Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and...

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1 Capital Protect Create Wealth

Transcript of Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and...

Page 1: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

1

CapitalP

rote

ct

Cre

ate

Wealth

Page 2: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

“Rule No 1: Never lose moneyRule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.”

- Warren Buffet

2

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term,

it is a weighing machine”

- Ben Graham

“Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge

rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth”

- John Bogle

Page 3: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

We Protect Capital

3

• Unlevered portfolio• Continuous monitoring

of liquidity risk

Portfolio Liquidity

• Not averse to raise cash• Portfolio exposure increased

over a period

Staggered Approach

• Exposure limits to minimize riskso ≥ 50% in large cap USD1bn+o ≤ 10% in one stocko ≤ 30% in one sectoro ≤ 50% in the top 10 stockso Minimum investments in 30 stocks

• Tactically switching to cash from time to time

Exposure Limits

• Diversification across industries • Diversification across Mcap with

focus on liquidity• Flexible investment style – Growth

as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Investment Universe

A prudent risk management strategy is the core of our investment philosophy

• Sharp Price movement triggers review of stock

• Close eye on valuation with focus on Margin of Safety

Review Points

Page 4: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

We Create Wealth

3 Tenets to Equity investing Believe in ‘Time in the

Market’ rather than ‘Timing the market’

Growth as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Diversification across sectors helps us to play sectoral

over/underweight strategy

Long term investment approach

Flexible investment style

Sectoral diversification

3M Stock Selection Approach

Identify Size of Sector Opportunity

Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in the sector

Identify the stock for investment with

Reasonable Valuation

M: Market Size

M: Market Share

M: Margin of Safety

4

Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment returns

The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading players in the industry

The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin of Safety

Page 5: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Leading To Multibagger Returns

5Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonusGain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as per price mentioned

Stock Purchase Date

Purchase Price (Rs)

Price(Rs)28-Feb-2017

Motherson Sumi* 28-Jan-10 41 244

Eicher Motors* 08-Aug-13 3343 15249

Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360

Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 16111

Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 5922

Ramco Cements 28-Mar-14 213 665

Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302

Siyaram Silk Mills 01-Aug-14 604 1686

Indo Count Industries* 19-Dec-14 297 785

Timken India 22-May-14 233 609

Bayer Cropscience* 05-May-14 1427 3547

Welspun India* 09-Jan-14 80 198

Atlas Copco* 28-Jun-10 1115 2750

Capital Trust 29-Jun-15 253 601

Mannapuram Finance* 16-Dec-15 29 69

ITD Cementation* 23-Feb-15 65 143

Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 514 1080

Gabriel India* 01-Aug-14 55 114

HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1390

HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1370

KNR Construction* 03-Dec-14 304 608

CARE* 25-Mar-14 732 1447

Infosys 26-Nov-09 537 1012

Cholamandalam Investments* 01-Mar-16 654 1185

3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 11164

Honeywell Automation 30-Jun-14 5790 9978

Alfa Laval India* 17-Nov-11 2246 3856

Capital First* 06-Nov-13 218 372

L&T 11-Apr-13 869 1469

Whirlpool Of India 02-Mar-16 644 1037

495%

356%

353%

304%

257%

212%

196%

179%

164%

161%

149%

148%

147%

138%

135%

120%

110%

108%

107%

105%

100%

98%

88%

81%

72%

72%

72%

71%

69%

61%

Gain (%)

Page 6: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

6

Earnings Matrix Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP

FY16 FY16 FY17E FY17E FY18E FY18E

EPS G(%) -1% 15% 8% 15% 12% 24%

ROE(%) 13% 17% 14% 18% 14% 20%

P/E(x) 21.5 19.9 27.0 17.7 19.4

P/BV(x) 2.8 2.7 4.7 2.5 4.0

AAA Portfolio Superior Earnings Growth

Source: AAA Research

13%15%

24%

-1%

8%

12%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

FY16 FY17E FY18E

EPS Growth(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

17%18%

20%

13% 14%

16%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY16 FY17E FY18E

ROE(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Source: AAA Research Source: AAA Research

Page 7: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Wealth Creation – A Case Study

7

Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5% USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at

~12% Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian

players in USA and Europe

Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years

Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over next 2-3 years

Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE

Indo Count Industries Ltd

India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020

Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E

At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading to significant headroom for growth

Market share of ~8% Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product to

improve its market share Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels Strong parentage means access to new technology to

offer world class products to Indian consumers

Expect significant growth in profitability backed by operating efficiency and higher volume growth

Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E –lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC which trades at average PE of >20x

M1

Mar

ket

size

M2

Mar

ket

Shar

eM

3M

argi

n o

f sa

fety

Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd

4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally

Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years and further expanding to 90 mn meters

Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed linen segment leading to improved operating margins

No major investment in backward integration – leading to highest ROE of 44% in the industry

Page 8: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

The Investment Process….

