CAP INDEX VALIDATION STUDY Over 500,000 Address-Specific Crimes Reported in Canada

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About the Analysis

QUICK FACTThe results are based on an analysis of 518,369 address-specific

crimes reported by 7 police forces across Canada from 2015-2018.

Disclaimer: This Report is copyrighted and is the property of CAP Index, Inc. (CAP). CAP has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and complete information in this Report. CAP makes no representations or warranties that the information provided within this Report is accurate, complete, or current. The contents of this Report are the property of CAP. You may print and download portions of material from the different areas of the Report solely for your own non-commercial use. Any other copying, redistribution, retransmission, or publication of any Report material is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of CAP. By accepting this Report, you agree not to change or delete any information included in the Report. In no event shall CAP be liable for any special, indirect, or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data, or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence, or other action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of documents, services, or information available from this Report.

The findings presented in this Report are intended to provide a basis of understanding for the reader on the issues presented. The information is not to be construed or used as a substitute for specific legal advice and may not reflect an analysis of all relevant variables or the operational feasibility of the considerations presented. Individuals seeking legal advice for a particular problem or issue should obtain advice from an attorney of their choosing.

CAP Index continues to maintain its leadership position as the preeminent source of accurate and comprehensive risk assessment information. The CRIMECAST® scoring system is based on the strong relationship between a neighborhood’s “social disorganization” and the amount of crime that occurs there. The social disorganization theory views weakly-organized social environments as a major determinant of criminal activity.

CAP Index conducted a study to validate the strength of the correlation between CAP Index Scores and crime frequencies reported by 7 police forces representing major cities across Canada from 2015-2018. Over 500,000 address-specific crimes were assessed, and the following crime categories were analyzed: Homicide, Robbery, Assault, Breaking and Entering, Theft, Theft of Motor Vehicle, and Mischief. Each incident was assigned a CAP Index Score and grouped into one of four CAP Index Risk Categories.

Please Note: The available years and crime types varied by police force. The analysis was based on the addresses and/or coordinates provided by each police force and relied upon the data made available; therefore, there is no guarantee that it includes a full representation of all crimes occurring within the selected cities.

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ASSAULT

n 0-99 0.0%

n 100-199 4.9%

n 200-399 44.9%

n 400-2000 50.2%

HOMICIDE ROBBERY

n 0-99 0.0% 0.1%

n 100-199 3.8% 3.8%

n 200-399 33.2% 35.0%

n 400-2000 63.0% 61.1%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Persons occurred

in socially disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index Scores.

• The percentages of crimes that were reported at locations with above-average CAP Index Scores (100+) were:

• 100.0% for Homicide

• 99.9% for Robbery

• 100.0% for Assault

Crimes Against Persons by CAP Index Risk Category

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BREAKING AND ENTERING THEFT

n 0-99 0.1% 0.1%

n 100-199 6.7% 6.6%

n 200-399 40.1% 37.2%

n 400-2000 53.1% 56.1%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Property occurred

in socially disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index Scores.

• The percentages of crimes that were reported at locations with above-average CAP Index Scores (100+) were:

• 99.9% for Breaking and Entering

• 99.9% for Theft

• 99.8% for Theft of Motor Vehicle

• 99.9% for Mischief

Crimes Against Propertyby CAP Index Risk Category

THEFT OF MOTOR VEHICLE MISCHIEF

n 0-99 0.2% 0.1%

n 100-199 8.0% 3.0%

n 200-399 47.9% 26.8%

n 400-2000 43.9% 70.1%

ACCURACY, INTEGRITY, AND RELIABILITY OUTSMART CRIME

CAP Index pioneered the business crime forecasting industry. For 30 years, the team that developed CAP’s landmark model was led by an internationally renowned PhD criminologist. This model, grounded in the theory of social disorganization, has been repeatedly validated and refined for decades, using millions of corporate loss reports.

How it’s built matters. CAP Index builds its models using millions of address-specific crime and loss reports, characterizing each neighborhood with pinpoint accuracy.

Our data and legal expertise have passed the court’s toughest test. CAP Index’s crime risk data and legal professionals are frequently used by clients to support (and win) premises liability litigation in civil court cases. We’ve passed the “Daubert Challenge” in federal court cases, which is the toughest rule of evidence standard for the admissibility of expert witness testimony.

Data are only one part of the crime risk solutions we deliver to clients. CAP Index provides crime risk data, but data are only one part of our crime risk intelligence portfolio. Our services range from crime analytics to strategic security consulting; and from asset protection software development to litigation support.

