Capacity Building in AnalyticalTools for Estimating and

Comparing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Projects in Africa.

ContentsOverall objectivesExpected Project resultsCountries $ Sectors coveredKey Outputs Methodological Framework for

Adaptation Projects –Cost and BenefitsApproach

Sectoral and Adaptation Project Reviewand Selection

Adaptation Project Definition andMethodology Development

Scenario Development Data Collection and Model

Development/Modification Estimation of Adaptation Costs and

Benefits Conclusion

Overall Project Objectives

•To help build and strengthen the institutional capacity within Africa •To develop and implement analytical tools for estimating and comparing the costs and benefits of adaptation projects in key economic sectors.

Expected Project Results

Results from the study will contribute to the development of international climate change policies and programs, particularly in regard to adaptation activities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Countries and Sectors Covered

• Countries: Southern Africa and West Africa. • Sectors: Emphasis will be placed on projects that reduce the impact of climate change in the agricultural and water resources sector.

Key Outputs

•Mid-term Report•Final Technical Report•Policy Report describing the framework and procedures for comparing the costs and benefits of adaptation projects•Inputs to IPCC expert meetings•Future IPCC Assessment Reports•Submissions to peer-reviewed journals.

Methodological Framework forAdaptation Projects - Cost and BenefitAnalysis

Analysis/Objective – extention of the initialmodel to include:

Integration of Climate Change andClimate Variability

Policy Actions Evaluation of climate adaptation ad-ons Evaluation of ‘No-regrets’ options Linking markets to projects

Methodological Framework forAdaptation Projects - Cost and BenefitAnalysis

Analysis/Objective – extention of the initialmodel to include:

Integration of Climate Change andClimate Variability

Policy Actions Evaluation of climate adaptation ad-ons Evaluation of ‘No-regrets’ options Linking markets to projects

These various fronts will be tied together todevelop a methodological framework forevaluating the costs and benefits of both“pure” and development-related adaptationprojects.

Sectoral and Adaptation Project Reviewand Selection

Analysis/Objective - to select the countries,sectors and adaptation projects that will beinvestigated on this project.

Tasks: Collecting information from existing

studies and on-going research regardingthe vulnerability of selected sectors ofcountries in the Southern AfricanDevelopment Cooperation (SADC) regionand West Africa and about the models anddata needed to project the geo- andbiophysical impacts of climate change inthese sectors.

Collecting information about differenttypes of potential types of adaptationprojects that can be implemented in thesecountries and sectors to offset the geo- andbiophysical impacts of climate change.Screening will be done for a list of specifictypes of adaptation projects (1 – 4) pairedto vulnerable resource sectors in eachselected country.

Adaptation Project Definition and Methodology Development

Analysis/Objectives - to formally define each adaptation project in terms of its physical and behavioural characteristics and to identify and describe the models and methods to be used.

Tasks:

characterizing the project selected. These will be both structural and non structural in nature.

identifying the models/methods and datarequired to estimate the benefits and costsof an adaptation project. To do this oneideally needs to be able to characterize, orrepresent, a number of different linkedprocesses: Climate models/scenario generators Impact models. Behavioural/economic models Valuation models

Scenario Development

Analysis/Objective - to define the regionalclimate and behavioural scenarios that willbe used to characterize climate change andclimate variability for each adaptationproject.

Starting points for an assessment of thebenefits and costs of an adaptation project ina less developed country:

To start the analysis by generatingspecific climate scenarios for the project“locations”, and develop values forrelevant meteorological variables fromthese climate scenarios, or

To start the analysis using a parametricrepresentation of the relevantmeteorological (or impact) variables,without any numerical lineage in climatemodelling, or

Possibly a hybrid approach that links thetwo.

Analysis will:

Describe the climate/impact scenarios tobe used and how they were constructed,paying key attention to the elements thatwill be varied in the project assessmentsthrough sensitivity analysis

Describe the behavioural scenarios used topartial out the effects of climate changewith and without the option

Describe the methodologies/models to beused to characterise the impacts of climatechange (and changes in climate variability)with and without the option

Describe the methodologies/models usedto project the behaviour of economicagents in response to policy changes andhow economic agents will behave withand without the option under differentclimate scenarios

Describe the methodology used to accountfor project costs and benefits.

Data Collection and ModelDevelopment/Modification

Objectives - to collect the data needed toimplement the models and methods defined

The following kinds of data will be gatheredin this task:

Data needed to characterize projectconstruction, maintenance and operationactivities and estimate the costs of theseactivities for each adaptation project

Climatic and geophysical data needed toimplement the various climate and impactscenarios

Data needed to estimate the parameters of,calibrate, and/or evaluate driver variablesin the impact model(s) used for eachproject

Data needed to estimate the parameters of,calibrate, and/or evaluate driver variablesin the impact/impact and valuationmodel(s) used for each project

Possible Models to be Used:

Impact Models: empirical models, processimpact models

Behavioural/economic and ValuationModels: empirical models, normativemodels

Estimation of Adaptation Costs andBenefits

Task Description: to estimate the costs andbenefits (value of damages avoided) by eachadaptation project. The study team willestimate the costs and benefits of eachadaptation project by comparing two typesof climate and “behavioural” changes acrossdifferent scenarios.

Conclusion

Multi-criteria Assessment of Vulnerabilityand Adaptation

Use of Mapping Tools to Present Multi-criteria Vulnerability