Stock Identification

Analysis & Decision making Process

Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing

Exiting & Realizing Value

• Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a universe of 450 companies• Filter approach – using variety of valuation parameters• Strong intermediary relationship

• Initial screening• Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence• Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval

• Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to decide optimum return potential • Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to evaluate Margin of Safety• Change in underlying assumptions of investment thesis

• Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term investment objective

• Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk management• Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen systems, controls and CG

in line with best practices

8

Page 9: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

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Exit Strategy As Important As Entry Strategy

Fundamental Consistency check No. of BSE 500 Stocks

PAT growth 20%+ every year during FY06-FY15 0

Revenue growth of 10%+ every year with ROE15%+ during FY06-15

16

Exit Strategy

When target price of the stock is reached and the risk rewards seems unfavorable

When change in business fundamentals resulting in negative earnings expectations

When weightage of the stock is higher than the desired allocation

When the other stock has better risk-reward

Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs

01 Jan 2001

Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs

01 Jan 2011

ACC DLF

Ambuja Cement Hindalco

Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates

Castrol India JSPL

GSK Pharma Reliance Communication

Grasim Sterlite

HPCL Tata Power

MTNL

Novartis

Ranbaxy

Reliance Infra

Reliance Petro

Satyam

Zee

Page 10: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Market Outlook

10

Page 11: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Round Up – February 2017

11

In the USA, the macro data continues to surprise positively - the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 in Feb17 from 56.0 inJan17 - the highest reading since Aug14 amid rising new orders and production. President Trump, reiterated his views onincreased spending on infrastructure & defence and encouraging domestic manufacturing to create more jobs locally. Macrodata from Euro area and China also continue to be neutral to positive.

From deflation scare to inflationary scenario: Until sometime back, the world was fearful of deflation, as the commodity priceshave stabilised, the inflationary trend is coming back, as is evident from:

• USA: CPI increased 2.5% YoY in Jan17 - highest in last 3 years;• Euro area: Consumer prices increased 1.8% YoY in Jan17 - highest since Feb13;• China: Inflation in Jan17 was the highest in last 2.5 years

A moderate inflation is good for global economic growth, which in turn is good for equity markets - as it improves nominal GDPand hence higher revenue and net profit.

Recent release of government data showed that the impact of demonetisation on the economy was less than anticipated as theQ3FY17 GDP grew by 7%, which was higher than the expected. The Nikkei PMI inched up to 50.7 in Feb17 Vs 50.4 inJan17 indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiments. RBI kept policy rate unchanged and shifted its stance fromAccommodative to Neutral. This was premised on second-round impact of sticky-to-rising core inflation, tighter global financialconditions, FX volatility and higher commodity prices. Improved global commodity prices has improved balance sheet of Metalcompanies in India, which is relief for lenders as banks have huge exposure to metal sector.

For 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal,Oil & Gas and Power sector reported healthy earnings growth while Consumption related stocks have been impacted more bydemonetisation. Post 'Demon', Indian economy is slowly coming back to its normalcy. This is reflected in volume growth of cars,CVs, cement and other macro economic indicators. Private sector capex is yet to witness any major recovery and Investment iscontinued to be led by government spending (mainly roads, railways, urban Infra).

Equity remains the most attractive asset class and we remain positive with 3years+ view. We believe any correction must beconsidered as an opportunity to invest.

