Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program

“Strengthening Canada’s long-term competitiveness, it’s natural environment and the well-being of it’s citizens”

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AQRB Mid-Term Review 2004

Outline

• Current Status• Challenges & next steps

Current Program Status • Program built on national infrastructure with

regional product delivery• National Infrastructure – Weather and Numerical

Models• Local and regional forecasts developed as

appropriate given local conditions and partnerships • HQ provides scientific tools and program support• Regions and partners have improvised, making best

use of partnerships, using appropriate tools and advancing at their own rate

• New National Coordinator – AQF– Reports to DG AEPD– Consults closely with AQRB/CMC/PCAD– Objective is to build a “dynamic” forecast program

that is relevant to Canadians

Regional Forecasts

• Forecasts are now available to 75% of the Canadian population through regional production & dissemination

• Pacific &Yukon– 16 regions Daily AQI numerical forecasts (PM10 and ozone) now

year round

• Prairie and Northern – Experimental CHRONOS based forecast

– Ventilation Index Forecast

• Ontario (Province and MSC) – 28 regions AQI category forecast (PM2.5 and ozone) year round

Regional Forecasts

• Quebec– 13 regions (S. Quebec) daily AQI category forecast (ozone)

summertime

– PM2.5 when greater than 70 ug/m3 per 3 hr running average

– Greater Montreal wintertime daily category forecast (PM2.5)

• Atlantic– 15 regions twice daily AQI numerical forecast (ozone)

summertime

– Evaluation of CHRONOS PM2.5 capability

– Experimental Wintertime category forecast

Program Challenges and Next Steps

• Current program developed from an “ad-hoc” approach. Requires National leadership to provide vision, establish priorities and accomplish product standardization

• Principal challenge is the establishment of A-based program funding. Currently in year 2 of the 4 year BAQS funding. Expires in 2007– Will require an “enhanced” resubmission to TB in 2005

• Program requires long-term funding stability in order to ensure success through strategic planning– important that all stakeholders identify/justify fiscal

requirements prior to submission. Opportunity for increased $$$?

Program Challenges and Next Steps• Establishment of year-round AQ forecasts

– will require support from CMC/AQRB– current approach is for regional development of “tools” to address local issues i.e. Winter

Dispersion– preferable to have a national approach to development lead by AQRB/CMC but working closely

with Regions

• New AQI likely to be implemented in 2007 (Phil Blagden)– ozone & pm - Additional pollutants (NOx/SO2)– will require reliable NO2 guidance capability (CHRONOS or other) at the operational level as

ASAP• Enhanced operational model capability at the operational level

– CHRONOS • finer resolution/ 2 runs per day• product equivalent of the GEM HiMap output

– Request from Operations for the development of a statistical model i.e. “Son of CANFIS” or MOS products

Program Challenges and Next Steps

• National Standards and National Performance Measurement– Will be important for TB submission

• NOAA/MSC Operational AQ Working Group– Meeting in Fredericton – Nov 17, 2004– Agenda being developed

• Meeting the needs of our principal stakeholders i.e. provinces through regulation development & adherence– Will play an important role wrt the AQF

• Development of a National Outreach Business Plan (Sharon Jeffers)– Will have a R &D/Model component– Input from AQRB/CMC required