies and the Urban Land Institute all look at sea level rise and the impact on investing. Sharing information on this issue is important to enlist buy-in from the community for any plan.

8.0 Funding Some discussion on fundraisers, also Kelly has said there maybe money available for mangroves. Kelly will start working on potential grants in the fall From Mike: A separate Panel sponsored fund raiser might be conducted and we also need to seek grants from Funding Sources beyond the Panel and have very realistic ideas of the much broader scope to understand the macro level funding needed. And to help justify getting the funding. We need to make the case. I usually call such a scope a conceptual model, or, in other words, the big picture. What will the big picture of our SLR efforts look like?

And, we will need the high level view and corresponding plan, the various steps or phases that make up achieving this big picture. We will need to really scope out the project vs taking baby steps on myriad matters. Then, we might have a more realistic handle on the funding needs and the ability to sell the benefits to the potential funding sources. And an executive summary defining our project scope, goals and approach. Having the big picture well defined is absolutely necessary both to achieve the work and to achieve the funding. We must clearly understand and define our scope, viz; scope of needs, scope of outcomes and scope of benefits expected to be achieved by funding these efforts.

8.1 MSTU Tax Since Captiva is part of unincorporated Lee County, our property owners pay a specific tax called Municipal Services Taxing Unit (MSTU) tax. Captiva MSTU tax is believed to be about $1.25 million annually. (All unincorporated areas pay such an MSTU tax).

8.2 Property, Sales, and Bed Taxes For Captiva, according to Mike Mullins, the total amount of county and local property taxes is around $20+M annually. Transient use taxes on lodgings (bed taxes) is ~$3-4 million annually. Sales taxes on food, beverage and the state bed tax is ~ $3.5+ M.

9.0 Other Community Examples

9.1 Kiawah Kiawah completed a Flood Mitigation and Sea Level Rise Adaptation in fall 2018, which is an excellent example of a barrier island adaptation plan. There are many similarities to Captiva. Included in this report in an executive summary. The full report can be accessed at: https://www.kiawahisland.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/FINAL-Flood-Sea-Level-Rise-Report-clickable-links-1-1.pdf

Some preliminary findings: They focus on their storm water management system, which Captiva really

doesn’t have. Could one be feasible and practical for Captiva? . Kiawah does not seem to have our septic system issue Kiawah uses the concepts of:

o “Adaptive management,” which is the need for on-going monitoring and reassessment

o “Trigger points” — points at which action should be considered/taken These have not yet been defined.

Kiawah has, as does others, the concept of recommendations and education for the individual homeowner such that the individual can take action

They use a bathtub model for flooding.

10.0 Additional Materials Underwater REPORT: “Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate” Florida press release New Study Finds 1 Million Florida Homes Worth $351 Billion will be at Risk from Tidal Flooding (available in Spanish) Mapping tool: https://arcg.is/1aXHrb0 Property at Risk from rising seas by Congressional District (mapping tool): https://www.ucsusa.org/coastaldistricts Additional Materials

Technical backgrounder: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/underwater-analysis-technical-backgrounder.pdf

Matrix of Voices: Insights from Market Experts: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/underwater-insights-from-market-experts.pdf

Know Your Risk brochure: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/know-your-risk-brochure-LDF.pdf

Complete data by state (excel): https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/underwater-data-by-state.xlsx

Complete data by community (excel): https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/underwater-data-by-community.xlsx

Complete data by ZIP: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/06/underwater-data-by-zip-code.xlsx

Inland Flooding

Climate Change, Extreme Precipitation and Flooding: The Latest Science (2018)

Extreme Heat

What the Science Says about Extreme Heat Events examines changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme heat events like heat waves, as well as the role of climate change in driving current and future trends.

Health Risks and Impacts of Extreme Heat reviews the impacts and implications of extreme heat—including on health and infrastructure—within the United States.

Climate attribution

The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change (2018)

Tracing Who’s Responsible for Temperature Increase and Sea Level Rise (2017)

Climate Resilience

Toward climate resilience: A framework and principles for science-based adaptation. 2016.

Built to Last: Challenges and opportunities for climate-smart infrastructure in California. 2017.

Economics

As coastal flooding surges, ‘living shorelines’ seen as the answer. https://thefern.org/2019/03/as-coastal-flooding-surges-living-shorelines-seen-as-savior/ Compares the cost/benefit of various alternatives

Sources: NOAA Website: NOAA Document: Florida Sea Level Rise Text UF Florida Sea Grant Website: https://www.flseagrant.org/climate-change/sea-level-rise/ referenced 4/27/19. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-pouring-it-on-climate-change-intensifies-heavy-rain-events i Roads to Nowhere in Four States: State and Local Governments in the Atlantic

Southeast Facing Sea-Level Rise Shana Jones, Thomas Ruppert, Erin L. Deady, Heather

Payne, J. Scott Pippin, Ling-Yee Huang, and Jason M. Evans, from Columbia Journal of

Environmental Law, Vol. 44:1 Annotation: “This Article presents an analysis of coastal communities in four South Atlantic states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina—that are currently facing questions about how to protect property and infrastructure as sea levels rise and flooding increases. This Article distills the findings of an interdisciplinary research project funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”), Florida Sea Grant, Georgia Sea Grant, South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium, and North Carolina Sea Grant. It also consists of a regional analysis comparing how tort and local government law can both further and hinder climate change resilience planning and climate adaptation efforts across these four states. Given that the federal government has offered little in terms of legislation, policy, or funding to direct or support climate adaptation activities, local efforts—and the litigation that inevitably results—are on the forefront of establishing the framework for defining adaptation policy more broadly and influencing the contours of tort and land use law. This Article, therefore, fills an important research gap in existing climate change literature, as it discusses how increased flooding at the local level is putting pressure on traditional conceptions of

government duties, immunities, and authorities. This Article also uses roads as a case study to explore how sea-level rise is altering planning, maintenance, and funding for public infrastructure.” From Florida Sea Grant Website