Page 12: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

UDAY (Ujwal Distribution companies (DISCOMs) Assurance Yojana) financial turnaround and revival package for DISCOMS via improving efficiency, reducing cost, and enforcing discipline

Bankruptcy Bill and Indradhanush to improve flow of capital and recapitalise public sector banks

Auction-based allocation of natural resources (e.g., coal)

Goods and Services Tax (GST) to streamline and simplify the national tax system

Direct Benefits Transfer (through the Jan Dhan–Aadhaar–mobile trinity) to promote direct transfers of financial benefits to beneficiaries’ bank accounts

Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (Housing for All by 2022)

India – Ongoing Reforms…

12

Page 13: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

…that will enable faster and better economic growth

13

Source: AAA Research

2.3 2.4 2.22.8

3.33.9

4.6

7.6

2 2.2 2.23

3.64.5

5.4

9.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Gross NPA (%)

All Banks Public Sector Banks

Source: RBI, AAA Research

3

6 6

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16YTD

Stressed Asset Sale (US$ bn)

142134 130

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2014 2015 2016 2020E

India - Ease of business doing rankings

Source: World Bank

0.5

0.25

0.5

0 0

0.25

0

0.25 0.25

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

4Q

FY1

7E

Interest Rate Cuts (%)

Source: RBI, AAA Research

Page 14: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

From Cash to Digital Economy = Better Governance

14

UID Enrollments

100 Cr (80%)

5.9 Cr

(60%)

Aadhar linked MNERGS Cards

11.4 Cr

(45%)

Aadhar linked ration cards

12.3 Cr

(71%)

Aadhar linked LPG Connections

Jan Dhan

25 Cr Aadhar linked Bank

accounts opened

US$7-8bn savings annually

69

69

68

59

55

47

45

43

38

31

30

20

14

11

11

10

8

7

Indonesia

Russia

India

Thailand

Malaysia

Mexico

China

Brazil

Japan

Singapore

Korea

US

Australia

Sweden

UK

Canada

France

Belgium

Share of Cash based transactions(%)

Source: Master card Source: RBI, Ministry Of Finance

Page 15: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Size Of Opportunity For Organised Sector

15

Source: Edelweiss, AAA Research

Demonetisation and GST will lead to market share shift from unorganised to organised sector, leading to 3-10x increase in Size of opportunity in the listed equity space.

Packaging

Electrical Equipment

Plastics

Tiles

Apparels

Plywood

Dairy

Diagnostics

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

Un

org

anis

ed

Sh

are

(%)

Size of Oppportunity (Organised Sector)(no of times over 10 years)

4-5x

6-9x

Page 16: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Improving Macro Economic Factors

16

Source: PPAC, AAA Research Source: IDFC Research, AAA Research

6.37.0

9.48.8

10.2

6.37.2

8.9

6.9 6.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

Traffic Growth (%)

913

10

19

1

0

0

-1

4

9

14

21

-5-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

2W Volume Growth(%)

-7.9 -6.8

1.4

7.5

2.54.5

6.2 6.3

14.6

2.4

6.7

17.7

1.8

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

PV Volume Growth(%)

Source: Ace Equity, AAA Research

0.81.6

4.4 4.63.5

5.46.6

11.0 11.1

14.7

10.2

5.9

7.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

3Q

FY1

4

4Q

FY1

4

1Q

FY1

5

2Q

FY1

5

3Q

FY1

5

4Q

FY1

5

1Q

FY1

6

2Q

FY1

6

3Q

FY1

6

4Q

FY1

6

1Q

FY1

7

2Q

FY1

7

3Q

FY1

7

Fuel Consumption Growth(%)

Source: Ace Equity, AAA Research

Page 17: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Drivers Of Growth – Investment By Government

17

9900

20003621

798010000

25000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

MORTH Project Awards (Kms)

Source: MORTH, AAA Research

24.3

5.7

16.9 17.9

27.1

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17*

States Capex Growth(%)

Source: MOSL Research, AAA Research *(01 April 2016 – 30 Sept 2016)

5

12 11

16

32

19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E

Railways Expenditure growth (%)

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

Page 18: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08

18

Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research

Source: RBI, AAA Research

4.2

5.4

3.8

8.07.1

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.6 8.9

6.7

4.5 4.75.5

7.67.1

0123456789

1011

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

GDP Growth (%)

5.0

2.7

5.7

7.0

11.7

8.6

12.9

15.5

2.5

5.3

8.2

2.9

1.1

2.8 2.41.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

IIP Growth(%)

Average IIP: 5.6%

Average IIP: 6.9%

Page 19: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Dissecting the economic recovery of FY03-08