There are more than 7,000 reasons why companies select CAP Index. Our clients include over 80 of the companies in the Fortune 100. We also have more than 7,000 business and government clients of all sizes and in every industry sector. We can arrange for you to speak directly with long-time CAP Index clients with needs similar to yours.

SECURITY RESOURCE ALLOCATION

SITE ASSESSMENT

SITE

SELECTIONLITIGATION &

PROACTIVE DEFENSE

RISK MATRIX DEVELOPMENT

TIERING LOCATIONS

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

LOSS FORECASTING

STATISTICS & DEMOGRAPHICS

Education Data

Economic Data

Population Mobility

Housing Data

Population Data

National Police Data

Local Police Data

Client Loss Reports

Offender Surveys

Victim Surveys

CRIMINOLOGY & COMPUTER MODELING

CRIMECAST® Model

SCORING SYSTEM

CRIMECAST®MAPS REPORTS

Applications of CAPData™

Why CAP Index?

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3-Mile Methodology: Summary

Massey Hall178 Victoria St, Toronto, ON M5B 1T7Latitude: 43.653982, Longitude: -79.379025

CRIMECAST Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest - 100 is average. A score of 321 is 3.21 times higher than average.

This site’s 2019 National CAP Index Score:

321CRIMECAST Contour Map

Inner Radius: 0.4 mi (0.7 km) • Outer Radius: 0.8 mi (1.2 km)

100-199

0-99

200-399

400-799

800-2000

100-199

0-99 200-399

400-799

800-2000

0-99 100-299 200-399 400-799 800-2000

0-99 100-299 200-399 400-799 800-2000

0-99 100-299 200-399 400-799 800-2000

0-99 100-199 200-399 400-799 800-2000

0-99 100-299 200-399 400-799 800-2000

0-99 100-299 200-399 400-799 800-2000

Score Ranges:

CRIMECAST CATEGORY SCORE

CAP Index 321

Homicide 381

Sexual Assault 211

Robbery 384

Assault 428

Crimes Against Persons 381

Breaking & Entering 102

Theft 424

Motor Vehicle Theft 314

Crimes Against Property 358

CAP INDEX SCORE Past - 2016 319

Current - 2019 321

Projected - 2024 332

CRIMECAST Tract Map

Inner Radius: 0.4 mi (0.7 km) • Outer Radius: 0.8 mi (1.2 km)

Creation Date: Month xx, 2018 CRIMECAST is a trademark of CAP Index, Inc.

Please note terms and conditions as presented on http://crimecast.capindex.com/terms.aspx.

SAMPLE REPORT

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About the CRIMECAST Maps & Scores

CRIMECAST ReportsWith a detailed, color-coded map and a spreadsheet of risk scores, users can identify potential asset protection concerns surrounding an address. A quick glance at the map shows the site in relation to its environment. The CRIMECAST Scores allow for an in-depth analysis of the overall crime risk.

CRIMECAST ScoresA The CAP Index Score represents the overall risk of crime at the address.

• CRIMECAST Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest – 100 is average.

• A score of 600 is 6 times higher than average, and a score of 25 indicates that the risk is 1/4 the average.

CRIMECAST MapsB Census areas are outlined in blue. There are over 23,000 census

areas in Canada. Each area contains over 1,000 residents with similar socioeconomic characteristics. Every census area is assigned a numeric risk score and a coinciding risk shading.

C The site map is color-coded to depict the level of risk within each area and identify the potential origin of criminal behavior. CAP Index Score ranges are used to assign risk shading similar to that of the green, yellow, and red color scheme found on a traffic light.

D The contour site map shows the risk dispersion based on every point across the map being scored using our radius/threshold methodology. Points are then joined together to create contours.

E A radius threshold analysis is used to determine a site’s overall risk. The inner radius represents 1 mile (1.6 km) or a population of 25,000, equaling 2/3 of the overall score. The outer radius represents 3 miles (4.8 km) or a population of 100,000, providing the remaining 1/3. In addition to the 3-mile methodology shown to the left, a 6-mile methodology is also available. This methodology applies an inner radius of 2 miles (3.2 km) or a population of 100,000 and an outer radius of 6 miles (9.7 km) or a population of 400,000.

| 7©2019 CAP Index, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

©2019 CAP Index, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

About CAP Index

For 30 years, CAP Index has been the leader in crime risk forecasting, serving over 80% of the Fortune 100. Today more than 7,000 businesses and government agencies use our CRIMECAST® Maps and Reports, analytics, and tools to help optimize resources, limit exposure, and minimize losses. We help security, loss prevention, and risk management professionals objectively measure, thoroughly analyze, and proactively manage their crime risks.

Let CAP Index help you Outsmart Crime®.

Contact Information Email: askcap@capindex.com Phone: 800-227-7475