27%

40% 39.7%

16%

31%

47.9%

26%

90%

47.3%

23%

11%

26.1%

53%

65%

45.8%

33%

60%

72.3%

43%

62%

22.0%

32%

73%

54.4%

17.6%

15.6%

52.2%

21% 21%

26.6%25%

38.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

PA

T

Mca

p

Auto Banking Cement ConsumerFMCG

ConsumerDurables

Engineering IT Mining &Metal

Oil & Gas Pharma Sensex

Sectoral CAGR FY03-08 (%)

Source: BSE, AAA Research

Sensex Net profit CAGR: 25.0%Sensex Returns CAGR : 38.7%

Market Cap Returns > Net Profit Growth

19

Page 20: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

BSE Auto BSE Banking BSEConsumer

Durable

BSE CapitalGoods

BSE FMCG BSEHealthcare

BSE IT BSE Metal Sensex

5.3x

6.6x

3.3x 3.2x 2.7x

8.7x

15x

7x

5.1x

Source: BSE

Sensex went up by 5.1xCyclical indices went up by 5-15x

Dissecting The Economic Recovery Of FY03-08

20

Page 21: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Focus On Stock Earnings Growth - Earnings Growth To Bounce Back

21

Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research

81 129 181

250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272

348 450

523

718 833 820 834

1,024 1,124

1,183

1,340 1,355 1,340 1,447

1,621

1,913

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY93-96EPS CAGR 45%

FY96-03: EPS CAGR 1%

FY03-08 EPSCAGR 25%

FY08-16 EPSCAGR 6.1%

FY16-19E EPSCAGR 12.6%

Sensex CAGR -1.4%

Sensex CAGR 38.7%

Sensex CAGR 6.2%

SensexCAGR

??

Sensex CAGR 13.9%

After reporting single digit earnings growth (FY08-16), Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit growth (FY16-19E)

Page 22: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Big Events during last three years

22

China Slowdown – Fall in commodity prices

China – Yuan Devaluation

BrExit – Europe Slowdown

US election – Donald Trump elected against prediction

Demonetization Impact

Performance *CNX Nifty *AAA PMS

2 Years -0.2% 25.7%

3 Years 41.5% 128.7%

5 Years 64.9% 210.1%

Uncertainty in the short term creates opportunity in the long term

*Data ending for the period 28 Feb 2017

Page 23: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Market Valuations

23

Sensex @28743 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19EEPS (Rs) 821 826 1,013 1,123 1,185 1,340 1,355 1,340 1,447 1,621 1,913

EPS G(%) -1% 1% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 8% 12% 18%

BV (Rs) 4,441 5,101 5,944 6,842 7,790 8,862 9,540 10,143 10,722 11,370 12,135

P/E(x) 24.8 23.5 21.2 21.2 21.5 19.9 17.7 15.0

P/BV(x) 3.7 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4

ROE(%) 18.5% 16.2% 17.0% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 13.5% 14.3% 15.8%Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research

Source: AAA ResearchSource: AAA Research

7

12

17

22

27

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Feb

-16

Feb

-17

P/E Fwd (x)

P/E Fwd(x)

Mean 17.0x

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Feb

-16

Feb

-17

P/B Fwd (x)

P/B Fwd(x)

Mean 2.7x

Page 24: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

The people running the show at AlfAccurate Advisors

24

Page 25: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

The AlfAccurate Advisors Team

25

Rajesh Kothari Govind Agrawal

Founder and Managing Director Director

Bhushan Koli

Head Operations and Compliance

Bhushan Koli

Page 26: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Award Winning Investment Team

Mr. Rajesh Kothari – Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)

Rich experience of more than 22 years in Indian capital market

Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy

Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) – USA based India dedicated

fund for two and half years

During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark indices significantly

Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock) Fund Managers Ltd for

more than four years

During his tenure equity assets under management grew from USD100m to USD1.5bn

The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming

benchmark indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively

The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking” consistently during his tenure

26

Page 27: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Achievements:

Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014

Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity Fund

Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years

DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)

He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on Indian Infrastructure

(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)

Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit

Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on Governance

Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.

Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative

Award Winning Investment Team

27

Page 28: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Glimpses Of Superior Performance To Benchmark Index

28Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-Dec08

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

Funds managed by Rajesh(%) BSE 500 Index(%)

26.6% CAGRRs 10,000 invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 2,55,508

*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010) #(1 Apr 2016 – 28 Feb 2017)

-50

0

50

100

150

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08 FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

DSP MerillLynch MF Voyager AlfAccurate Advisors

Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index

13.3% CAGR

Page 29: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Mr. Govind Agrawal – Director (FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)

Rich experience of 28 years in finance out of which last 22 years in Indian capital market

Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn) for over

four years.

Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark indices by 35% since

its inception.

Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for India and Emerging

Market as Investment Theme

Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk

Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India Pvt Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4 years

Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs

Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings

Award Winning Investment Team

29

Page 30: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years

Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and processes

Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising the clients on sectoral allocation

and stock selection

Achievements

Represented Reliance AMC on international platforms and panel discussion on Emerging Markets and Indian

Equity Market

Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,

Europe and in India

At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”

Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for consistently contributing to Institutional Equity Sales

30

Award Winning Investment Team

Page 31: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

The AlfAccurate Advisors philosophy

31

Page 32: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

AlfAccurate Advisors

To be the world’s most admired investment advisor

We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined experience of 70+ years

Protect Capital , Create Wealth

32

Page 33: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Our Guiding Principles

Ambition

Entrepreneurship

Accountability

Passion

Excellence

Commitment

Teamwork

Integrity

Meritocracy

33

Page 34: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Investment Philosophy...

34

Fundamental Research core ofour investment management

Long Term Horizon

Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market

Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research

Benchmark aware but not driven

Flexible investment style

Focus on margin safety

Page 35: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Combined With Investment Discipline...

Parameter Rules Current Position

Cap Exposure At least 50% in large cap(More than USD1bn) 57.0% invested in large cap

Sector Weightage Not more than 30% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 20.6%

Stock WeightageNot more than 10% in a given stock and not more than 50% in the top 10 Stocks

Maximum Exposure in a given stock is 3.7%. Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 27.6%

Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 53 stocks

Stock Universe 450 Corporates 450 Corporates

Number of Stocks: 53Number of Sectors: 16Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio: 27.6%Data as on 28 Feb 2017 35

57%

22%

16%

5%

Portfolio Allocation

Large Mid Small Cash

Sector Allocation

Agri Input Auto Auto Ancillary Banking

Cement Chemicals Construction Consumer

Engineering Media Oil & Gas Others

Pharma Power Software Textiles

Cash & Cash Equivalent

Page 36: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Leading To Superior Performance

Performance (%) FY17YTD# FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 22.6 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 9.6 18.6 324.7

BSE 500 Index 19.6 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 82.9

BSE Sensex 13.4 (9.4) 24.9 18.8 8.2 (10.5) 10.9 67.3

CNX Nifty 14.7 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 74.0

*(23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017)(Management fees adjusted); #(1 April 2016 – 28 Feb 2017)

AAA India Opp. plan consistently not only outperformed but also generated Positive return in volatile markets

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

36

18.69.6 11.2

29.0

71.7

2.5

22.6

7.5

-9.1

4.8

17.1

33.2

-7.8

19.6

-20

0

20

40

60

80

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17YTD#

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity BSE 500 Index

Page 37: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Leading To Superior Performance

37

AAA India Opp Plan ranks # 1 compared with 141 diversified funds of each reputed fund house

Average Monthly Rolling Returns Since Inception(%)

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Compounded Annual Returns (%)

1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 35.1 12.1 31.8 25.4 22.1

BSE 500 Index 32.3 3.1 16.5 12.2 8.7

BSE Sensex 25.0 -1.1 10.8 10.1 7.4

CNX Nifty 27.1 -0.1 12.3 10.5 7.9

*(23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)

*Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)

Source: Bloomberg

Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds Since Inception(%)

324.7

188.0

133.8106.7

63.782.9 67.3 74.0

AAA IndiaOpp.Plan*

Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 BSE 500Index

BSESensex

S&P CNXNifty

24.126.0 25.0

9.210.4 9.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 Year 3 year 5 Year

AAA India Opp. Plan BSE 500 Index

Page 38: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

38

Risk Analysis : AAA IOP PMS Performance compared to Benchmark

Parameters How to read ratioAAA IOP

PMSBSE500 Index

AAA IOP PMS performance

BetaLess than 1 beta is good sign as it denotes lower volatility of the

portfolio0.85 1.0

Beta of 0.85 shows AAA PMS has lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index

Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit of

deviation. Higher the Sharpe ratio, better it is.

1.0 0.10Top Performing Midcap MFs have Sharpe Ratio 0.75+. AAA IOP PMS Sharpe ratio is

one the best in the industry.

Standard DeviationStandard deviation denotes

amount of variation14.6 15.6

AAA IOP SD is less than Benchmark as well as peer group which shows portfolio has

lower risk

Upside capture It denotes overall performance

of PMS during up market. 150.29 100.0

Upside capture ratio of more than 100 indicates that fund has outperformed

Benchmark during positive market.

Downside captureIt denotes overall performance

of PMS during down market. 78.8 100.0

Ratio of less than 100 indicates, fund has outperformed Benchmark during negative

market.

Capture Ratio

Capture ratio >1 indicates, Investment Manager has gained

more during up (positive) market and lose less during

down (negative market).

1.91 1AAA PMS 1.91 capture ratio is healthy as

it protected capital during negative market and building wealth consistently.

Data is analysed since inception of AAA IOP PMS data i.e. 23 Nov 2009-28 Feb 2017

Page 39: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

AAA IOP PMS Rolling Return Analysis

39

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 28 Feb 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)

Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)

AAA IOP 1 Year

BSE500 Index 1 Year

AAA IOP3 Years

BSE500Index 3 Years

AAA IOP 5 Years

BSE500 Index 5 years

No of obervations 77.0 77.0 53.00 53.00 29.00 29.00

No of Positive Observations 71.0 57.0 53.00 47.00 29.00 29.00

No of Negative Observations 6.0 20.0 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00

Loss Probability (%) 7.8% 26.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Average Returns (%) 24.1% 9.2% 26.0% 10.4% 25.0% 9.5%

Median Returns (%) 17.1% 5.8% 29.7% 12.1% 24.6% 9.5%

Maximum Returns (%) 88.8% 51.3% 41.0% 22.9% 28.5% 13.8%

Minimum Returns (%) -13.8% -27.4% 6.2% -4.2% 21.9% 5.6%

AAA has delivered average returns of 24.1%, 26.0% and 25.0% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on monthly rolling return basis

Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0

Page 40: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.

The Power Of Compounding – A Scenario Analysis

40

Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores

The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term

12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR

30Yrs

150 Cr

9 Cr

20Yrs5Yrs 10Yrs

16 Cr

48Cr

331 Cr

20 Cr

5Yrs

82 Cr

20Yrs 30Yrs10Yrs

10 Cr

10Yrs 30Yrs

717 Cr

20Yrs

137 Cr

26 Cr

5Yrs

11 Cr

30Yrs20Yrs

1,187 Cr

5Yrs

31 Cr

192 Cr

10Yrs

12 Cr

18% CAGR

Page 41: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Why We Should Be Your Choice Of Investment Advisory

41

Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets

Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy

Sound Research capabilities

Award winning investment team and track record Process driven organization

Adequate infrastructure to support scalability

Integrity and ethics as the core of the business

Access to Founders – founders are fund managers

Staggered investment approach

Client centric business model

No conflict of interest

Page 42: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Product Features

42

Name of plan AAA India Opportunity Equity PMS Plan

Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation

Investment ThemeTo invest in listed companies with combination of high growth stocks as well as value stocks

Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari

Director Govind Agrawal

Custodians Deutsche Bank, India

Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India

Depository Participant IL&FS, India

Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer

Page 43: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

Awards and Recognitions

43

Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014

Lipper Fund Award – India 2007

Page 44: Capital t e Wealth - AlfAccurate AdvisorsFor 3QFY17, Nifty 50 (ex-Tata Motors) reported revenue and net profit growth of 8.4% and 14.8% respectively. Cement, Metal, Oil & Gas and Power

44

Thank You Rajesh KothariT: +91 22 42360301M:+91 98200 [email protected]

Govind AgrawalT: +91 22 42360 311M: +91 93208 [email protected]

AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd503, B Wing, Naman Midtown,Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, IndiaT: +91 22 42360300; F: +91 22 42360333 [email protected]

Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely foryour information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is based uponpublicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are our currentopinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without AlfAccurate AdvisorsPvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot beguaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.

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